Jiang Zhuoer said that he would restore full-portfolio ETH spot positions to await a breakout, and I kept staring at his last line, “from 83,000 to 84,000, a repeat of the short order.” For what it’s worth, this isn’t an “awaiting a rise”—it’s basically pressing down on the upper boundary.
Let’s first acknowledge the trade: he opened a short at 82,050 and closed at 79,480. Each unit made about $2,570 in profit—he executed the short pretty cleanly. But the point isn’t how much he made; it’s what he says in the second half.
He’s holding full-portfolio ETH spot, while also previewing that BTC will be shorted again from 83,000 to 84,000, claiming that this resistance is unlikely to be broken in the short term. Put these two actions together, and it’s not a one-way bullish bet at all—it’s a bet on the range. He’s drawn an upper limit for this move: price can rise, but don’t go above 84,000. If it really breaks higher, his spot position would be in profit while his short position would be at a loss—then the net outcome wouldn’t leave much.
So when he says “awaiting a rise,” it sounds bullish, but in reality he’s saying, “I think it won’t break out.”
Even more awkward is that he publicly revealed the setup point for the next short. When the price truly reaches 83,000 to 84,000, the whole market will know in advance that there’s a batch of shorts waiting to take over there. At that point, whether people preemptively push it down or place orders and wait will no longer be up to him alone.
The only unanswered question is: if ETH really, as he said, leads the way and takes the initiative, can that layer of resistance at 84,000 still be held back as he expects?
Let’s first acknowledge the trade: he opened a short at 82,050 and closed at 79,480. Each unit made about $2,570 in profit—he executed the short pretty cleanly. But the point isn’t how much he made; it’s what he says in the second half.
He’s holding full-portfolio ETH spot, while also previewing that BTC will be shorted again from 83,000 to 84,000, claiming that this resistance is unlikely to be broken in the short term. Put these two actions together, and it’s not a one-way bullish bet at all—it’s a bet on the range. He’s drawn an upper limit for this move: price can rise, but don’t go above 84,000. If it really breaks higher, his spot position would be in profit while his short position would be at a loss—then the net outcome wouldn’t leave much.
So when he says “awaiting a rise,” it sounds bullish, but in reality he’s saying, “I think it won’t break out.”
Even more awkward is that he publicly revealed the setup point for the next short. When the price truly reaches 83,000 to 84,000, the whole market will know in advance that there’s a batch of shorts waiting to take over there. At that point, whether people preemptively push it down or place orders and wait will no longer be up to him alone.
The only unanswered question is: if ETH really, as he said, leads the way and takes the initiative, can that layer of resistance at 84,000 still be held back as he expects?