🔥🔥Dota2 competition predict fun prediction event 【Deep Replay】: Did I make money or lose money? How was my strategy?
The biggest problem is my execution. Because my schedule got messed up, I missed some matches—especially the grand final with the fattest points. When I opened it, there were only 2 minutes left before the match started. I did a lightning-fast operation, but out of 12 selections I only locked in 3. That really hurt. However, since the grand final is a best-of-5 (3 wins), the margin for error is higher. So I decisively bought at 0.39 in Team Vison’s first match when they were in a low point, and sold at 0.55 in the third match, making 111.515u and offsetting my losses.
Leaving aside those execution issues, what do the actual data say?
1️⃣ Actual predictions made: 365 (missed 25 items)
2️⃣ Theoretical maximum wear from 365 hedges: 0.018*365*21 = 137.97,
Actual wear: 92.563u
3️⃣ Win rate: In the group stage, it’s 50/50 in 4 items—0.593; the rest 0.547. In the playoffs, it’s 50/50 in 4 items—0.596; the rest 0.542. “50/50 four items” means one match with first blood and total kills.
4️⃣ Actual rewards: 10u in group stage + 20u in playoffs
5️⃣ If my execution had been on point and I had filled the missing 25 items—what then?
Assuming I filled the missed items, the point expectation rounded in the usual way:
Group stage: 629,000+8*0.593*4000+8*5000*0.554 = 670,136, rank 123, reward 20usdt
Overall: 2,229,000+8*0.593*4000+8*5000*0.554+8*0.596*40000+1*0.542*50000 = 2,487,956, rank 51—right at the cutoff. The top 50 earn a 200u reward.
Assuming I filled the missed items, the expected points rounded down:
Group stage: 629,000+8*0.5*4000+8*5000*0.5 = 665,000, rank 141, reward 20usdt
Overall: 2,229,000+8*0.5*4000+8*5000*0.5+8*0.5*40000 = 2,425,000, rank 85, 100u reward
Worst-case wear after filling: 92.563+0.018*25*21 = 102.013
【So with correct execution, the expected reward is: 100+20-102.013 = 17.987u, or 200+20-102.013 = 117.987u. Considering there are also PP points I didn’t pay attention to, it’s still a very worthwhile deal.】
Also, this was all done brainlessly throughout. If I researched the teams a bit, it would be even better.
🦭 ༄༄ The parting line at the end for those who feel unsatisfied ༄༄ 🦭
Bind my invite code (any one), add and note it in the Binance chat for this article, and join—next time we’ll play together. In the future, this chat will upgrade into my Binance paid subscription group. Hurry up.
#PredictFun $BNB