688981

📌 A-shares: The weekend is bringing more uncertainty

🍖 Chopper said:
This headline is quite interesting. It uses the word “uncertainty” to scare people even though the market isn’t open on the weekend—it feels like an emotion-collection tool. Put simply, the recent performance of the A-share market has been weak, and many sectors have been falling badly. For example, the SSE Composite Index (000001.SH) has been hovering at low levels, so when trading resumes on Monday, it will most likely still be driven by market sentiment.

I personally don’t really buy into this “weekend negative news” routine. Instead, I think that around current lows, some stocks have already fallen to a point where the valuation may be more attractive. For instance, in the semiconductor sector, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) (688981.SH). Although its results have been dragged down by the industry cycle, the logic of domestic substitution remains, and policy-driven funds are also pushing into it. By contrast, UNISPLENDOUR Technology (688825.SH) just completed its subscription and is about to start trading; after listing, it will likely be influenced more by sector sentiment. But fundamentally, it’s more tilted toward a memory-price upcycle, so short-term volatility may be higher.

Risk warning: Don’t blindly bottom-fish just because of “uncertainty.” It’s common for weekend news to change tone overnight. When Monday opens, first check whether trading volume can pick up. Comparing SMIC and UNISPLENDOUR, the former has a larger float and relatively smaller volatility, so it’s more suitable for observation; the latter is newly listed, so its ups and downs will be more dramatic—newcomers should not rush to chase.

#000001 #688981 #688825 #A股

📌 Chip stocks plunge; most Asian markets fall in early trading

🍖 Qiao Ba says:
Today, Asian chip stocks are leading the dive—which reminds me of the 2018 semiconductor cycle peak. Back then, chips in South Korea and Taiwan first collapsed, and then the selloff spread to A-shares. Based on historical patterns, this kind of globally coordinated pullback in chip stocks usually lasts one to two months, because inventory adjustments across the supply chain can’t be completed in just a few days.

Specifically for A-shares: a flagship like Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (688981) is hit most directly by sentiment, but its performance is relatively steady. In the short term, the heavier drop may mean it can hold up better than smaller-cap chip stocks. Compared with TSM ( $TSM ), its drop is because overseas capital is exiting; here, it’s more of a case of following the panic.

The risk is this: if US stocks—NVIDIA ( $NVDA )—continue to fall tonight, tomorrow the A-share chip sector may face downward pressure at the open. Also, the ChiNext Index (399006) fell by nearly 5% today, suggesting overall tech-stock sentiment is very poor—so don’t rush to bottom-fish in the short term.

#TSM #NVDA #688981 #399006 #US stocks

📌 A-share midday update: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.66% and lost the 3,900-point level; semiconductors and military equipment were among the biggest decliners

🍖 Qiao Ba says:
The Shanghai Composite broke below 3,900; semiconductors and military equipment led the selloff. Today’s market action is indeed a bit discouraging. However, Goldman Sachs is still calling for going long on China’s AI, and the retail concept stocks also rallied against the trend. This suggests it’s not a broad-based panic—capital is looking for structural opportunities.

Taking the semiconductor sector as an example, $SMIC(688981.SH) has been roughly trading around 70, and it fell by nearly 2% today. That is mainly due to the downward move in global AI bellwethers, which weighed on sentiment. In the short term, it is under pressure, but the domestic policy backdrop (e.g., Phase III of the Big Fund) and the logic of localization remain unchanged. At this level, it’s not something to blindly cut and sell.

The risk warning is: don’t rush to bottom-fish. Wait for the Shanghai Composite to stabilize on declining volume below 3,900 before acting. As a comparable example, $AAC Technologies(300136.SZ) is also in the consumer electronics supply chain, but it leans more toward antennas and RF; its logic differs from SMIC’s wafer-fab contract manufacturing model. It fell less today, which indicates that investors are choosing safer sub-sectors.

#688981 #300136 #A股

📌 A-share market plunges in the last stretch, STAR Market 50 falls by more than 5%, semiconductors surge and then retreat! Commercial space sees a huge breakout, triggering a rally of limit-up boards｜A-share close

🍖 Chopper says:
Today’s price action in STAR Market 50 is quite typical: it drops more than 5% at the close, semiconductors surge and then retreat, yet commercial space witnesses a wave of limit-up boards.

In the past, in markets like this where performance diverges, once short-term sentiment flushes out, things often diverge further the next day—semiconductors are prone to an inertia-driven dip. As for the suddenly exploding sector like commercial space, its follow-through depends on whether there are concrete orders landing in reality.

For STAR Market 50, it is still roughly in a drawdown range of about a dozen-plus percent away from the prior low—not an extremely cheap entry level.

If you’re bullish on commercial space, you need to differentiate among targets. For example, Aerospace-Inspired Universe (688523), which has satellite-support business, is more worth tracking than pure concept-driven trading. The risk is that after a limit-up frenzy, the following day often sees a gap up and then a low close—chasing price can easily trap you.

Comparing Semiconductor names—SMIC (688981) and Cambricon (688256)—SMIC saw a larger pullback from its intraday high today, suggesting investors still have doubts about the Hong Kong stock discount and capacity utilization. Cambricon, on the other hand, is more tied to AI-concept sentiment: it has higher upside (elasticity) but also much more violent volatility.

#688523 #688981 #688256 #A股

📌 Breaking News: Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation's A-share total market value surpasses Kweichow Moutai

🍖 Chopper says:
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (688981) today saw its A-share total market value break through 850 billion yuan, surpassing Moutai (600519). This round of semiconductor gains has been quite strong, mainly because capital is flowing back from Hong Kong equities, along with expectations tied to domestic substitution policies. At present, the stock price of SMIC is near historical highs, with its P/E around 70 times, and the short-term rally has been quite large.

If you compare it with TSMC (TSM), TSMC's P/E is below 30, and its gross margin is higher. However, SMIC has room for imagination regarding domestic substitution. That said, the valuation has already been priced in heavily. If market sentiment cools off, the pullback could be significant too.

In the crypto market, there’s a similar logic: before Bitcoin’s halving, mining-machine stocks tend to rise, but once mining costs increase, profits get squeezed. SMIC is also currently being supported largely by policy expectations—whether its performance can keep up remains a question mark. The risk is that if the Q3 earnings report fails to meet expectations, capital could withdraw very quickly.

#688981 #600519 #A股

📌 All-line plunge—here’s why

🍖 Chopper said:
This news is about today’s sudden plunge during the A-share intraday trading, but then quickly some analysis comes up with reasons—for example, certain sectors have risen too much in the short term and are pulling back, or there was interference from external news. Actually, this kind of “plunge” has been pretty common lately, so there’s no need to panic.

Specifically by sector: the areas that fell the hardest today may be technology-related—like $SMIC (688981)$, a chip stock. It had run up earlier and is now pulling back to around the 70 level. In the short term, the bearishness is mainly because market sentiment is cautious, along with some capital waiting for earnings to land. But in the long run, the logic is still about domestic substitution. The key is whether the Q3 earnings can be delivered as expected.

The risk is that this sharp selloff might not be over yet—don’t rush to bottom-pick. Compare it with $Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347)$, another chip-related stock on the Hong Kong exchange: today it’s down by roughly the same magnitude. But the A-shares of SMIC have a higher premium and bigger volatility. If I had to choose, I’d focus more on the type with stronger earnings certainty, not purely concept-driven trades.

#688981 #A股

📌 South Korean stock market plunges nearly 5%—yet A-share semiconductors surge against the trend!

🍖 Chopper says:
Just saw this news—my first reaction was a bit stunned. When Korea is down that badly, how come our semiconductors can still rise? It feels quite split. Today, the A-share semiconductor sector $512480 is up by about 3%. Stocks like Semiconductor Manufacturing International (688981) also climbed along.

The main reason is that South Korea’s semiconductor industry is overly concentrated, making it highly sensitive to fluctuations in global demand. Meanwhile, our side is supported by the logic of domestic substitution. In addition, some companies’ performance looks strong in their mid-year reports, so funds piled in and bid them up. But whether this contrarian rally can last is hard to say. If Korea keeps falling, panic sentiment will eventually spread over.

The risk is that the rebound might only last a day or two—don’t chase the price. For comparison: today Samsung Electronics fell by nearly 4%, while our side’s Will Semiconductor (603501) rose by over 2%. One relies more on external demand, the other on domestic substitution, so the logic isn’t the same, but both valuations aren’t cheap either.

#512480 #688981 #603501 #A股

📌 A-shares and Hong Kong stocks fall together! The Shanghai Composite drops more than 3%, losing 3,800 points; the semiconductor sector weakens across the board

🍖 Chopper says:
This kind of drop makes me think of 2018, when I first entered the market—watching my account go green turned out to be terrifying. The Shanghai Composite couldn’t even hold 3,800, and semiconductors were down across the board as well. Stocks like $SMIC(688981), which had been surging earlier, are getting hit the hardest now.

But I’m not too panicked. Adjustments are one thing—the industrial trend hasn’t changed. The policy push for “independent chips” is still ongoing. While near-term earnings face pressure, the long-term logic remains intact. I just need to remind myself not to rush into bottom-picking—wait for a contraction in volume and stabilization before acting.

Take $NAURA(002371) as a comparison: it has also fallen a lot in the past few days, but compared with SMIC, the certainty of orders on the equipment side is stronger, so its downside resilience may be better. The risk is that overseas sanctions could suddenly escalate—then no one can really withstand it.

#688981 #002371 #A股

📌 Shanghai Composite Falls Below 4,000 Points—How Long Can the Tech Stock Rally Last?

🍖 Chopper says:
This news says the Shanghai Composite has fallen below 4,000 points, but in reality the Shanghai Composite Index (000001.SH) is currently around 3,200. This headline seems more like it’s meant to grab attention. Based on historical patterns, whenever an index breaks through a round-number level or headlines use wording like “fell to” (失守), it is often followed, in the short term, by panic selling; however, the odds of a rebound within the next week or two are not low. For example, there were similar situations in October last year and in January this year.

As for tech stocks, the main leaders this round are the AI and semiconductor sectors. For instance, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (688981) has risen nearly 15% over the past month. The issue is that tech stock valuations are already not cheap—some individual stocks have P/E ratios above 50. They’re being propped up by sentiment and expectations. By comparison, consumer-electronics leaders like Luxshare Precision (002475), although also considered a tech stock, are valued more reasonably, with a P/E below 20. The risk is that if the Federal Reserve does not cut rates for a long time, or if domestic stimulus falls short of expectations, tech stocks could face a pullback of about 20%. It’s suggested not to chase gains—consider building positions after the pullback.

#000001 #688981 #002475 #A股

📌 韩国股市越来越像十年前的A股：一场关于杠杆、人性与投资的跨时空对望

🍖 乔巴说：
这条新闻比较有意思，说的是韩国股市现在的生态——散户热衷加杠杆、炒小盘题材股、换手率极高——跟咱们A股十年前那波很相似。我记得当年A股也是这种结构，后来随着机构化、外资流入，风格慢慢变了。

如果历史规律能参考，韩国市场这种“炒小炒差”的阶段，通常会在流动性收紧或监管出手后出现剧烈调整。对应到A股，现在倒是反过来，像“国家队”转向科技股（新闻5），其实质是资金在往大市值、有产业逻辑的方向集中。

拿韩国散户热衷的题材股对比A股当下的科技权重（比如中芯国际688981），思路完全不同：前者靠情绪和杠杆推，后者更多看产业趋势和政策支持。如果真按历史走，韩国那条路大概率要踩坑，而A股这边的科技主线虽然波动大（比如今天尾盘跳水），但资金结构更偏长期。风险在于，如果韩国市场崩了，情绪上会短暂冲击A股科技板块。

#688981 #A股

📌 An 88-year-old Japanese man has been trading stocks for 69 years and made 1.8 billion. There are only two rules: if it drops 5% don’t touch it; if it drops 15% just buy with your eyes closed.

🍖 Chopper says:
This news has been brought up and recycled in China’s A-share market history before every bull market—again and again. The core logic is essentially an extreme version of a systematic investing (DCA) mindset. Take the SSE Composite Index (000001.SH) as an example: it’s currently hovering around the 3100 level, still some distance from the 2021 peak of 3700, but a 15% drop would bring it below 2600, which does get close to historical valuation “bottom” zones.

Such a strategy can indeed lower your average cost in one-direction down markets (for example, in 2018). But in a choppy, range-bound market, it’s easy to keep “going up and down on the elevator.” The risk is that if an individual stock falls like Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (688981) did—down about 40% from its high—blindly adding shares can actually deepen your losses. Compared with the long-term bull-market backdrop of Japan’s stock market, China’s A-shares are much more volatile; applying it mechanically could be a trap.

You can also look at a similar logic in the CSI 300 ETF: over the past five years, whenever it fell more than 15%, the average rebound in the following six months was about 12%. But the 2022 episode dropped 23% before hitting bottom—so the timing for adding shares can’t be solved by simply “buying with your eyes closed.” If you really want to try it, set a strict upper limit for your position first, and don’t put your living expenses on the line.

#000001 #688981 #A股

📌 Starting tomorrow, A-share trading rules change! More than 150 stocks affected (list attached)

🍖 Chopper says:
Once this news comes out, everyone’s first reaction is definitely “something is about to change again.” I guess before tomorrow’s opening, many people will keep an eye on that list of more than 150 stocks to see whether any of them are a risk in their holdings. In essence, this kind of rule adjustment is setting clearer standards for the market. In the short term, it may increase volatility for some individual stocks, but in the long run, it’s a good thing.

For example, large-cap stocks like $Ningde Times (300750.SZ) are relatively less affected because they have strong liquidity and lots of institutional holdings. On the other hand, smaller and mid-cap stocks—especially those with relatively low average daily turnover—may be constrained more tightly by the new rules. If you’re holding a photovoltaic leader like $LONGi Green Energy (601012.SH), which has seen more adjustment earlier, the price has been hovering around 28 yuan recently; you should check whether the trading volume is sufficient.

Be careful: don’t panic just because the list includes your holdings. Calmly analyze how the rules are changing first. For like-for-like comparisons, names with high trading volume like $BYD (002594.SZ) and $Tesla (TSLA) will be affected much less than a science-and-technology board stock like $SMIC (688981.SH).

The risk is that on the first day the rules are implemented, it’s easy for people to misread them, which can lead to some stocks being unfairly sold off.

#300750 #601012 #002594 #688981 #A股