VectRast

posting my weekly btc chart because the technical picture and the macro story are lining up almost perfectly right now

price at 79,891 up 2.84% this week sitting right between two zones that matter

75 to 77k below that's old resistance from late 2024 now acting as support this week's pullbacks have respected it clean

85 to 89k above that's the ceiling from last year's distribution top before the crash to 58k this week's high tagged 82,300 right at the edge of it before rejecting back under 80k

here's why that rejection makes sense fundamentally

fed chair warsh's hawkish jackson hole speech pushed september rate hike odds as high as 70% before cooling back down to 58 to 66% depending which desk you're reading

that's still a real possibility of the first rate hike since 2023 landing september 16

friday's jobs report and the september 11 cpi print are the two data points deciding which way that goes

a hike is a genuine headwind for btc higher rates make holding a non yielding asset more expensive and strengthen the dollar against everything

a hold or a soft print clears the path back toward that 85k zone with real conviction

worth also flagging binance reserves just hit 687,000 btc the highest level all year some read that as quiet distribution building under the rally not accumulation

my read

we're in the exact zone where technicals and fundamentals are both undecided at the same time

hold 76k and clear september 16 without a hike 85k becomes realistic fast

lose 76k or get a hawkish surprise on the 16th and the mid 70s to low 70s comes back into play

not financial advice just how the chart and the calendar are both saying the same thing right now wait for confirmation not conviction

$BTC

#BTCReaches$80000 #ZECHitsANewAllTimeHigh #RussiaUkraine72-hourCeasefire

Craziest thing I've seen in a while:
• Someone buys $4M worth of BONK
• Then posts a DAO proposal asking to transfer $20M in BONK to themselves
• Waits 7 days without anyone noticing
• Then votes "yes" with their own BONK holdings, and the proposal passes
• $20M is transferred to them

And now the Bonk team has suddenly realized they lost $20M.
This wasn't even a hack. The proposal passed because no
$BONK holders checked the governance forum.
Insane to see the current state of DAOs.

the trendline broke, but the real test is still ahead

posting my weekly chart because the exact resistance we've tracked for weeks just gave way

btc at 81,354 up 5.56% this week clean break above the descending trendline that's capped every single bounce since the crash first real close above it not just a wick

what triggered it new cftc and sec rulemaking reignited the regulatory tailwind congress couldn't deliver after the clarity act failed strategy stock jumped 16% coinbase jumped 12% same day real capital reacting to real regulatory movement

fear and greed at 71 back in greed daily emas fully stacked bullish price above the 20 50 and 200 all at once

but here's what matters more than the trendline itself remember the zone we've marked on this chart for over a month 85 to 89k that's the real ceiling from last year's distribution top before the crash breaking a trendline is a good sign but it's not the same as clearing the actual resistance that's rejected every prior attempt to get back above 80 to 82k

immediate resistance sits at 81,711 clear that with volume and this trendline break gets its first real confirmation support at 80,815 lose it and expect a pullback toward the 20 ema near 77,633 not a reversal of the bigger trend just a normal retest

but even clearing 81,711 only gets us back into the same fight we've had for a month the real resolution is still 85 to 89k that's the level that actually changes the story not just today's breakout

this is progress not confirmation watching if it can build on this or if it's another attempt that stalls out right where the last few did

$BTC

#BOJRaisesRatesTo31YearHigh #BTCBreaks80K #SOLJumpsAbout10%

the pullback we flagged just happened

posting the update because this is exactly the level we called out

zec touched 1,595 this week fresh all time run then pulled back hard sitting at 1,479 down 5.27% today

remember what we said after it cleared 1,389 the extension was real and the pullback risk didn't disappear just because paradigm's backing pushed price higher this is that pullback playing out

technical picture right now price still sitting way above its own moving averages 20 ema near 1,077 50 ema near 866 200 ema near 570 the stretch is still massive even after this drop that tells you the correction isn't necessarily done just because it happened once

zoom out on the daily chart and the structure is still intact this is the first real red candle after a vertical month long move not a breakdown of the trend itself

key level now 1,325 to 1,256 that's the prior breakout zone turned support hold that and the bigger trend stays alive lose it with real volume and this opens a deeper retrace back toward 1,150 to 1,200

fundamentals haven't changed nu7 upgrade passed paradigm's still in etf inflows still coming in the pullback is healthy digestion after an extreme move not a reversal of the thesis unless 1,256 actually breaks

$ZEC

update: $1,389 didn't hold as resistance, this is stronger than expected

quick update zec already cleared the 1,389 level we were watching now trading between 1,461 and 1,497 depending on source 7 day high already tagged near 1,502

that changes the read the first line in the sand for a pullback just got taken out with real force paradigm's disclosure clearly added more staying power than a pure short squeeze would have

new levels to watch now

1,500 is the immediate test clear it with volume and this is genuine price discovery no historical resistance above to slow it down

lose 1,389 again on a retest and that's when the overextension thesis comes back into play support below that still sits at 1,294 then 1,150

still respecting the extension risk price is stretched far above its short term averages regardless of the catalyst but the catalyst just proved stronger than expected

not flipping the thesis just updating it with what the chart is actually saying right now

$ZEC

#BitcoinSurpasses$77000 #ParadigmDisclosesZECHolding

this move has short squeeze written all over it

zec at 1,471 up nearly 20% today fresh territory not seen since 2016

but look closer this is trading 20 to 25% above its own short term averages a genuinely extreme extension

a large 26 million dollar short just got forced toward liquidation another 1 million short already got fully wiped overnight

that's not organic buying that's forced covering and forced covering runs out fast once the shorts are gone the artificial bid disappears with them

watch 1,389 first close back below that and the squeeze thesis starts cracking

break 1,294 with volume and this likely accelerates back toward 1,150 to 1,200 the old resistance zone

fundamentals aren't fake here nu7 upgrade passed 99% ledger integration real etf inflows but even real fundamentals don't stop a move this stretched from correcting hard

not calling a top just calling the risk exactly what it is

$ZEC

#ParadigmDisclosesZECHolding #BitcoinSurpasses$77000

Deutsche Bank just entered the custody game

quiet institutional story landing the same day as all this fed noise

deutsche bank a bank with a 1.7 trillion dollar balance sheet just launched institutional digital asset custody services and is preparing for a mica license specifically to enter the bitcoin and ether custody market

this is the same pattern we've tracked all month traditional finance doesn't wait for perfect regulatory clarity in the us it builds custody infrastructure in parallel wherever the rules are clearer

worth remembering next time someone says legacy banks are staying away from crypto they're not staying away they're just building quietly instead of tweeting about it

$BTC
$ETH

the round-trip that says more than the candle

posting my weekly chart btc at 76,374 down 0.61% still fighting that same descending trendline that's capped every bounce since the 2025 top

here's what actually happened wednesday the fed delivered its first hike since 2023 12 to 0 unanimous vote 25 basis points to 3.75 to 4%

btc spiked to 76,500 within 5 minutes of the announcement then gave the entire move back within half an hour

that round trip tells you more than either candle alone the initial pop was relief that the hike wasn't worse the reversal was the market realizing a hike is still a hike no matter how well it was priced in

worth flagging something new record us diesel prices are now complicating the outlook for both btc and gold at the same time energy costs feeding into inflation isn't just an oil and iran story anymore it's broadening

price still sitting right on that trendline same fight as before clear it with real volume and the range starts opening up toward 80k plus reject here again and 72 to 74k comes back into focus

still the same resolution we've been waiting on for weeks just with one more hike now already behind us

$BTC

#ElSalvadorBTCHoldingsRiseTo7777 #FedSEPProjects2026RateAt4.1%

breakout confirmed, whale withdraws $17.9M, $1,500 now in focus

zec cleared 1,300 extending one of the sharpest rallies this market's seen all month

fresh whale activity adding fuel a large holder just withdrew 15,300 zec worth about 17.92 million dollars from binance, okx and kraken in a single move

worth being precise about what that actually means large exchange withdrawals reduce available supply on order books but they don't automatically confirm buying intent this could be accumulation custody management or repositioning what the wallet does next is what actually tells the story

technical structure the old breakout zone near 1,200 to 1,250 has now flipped into the key support level to watch on any pullback

hold that zone and bulls can push for the recent high near 1,450 with a real shot at extending toward 1,500

lose 1,200 on a daily close and that signals real profit taking a sign the rally needs more consolidation before another leg up

this is exactly the kind of move that needs a level to defend not just excitement to keep climbing watching 1,200 to 1,250 closely on any retrace

$ZEC

#FedSEPProjects2026RateAt4.1% #FedHikes25BpsUSStocksClose

the Fed hiked and crypto did the opposite of what it's supposed to do

textbook says higher rates pull money out of risk assets

crypto just ignored the textbook completely

fed raised rates 25 basis points yesterday first hike since july 2023 and btc climbed anyway holding near 76,300 even as stocks slipped on the same news

two readings on why either the hike was so thoroughly priced in that there was nothing left to sell or crypto buyers are treating a hiking cycle as a dollar debasement bet rather than a reason to de risk

honest answer probably both at once

worth remembering the real story isn't yesterday's move it's the fed's own dot plot 16 of 18 officials now expect at least one more hike this year that's up from just 8 officials in june who expected zero hikes for the entire year that's a genuine shift in how the fed sees inflation risk not just one decision

$BTC

#FedHikes25BpsUSStocksClose #FedSEPProjects2026RateAt4.1%

quick track record check zec at 1,349 today touched 1,398 fresh ath

every level we flagged along the way has actually held 1,050 held during the first pullback 1,050 to 1,250 again before this latest leg every single test resolved bullish exactly as called

today's the clearest proof yet fed just hiked rates for the first time since 2023 btc spiked and gave it back in 30 minutes zec ran straight to 1,383 while everything else sold off that's real decoupling not luck

fresh catalyst behind it too governance vote just passed with 99% support cutting block confirmation time from 75 seconds to 25 nu7 upgrade delivering real utility not just hype

worth the honest counterweight f2pool's own co founder is calling this a narrative short squeeze not fundamentals pointing at low actual shielded transaction usage that's a real risk not fud

expected next hold above 1,250 and 1,500 becomes realistic fast lose it with volume and 1,100 then 1,000 is the retracement zone

still the strongest chart in the market right now

$ZEC

#FedHikes25BpsUSStocksClose #FedSEPProjects2026RateAt4.1%

If $BTC drops below 75k, we might see BTC touching 70-72k support level

and likewise for $SOL we might see it at 82-83 support zone if it happens

Wait for FOMC meeting results before entering on any trade.

#FedRateWatch #BitcoinFalls4% #BitcoinSlidesTo$76000

up 8.75% today and the catalysts keep stacking

posting my daily zec chart 1,207.56 up 8.75% right as the rest of the market reels from the clarity act failing and the fed decision landing today

zec genuinely does not care today

spot etf just closed a 3 week inflow streak totaling 358.6 million dollars up 118% total assets under management now sitting at 663.2 million across over 553,000 zec real sustained institutional demand not a one time pop

zcash labs also signed an 80,000 dollar deal with ledger to bring self custody support for their new ironwood privacy pool directly onto hardware wallets

polymarket odds of zec hitting 1,400 by year end just jumped to 67% up 17 points in a short stretch

worth being straight about the real risk here though the eu's new aml rules will ban licensed exchanges from servicing privacy coins starting july 2027 that's not next week that's a real structural clock ticking under this entire rally that nobody's pricing in yet

price action still respecting the ascending trendline reclaimed it cleanly holding above every ema on the chart right now

different asset different day different macro reaction entirely from what btc just went through

$ZEC

#FedRateWatch #BitcoinFalls4% #MSTRTradingVolumeSurpassesMorganStanley

the vote failed, the Fed decides today, and dominance is stuck at the exact same wall

posting both charts because today is the day everything we've tracked for weeks either confirms or breaks

btc at 75,984 down 1.12% this week the clarity act just failed in the senate 49 to 50 one vote the regulatory clarity everyone's been pricing in for a month just got denied

btc dropped toward 75,700 on the news fear and greed collapsed from 69 greed to 51 neutral in a single day that's not a small mood shift that's the market genuinely recalibrating overnight

and now the fed decides today 2pm et a 25 basis point hike is basically priced in the real variable same as always is the language that comes with it

your btc chart shows exactly why this matters that descending trendline has capped every single bounce since the crash price is sitting right on it right now with the two biggest catalysts of the month landing in the same 24 hours

dominance sitting at 59.50% almost dead center in the same range it's held for over a year 57 to 58% support 60 to 62% resistance still completely undecided which way capital rotates once the dust settles

hold 76k through the fed statement and this range holds intact
lose it with volume and 72 to 74k becomes the real test next

one failed vote and one rate decision in the same day this is the resolution we've been building toward for weeks watching 2pm et closer than anything else today

$BTC

#BitcoinFalls4% #FedRateWatch #EthereumFallsBelow$2400

FOMC week is here, and the hike is basically priced in already.

August core CPI came in at 0.3% monthly. That single number pushed hike odds for Wednesday to 87-92% across Kalshi and Polymarket, up from around 50% just weeks ago. Goldman and JPMorgan both flipped their forecasts to match. This isn't a coin flip anymore.

So if the hike is already expected, why does Wednesday still matter?

Because the market isn't reacting to the decision, it's reacting to the words that come with it. A hike framed as a one time adjustment, markets shrug it off. A hike paired with "more work to do" language, that's when BTC, tech stocks, and even gold all feel real pressure together.

How I'm actually playing it, no leverage into the announcement, watching BTC's reaction in the first 30 minutes rather than the headline itself, and treating gold's move as the tell, if gold spikes hard on the news itself, that's real fear building under a calm surface.

One hike doesn't kill a bull market. One hawkish sentence about more hikes coming absolutely can start a real correction. Wednesday tells us which one we're getting.

How are you positioning into this, riding it, sitting in cash, or already hedged?

$BTC
$ETH

#fedratewatch #FedRateWatch #BitcoinSlidesTo$76000

btc at 76,928 basically flat this week sitting right on top of the descending trendline that's capped every bounce since the 2025 top

70 to 72k as a liquidity grab before resuming the rally is a real scenario worth respecting that zone lines up with the gray support shelf on the chart and would be a classic sweep before reversal

but the more immediate fight is happening right where price sits now this trendline has rejected price multiple times already a clean break and hold above it is what actually confirms continuation not just a wick through

structurally still bullish above 76k per today's cross market read but buyers need to clear this trendline first before either scenario plays out with real conviction

$BTC

#BitcoinReboundsTo$79K

zec at 1,142 up 7.53% this week after touching 1,225

this started as an etf story now it's stacked three catalysts deep

grayscale's zec fund pulled in 179 million in just 11 days almost 700 million in assets now

zcash mining is running about 4x more profitable than bitcoin per grayscale's own research that's pulling in real hash power network security up 2.5x this year

swissborg just added zec to their platform too more retail access without needing a crypto exchange

worth being honest there was a private pool scare this week no actual exploit but a reminder privacy chains are genuinely harder to audit that's real risk not fud

a whale also just moved 13.65 million in zec to a fresh wallet after pulling it off major exchanges watching what that wallet does next

price is stretched way above its averages right now so the pullback risk is real if momentum stalls hold above 1,050 and this stays a real story

$ZEC

XRP's real test isn't today, it's what happens after

posting my weekly xrp chart at 1.3891 up 3.57% this week right at the exact catalyst everyone's been building up to

here's the nuance most posts are skipping today's vote at 2.15pm et is not the clarity act passing it's a cloture vote just deciding whether the senate even opens debate on the bill

trump agreed september 13 to about 80% of the ethics restrictions democrats had been demanding and xrp jumped 3.9% on that concession alone moving three times harder than btc did on the same news

sounds bullish until you check the actual odds one prediction market had 2026 passage sitting at just 19.5% as of last month democratic aides are still calling the ethics fight the biggest stumbling block despite trump's concession

so the realistic read today's vote passing cloture doesn't mean clarity happens this year it just means the debate starts the window between today and the end of september is the real make or break period not this single afternoon

standard chartered still has a 10 dollar xrp target tied partly to this bill eventually passing that's the long term case worth remembering even if today's vote is messier than the headline makes it sound

watching 2.15pm et closely but treating it as step one not the finish line

$XRP

sol at 101.73 up 2.45% today holding clean in the 97.50 to 102 zone we flagged as the real test after the triangle breakout

worth noting sol etfs just posted 9 straight days of inflows totaling 644 million dollars real institutional demand still showing up even during this chop

price isn't running yet but it's not breaking down either exactly what healthy consolidation after a breakout is supposed to look like

watching if it holds through tomorrow's clarity act vote and thursday's fed decision

$SOL

posting my weekly chart btc at 77,850 up 1.31% this week still boxed in the same 75 to 78k support 85 to 89k resistance range we've tracked for a month now

fed hike odds have climbed to around 90% as of this weekend up from 87% just two days ago the market has basically stopped debating if and moved to debating how the fed frames it afterward

tomorrow the senate votes on the clarity act same day arbitrum has a 90 million token unlock landing regulatory clarity and fresh sell pressure hitting the market on the exact same day

everything's quiet right now because everyone's waiting on the same three days

$BTC

#BitcoinCrosses$78000