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Fed Week: Will Rates Move Crypto?
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve this week. The FOMC statement is due on October 28 at 14:00 New York time, and the crypto market is already a little nervous.
Bitcoin is trading around $80K after a shaky few days. ETF outflows and heavy liquidations have pushed many traders to the sidelines. Most people are simply waiting to see what the Fed says before they make their next move.
Why does this matter? Interest rate decisions shape the mood of every market. Higher rates usually put pressure on risky assets like crypto. Lower rates often bring more liquidity and confidence. Even if the Fed holds rates, the tone of the statement can still surprise the market.
My view: expect sharp moves around the announcement. Keep your leverage low and your risk small, because price can swing fast in both directions.
Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
#FOMC #Fed #interestrates #bitcoin #CryptoNews
$BTC
What is your expectation for the Fed's decision?
Fed Week: Will Rates Move Crypto?
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve this week. The FOMC statement is due on October 28 at 14:00 New York time, and the crypto market is already a little nervous.
Bitcoin is trading around $80K after a shaky few days. ETF outflows and heavy liquidations have pushed many traders to the sidelines. Most people are simply waiting to see what the Fed says before they make their next move.
Why does this matter? Interest rate decisions shape the mood of every market. Higher rates usually put pressure on risky assets like crypto. Lower rates often bring more liquidity and confidence. Even if the Fed holds rates, the tone of the statement can still surprise the market.
My view: expect sharp moves around the announcement. Keep your leverage low and your risk small, because price can swing fast in both directions.
Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
#FOMC #Fed #interestrates #bitcoin #CryptoNews
$BTC
What is your expectation for the Fed's decision?
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve this week. The FOMC statement is due on October 28 at 14:00 New York time, and the crypto market is already a little nervous.
Bitcoin is trading around $80K after a shaky few days. ETF outflows and heavy liquidations have pushed many traders to the sidelines. Most people are simply waiting to see what the Fed says before they make their next move.
Why does this matter? Interest rate decisions shape the mood of every market. Higher rates usually put pressure on risky assets like crypto. Lower rates often bring more liquidity and confidence. Even if the Fed holds rates, the tone of the statement can still surprise the market.
My view: expect sharp moves around the announcement. Keep your leverage low and your risk small, because price can swing fast in both directions.
Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
#FOMC #Fed #interestrates #bitcoin #CryptoNews
$BTC
What is your expectation for the Fed's decision?
Rate will go higher
Rate will remain unchanged
Rate will decrease
2 day(s) left
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🚨 KEVIN WARSH FACES A NIGHTMARE SCENARIO AHEAD OF THE FOMC MEETING!$APR
The Fed is heading into Wednesday’s meeting with markets already on edge and there may be no easy way out.$SKYAI
🔥 Inflation is heating up. CPI and PPI have surprised to the upside, while rising energy prices linked to the U.S.-Iran conflict are adding more pressure.$CAP
📉 At the same time, the economy is showing cracks. Housing remains under pressure, borrowing costs are elevated, and companies are cutting jobs.
That leaves the Fed trapped between two major risks: persistent inflation and a weakening economy.
And every possible move comes with consequences:
🔴 A hawkish Fed: Higher-rate expectations could pressure stocks and crypto.
🟡 A dovish surprise: Investors may worry that the Fed is easing too soon, potentially pushing bond yields higher.
⚠️ No clear direction: Uncertainty could fuel volatility across global markets.
The real danger is that inflation stays elevated while economic growth slows a combination known as stagflation.
For Bitcoin, equities, and other risk assets, the Fed’s tone could matter just as much as its actual decision.
One thing is clear: markets will be listening closely to every word. A single unexpected signal could trigger a sharp reaction across financial markets.
👀 Will the Fed calm the markets or unleash another wave of volatility?
#fomc #FederalReserve #MacroEconomics #USQ3GDPAndSeptemberPCEDueNextWeek
🚨 KEVIN WARSH FACES A NIGHTMARE SCENARIO AHEAD OF THE FOMC MEETING!$APR
The Fed is heading into Wednesday’s meeting with markets already on edge and there may be no easy way out.$SKYAI
🔥 Inflation is heating up. CPI and PPI have surprised to the upside, while rising energy prices linked to the U.S.-Iran conflict are adding more pressure.$CAP
📉 At the same time, the economy is showing cracks. Housing remains under pressure, borrowing costs are elevated, and companies are cutting jobs.
That leaves the Fed trapped between two major risks: persistent inflation and a weakening economy.
And every possible move comes with consequences:
🔴 A hawkish Fed: Higher-rate expectations could pressure stocks and crypto.
🟡 A dovish surprise: Investors may worry that the Fed is easing too soon, potentially pushing bond yields higher.
⚠️ No clear direction: Uncertainty could fuel volatility across global markets.
The real danger is that inflation stays elevated while economic growth slows a combination known as stagflation.
For Bitcoin, equities, and other risk assets, the Fed’s tone could matter just as much as its actual decision.
One thing is clear: markets will be listening closely to every word. A single unexpected signal could trigger a sharp reaction across financial markets.
👀 Will the Fed calm the markets or unleash another wave of volatility?
#fomc #FederalReserve #MacroEconomics #USQ3GDPAndSeptemberPCEDueNextWeek
The Fed is heading into Wednesday’s meeting with markets already on edge and there may be no easy way out.$SKYAI
🔥 Inflation is heating up. CPI and PPI have surprised to the upside, while rising energy prices linked to the U.S.-Iran conflict are adding more pressure.$CAP
📉 At the same time, the economy is showing cracks. Housing remains under pressure, borrowing costs are elevated, and companies are cutting jobs.
That leaves the Fed trapped between two major risks: persistent inflation and a weakening economy.
And every possible move comes with consequences:
🔴 A hawkish Fed: Higher-rate expectations could pressure stocks and crypto.
🟡 A dovish surprise: Investors may worry that the Fed is easing too soon, potentially pushing bond yields higher.
⚠️ No clear direction: Uncertainty could fuel volatility across global markets.
The real danger is that inflation stays elevated while economic growth slows a combination known as stagflation.
For Bitcoin, equities, and other risk assets, the Fed’s tone could matter just as much as its actual decision.
One thing is clear: markets will be listening closely to every word. A single unexpected signal could trigger a sharp reaction across financial markets.
👀 Will the Fed calm the markets or unleash another wave of volatility?
#fomc #FederalReserve #MacroEconomics #USQ3GDPAndSeptemberPCEDueNextWeek
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Bullish
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🚨 FOMC COUNTDOWN: THE MARKET IS ON EDGE.
Inflation. Rising oil. A fragile labor market.
Three forces. One Fed decision. Zero room for complacency.
RATE CUT: Bullish explosion?
RATE HOLD: Volatility incoming?
RATE HIKE: Bloodbath risk?
The next move could shake the entire market.
My team and I are tracking every signal. Stay sharp. Stay ready. The real volatility may be just beginning.
#FOMC #Bitcoin
🚨 FOMC COUNTDOWN: THE MARKET IS ON EDGE.
Inflation. Rising oil. A fragile labor market.
Three forces. One Fed decision. Zero room for complacency.
RATE CUT: Bullish explosion?
RATE HOLD: Volatility incoming?
RATE HIKE: Bloodbath risk?
The next move could shake the entire market.
My team and I are tracking every signal. Stay sharp. Stay ready. The real volatility may be just beginning.
#FOMC #Bitcoin
Inflation. Rising oil. A fragile labor market.
Three forces. One Fed decision. Zero room for complacency.
RATE CUT: Bullish explosion?
RATE HOLD: Volatility incoming?
RATE HIKE: Bloodbath risk?
The next move could shake the entire market.
My team and I are tracking every signal. Stay sharp. Stay ready. The real volatility may be just beginning.
#FOMC #Bitcoin
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#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek
🇺🇸 Fed Hold Odds Climb to 95%. December Is the Real Fight
📅 The Fed meets Oct 27-28, with the decision Wednesday at 2 PM ET
📊 Kalshi prices a hold at 94% and Polymarket at 95.5%, up from about 88% a week ago
📈 A December 9 hike is still priced near 74-76%
🏦 Rates sit at 3.75-4.00% after September's 25bp hike, in Warsh's 4th meeting as Chair
🗣️ Warsh said Friday "I don't prejudge meetings," and hike odds fell after the speech
⚠️ Watch the December guidance and any dissents; three officials dissented for a hike in July
What it means for crypto: a hold is mostly priced in, so a hawkish tone on December could weigh on risk assets, while a softer one could ease pressure. Bitcoin is near $80.3K, flat on the day.
Will Warsh keep December on the table? 👇
$BTC $ETH
#CryptoNews #Fed #FOMC #MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek
🇺🇸 Fed Hold Odds Climb to 95%. December Is the Real Fight
📅 The Fed meets Oct 27-28, with the decision Wednesday at 2 PM ET
📊 Kalshi prices a hold at 94% and Polymarket at 95.5%, up from about 88% a week ago
📈 A December 9 hike is still priced near 74-76%
🏦 Rates sit at 3.75-4.00% after September's 25bp hike, in Warsh's 4th meeting as Chair
🗣️ Warsh said Friday "I don't prejudge meetings," and hike odds fell after the speech
⚠️ Watch the December guidance and any dissents; three officials dissented for a hike in July
What it means for crypto: a hold is mostly priced in, so a hawkish tone on December could weigh on risk assets, while a softer one could ease pressure. Bitcoin is near $80.3K, flat on the day.
Will Warsh keep December on the table? 👇
$BTC $ETH
#CryptoNews #Fed #FOMC #MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek
🇺🇸 Fed Hold Odds Climb to 95%. December Is the Real Fight
📅 The Fed meets Oct 27-28, with the decision Wednesday at 2 PM ET
📊 Kalshi prices a hold at 94% and Polymarket at 95.5%, up from about 88% a week ago
📈 A December 9 hike is still priced near 74-76%
🏦 Rates sit at 3.75-4.00% after September's 25bp hike, in Warsh's 4th meeting as Chair
🗣️ Warsh said Friday "I don't prejudge meetings," and hike odds fell after the speech
⚠️ Watch the December guidance and any dissents; three officials dissented for a hike in July
What it means for crypto: a hold is mostly priced in, so a hawkish tone on December could weigh on risk assets, while a softer one could ease pressure. Bitcoin is near $80.3K, flat on the day.
Will Warsh keep December on the table? 👇
$BTC $ETH
#CryptoNews #Fed #FOMC #MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek
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🚨 $BTC PREPARES FOR FOMC FURY – RATE CUT OR HIKES? 📈
📊 The clock’s ticking – 50 hours until the Fed’s verdict. A clean cut could ignite a fresh bullish surge, flipping the order book and flushing liquidity to the upside. ⚡ Buyers are already lining up near key resistance, eyes locked on the breakout candle.
🦈 If the Fed holds steady, expect a jittery range as the market digests nuance; a hike would yank risk assets into a swift sell‑off, letting whales skim the dip. Forward guidance will be the real catalyst. 💬 Which scenario are you hedging for? 👇
⚠️ Not financial advice. Always manage your risk. 🛡️
🏷️ #BTC #FOMC #RateDecision #Crypto
🔥 💎
🚨 $BTC PREPARES FOR FOMC FURY – RATE CUT OR HIKES? 📈
📊 The clock’s ticking – 50 hours until the Fed’s verdict. A clean cut could ignite a fresh bullish surge, flipping the order book and flushing liquidity to the upside. ⚡ Buyers are already lining up near key resistance, eyes locked on the breakout candle.
🦈 If the Fed holds steady, expect a jittery range as the market digests nuance; a hike would yank risk assets into a swift sell‑off, letting whales skim the dip. Forward guidance will be the real catalyst. 💬 Which scenario are you hedging for? 👇
⚠️ Not financial advice. Always manage your risk. 🛡️
🏷️ #BTC #FOMC #RateDecision #Crypto
🔥 💎
📊 The clock’s ticking – 50 hours until the Fed’s verdict. A clean cut could ignite a fresh bullish surge, flipping the order book and flushing liquidity to the upside. ⚡ Buyers are already lining up near key resistance, eyes locked on the breakout candle.
🦈 If the Fed holds steady, expect a jittery range as the market digests nuance; a hike would yank risk assets into a swift sell‑off, letting whales skim the dip. Forward guidance will be the real catalyst. 💬 Which scenario are you hedging for? 👇
⚠️ Not financial advice. Always manage your risk. 🛡️
🏷️ #BTC #FOMC #RateDecision #Crypto
🔥 💎
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Bitcoin Holds $80,000: What Beginners Need to Know Before the Fed MeetingBitcoin is sitting just above $80,000 today, down slightly over the past 24 hours but still holding a critical level . The market feels quiet, but that quiet is deceptive. A major event is coming.
Why $80,000 Matters
The $80,000 to $81,500 range is where U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate holders have their average cost basis . That makes it a psychological battleground. If Bitcoin holds here, the structure remains intact. If it breaks, the next major support sits around $75,000 .
Selling pressure has eased. Whales holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have shifted from selling to accumulation. Long-term holders have slowed their selling. Profit-taking has cooled . That is why Bitcoin is not crashing further.
But Demand Is Still Weak
Here is the problem nobody wants to admit. Fresh buyers are not showing up with conviction.
Spot demand remains negative. The Coinbase Premium Index is below zero, meaning U.S. buying is soft. Bitcoin ETFs saw roughly $635 million in net outflows on October 22, the biggest single-day loss since June . Stablecoin reserves on exchanges are falling, which means less dry powder available to buy .
Bitcoin is holding because sellers are tired, not because buyers are aggressive.
The Big Event: October 28
The Federal Reserve meets on October 27-28, with the rate decision announced Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET . Markets currently price less than a 10% chance of a rate hike this month .
The decision itself may not move markets much. What matters is the tone. If the Fed sounds hawkish about future hikes, Bitcoin could break below $80,000. If the tone is softer, a relief rally could follow.
The Fear & Greed Index sits at 54, perfectly neutral . The market is waiting.
What Beginners Should Do
Do not guess the Fed. Do not trade on headlines. Watch the $80,000 level. If it holds through Wednesday, the market is telling you something. If it breaks, be patient and watch $75,000.
Patience beats prediction. Every time.
#Bitcoin #CryptoBeginner #BinanceSquare #FOMC #CryptoMarket
Bitcoin Holds $80,000: What Beginners Need to Know Before the Fed Meeting
Bitcoin is sitting just above $80,000 today, down slightly over the past 24 hours but still holding a critical level . The market feels quiet, but that quiet is deceptive. A major event is coming.
Why $80,000 Matters
The $80,000 to $81,500 range is where U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate holders have their average cost basis . That makes it a psychological battleground. If Bitcoin holds here, the structure remains intact. If it breaks, the next major support sits around $75,000 .
Selling pressure has eased. Whales holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have shifted from selling to accumulation. Long-term holders have slowed their selling. Profit-taking has cooled . That is why Bitcoin is not crashing further.
But Demand Is Still Weak
Here is the problem nobody wants to admit. Fresh buyers are not showing up with conviction.
Spot demand remains negative. The Coinbase Premium Index is below zero, meaning U.S. buying is soft. Bitcoin ETFs saw roughly $635 million in net outflows on October 22, the biggest single-day loss since June . Stablecoin reserves on exchanges are falling, which means less dry powder available to buy .
Bitcoin is holding because sellers are tired, not because buyers are aggressive.
The Big Event: October 28
The Federal Reserve meets on October 27-28, with the rate decision announced Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET . Markets currently price less than a 10% chance of a rate hike this month .
The decision itself may not move markets much. What matters is the tone. If the Fed sounds hawkish about future hikes, Bitcoin could break below $80,000. If the tone is softer, a relief rally could follow.
The Fear & Greed Index sits at 54, perfectly neutral . The market is waiting.
What Beginners Should Do
Do not guess the Fed. Do not trade on headlines. Watch the $80,000 level. If it holds through Wednesday, the market is telling you something. If it breaks, be patient and watch $75,000.
Patience beats prediction. Every time.
#Bitcoin #CryptoBeginner #BinanceSquare #FOMC #CryptoMarket
Why $80,000 Matters
The $80,000 to $81,500 range is where U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate holders have their average cost basis . That makes it a psychological battleground. If Bitcoin holds here, the structure remains intact. If it breaks, the next major support sits around $75,000 .
Selling pressure has eased. Whales holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have shifted from selling to accumulation. Long-term holders have slowed their selling. Profit-taking has cooled . That is why Bitcoin is not crashing further.
But Demand Is Still Weak
Here is the problem nobody wants to admit. Fresh buyers are not showing up with conviction.
Spot demand remains negative. The Coinbase Premium Index is below zero, meaning U.S. buying is soft. Bitcoin ETFs saw roughly $635 million in net outflows on October 22, the biggest single-day loss since June . Stablecoin reserves on exchanges are falling, which means less dry powder available to buy .
Bitcoin is holding because sellers are tired, not because buyers are aggressive.
The Big Event: October 28
The Federal Reserve meets on October 27-28, with the rate decision announced Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET . Markets currently price less than a 10% chance of a rate hike this month .
The decision itself may not move markets much. What matters is the tone. If the Fed sounds hawkish about future hikes, Bitcoin could break below $80,000. If the tone is softer, a relief rally could follow.
The Fear & Greed Index sits at 54, perfectly neutral . The market is waiting.
What Beginners Should Do
Do not guess the Fed. Do not trade on headlines. Watch the $80,000 level. If it holds through Wednesday, the market is telling you something. If it breaks, be patient and watch $75,000.
Patience beats prediction. Every time.
#Bitcoin #CryptoBeginner #BinanceSquare #FOMC #CryptoMarket
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#marketspricejust10%chanceoffedhikenextweek
10% hike odds for Oct 28 isn’t the trade. December is. 🏦
Timeline (CME FedWatch)
• Oct 14 (hot CPI): ~52–54%
• A week ago: ~15.5%
• Oct 23: ~10% (hold at 3.75–4.00% ~90%)
December is different ⚠️
• Hike odds by December: roughly 67–90% depending on source and date
• Reuters poll (Oct 16–20): 94 of 100 economists expect a hold, all 100 a hike by December
• Hold ≠ dovish: Pimco expects a hold with a clear tightening bias
The calendar
• Oct 28, 2 pm ET: FOMC + Warsh press conference
• Oct 29, 8:30 am ET: Q3 GDP and September PCE (core expected +0.3%)
Crypto read
BTC ~$81.2–81.6K, pressured by $116 Brent and a 10Y near 5%. A hold is priced; a hot PCE or hawkish guidance would hit December odds first, crypto second.
My read: I’m not trading “no hike = rally”. I’m watching Warsh’s wording and Thursday’s PCE.
Which matters more for BTC: Wednesday’s decision or Thursday’s PCE? 👇
Not financial advice. DYOR.
$BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
$ETH
{future}(ETHUSDT)
$XAUT
{future}(XAUTUSDT)
#FOMC #FederalReserve #Bitcoin
#marketspricejust10%chanceoffedhikenextweek
10% hike odds for Oct 28 isn’t the trade. December is. 🏦
Timeline (CME FedWatch)
• Oct 14 (hot CPI): ~52–54%
• A week ago: ~15.5%
• Oct 23: ~10% (hold at 3.75–4.00% ~90%)
December is different ⚠️
• Hike odds by December: roughly 67–90% depending on source and date
• Reuters poll (Oct 16–20): 94 of 100 economists expect a hold, all 100 a hike by December
• Hold ≠ dovish: Pimco expects a hold with a clear tightening bias
The calendar
• Oct 28, 2 pm ET: FOMC + Warsh press conference
• Oct 29, 8:30 am ET: Q3 GDP and September PCE (core expected +0.3%)
Crypto read
BTC ~$81.2–81.6K, pressured by $116 Brent and a 10Y near 5%. A hold is priced; a hot PCE or hawkish guidance would hit December odds first, crypto second.
My read: I’m not trading “no hike = rally”. I’m watching Warsh’s wording and Thursday’s PCE.
Which matters more for BTC: Wednesday’s decision or Thursday’s PCE? 👇
Not financial advice. DYOR.
$BTC
$ETH
$XAUT
#FOMC #FederalReserve #Bitcoin
10% hike odds for Oct 28 isn’t the trade. December is. 🏦
Timeline (CME FedWatch)
• Oct 14 (hot CPI): ~52–54%
• A week ago: ~15.5%
• Oct 23: ~10% (hold at 3.75–4.00% ~90%)
December is different ⚠️
• Hike odds by December: roughly 67–90% depending on source and date
• Reuters poll (Oct 16–20): 94 of 100 economists expect a hold, all 100 a hike by December
• Hold ≠ dovish: Pimco expects a hold with a clear tightening bias
The calendar
• Oct 28, 2 pm ET: FOMC + Warsh press conference
• Oct 29, 8:30 am ET: Q3 GDP and September PCE (core expected +0.3%)
Crypto read
BTC ~$81.2–81.6K, pressured by $116 Brent and a 10Y near 5%. A hold is priced; a hot PCE or hawkish guidance would hit December odds first, crypto second.
My read: I’m not trading “no hike = rally”. I’m watching Warsh’s wording and Thursday’s PCE.
Which matters more for BTC: Wednesday’s decision or Thursday’s PCE? 👇
Not financial advice. DYOR.
$BTC
$ETH
$XAUT
#FOMC #FederalReserve #Bitcoin
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🚨 $BTC JUST CRASHED BELOW $80K — BUT WEDNESDAY'S FOMC COULD FLIP THE SCRIPT! ⚠️
Bitcoin slipped to $79,770, its weakest level in over a month, after the US began evacuating Middle East personnel on Iranian-attack warnings.
Trump added fuel Friday, warning of another "little Epic Fury" operation after the midterms.
Here's the catch:
📉 $BTC lost its 50-day average near $81,784 — the first daily close below it since August. The old floor is now resistance.
📊 Fear & Greed reads 43 Neutral on Square, down from 68 Greed. Cooled fast — but not panic yet.
💧 $645M in leveraged positions were liquidated in 24 hours, $504M of it longs, with $233M wiped in a single hour. Thin weekend liquidity turned a headline into a cascade.
The lesson: thin liquidity plus high leverage turns headlines into cascades. Spot rides it out; leveraged longs get liquidated.
One exception: $M jumped 27% while 47 of the top 50 fell — but with no fresh project news behind it, that is momentum, not a thesis.
Will $BTC reclaim $80K before Wednesday's FOMC decision, or is this a deeper leg down? 👇
Not financial advice — educational purposes only.
#Bitcoin #crypto #FOMC
🚨 $BTC JUST CRASHED BELOW $80K — BUT WEDNESDAY'S FOMC COULD FLIP THE SCRIPT! ⚠️
Bitcoin slipped to $79,770, its weakest level in over a month, after the US began evacuating Middle East personnel on Iranian-attack warnings.
Trump added fuel Friday, warning of another "little Epic Fury" operation after the midterms.
Here's the catch:
📉 $BTC lost its 50-day average near $81,784 — the first daily close below it since August. The old floor is now resistance.
📊 Fear & Greed reads 43 Neutral on Square, down from 68 Greed. Cooled fast — but not panic yet.
💧 $645M in leveraged positions were liquidated in 24 hours, $504M of it longs, with $233M wiped in a single hour. Thin weekend liquidity turned a headline into a cascade.
The lesson: thin liquidity plus high leverage turns headlines into cascades. Spot rides it out; leveraged longs get liquidated.
One exception: $M jumped 27% while 47 of the top 50 fell — but with no fresh project news behind it, that is momentum, not a thesis.
Will $BTC reclaim $80K before Wednesday's FOMC decision, or is this a deeper leg down? 👇
Not financial advice — educational purposes only.
#Bitcoin #crypto #FOMC
Bitcoin slipped to $79,770, its weakest level in over a month, after the US began evacuating Middle East personnel on Iranian-attack warnings.
Trump added fuel Friday, warning of another "little Epic Fury" operation after the midterms.
Here's the catch:
📉 $BTC lost its 50-day average near $81,784 — the first daily close below it since August. The old floor is now resistance.
📊 Fear & Greed reads 43 Neutral on Square, down from 68 Greed. Cooled fast — but not panic yet.
💧 $645M in leveraged positions were liquidated in 24 hours, $504M of it longs, with $233M wiped in a single hour. Thin weekend liquidity turned a headline into a cascade.
The lesson: thin liquidity plus high leverage turns headlines into cascades. Spot rides it out; leveraged longs get liquidated.
One exception: $M jumped 27% while 47 of the top 50 fell — but with no fresh project news behind it, that is momentum, not a thesis.
Will $BTC reclaim $80K before Wednesday's FOMC decision, or is this a deeper leg down? 👇
Not financial advice — educational purposes only.
#Bitcoin #crypto #FOMC
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Article
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Macroeconomy Weekly Outlook of 26 October – 1 November, 2026.$BTC Macroeconomy Weekly Outlook☕️
Weekly Bias: 🟨Sideways to 🟥Bearish | Price is below the 50-day SMA with a bearish MACD crossover, although the CCI is deeply oversold, suggesting a potential short-term bounce. Key catalysts: FOMC Rate Decision, Core PCE, GDP, and the BoJ Decision. Geopolitical war premiums remain the ultimate wildcard.
Monday, 26 Oct: 🟨 Sideways. No major economic data. The market continues to digest the recent contradictory data and prepares for the heavy data week ahead. Expect range-bound movement with a slight recovery from oversold conditions.
Prediction: $80,000~$82,000
Direction: 🟨Sideways☕️
Tuesday, 27 Oct: 🟩 Bullish. Durable Goods Orders, CB Consumer Confidence, and New Home Sales. Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales are expected to cool, signalling a weakening consumer. This dovish data will weaken the dollar and provide a temporary lift to Bitcoin as the FOMC meeting begins.
Prediction: $80,500~$83,000
Direction: 🟩Bullish
Wednesday, 28 Oct: 🔴🟢 Volatile. Crude Oil Inventories and the FOMC Rate Decision. The Fed is expected to hold rates at 4.00%. A hold is priced in, but the FOMC Statement and Press Conference will dictate the trend. If the Fed hints at future cuts due to weakening data, Bitcoin will pump. If they stay hawkish, expect a dump.
Prediction: $80,000~$84,000
Direction: 🔴🟢Volatile
Thursday, 29 Oct: 🟥 Bearish. Core PCE, GDP, and Initial Jobless Claims. Core PCE and GDP are expected to rise, which is hawkish on paper. However, if jobless claims remain artificially low, the dollar will strengthen. Expect selling pressure as the market reacts to the hot inflation and growth prints.
Prediction: $79,000~$82,000
Direction: 🟥Bearish
Friday, 30 Oct: 🟨 Sideways to 🟥 Bearish. BoJ Interest Rate Decision and Chicago PMI. The Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates. If the yen remains weak, the dollar stays strong. Combined with weekend war fears and profit-taking, the market will likely trend downwards.
Prediction: $79,000~$82,000
Direction: 🟨Sideways to 🟥Bearish
Saturday, 31 Oct: 🟩 Bullish. China Manufacturing PMI. If China's manufacturing sector shows expansion, it will boost risk appetite in Asian markets, providing a temporary bounce for Bitcoin over the weekend.
Prediction: $80,000~$82,500
Direction: 🟩Bullish
Sunday, 1 Nov: 🟥 Bearish (War Risk). Geopolitical tensions. If the US or Iran initiates military action over the weekend, the initial reaction will be a liquidity crunch, causing Bitcoin to dump as traders rush to cash. Bitcoin only acts as a safe haven if the war directly threatens the traditional financial system.
Prediction: $78,000~$81,000
Direction: 🟥Bearish
Bias: The macro data remains highly contradictory. Hot inflation, strong GDP, and manipulated low jobless claims suggest the Fed cannot easily pivot. The FOMC and Core PCE are the primary drivers. Watch for an initial oversold bounce early in the week, followed by a sell-off as hard data hits. War risk over the weekend is the most dangerous variable. Always manage your risk.
NFA DYOR 🔥
Not a futures signal🛑
Random Tags:
$ETH $XRP #BinancePick #fomc #GDP #EarningsSeason
Macroeconomy Weekly Outlook of 26 October – 1 November, 2026.
$BTC Macroeconomy Weekly Outlook☕️
Weekly Bias: 🟨Sideways to 🟥Bearish | Price is below the 50-day SMA with a bearish MACD crossover, although the CCI is deeply oversold, suggesting a potential short-term bounce. Key catalysts: FOMC Rate Decision, Core PCE, GDP, and the BoJ Decision. Geopolitical war premiums remain the ultimate wildcard.
Monday, 26 Oct: 🟨 Sideways. No major economic data. The market continues to digest the recent contradictory data and prepares for the heavy data week ahead. Expect range-bound movement with a slight recovery from oversold conditions.
Prediction: $80,000~$82,000
Direction: 🟨Sideways☕️
Tuesday, 27 Oct: 🟩 Bullish. Durable Goods Orders, CB Consumer Confidence, and New Home Sales. Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales are expected to cool, signalling a weakening consumer. This dovish data will weaken the dollar and provide a temporary lift to Bitcoin as the FOMC meeting begins.
Prediction: $80,500~$83,000
Direction: 🟩Bullish
Wednesday, 28 Oct: 🔴🟢 Volatile. Crude Oil Inventories and the FOMC Rate Decision. The Fed is expected to hold rates at 4.00%. A hold is priced in, but the FOMC Statement and Press Conference will dictate the trend. If the Fed hints at future cuts due to weakening data, Bitcoin will pump. If they stay hawkish, expect a dump.
Prediction: $80,000~$84,000
Direction: 🔴🟢Volatile
Thursday, 29 Oct: 🟥 Bearish. Core PCE, GDP, and Initial Jobless Claims. Core PCE and GDP are expected to rise, which is hawkish on paper. However, if jobless claims remain artificially low, the dollar will strengthen. Expect selling pressure as the market reacts to the hot inflation and growth prints.
Prediction: $79,000~$82,000
Direction: 🟥Bearish
Friday, 30 Oct: 🟨 Sideways to 🟥 Bearish. BoJ Interest Rate Decision and Chicago PMI. The Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates. If the yen remains weak, the dollar stays strong. Combined with weekend war fears and profit-taking, the market will likely trend downwards.
Prediction: $79,000~$82,000
Direction: 🟨Sideways to 🟥Bearish
Saturday, 31 Oct: 🟩 Bullish. China Manufacturing PMI. If China's manufacturing sector shows expansion, it will boost risk appetite in Asian markets, providing a temporary bounce for Bitcoin over the weekend.
Prediction: $80,000~$82,500
Direction: 🟩Bullish
Sunday, 1 Nov: 🟥 Bearish (War Risk). Geopolitical tensions. If the US or Iran initiates military action over the weekend, the initial reaction will be a liquidity crunch, causing Bitcoin to dump as traders rush to cash. Bitcoin only acts as a safe haven if the war directly threatens the traditional financial system.
Prediction: $78,000~$81,000
Direction: 🟥Bearish
Bias: The macro data remains highly contradictory. Hot inflation, strong GDP, and manipulated low jobless claims suggest the Fed cannot easily pivot. The FOMC and Core PCE are the primary drivers. Watch for an initial oversold bounce early in the week, followed by a sell-off as hard data hits. War risk over the weekend is the most dangerous variable. Always manage your risk.
NFA DYOR 🔥
Not a futures signal🛑
Random Tags:
$ETH $XRP #BinancePick #fomc #GDP #EarningsSeason
Weekly Bias: 🟨Sideways to 🟥Bearish | Price is below the 50-day SMA with a bearish MACD crossover, although the CCI is deeply oversold, suggesting a potential short-term bounce. Key catalysts: FOMC Rate Decision, Core PCE, GDP, and the BoJ Decision. Geopolitical war premiums remain the ultimate wildcard.
Monday, 26 Oct: 🟨 Sideways. No major economic data. The market continues to digest the recent contradictory data and prepares for the heavy data week ahead. Expect range-bound movement with a slight recovery from oversold conditions.
Prediction: $80,000~$82,000
Direction: 🟨Sideways☕️
Tuesday, 27 Oct: 🟩 Bullish. Durable Goods Orders, CB Consumer Confidence, and New Home Sales. Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales are expected to cool, signalling a weakening consumer. This dovish data will weaken the dollar and provide a temporary lift to Bitcoin as the FOMC meeting begins.
Prediction: $80,500~$83,000
Direction: 🟩Bullish
Wednesday, 28 Oct: 🔴🟢 Volatile. Crude Oil Inventories and the FOMC Rate Decision. The Fed is expected to hold rates at 4.00%. A hold is priced in, but the FOMC Statement and Press Conference will dictate the trend. If the Fed hints at future cuts due to weakening data, Bitcoin will pump. If they stay hawkish, expect a dump.
Prediction: $80,000~$84,000
Direction: 🔴🟢Volatile
Thursday, 29 Oct: 🟥 Bearish. Core PCE, GDP, and Initial Jobless Claims. Core PCE and GDP are expected to rise, which is hawkish on paper. However, if jobless claims remain artificially low, the dollar will strengthen. Expect selling pressure as the market reacts to the hot inflation and growth prints.
Prediction: $79,000~$82,000
Direction: 🟥Bearish
Friday, 30 Oct: 🟨 Sideways to 🟥 Bearish. BoJ Interest Rate Decision and Chicago PMI. The Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates. If the yen remains weak, the dollar stays strong. Combined with weekend war fears and profit-taking, the market will likely trend downwards.
Prediction: $79,000~$82,000
Direction: 🟨Sideways to 🟥Bearish
Saturday, 31 Oct: 🟩 Bullish. China Manufacturing PMI. If China's manufacturing sector shows expansion, it will boost risk appetite in Asian markets, providing a temporary bounce for Bitcoin over the weekend.
Prediction: $80,000~$82,500
Direction: 🟩Bullish
Sunday, 1 Nov: 🟥 Bearish (War Risk). Geopolitical tensions. If the US or Iran initiates military action over the weekend, the initial reaction will be a liquidity crunch, causing Bitcoin to dump as traders rush to cash. Bitcoin only acts as a safe haven if the war directly threatens the traditional financial system.
Prediction: $78,000~$81,000
Direction: 🟥Bearish
Bias: The macro data remains highly contradictory. Hot inflation, strong GDP, and manipulated low jobless claims suggest the Fed cannot easily pivot. The FOMC and Core PCE are the primary drivers. Watch for an initial oversold bounce early in the week, followed by a sell-off as hard data hits. War risk over the weekend is the most dangerous variable. Always manage your risk.
NFA DYOR 🔥
Not a futures signal🛑
Random Tags:
$ETH $XRP #BinancePick #fomc #GDP #EarningsSeason
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See translation
🚨 $BTC IS SITTING AT USD 80,705 — AND THE USD 80,000 FLOOR IS UNDER TEST AGAIN. BUT WEDNESDAY'S FOMC DECISION COULD BREAK THIS RANGE! 👀
The driver is not one coin — it is macro. AI-financing worries spread from stocks to crypto, QCP Capital says, and sellers stepped in across the board.
Here's what the data shows:
📉 US spot $BTC ETFs lost USD 635M on Thursday — the biggest single-day outflow since June
📊 24h liquidations hit USD 467M, with 68.7% longs caught out
💧 Fear & Greed sits at 46 Neutral — neither panic nor greed is driving this
$ETH is down to USD 2,376 and $SOL to USD 102, so this is a market-wide de-risking, not a single-coin story.
The lesson: when macro fear rises, even strong levels get retested — thinner conviction means bigger swings both ways.
Volatility usually stays elevated into big Fed weeks, so risk management matters more than direction bets.
Which level are you watching closest into Wednesday's FOMC — USD 80,000 holding, or a break below it? 👇
Not financial advice — educational purposes only.
#Bitcoin #Ethereum #crypto #FOMC
🚨 $BTC IS SITTING AT USD 80,705 — AND THE USD 80,000 FLOOR IS UNDER TEST AGAIN. BUT WEDNESDAY'S FOMC DECISION COULD BREAK THIS RANGE! 👀
The driver is not one coin — it is macro. AI-financing worries spread from stocks to crypto, QCP Capital says, and sellers stepped in across the board.
Here's what the data shows:
📉 US spot $BTC ETFs lost USD 635M on Thursday — the biggest single-day outflow since June
📊 24h liquidations hit USD 467M, with 68.7% longs caught out
💧 Fear & Greed sits at 46 Neutral — neither panic nor greed is driving this
$ETH is down to USD 2,376 and $SOL to USD 102, so this is a market-wide de-risking, not a single-coin story.
The lesson: when macro fear rises, even strong levels get retested — thinner conviction means bigger swings both ways.
Volatility usually stays elevated into big Fed weeks, so risk management matters more than direction bets.
Which level are you watching closest into Wednesday's FOMC — USD 80,000 holding, or a break below it? 👇
Not financial advice — educational purposes only.
#Bitcoin #Ethereum #crypto #FOMC
The driver is not one coin — it is macro. AI-financing worries spread from stocks to crypto, QCP Capital says, and sellers stepped in across the board.
Here's what the data shows:
📉 US spot $BTC ETFs lost USD 635M on Thursday — the biggest single-day outflow since June
📊 24h liquidations hit USD 467M, with 68.7% longs caught out
💧 Fear & Greed sits at 46 Neutral — neither panic nor greed is driving this
$ETH is down to USD 2,376 and $SOL to USD 102, so this is a market-wide de-risking, not a single-coin story.
The lesson: when macro fear rises, even strong levels get retested — thinner conviction means bigger swings both ways.
Volatility usually stays elevated into big Fed weeks, so risk management matters more than direction bets.
Which level are you watching closest into Wednesday's FOMC — USD 80,000 holding, or a break below it? 👇
Not financial advice — educational purposes only.
#Bitcoin #Ethereum #crypto #FOMC
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🔮 The Oracle Predicts | Fed’s October Decision: Has the Market Already “Passed Judgment”?
Event: The Federal Reserve’s October 27–28 FOMC meeting. The decision will be announced in the early hours of October 29 Beijing time (2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on October 28).
What prediction markets are saying (as of October 25, combining Polymarket and Kalshi):
• Hold rates steady: about 94%
• Raise rates by 25 basis points: about 5%
• Cut rates: less than 1%
The most intriguing thing isn’t the number itself, but how it has changed: on October 14, the odds of holding steady were just 52%, versus 48% for a rate hike—almost a toss-up. After September’s hotter-than-expected CPI, the release of PPI, comments from the Fed chair, and the start of the pre-meeting quiet period, the market swung decisively in one direction over two weeks.
My take:
1) Holding rates steady in October is the likeliest outcome. The bigger question is the wording of the statement—and whether it leaves the door open for December.
2) The next real point of interest is December: prediction markets put the odds of a 25-basis-point hike on December 8–9 at about 76.5%. In other words, the market has pushed the “next rate hike” from October to December, rather than ruling it out.
3) Impact on crypto markets: If the decision matches expectations, volatility may be limited. The real wildcard is a change in the expected December path, or a statement that is unexpectedly hawkish.
A note on uncertainty:
• 94% isn’t 100%. The statement’s wording, forward guidance, and post-meeting comments could all prompt the market to reprice;
• September PCE data is also due on October 29, and the inflation reading could still shake up December expectations;
• Prediction-market prices are implied probabilities backed by traders’ real money. They are not official forecasts and can swing quickly as news comes in.
So my prediction is: no move in October, with a December hike as the base case. But this is only a probability judgment—not a promise of a guaranteed win. What do you think? Which side are you on for December?
#预测市场 #美联储 #FOMC #Oracle
$BTC $ETH
Personal research shared for informational purposes only; this is not investment advice.
🔮 The Oracle Predicts | Fed’s October Decision: Has the Market Already “Passed Judgment”?
Event: The Federal Reserve’s October 27–28 FOMC meeting. The decision will be announced in the early hours of October 29 Beijing time (2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on October 28).
What prediction markets are saying (as of October 25, combining Polymarket and Kalshi):
• Hold rates steady: about 94%
• Raise rates by 25 basis points: about 5%
• Cut rates: less than 1%
The most intriguing thing isn’t the number itself, but how it has changed: on October 14, the odds of holding steady were just 52%, versus 48% for a rate hike—almost a toss-up. After September’s hotter-than-expected CPI, the release of PPI, comments from the Fed chair, and the start of the pre-meeting quiet period, the market swung decisively in one direction over two weeks.
My take:
1) Holding rates steady in October is the likeliest outcome. The bigger question is the wording of the statement—and whether it leaves the door open for December.
2) The next real point of interest is December: prediction markets put the odds of a 25-basis-point hike on December 8–9 at about 76.5%. In other words, the market has pushed the “next rate hike” from October to December, rather than ruling it out.
3) Impact on crypto markets: If the decision matches expectations, volatility may be limited. The real wildcard is a change in the expected December path, or a statement that is unexpectedly hawkish.
A note on uncertainty:
• 94% isn’t 100%. The statement’s wording, forward guidance, and post-meeting comments could all prompt the market to reprice;
• September PCE data is also due on October 29, and the inflation reading could still shake up December expectations;
• Prediction-market prices are implied probabilities backed by traders’ real money. They are not official forecasts and can swing quickly as news comes in.
So my prediction is: no move in October, with a December hike as the base case. But this is only a probability judgment—not a promise of a guaranteed win. What do you think? Which side are you on for December?
#预测市场 #美联储 #FOMC #Oracle
$BTC $ETH
Personal research shared for informational purposes only; this is not investment advice.
Event: The Federal Reserve’s October 27–28 FOMC meeting. The decision will be announced in the early hours of October 29 Beijing time (2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on October 28).
What prediction markets are saying (as of October 25, combining Polymarket and Kalshi):
• Hold rates steady: about 94%
• Raise rates by 25 basis points: about 5%
• Cut rates: less than 1%
The most intriguing thing isn’t the number itself, but how it has changed: on October 14, the odds of holding steady were just 52%, versus 48% for a rate hike—almost a toss-up. After September’s hotter-than-expected CPI, the release of PPI, comments from the Fed chair, and the start of the pre-meeting quiet period, the market swung decisively in one direction over two weeks.
My take:
1) Holding rates steady in October is the likeliest outcome. The bigger question is the wording of the statement—and whether it leaves the door open for December.
2) The next real point of interest is December: prediction markets put the odds of a 25-basis-point hike on December 8–9 at about 76.5%. In other words, the market has pushed the “next rate hike” from October to December, rather than ruling it out.
3) Impact on crypto markets: If the decision matches expectations, volatility may be limited. The real wildcard is a change in the expected December path, or a statement that is unexpectedly hawkish.
A note on uncertainty:
• 94% isn’t 100%. The statement’s wording, forward guidance, and post-meeting comments could all prompt the market to reprice;
• September PCE data is also due on October 29, and the inflation reading could still shake up December expectations;
• Prediction-market prices are implied probabilities backed by traders’ real money. They are not official forecasts and can swing quickly as news comes in.
So my prediction is: no move in October, with a December hike as the base case. But this is only a probability judgment—not a promise of a guaranteed win. What do you think? Which side are you on for December?
#预测市场 #美联储 #FOMC #Oracle
$BTC $ETH
Personal research shared for informational purposes only; this is not investment advice.
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This week’s schedule is set, and the key event that could really move the market is concentrated on Wednesday.
The takeaway first: October 28 is this week’s decision day. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, while Binance will halt spot trading for EPIC and QUICK on the same day. With both events falling on the same day, volatility expectations should be centered on Wednesday, not Monday.
1. The Fed will hold its FOMC meeting on October 27–28, with its decision announced at 2 a.m. Beijing time on October 29 (2 p.m. Eastern Time on October 28). Chair Kevin Warsh will hold a press conference half an hour later. The current federal funds target range is 3.75% to 4.00%, following a 25-basis-point rate cut in September. Market pricing puts the probability of no change in October at around 80% or higher, but in mid-October Warsh declined to reveal the decision in advance. This meeting will not include updated economic projections or a dot plot, making the wording of the statement and press conference the main variables.
2. Binance will halt all spot trading pairs for EPIC and QUICK at 11 a.m. Beijing time on October 28 and automatically cancel any unfilled orders. Deposits will be credited until 11 a.m. on October 29, and withdrawals will be supported through December 28. On the day the announcement was published, the two tokens fell by approximately 15% and 22%, respectively.
3. Closing figures for October 25: $BTC closed at $80,019, down 0.8% on the day; the total crypto market capitalization was approximately $2.64 trillion, down 0.9% on the day; Bitcoin dominance was around 60.6%.
4. Other events: The Flux network’s block reward will be reduced by 10% today, from 14 to 12.6 coins. The Cosmos Hub v29 mainnet upgrade is expected to go live on October 28, subject to approval by a community vote.
It is worth noting that this week’s volatility is driven more by policy language than by the data itself. The half hour before and after the announcement is the key window to watch.
#美联储 #FOMC $BTC $EPIC $QUICK
Personal opinions only; this does not constitute investment advice.
This week’s schedule is set, and the key event that could really move the market is concentrated on Wednesday.
The takeaway first: October 28 is this week’s decision day. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, while Binance will halt spot trading for EPIC and QUICK on the same day. With both events falling on the same day, volatility expectations should be centered on Wednesday, not Monday.
1. The Fed will hold its FOMC meeting on October 27–28, with its decision announced at 2 a.m. Beijing time on October 29 (2 p.m. Eastern Time on October 28). Chair Kevin Warsh will hold a press conference half an hour later. The current federal funds target range is 3.75% to 4.00%, following a 25-basis-point rate cut in September. Market pricing puts the probability of no change in October at around 80% or higher, but in mid-October Warsh declined to reveal the decision in advance. This meeting will not include updated economic projections or a dot plot, making the wording of the statement and press conference the main variables.
2. Binance will halt all spot trading pairs for EPIC and QUICK at 11 a.m. Beijing time on October 28 and automatically cancel any unfilled orders. Deposits will be credited until 11 a.m. on October 29, and withdrawals will be supported through December 28. On the day the announcement was published, the two tokens fell by approximately 15% and 22%, respectively.
3. Closing figures for October 25: $BTC closed at $80,019, down 0.8% on the day; the total crypto market capitalization was approximately $2.64 trillion, down 0.9% on the day; Bitcoin dominance was around 60.6%.
4. Other events: The Flux network’s block reward will be reduced by 10% today, from 14 to 12.6 coins. The Cosmos Hub v29 mainnet upgrade is expected to go live on October 28, subject to approval by a community vote.
It is worth noting that this week’s volatility is driven more by policy language than by the data itself. The half hour before and after the announcement is the key window to watch.
#美联储 #FOMC $BTC $EPIC $QUICK
Personal opinions only; this does not constitute investment advice.
The takeaway first: October 28 is this week’s decision day. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, while Binance will halt spot trading for EPIC and QUICK on the same day. With both events falling on the same day, volatility expectations should be centered on Wednesday, not Monday.
1. The Fed will hold its FOMC meeting on October 27–28, with its decision announced at 2 a.m. Beijing time on October 29 (2 p.m. Eastern Time on October 28). Chair Kevin Warsh will hold a press conference half an hour later. The current federal funds target range is 3.75% to 4.00%, following a 25-basis-point rate cut in September. Market pricing puts the probability of no change in October at around 80% or higher, but in mid-October Warsh declined to reveal the decision in advance. This meeting will not include updated economic projections or a dot plot, making the wording of the statement and press conference the main variables.
2. Binance will halt all spot trading pairs for EPIC and QUICK at 11 a.m. Beijing time on October 28 and automatically cancel any unfilled orders. Deposits will be credited until 11 a.m. on October 29, and withdrawals will be supported through December 28. On the day the announcement was published, the two tokens fell by approximately 15% and 22%, respectively.
3. Closing figures for October 25: $BTC closed at $80,019, down 0.8% on the day; the total crypto market capitalization was approximately $2.64 trillion, down 0.9% on the day; Bitcoin dominance was around 60.6%.
4. Other events: The Flux network’s block reward will be reduced by 10% today, from 14 to 12.6 coins. The Cosmos Hub v29 mainnet upgrade is expected to go live on October 28, subject to approval by a community vote.
It is worth noting that this week’s volatility is driven more by policy language than by the data itself. The half hour before and after the announcement is the key window to watch.
#美联储 #FOMC $BTC $EPIC $QUICK
Personal opinions only; this does not constitute investment advice.
9
Stop talking to me about a “rate-cut rally” this week. The market is pricing in rate hikes.
The figures Laevitas shared with The Block last week: the odds of a hike on October 28 fell from around 41% on October 14 to basically zero, but the odds of a December hike are still around 72%. In other words, rates will most likely stay put this week at 3.75%–4.00%. The threat comes later.
And just look at this week’s schedule—it’s like defusing a bomb. FOMC on Tuesday and Wednesday; Microsoft and Google report earnings on the 28th. Thursday brings September PCE, with core inflation expected at 3.1%, Q3 GDP around 3.2%, plus Amazon and Intel earnings. The Bank of Japan is up on Friday.
BTC is basically the Nasdaq with extra beta. On October 22, the Nasdaq fell 2.6%, and about $460 million in crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours—over 90% of them longs. Any hint of trouble with AI financing, and crypto gets hit first. So if you open a position this week, you’re essentially betting on the Fed, earnings from four tech giants, and the Bank of Japan all at once. Are you really confident you can read all that?
One more thing: Laevitas puts the average cost basis for holders at around $81,000, and the price is hovering below that now. Until it gets back above, every bounce will bring a pile of sell orders from people looking to break even.
Those saying “a huge move is guaranteed this week—join the group and catch the trend” know just as well as everyone else that volatility will be high. They don’t know which way it’ll go; they just want you in their group.
My approach is pretty unexciting: cut leverage to a level I can sleep with, and don’t open new positions before PCE comes out.
#FOMC #BTC
Stop talking to me about a “rate-cut rally” this week. The market is pricing in rate hikes.
The figures Laevitas shared with The Block last week: the odds of a hike on October 28 fell from around 41% on October 14 to basically zero, but the odds of a December hike are still around 72%. In other words, rates will most likely stay put this week at 3.75%–4.00%. The threat comes later.
And just look at this week’s schedule—it’s like defusing a bomb. FOMC on Tuesday and Wednesday; Microsoft and Google report earnings on the 28th. Thursday brings September PCE, with core inflation expected at 3.1%, Q3 GDP around 3.2%, plus Amazon and Intel earnings. The Bank of Japan is up on Friday.
BTC is basically the Nasdaq with extra beta. On October 22, the Nasdaq fell 2.6%, and about $460 million in crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours—over 90% of them longs. Any hint of trouble with AI financing, and crypto gets hit first. So if you open a position this week, you’re essentially betting on the Fed, earnings from four tech giants, and the Bank of Japan all at once. Are you really confident you can read all that?
One more thing: Laevitas puts the average cost basis for holders at around $81,000, and the price is hovering below that now. Until it gets back above, every bounce will bring a pile of sell orders from people looking to break even.
Those saying “a huge move is guaranteed this week—join the group and catch the trend” know just as well as everyone else that volatility will be high. They don’t know which way it’ll go; they just want you in their group.
My approach is pretty unexciting: cut leverage to a level I can sleep with, and don’t open new positions before PCE comes out.
#FOMC #BTC
The figures Laevitas shared with The Block last week: the odds of a hike on October 28 fell from around 41% on October 14 to basically zero, but the odds of a December hike are still around 72%. In other words, rates will most likely stay put this week at 3.75%–4.00%. The threat comes later.
And just look at this week’s schedule—it’s like defusing a bomb. FOMC on Tuesday and Wednesday; Microsoft and Google report earnings on the 28th. Thursday brings September PCE, with core inflation expected at 3.1%, Q3 GDP around 3.2%, plus Amazon and Intel earnings. The Bank of Japan is up on Friday.
BTC is basically the Nasdaq with extra beta. On October 22, the Nasdaq fell 2.6%, and about $460 million in crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours—over 90% of them longs. Any hint of trouble with AI financing, and crypto gets hit first. So if you open a position this week, you’re essentially betting on the Fed, earnings from four tech giants, and the Bank of Japan all at once. Are you really confident you can read all that?
One more thing: Laevitas puts the average cost basis for holders at around $81,000, and the price is hovering below that now. Until it gets back above, every bounce will bring a pile of sell orders from people looking to break even.
Those saying “a huge move is guaranteed this week—join the group and catch the trend” know just as well as everyone else that volatility will be high. They don’t know which way it’ll go; they just want you in their group.
My approach is pretty unexciting: cut leverage to a level I can sleep with, and don’t open new positions before PCE comes out.
#FOMC #BTC
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$80,162——$BTC has just climbed back above $80,000, but a weekend liquidation wiped out over $800 million. With the Fed’s rate decision countdown underway, what exactly is the market betting on?
During the Asian session, CoinMarketCap showed Bitcoin at around $80,162, down about 0.41% over 24 hours. It briefly touched a weekend low of around $79,146 before reclaiming the psychological threshold. Coinglass data showed more than approximately $810 million in liquidations across the crypto market over the past 24 hours, including about $689 million in long liquidations. Thin weekend liquidity amplified the leveraged sell-off after prices fell below $80,000.
Meanwhile, CME FedWatch puts the odds of the Fed holding rates steady at 3.75%–4.00% at its October 28 meeting at around 90.6%, with just a 9.4% chance of a 25-basis-point hike. This means short-term volatility will depend more on the tone of the statement and whether the chair’s remarks at the press conference push up expectations of a December rate hike—not on whether rates will be raised again this week.
There’s activity on the policy front, too: the Treasury Department/FinCEN has already withdrawn its proposed reporting rules targeting unhosted wallets and others, while the existing AML framework remains in place. But this week, pricing power still rests mainly with the Fed. $ETH is also weak, with risk assets broadly waiting for a clear signal.
Are you watching support around $78,000 more closely, or the Fed’s remarks on Wednesday?
#Bitcoin #加密市场 #美联储 #FOMC
(The above is market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.)
$80,162——$BTC has just climbed back above $80,000, but a weekend liquidation wiped out over $800 million. With the Fed’s rate decision countdown underway, what exactly is the market betting on?
During the Asian session, CoinMarketCap showed Bitcoin at around $80,162, down about 0.41% over 24 hours. It briefly touched a weekend low of around $79,146 before reclaiming the psychological threshold. Coinglass data showed more than approximately $810 million in liquidations across the crypto market over the past 24 hours, including about $689 million in long liquidations. Thin weekend liquidity amplified the leveraged sell-off after prices fell below $80,000.
Meanwhile, CME FedWatch puts the odds of the Fed holding rates steady at 3.75%–4.00% at its October 28 meeting at around 90.6%, with just a 9.4% chance of a 25-basis-point hike. This means short-term volatility will depend more on the tone of the statement and whether the chair’s remarks at the press conference push up expectations of a December rate hike—not on whether rates will be raised again this week.
There’s activity on the policy front, too: the Treasury Department/FinCEN has already withdrawn its proposed reporting rules targeting unhosted wallets and others, while the existing AML framework remains in place. But this week, pricing power still rests mainly with the Fed. $ETH is also weak, with risk assets broadly waiting for a clear signal.
Are you watching support around $78,000 more closely, or the Fed’s remarks on Wednesday?
#Bitcoin #加密市场 #美联储 #FOMC
(The above is market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.)
During the Asian session, CoinMarketCap showed Bitcoin at around $80,162, down about 0.41% over 24 hours. It briefly touched a weekend low of around $79,146 before reclaiming the psychological threshold. Coinglass data showed more than approximately $810 million in liquidations across the crypto market over the past 24 hours, including about $689 million in long liquidations. Thin weekend liquidity amplified the leveraged sell-off after prices fell below $80,000.
Meanwhile, CME FedWatch puts the odds of the Fed holding rates steady at 3.75%–4.00% at its October 28 meeting at around 90.6%, with just a 9.4% chance of a 25-basis-point hike. This means short-term volatility will depend more on the tone of the statement and whether the chair’s remarks at the press conference push up expectations of a December rate hike—not on whether rates will be raised again this week.
There’s activity on the policy front, too: the Treasury Department/FinCEN has already withdrawn its proposed reporting rules targeting unhosted wallets and others, while the existing AML framework remains in place. But this week, pricing power still rests mainly with the Fed. $ETH is also weak, with risk assets broadly waiting for a clear signal.
Are you watching support around $78,000 more closely, or the Fed’s remarks on Wednesday?
#Bitcoin #加密市场 #美联储 #FOMC
(The above is market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.)
168
Two weeks ago, the market was split 50/50: a 52% chance the Fed would hold rates steady in October, and 48% for a rate hike. Now it’s completely one-sided—Polymarket puts the odds of no change at 94%, and CME has them at 90.6%, leaving just 9.4% for a hike. But $BTC is still hovering just above 80,000, after crawling back above that level over the weekend: everyone’s betting on no change, yet the price isn’t budging. The verdict comes at 2 a.m. Beijing time on October 29. Will a hold be bullish, or could a hold accompanied by hawkish remarks still send prices tumbling? Pick a side in the comments: A: No change and straight to the moon. B: Hawkish remarks—dump first, ask questions later.
$ETH $SOL #美联储 #FOMC #Bitcoin
Two weeks ago, the market was split 50/50: a 52% chance the Fed would hold rates steady in October, and 48% for a rate hike. Now it’s completely one-sided—Polymarket puts the odds of no change at 94%, and CME has them at 90.6%, leaving just 9.4% for a hike. But $BTC is still hovering just above 80,000, after crawling back above that level over the weekend: everyone’s betting on no change, yet the price isn’t budging. The verdict comes at 2 a.m. Beijing time on October 29. Will a hold be bullish, or could a hold accompanied by hawkish remarks still send prices tumbling? Pick a side in the comments: A: No change and straight to the moon. B: Hawkish remarks—dump first, ask questions later.
$ETH $SOL #美联储 #FOMC #Bitcoin
$ETH $SOL #美联储 #FOMC #Bitcoin
18
1/ $BTC MARKET UPDATE — Ahead of FOMC
Bitcoin ~$80,600
Gold ~$3,996 / oz
Bitcoin is in the $80k zone. This is now the most important zone.
2/ KEY LEVELS — Simple and clear
Support: $80,000 zone
Demand zone: $78,000 – $80,000
Major Resistance: $87,800 – $88,000 (50-week moving average)
Price is above $80k, so the structure has not broken down yet. But a close below $80k would change that.
3/ SCENARIOS
Bull case: If $80k holds and reversal confirmation appears, then a move toward $87,800–$88,000 is possible after consolidation.
Bear case: If $80k breaks, a pullback to $70k–$80k is possible. This is not a time for panic; it’s a time to watch levels.
Gold’s signal: Below $4,000, flat after a weekly drop of ~4%. Pricing in an FOMC hold (market pricing, not a decision) could keep pressure on gold as long as yields remain high.
4/ PLAN + RISK RULE
Above $80k: Trade only after confirmation; don’t chase.
Below $80k: Wait and let a new level confirm.
Rule: Risk 1–2% only. Trail after the first target.
Macro watch: FOMC 27–28 Oct, Fed hold pricing, December hike odds, oil / inflation risk.
For educational purposes only; not financial advice.
#Bitcoin #Gold #BTC #FOMC #crypto
1/ $BTC MARKET UPDATE — Ahead of FOMC
Bitcoin ~$80,600
Gold ~$3,996 / oz
Bitcoin is in the $80k zone. This is now the most important zone.
2/ KEY LEVELS — Simple and clear
Support: $80,000 zone
Demand zone: $78,000 – $80,000
Major Resistance: $87,800 – $88,000 (50-week moving average)
Price is above $80k, so the structure has not broken down yet. But a close below $80k would change that.
3/ SCENARIOS
Bull case: If $80k holds and reversal confirmation appears, then a move toward $87,800–$88,000 is possible after consolidation.
Bear case: If $80k breaks, a pullback to $70k–$80k is possible. This is not a time for panic; it’s a time to watch levels.
Gold’s signal: Below $4,000, flat after a weekly drop of ~4%. Pricing in an FOMC hold (market pricing, not a decision) could keep pressure on gold as long as yields remain high.
4/ PLAN + RISK RULE
Above $80k: Trade only after confirmation; don’t chase.
Below $80k: Wait and let a new level confirm.
Rule: Risk 1–2% only. Trail after the first target.
Macro watch: FOMC 27–28 Oct, Fed hold pricing, December hike odds, oil / inflation risk.
For educational purposes only; not financial advice.
#Bitcoin #Gold #BTC #FOMC #crypto
Bitcoin ~$80,600
Gold ~$3,996 / oz
Bitcoin is in the $80k zone. This is now the most important zone.
2/ KEY LEVELS — Simple and clear
Support: $80,000 zone
Demand zone: $78,000 – $80,000
Major Resistance: $87,800 – $88,000 (50-week moving average)
Price is above $80k, so the structure has not broken down yet. But a close below $80k would change that.
3/ SCENARIOS
Bull case: If $80k holds and reversal confirmation appears, then a move toward $87,800–$88,000 is possible after consolidation.
Bear case: If $80k breaks, a pullback to $70k–$80k is possible. This is not a time for panic; it’s a time to watch levels.
Gold’s signal: Below $4,000, flat after a weekly drop of ~4%. Pricing in an FOMC hold (market pricing, not a decision) could keep pressure on gold as long as yields remain high.
4/ PLAN + RISK RULE
Above $80k: Trade only after confirmation; don’t chase.
Below $80k: Wait and let a new level confirm.
Rule: Risk 1–2% only. Trail after the first target.
Macro watch: FOMC 27–28 Oct, Fed hold pricing, December hike odds, oil / inflation risk.
For educational purposes only; not financial advice.
#Bitcoin #Gold #BTC #FOMC #crypto
1
110
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Article
Down 20%—is this the bottom? Three major macro landmines next week will put every doubter to the test.If you're still wondering whether the market will plunge next Monday, consider setting the charts aside and taking a closer look at the three major macro variables due to come into play next week. This isn't just about choosing a direction—it's also the perfect cover for big players to shake out the market.
1️⃣ Geopolitical showdown: Can Israel's election on Tuesday bring peace?
Many people see the election as a positive sign for de-escalation in the Middle East. But let's be clear: a change in leadership ≠ peace. Even if the new faction campaigns on neutrality, it will most likely remain hawkish on security policy, and forming a government will face enormous obstacles. If, in an extremely pessimistic market, investors seize on this as “good news” and fuel a rally, that could actually be your chance to short into strength or reduce your positions.
Down 20%—is this the bottom? Three major macro landmines next week will put every doubter to the test.
If you're still wondering whether the market will plunge next Monday, consider setting the charts aside and taking a closer look at the three major macro variables due to come into play next week. This isn't just about choosing a direction—it's also the perfect cover for big players to shake out the market.
1️⃣ Geopolitical showdown: Can Israel's election on Tuesday bring peace?
Many people see the election as a positive sign for de-escalation in the Middle East. But let's be clear: a change in leadership ≠ peace. Even if the new faction campaigns on neutrality, it will most likely remain hawkish on security policy, and forming a government will face enormous obstacles. If, in an extremely pessimistic market, investors seize on this as “good news” and fuel a rally, that could actually be your chance to short into strength or reduce your positions.
1️⃣ Geopolitical showdown: Can Israel's election on Tuesday bring peace?
Many people see the election as a positive sign for de-escalation in the Middle East. But let's be clear: a change in leadership ≠ peace. Even if the new faction campaigns on neutrality, it will most likely remain hawkish on security policy, and forming a government will face enormous obstacles. If, in an extremely pessimistic market, investors seize on this as “good news” and fuel a rally, that could actually be your chance to short into strength or reduce your positions.
241
With just two days to go before the Fed’s October 27–28 meeting, the market is already popping champagne: CME and prediction markets are both putting the odds of no change at around 87%, while the chance of a rate hike is down to just 14%. After September’s hike brought rates to 3.75%–4%, they’ll most likely stay put this time, and $BTC is holding steady just above $80,000, waiting to breathe a sigh of relief.
But don’t pop the champagne just yet: September CPI came in at 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August and still a long way from the 2% target. Meanwhile, the market is also pricing in odds above 80% of another 25-basis-point hike in December. No move in October doesn’t mean you’re off the hook—it just means the knife has been pushed back a month.
So between those betting on no move in October and those betting on a December hike, who’s really carrying water for whom? Pick a side in the comments: A: No move in October means a pivot—it’s time to buy the dip. B: That December knife is still hanging over us; better to get out now. Which side are you on?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美联储 #FOMC #RateHike
With just two days to go before the Fed’s October 27–28 meeting, the market is already popping champagne: CME and prediction markets are both putting the odds of no change at around 87%, while the chance of a rate hike is down to just 14%. After September’s hike brought rates to 3.75%–4%, they’ll most likely stay put this time, and $BTC is holding steady just above $80,000, waiting to breathe a sigh of relief.
But don’t pop the champagne just yet: September CPI came in at 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August and still a long way from the 2% target. Meanwhile, the market is also pricing in odds above 80% of another 25-basis-point hike in December. No move in October doesn’t mean you’re off the hook—it just means the knife has been pushed back a month.
So between those betting on no move in October and those betting on a December hike, who’s really carrying water for whom? Pick a side in the comments: A: No move in October means a pivot—it’s time to buy the dip. B: That December knife is still hanging over us; better to get out now. Which side are you on?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美联储 #FOMC #RateHike
But don’t pop the champagne just yet: September CPI came in at 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August and still a long way from the 2% target. Meanwhile, the market is also pricing in odds above 80% of another 25-basis-point hike in December. No move in October doesn’t mean you’re off the hook—it just means the knife has been pushed back a month.
So between those betting on no move in October and those betting on a December hike, who’s really carrying water for whom? Pick a side in the comments: A: No move in October means a pivot—it’s time to buy the dip. B: That December knife is still hanging over us; better to get out now. Which side are you on?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美联储 #FOMC #RateHike
3
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🛢️ Brent crude tops $110, but BTC is getting dragged down too? QCP warns: a dangerous macro mix
QCP’s latest report: BTC remains a risk asset. AI credit stress + renewed escalation in the Middle East are driving oil prices higher, with both factors colliding on the eve of the FOMC meeting.
📊 Current data
• BTC $80,360 (24h -1.2%)
• ETH $2,339 (-2.4%)
• Fear & Greed Index 51 (neutral)
⚠️ The chain of events
Oil prices ↑ → inflation expectations ↑ → less room for Fed rate cuts → risk assets come under pressure. Ahead of the 10/28 FOMC meeting, the market will likely stay cautious for now, with $80K becoming a psychological line for bulls and bears.
👉 Two things to watch during Monday’s Asian session: Can BTC reclaim $80K? Will oil prices keep surging?
Do you think BTC will head for $79K or $83K before this week’s FOMC meeting? Let us know in the comments 👇
$BTC $ETH
#加密市场 #FOMC #CrudeOil
Personal views only; not investment advice
🛢️ Brent crude tops $110, but BTC is getting dragged down too? QCP warns: a dangerous macro mix
QCP’s latest report: BTC remains a risk asset. AI credit stress + renewed escalation in the Middle East are driving oil prices higher, with both factors colliding on the eve of the FOMC meeting.
📊 Current data
• BTC $80,360 (24h -1.2%)
• ETH $2,339 (-2.4%)
• Fear & Greed Index 51 (neutral)
⚠️ The chain of events
Oil prices ↑ → inflation expectations ↑ → less room for Fed rate cuts → risk assets come under pressure. Ahead of the 10/28 FOMC meeting, the market will likely stay cautious for now, with $80K becoming a psychological line for bulls and bears.
👉 Two things to watch during Monday’s Asian session: Can BTC reclaim $80K? Will oil prices keep surging?
Do you think BTC will head for $79K or $83K before this week’s FOMC meeting? Let us know in the comments 👇
$BTC $ETH
#加密市场 #FOMC #CrudeOil
Personal views only; not investment advice
QCP’s latest report: BTC remains a risk asset. AI credit stress + renewed escalation in the Middle East are driving oil prices higher, with both factors colliding on the eve of the FOMC meeting.
📊 Current data
• BTC $80,360 (24h -1.2%)
• ETH $2,339 (-2.4%)
• Fear & Greed Index 51 (neutral)
⚠️ The chain of events
Oil prices ↑ → inflation expectations ↑ → less room for Fed rate cuts → risk assets come under pressure. Ahead of the 10/28 FOMC meeting, the market will likely stay cautious for now, with $80K becoming a psychological line for bulls and bears.
👉 Two things to watch during Monday’s Asian session: Can BTC reclaim $80K? Will oil prices keep surging?
Do you think BTC will head for $79K or $83K before this week’s FOMC meeting? Let us know in the comments 👇
$BTC $ETH
#加密市场 #FOMC #CrudeOil
Personal views only; not investment advice
6
·
--
Partly True
🌙 Tonight’s question: What will the Fed do?
Wednesday at 21:00 Amman time: The U.S. interest rate decision — markets are pricing in a 93% chance that the Fed will hold rates steady.
But the more important point isn’t the decision; it’s December: forecasts put the chance of another hike in December at 72–76%, after inflation came in hot (3.7%).
Powell speaks at 21:30 that same night — one word from him could turn the market around.
Tonight’s question: Do you expect the Fed to hold rates steady on Wednesday and hike in December? And what impact would that scenario have on Bitcoin? 👇
Source: Reuters poll / Kalshi
$BTC #Bitcoin #FOMC
🌙 Tonight’s question: What will the Fed do?
Wednesday at 21:00 Amman time: The U.S. interest rate decision — markets are pricing in a 93% chance that the Fed will hold rates steady.
But the more important point isn’t the decision; it’s December: forecasts put the chance of another hike in December at 72–76%, after inflation came in hot (3.7%).
Powell speaks at 21:30 that same night — one word from him could turn the market around.
Tonight’s question: Do you expect the Fed to hold rates steady on Wednesday and hike in December? And what impact would that scenario have on Bitcoin? 👇
Source: Reuters poll / Kalshi
$BTC #Bitcoin #FOMC
Wednesday at 21:00 Amman time: The U.S. interest rate decision — markets are pricing in a 93% chance that the Fed will hold rates steady.
But the more important point isn’t the decision; it’s December: forecasts put the chance of another hike in December at 72–76%, after inflation came in hot (3.7%).
Powell speaks at 21:30 that same night — one word from him could turn the market around.
Tonight’s question: Do you expect the Fed to hold rates steady on Wednesday and hike in December? And what impact would that scenario have on Bitcoin? 👇
Source: Reuters poll / Kalshi
$BTC #Bitcoin #FOMC
6
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