Since early February 2026, Bitcoin has continued to trade in a bear market, having fallen below both the True Market Mean and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis.
The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis has decreased to $68,500, which is below the True Market Mean of $75,800. Consequently, Bitcoin is currently trading below the acquisition costs of both recent buyers and the broader investor base.
Historically, this configuration is associated with the capitulation phase, during which market bottoms frequently develop. As long as Bitcoin remains below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, the market will remain in a capitulation phase. This condition presents opportunities for new buyers while simultaneously exposing the asset to further downside driven by macroeconomic factors.