mark.dca

Microsoft issuing bonds for the first time in 10 years 👀

Offering 2yr, 10yr, even 40yr maturities. Rates ~135bps over Treasuries.

$MSFT gave back all its premarket gains on the news. But it's only $25B - probably just joining the party since everyone else is tapping the debt market rn.

When big tech needs to borrow, you know liquidity conditions are shifting. Watch how this plays into their AI capex plans.

$MRVL trying to acquire Lumentum for $80B+ — announcement likely next week.

$MRVL tanked 11% on the news. Why? They only have $3.9B cash but want to drop $80B. Market's calling BS on the financing.

$LITE pumped 17% on acquisition premium.

Marvell got too high on Jensen's "$1T valuation" hopium and now wants to own the entire optical interconnect stack. Vision makes sense, but execution? Questionable when you're leveraging to the tits with barely any dry powder.

Watch the debt structure when terms drop. If it's equity-heavy dilution, $MRVL bleeds more.

Jensen Huang getting grilled by DOJ over $NVDA's $12.93B Hugging Face acquisition 🍵

Concerns: monopoly risks, unfair competition, potential control over ALL open-source AI models

Plot twist: $AMD probably snitched 😂

If this deal goes through, $NVDA literally controls the infrastructure AND the model layer. That's endgame for AI compute dominance.

Kraken x Circle partnership numbers are in — and they're cooking 🔥

Since Sept 2025:

$EURC traded volume hit nearly 1B (some months >100M)
$EURC balances on Kraken exploded from 4M → 75M (18x growth in under a year)
$USDC custody up 30%

Euro liquidity is finally real in crypto. Not just a narrative — actual demand is showing up. If you're not watching $EURC adoption, you're missing the European capital flow meta.

Full case study dropped.

Just ran my crypto taxes through AI instead of those garbage tax services.

Result? I might've overpaid by TENS OF MILLIONS in taxes 🤣

Those automated crypto tax platforms are literally robbing us blind. Always double-check your numbers anons.

$GOOGL cloud play is printing money harder than expected.

If they keep 30% operating profit growth for 5 years straight, we're talking $500B profit scale. That's when capex pays for itself.

Revenue 2x, operating profit 3x, margin hitting 36.2% — profitability is no longer a question mark.

Depreciation? Future problem. Right now the numbers are screaming bullish. 😂

Tonight 8:30 PM - the final battle that decides the Fed's fate. Rate hike probability already at 85%.

Q3 GDP + September PCE + Initial Jobless Claims all dropping at once:

1. Core PCE
Expected: 0.3% MoM (prev 0.2%), 3.1% YoY (prev 3.0%)

2. GDP
QoQ annualized 3.2% (Q2 was 2.2%). September CPI already ran hot at 0.6% MoM / 3.7% YoY - mentally prepared for this.

3. Initial Jobless Claims
Expected: 198-199k, prev 194k. Below 190k = more pressure. Above 210k = relief.

No bad news = good news.

Markets are coiled. Watch liquidity closely. If macro stays sticky hot, risk-off continues. If labor softens even slightly, we might see a relief bounce. Either way, volatility incoming.

$GOOGL has had 3 major pullbacks of 20-30% over the past 4 years. Currently sitting at -28% from its 52-week high.

From a historical perspective, we're likely near the bottom of this correction cycle.

Risk/reward looking interesting here for patient money.

Fed holds rates. Powell's guy Walsh: no inflation spike, no overheating.

$MSFT crushed it +6%. $GOOGL ate shit -10% — first negative cash flow ever. Pure burn mode.

$ORCL ripped +11%. Debt junkie Oracle finally capping capex and projecting positive free cash flow. Turnaround szn?

$SKHY went parabolic +13% to $165. $75B shareholder return program. HBM4 ramping, memory shortage locked in long-term contracts, 80% margins. Absolute monster.

Tonight: $AMZN & $INTC earnings. Watch AWS growth + capex for Amazon. Intel = data center, AI biz, and foundry progress. Could move markets.

Tonight's the night: $AMZN & $INTC earnings could move the entire market.

$AMZN drops Q3 after close, call at 5pm ET:
• Street expects ~$1.96 EPS, ~$202B revenue (+12% YoY)
• AWS is THE metric: last Q grew 37% (fastest in 18Qs), backlog sitting at ~$496B
• CEO already said 2026 capacity sold out, 2027 nearly full. AI biz annualizing >$25B
• Capex guidance raised to ~$220B for the year. FCF turned negative over trailing 12mo
• Options pricing ~6.5-8% move

Key watch: Can AWS hold 35%+ growth? Will 2025 capex guide go even higher? Margins under pressure but growth story intact.

$INTC also reports after close, same time:
• Consensus ~$0.40 EPS, ~$16.5B revenue (+21% YoY)
• Data center & AI CPU demand strong, but PC segment pressured by DRAM costs
• Foundry biz & 18A node progress critical—Google client rumors need confirmation
• Stock's been volatile: smashed estimates last Q but still sold off on guidance
• Options pricing ±9% move

Key watch: Does Q4 guide get raised? Can foundry losses stay controlled while capex ramps?

If Intel can prove the AI datacenter turnaround is real, tonight's the inflection point. Let's see if they deliver or disappoint.

$GOOGL burning $205B this year, $300B next year — when's the payback?

Three revenue streams to cover the bleed:

1. Cloud Computing
Q3 rev $30.7B, operating profit $11.1B. Multi-year backlog sitting at $561B. At current 36% cloud margin → $200B profit potential. That covers maybe 15% of the $500B capex hole over two years.

2. TPU Chips
Contracts locked, but cash flow delayed. $ANT committed $114B+ in future spend to Google, overlaps with cloud revenue though.

3. Search Ads
Q3 rev $96.3B, annualized operating profit $157B keeps the lights on for AI spend. Incremental growth covers another ~15% of capex.

Bottom line: 70%+ gap remains. Profitability is a grind. Payback timeline? Still foggy as hell.

Nasdaq collapse incoming. Watch these 3 levels.

$QQQ just hit 726 resistance and rolled over hard. Dead cat bounce trapped latecomers. First bearish fair value gap on the weekly since 2026 — distribution is real.

If 701 breaks, next stop is July lows at 660. That's another 7% down from here.

$SPY structure looks equally cooked. Weekly support cluster at 758 → 749 → 729 about to get sliced through. 5% more downside if this plays out.

$GOOGL dragging the whole index. Down 20% from 408 highs, sitting at 267–270 range. Daily chart in confirmed downtrend, price rejected under all key MAs. If it closes below 300 consistently, bears fully in control. Only a reclaim of 310–320 flips this short-term.

Once this flush completes, Christmas rally could be violent. But first, pain.

Earnings bloodbath: $GOOGL tanked, $MSFT ripping

$GOOGL straight up missed everything. EPS below, revenue below, and FCF went NEGATIVE $9B. Capex guidance also came in light—market didn't get the confidence boost it wanted. Only bright spot: cloud revenue up 103% YoY, but that's not enough to save the dump.

Chart-wise, watching $295 support closely. Already broke $300, bounce looking weak. Next stops likely $275-$282 if it keeps bleeding. Did wick hard below $290 and reclaimed fast—some bid stepped in, but needs confirmation. If it reclaims $300-$305, short-term selling pressure might ease. Otherwise, this is a falling knife.

$MSFT completely different story. Beat on both revenue and EPS. Cloud up ~48% YoY, enterprise AI demand through Azure and Copilot still printing. They're not over-rotating into speculative AI plays—just milking existing cash cows.

Up 3% AH, kissing 52-week high at $551. If it holds the gap up on open and breaks $551 with volume, that's your breakout confirmation.

So what's the play? Fade $GOOGL on the left side or ride $MSFT momentum?

$MSFT crushing it +2.9% → Revenue $92.3B (beat), +19% YoY. Azure alone pulled $33.2B, up 48%. CapEx came in under $50.7B guidance, FCF positive for the year. Clean execution.

$GOOGL tanking -10% → First revenue AND profit miss in 4 years. $127.58B revenue (slight miss), +25% YoY but EPS down -26%. Google Cloud hit $30.7B (+103%), margins at 36.2%. FCF negative -$9.07B for the second straight quarter. CapEx guidance for next year? Massive increase incoming.

Search ads missed by $2B+ for the first time. AI is eating their core business.

Buffett's cost basis is $310. He's down nearly $3B on this position now.

ETF flows are dead right now. Most flagship $BTC ETFs hitting zero inflow days.

Apathy = bottom signal.

This is when you stack more $BTC, not when everyone's euphoric.

The crowd's asleep. That's your edge.

Mac Studio with M5 Ultra chip dropping at ¥4,243,800 (~$28k USD).

Apple's flexing hard on compute power again. For crypto traders running heavy backtests, on-chain analytics, or AI models locally, this beast could be a game-changer.

But real talk: at that price point, you could stack $BTC, fund a validator node, or ape into the next 100x instead.

Priorities matter. Hardware or bags? 🤔

Fed holds rates steady—no surprise there.

Real alpha is in the dissents and whatever breadcrumbs Warsh drops in the forward guidance.

Watch the dots, not the headline. Policy pivot signals matter more than the hold itself.

Jason Calacanis just told everyone to dump $BTC for AI plays.

Bitwise fired back immediately.

This is the classic tech VC vs crypto native debate playing out in real time. Calacanis sees AI as the next 10x narrative and thinks $BTC is yesterday's trade.

Bitwise obviously isn't having it - they're managing billions in crypto ETFs and know institutional money is still flowing into $BTC as digital gold.

Here's the real alpha: you don't have to choose. AI tokens and $BTC serve completely different purposes in a portfolio. One is narrative-driven beta, the other is macro hedge + store of value.

Watch how this plays out as AI hype peaks and macro uncertainty returns. Smart money holds both.

Bitwise just cranked their $BTC price target to $1.6M by 2036 in their latest CIO memo.

Matt Hougan putting institutional conviction on the table. That's 15-20x from here over 12 years.

Not a meme. Not hopium. This is where the smart money's positioning for the next cycle of cycles.

@Bitwise just cranked their $BTC price target to $1.3M by 2036 in their latest CIO memo

Matt Hougan and team going full send on the decade-long bull thesis

Whether you're a believer or not, institutional players are pricing in scenarios most retail haven't even considered yet

Position accordingly