野原小新

Decided to create a VIP group for the buddies who earned commissions~~~
I'll be sharing my trading strategies in the group~~~
Trading opinions~~~
Trading tactics~~~

Casual streamer~~~ not trading a lot~~
But I hope that the new buddies who earned commissions~~
Can make some profits in this market~~~

Group invite has already been sent~~~
If you missed it, you can check the group chat notifications~~
Or just DM me~~~

How to add the chat room on Binance homepage!!
1. Press and hold the recommended section on the homepage, a menu will pop up → Click on edit homepage
2. Click the little yellow plus sign at the bottom~~ to enter the addable modules interface
3. Choose to add the chat room module
4. To add friends, you can search by Binance ID: for example, my ID number is my commission invite code~~
You can search 1068237774 to add as a friend and then use the chat feature.

July 27 Market Analysis~~

The current market action is consistent with the expectations we discussed earlier~~~
The pullback near 63,600 hasn’t broken through~~~ and it rebounded back above 64,800~~~

Today there will be a pullback~~~ with the pullback support in the 64,200–64,500 range~~~
As long as it doesn’t break~~~ the 8-hour MACD can cross back up~~~ and then the rebound can continue~~~

Today is the opening of the new weekly chart~~ and it’s opened well~~~
From the weekly chart~~ we can still look forward to whether we can see a rebound move~~~

The key resistance ranges are: 65,700–65,900–66,470

The current market is still consolidating upward~~ the 8-hour cycle is in an uptrend~··
Weekly chart bottom divergence~~~

I bought long positions at 64,700 and 63,750 respectively~~~ and I’m currently holding them without reducing~~
Adding to the position still needs to wait until the 8-hour timeframe stabilizes before considering~~

I saw this morning that BitMart was going to shut down. My first reaction wasn’t “another exchange bites the dust”—it was to quickly check the timetable.

The official announcement was very clear: on August 26, it would stop spot, derivatives, and other trading services, and then fully stop operations on January 31, 2027. After the announcement was released, BMX on CoinGecko fell 64.6% in a day.

In the past, I always thought that big exchanges being “suddenly shut down” was something pretty far off. But when I actually saw a platform that had been running for 9 years begin to pack up, I realized that what users should focus on isn’t what the company founder writes on the homepage—it’s whether withdrawals are possible and when positions must be closed.

If your coins are sitting on an exchange, convenience is yours—but when the counter closes isn’t something you get to decide.

My first reaction when I checked the market tonight: prices are tougher than people.

BTC is still hovering around $64,400, up slightly over the past 24 hours; ETH is around $1,885, rising a bit more. The Fear and Greed Index is only 26, even lower than yesterday’s 27.

Prices haven’t kept trying to scare everyone—human emotions have already collapsed first. The most interesting thing now isn’t guessing whether tomorrow will go up or down, but seeing how long this divergence can last: either price drags emotions back, or emotions pull price down.

I won’t pick an answer for the market yet—I’ll just watch who gives in first.

Took a look at the data—stablecoins ran off another 1.3 billion, and the fear index dropped from 28 to 27. BTC is still hovering around 64K; on-chain fees are 2 sat and nobody’s trading.

There’s another thing that stands out—one whale held up 8 months’ worth of ETH, but finally couldn’t hold anymore. All 8,010 ETH were transferred into Binance, for a loss of $10.82 million. Bought it in November last year for $2918—now… you do the math.

I’m not saying that when a whale sells it’s automatically a bottom, but when a large holder that’s been carrying for 8 months starts to cut losses, it at least means this: the patience for this range-bound “digging bottom” phase is almost out.

Fear at 27 isn’t extreme, but with ongoing capital outflows and the ETF still seeing net redemptions, the market isn’t short of bearish reasons. What it’s missing is the kind of buying power that’s willing to put money on the table.

I’m not moving my position today—I’ll keep watching.

#道指下跌逾500点
🥹

I’ve been watching the storage space ever since the day I went from SK Hynix back to the A-share market.

The logic isn’t complicated—HBM is a must-have for the AI arms race. SKHY has taken 56% of the HBM share, and its linkage with Nvidia is real. With a 7x forward PE—cheaper than MU’s 9x—the valuation priced off growth is basically a discount.

The problem is that the market doesn’t recognize it right now. On the first day of its Nasdaq listing, the stock got smashed, and Micron SanDisk followed suit and fell. Panic is consistent—when money rushes out in a herd, nobody pays attention to fundamentals.

My portfolio approach: wait for this wave of sentiment to stabilize, pick the storage names with the highest HBM exposure, and wait for the market to reprice them.

Oh damn, 65K again broke through.

The moment something happened in Iran, Brent oil jumped straight to $100, and WTI also pulled up to $92. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit a new high within the year—risk assets were bled in every direction, and BTC was the first to kneel.

Back when it was around 61K, I said this level had the best value for money. Looking back now, the break above 65K happened faster than I expected. The ETFs are still accumulating—within 7 days they’re about to reach $1 billion, institutional money is charging in, retail investors are panic-selling and fleeing, same old script.

Don’t guess the bottom, don’t buy the dip—wait until the emotions are crushed.

I’ve been closely watching this memory stock lately.

SK hynix listed ADRs on Nasdaq, and it’s day 13. It jumped 13% on the first day—both CNBC and Korean media reported it. Forward PE is 7x, Micron is 9x—the market is pricing in an HBM premium.

HBM is a must-have in AI chips. This is how I understand it: memory is the shovel-and-spade business for AI infrastructure. While you all race to train bigger language models, HBM capacity gets tight—whoever has HBM sets the pricing. The historical pattern of the two major memory players in South Korea is: when supply is tight, don’t go head-to-head with SK hynix.

Some analysts say shortages will only get worse. Whether it’s clickbait or not, I agree with the direction.

On the day it rose 13%, I went back and reviewed the candlestick chart three times.

Took another look at the data in the evening.

308.9 billion in stablecoins, with a net inflow of 1 billion over the past 24 hours. More than in the morning.

FNG is still at 31—no rise, no drop. But the money is coming in—1 billion isn’t made up. In the morning I said, "big players are secretly picking up," and tonight this data makes it even more certain.

On-chain fees are 3 sat—still smooth and unobstructed. No panic selling and fleeing—only silent entries.

The bottom doesn’t call out to you. The bottom speaks with money.

Before seeing this, I was looking around 1670-1710 and going short~~~
Didn't expect 1670 to come that fast~~~
Yesterday I shorted at 1650~~~
Short the head position~~~
I'll add another at 1710~~~

If we keep going short, there's another big wave~~~#SNDK

Are there more and more people on Binance trading US stocks now~~~
Yes, the profit effect is definitely much better than BTC~~~
The volatility is comparable to altcoins' mania~~~

Damn, the $307.9B stablecoins are still getting in, and yet FNG dropped from 33 to 31.

The money hasn’t left, but everyone is more scared now. This combination is uncommon—normally, when capital flows in, Fear rises too; but here, money’s coming in and people are panicking.

Two possibilities: whales are secretly picking up, or retail is getting scared of the drop and cutting losses. I lean toward the former—the total stablecoin amount of $307.9B isn’t something retail can prop up. Who’s buying doesn’t need too much explanation.

On the BTC chain, the fee rate is 2 sat/vB—everything’s flowing smoothly. If you want to leave, you can leave anytime; there’s no congestion.

Money is entering, and fear is spreading. That’s the classic recipe for a bottom range.