TheCryptoDegen

Bitcoin had a feature in 2009 so dangerous Satoshi himself deleted it after one user pointed it out

In the original version of Bitcoin you could send coins directly to someone's IP address

There was no wallet address needed and even worse, your computer would connect to theirs to send the coins through

That meant anyone could see your IP, locate your machine and try to attack it just by sending you Bitcoin

On January 14, 2009 Satoshi decided to test it himself and emailed an early miner named Dustin Trammell asking for his IP

Trammell replied and actually sent it to him

A few minutes later Satoshi connected and sent him 25 BTC with a message that said "Hello"

Trammell answered him with a warning that the feature was insecure and within weeks Satoshi deleted it from Bitcoin entirely

Those 25 BTC would be worth $1.86 million today

It occurred to me that understanding both Bitcoin and the power law resembles the way we understand any complex subject at progressively deeper levels: elementary school, high school, university, and finally the level of active research.

At the most basic level, people see a single power-law line and ask whether the price is above or below it. But the idea that there is no uniquely privileged line—and that the dynamics of the system matter more than its exact price at any particular moment—is already a university-level understanding.

The deepest language is the language of local slopes. What matters most is not simply where Bitcoin sits relative to an average curve, but whether its local scaling behavior preserves the same exponent across different periods and price regimes.

That is the most profound way to understand the Bitcoin power law: not as a static line that price must follow, but as a persistent dynamical law revealed through the stability of its local slopes.

$BTC Once Created 184 Billion BTC

On August 15, 2010, block 74,638 contained a transaction that created:

184,467,440,737.09551616 BTC

Bitcoin’s intended maximum supply was:

21M $BTC

The bug created 8,784× more Bitcoin than the final supply cap.

Cause:

64-bit integer overflow

The transaction created exactly 2⁶⁴ satoshis, causing the validation calculation to wrap around and incorrectly accept the outputs.

Response:

Patch released in about 5 hours
Patched nodes rejected the transaction
Corrected chain overtook the bad chain in about 19 hours

There was no BIP.

The BIP process did not exist yet.

BIP-1 was introduced in August 2011, about one year later.

The chain was reorganized.

The invalid transaction was removed.

The code failed.

The network repaired it.

184B $BTC disappeared.

The 21M limit survived.
$BTC

$BTC Is Coiled Between $60K Support and a $70K Gamma Wall

Spot: $64K
Gamma flip: $61.9K
Put wall: $60K
Call wall: $70K–$72K
Adoption spine: $71.9K
Cycle mean: $89.6K
Power-law trend: $136K

Nearly 45% of current gross gamma expires July 31, potentially weakening the options structure suppressing volatility.

Price is sitting near structural support while trading far below every higher-timeframe valuation clock.

Bill Miller began buying Bitcoin around $200–$700.

By January 2022, Bitcoin and related investments were roughly half his portfolio.

He didn’t allocate half.

He allowed the winner to become half.

Most investors know how to buy.

Very few know how to own.

BTC's Security Compounded Nearly 2× Faster Than Its Price

Since 2010, the fitted power laws show:

Hash rate: exponent 11.19 | trend-implied 1Y growth +85.9%
BTC price: exponent 5.68 | trend-implied 1Y growth +37.0%

But today:

Hash rate: 86.1% below trend
BTC price: 53.7% below trend

Bitcoin’s physical infrastructure expanded far faster than its market value through the CPU → GPU → ASIC era.

The hardware hypergrowth phase is maturing.

But the monetary asset still trades at just 0.46× its long-term fitted curve while the network remains secured by ~1 zettahash per second.

The infrastructure was built first.
The repricing comes next.

George Washington and Satoshi Nakamoto Proved Great Leaders Walk Away

In 1783, he resigned his military commission and returned home.

In 1796, he refused a third presidential term.

Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin, transferred responsibility to other developers, and disappeared.

Both understood the same principle:

A system that depends on one man is not truly free.

A king says:

Trust me.

A decentralized system says:

You do not have to.

A king preserves his power.
A great founder makes his power unnecessary.

About ten years ago, these photos captured the first day in Binance’s Tokyo office. From this empty office, the company has grown into the world’s largest bitcoin exchange.

$BTC Is Building Strength Where Most Investors Aren’t Looking

Spot: $66.7K

Short term:
30-day core flow: −$4.6B
Price strength: 72nd percentile
Flow-price divergence: 98th percentile

Bitcoin is absorbing heavy selling without breaking.

Medium term:
Structural spine: $71.7K
400-day cycle average: $89.9K

Reclaim $71.7K to repair the structure.
Break $89.9K to confirm expansion.

Long term:
P10 floor: $64.2K
Adoption base: $60.1K, up 3.2% in 90 days
Power-law trend: $136K

Most investors watch the price.

The deeper signal is that Bitcoin’s structural base keeps rising while sellers lose their ability to push price lower.

Derivatives control the path.
Flows control the launch.
Scarcity and adaption controls the destination.

Bitcoin reached $60,000 for the first time EVER in 2021

At the time, the 4-year moving average price was $10,000

Today Bitcoin is ~$60,000 again, but the 4 year moving average price is now ALSO $60,000

The day to day price may go slightly lower than the long term average, but eventually it will bounce back up and it'll make much higher highs

Since 2021, the average price is 6 times higher

Going based on the history of how Bitcoin moves, I'm assuming it will be back to $150K, then $300K, then $500K and eventually $1M+

When Bitcoin gets to that point, everyone will tell me that I got lucky, but I didn't

I just used basic math to my advantage while other people relied on feelings
BitcoinReclaims$65K $BTC

On this day in history, 16 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto was afraid of Wikipedia deleting the page of information about Bitcoin because the editors decided it lacked enough "significant third-party coverage to confer notability”.

Nobody knows how many bitcoin nodes exist. The listening ones can be counted, but the silent ones can’t, by design. There could be millions and millions of computers running the Bitcoin software with a fully audited copy of the blockchain protecting it and we have no idea.

$BTC Reclaimed Its P-10 Stress Floor But Remains Far Below Its Modeled Structural Path.

Spot: $64.8K

Bitcoin’s valuation stack:
Historical P10 boundary: $64.1K
Structural adoption base: $60.1K
Modeled structural path: $71.6K
400-day cycle value: $90.1K
Power-law trend: $136K

Bitcoin is now:
1.1% above its P10 stress boundary
7.9% above its adoption base
9.5% below its structural path
28.1% below its cycle value
52.3% below long-term trend

The two clocks explain the disconnect:

400-day cycle clock: falling
1,510-day adoption clock: rising

30-day divergence: 4.6 percentage points
90-day divergence: 9.1 percentage points

The long clock says structural accumulation.
'
Targets:
Reclaim $71.6K to get back on path; break $90.1K to confirm the move toward $136K trend.

Tim Draper Bought What Governments Couldn’t Understand

In 2014, the U.S. government auctioned 29,656 $BTC seized from Silk Road. Tim Draper paid $19 million. Today, it is worth $1.8 billion.

Most people trade $BTC. Draper understood scarcity he bought and held. The gap between those two instincts is everything.

Governments do not recognize what they control. Traders optimize for volatility. Neither fully grasps genuine scarcity: finite supply, rising adoption, and no substitute.

$BTC ranks above land and even verified human trust as a scarce asset.

Draper’s bet was not clever. It was simple:

Hold what cannot be printed.

One of the most important financial decisions you can make is choosing carefully where to deposit your money.

A Bitcoin private key is a 256 bit number.

That means there are 2^256 possible combinations.

Which is roughly equal to the total number of atoms in the entire observable universe.

Near impossible to guess or break into.

Yet most likely every government and organization on earth is trying to break into Satoshi Nakamoto’s wallet.

Which holds about $71 BILLION worth of Bitcoin and a lot of the financial market on its back.

That tells you how insanely powerful having possession of that wallet is.

Which is why no one should ever have access to it.

$BTC IS ABSORBING SELLING ON TOP OF A RISING FLOOR

Spot: $64.1K

Structural base: $60.0K
90-day change: +3.23%
Price remains 6.4% above it

Meanwhile:

30-day core flow: −$4.7B
Core EVR: −2.91%
Flow conditions: 3rd percentile

Yet price strength remains at the 53rd percentile.

Flow-price divergence: +2.69σ
Historical percentile: 97th
Model fit: R² = 0.63

One of the weakest flow environments in the dataset.

A rising structural floor.

And price still refuses to break.

The selling is heavy and downside response is not.

Bullish.

$BTC

The First $BTC Transaction

On January 12, 2009, Satoshi Nakamoto sent Hal Finney:

10 BTC

No exchange.
No market price.
No institutional investors.
No guarantee it would ever be worth anything.

Just two people testing whether digital money could move without a bank.

Three days earlier, Hal had posted two words:

“Running bitcoin.”

That simple test became the first Bitcoin transaction in history.

Every $BTC transaction since traces back to that moment.

Bitcoin did not begin with Wall Street.

It began with one person building and another person willing to believe.

The first known $BTC buyer spent $5.02.

On October 12, 2009, New Liberty Standard sent Finnish developer Martti Malmi $5.02 through PayPal.

In return, New Liberty Standard received:

5,050 BTC.

Implied price:

$0.000994 per BTC

At $64,100, those coins are worth about:

$324 million

The dollar side moved through PayPal, a payment system @elonmusk helped build.

Return:

64 million×
~192% annualized

The first $BTC buyer did not discover the price.

He created the first market price.

$BTC

$BTC Is Sitting at the Point of Maximum Asymmetry

Spot: $63.4K

The market is pricing Bitcoin like the cycle is broken.

The data says the cycle is compressed directly onto a structural base that is still rising.

SHORT TERM:

30-day net flow impulse: −$5.1B
Dealer gamma: −$102M
Gamma flip: $62.9K
Major support: $60K

The launch is not confirmed.

But despite flows ranking in the 3rd percentile, price resilience ranks in the 98th percentile.

That means billions in selling are being absorbed without equivalent price destruction.

MEDIUM TERM: DEEPLY UNDERVALUED

405-day cycle average: $90.5K
Upside to cycle mean: 43%

Fitted adoption spine: $76.3K
Structural repair: 20%

The power-law model fails below one year.

But at the 365-day horizon, it beats a random walk with an out-of-sample R² of +0.48.

Model median one-year return: +71%

LONG TERM: EXTREME ASYMMETRY

5-year model-conditional range:

P10: $231K
Median: $466K

10-year model-conditional range:

P10: $672K
Median: $1.46M

Not guaranteed. Structural failure remains possible.

But markets are set by the marginal seller.

Value is set by adoption, scarcity and time.

Right now, the marginal seller is temporarily overpowering price—

while the structural foundation continues to compound.

Short term: compression.
Medium term: mean reversion.
Long term: monetization of absolute scarcity.

That is a generational asset being mispriced by short-duration capital.

$BTC