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#代币化热潮

Why can't altcoins rise? Don't say it's because of 'lack of money, lack of liquidity'; that's just the surface.

The truth has only two points:

1: The projects lack innovation, all old concepts are just recycled, and no one is willing to buy into 'storytelling' anymore.

2: The valuations are outrageous, with market caps opening in the tens of billions, retail investors get trapped as soon as they buy, who dares to take over?

The result is:

All the funds flood to the top, and 90% of altcoins are ignored;

As soon as the project slightly pumps, it gets dumped, and they simply lie flat and stop playing;

New coins go public and immediately drop below their issue price, faith drops to zero. The current market has completely changed:

There are no longer fairy tales of 'holding with closed eyes waiting for a hundred times return',

Only 'short, fast, and fierce' quick in and out. If you catch a rebound, run; if you can't, you’ll be left with nothing.

Being a bit slower, a bit greedier, means complete exit.

In a nutshell:

The altcoin market in 2025 is not a greenhouse waiting for the wind to come,

But a gladiatorial arena where blood is licked from the blade.

Those who can adapt will eat meat, while those who cannot will have nothing but soup.

Recently, there have been many hot dog meme trends on BSC, but don't hold blindly; you should enter and exit quickly! Recently, one hot trend after another has emerged on BSC. It seems lively on the surface, but the actual operation is quite challenging, mainly revolving around two directions: Binance concepts and Douyin zoo memes. The Binance concept has been more prevalent lately, especially due to the Dubai conference, with mascots like $bibi, $WAGBI, $Executive Xia He, and last night's $1 all related to the event. However, the obviousness of the trends has led to severe dispersion of opening funds, and the concept of 'Yaha Coin' has spawned countless Chinese and English markets, greatly increasing the difficulty for initial participants.

The second wave is also not easy to play; these types of conference trends often lack sustainability. As soon as the meeting ends, the heat dissipates, and many small-cap projects fall silent within two to three days, offering no second chances. Although the leading projects are not dead, the washout is not thorough, and a pullback of less than 70% from ATH is not high in terms of cost performance.

On the other hand, there is the Douyin zoo meme, with a recent emergence of the million-level $小小, which seems stable but is likely just another wave like the previous $茄子. Many friends have compared the expectations of the Douyin zoo to $哈基米 and $恶俗企鹅, but the gap is actually quite large. $哈基米 and $恶俗企鹅 have not only high view counts but have also become widely spread internet memes, penetrating various types of content and scenarios. Therefore, do not equate the expectations of $小小 with them; it is recommended to focus on short-term trading and take profits in a timely manner.

Brothers, a new round of increase is about to begin. Every last month of the bull's tail, Bitcoin experiences a surge, known as the Christmas market ​​​btc

With one strong effort, one becomes weaker, and with three efforts, one is exhausted. The strongest performance was the night before last, followed by last night, and today it's a bit hard to keep going. After touching the bottom at 123, it rebounded to 146.85. So far, there has been no normal pullback, and 146.85 is at the upper Bollinger band for the day. There's no need to add positions unless it pulls back below 140.

The resistance points above 146.85 are 150.75 and 157. If there's no pullback of more than 7 points here at 146, then there will also be a pullback of 8-11 points to 150-154 because 150 is a round number and won't be stable immediately. Therefore, a short opportunity will arise in the range of 150.5-154. Only after stabilizing between 144.25-141.85 will there be another push towards 157.

Next, focus on bsc

Reasons

1. Sister is the co-CEO, it is well known that Sister likes memes
2. I saw a picture saying that Sister mentioned in the meeting that they want to create more interesting Binance memes
3. A while ago, the two alpha coins with low market value already gave signals

Reasons for the surge, BTC's favorable conditions:
1. Vanguard Group opens Bitcoin ETF trading
2. Bank of America approves crypto allocation advice of 1%-4%
3. Expectations for a change in Fed leadership and a shift in easing policies
4. CZ's "pie in the sky" prediction
5. Musk reiterates Bitcoin's energy-based value

Positive signals for Bitcoin

① In the past month, it first stood above the middle Bollinger Band (90100)
② Yesterday, it recorded the largest volume bullish candle in nearly half a month (increase of 5.8%), while the same K-line on November 18 only had an increase of 0.81%

Overall, it is still within this wave of market oscillation range and is attempting to break through the upper boundary, with selling pressure being largely consumed and signs of volume support emerging.

From a technical perspective, there are still two key levels to break through:

① EMA20 (92000)
② The key resistance level of 93500

From a macro perspective, overall news is positive:

① Firstly, Vanguard Capital will open cryptocurrency ETFs and trading on its platform starting in December (assets of 110 trillion)
② The Federal Reserve has a change in leadership, and the probability of interest rate cuts in December has risen to over 90%
③ Bank of America recommends its clients allocate 4% of their assets to cryptocurrency
④ SEC's "Crypto Innovation Exemption" policy: allows for innovative on-chain product development

A wave of favorable policies has emerged, leaving MicroStrategy as the "lamb to be slaughtered." My plan is to first accumulate some spot positions, then add more once we stabilize at 92000 and 93500. If it breaks 88000, I will cut losses; it may not necessarily reverse, but it is worth the risk-reward ratio for BTC.

Looking back at the last bull market, we can understand the market's rhythm more clearly through several key price platforms.

First platform: $25,000. Bitcoin consolidated below this level for 9 months, and breaking through marked the official start of the bull market.

Second platform: $30,000. It went sideways for about half a year, never breaking below the previous platform's high point ($25,000), and after consolidation, the trend continued for about a month and a half.

Third platform: $50,000 (mainly around $45,000). It consolidated for 3 months, also not breaking below the previous platform's top ($30,000), and then rose again for a month and a half.

Fourth platform: $70,000. During an 8-month consolidation, it consistently held the crucial support at $50,000, and then continued to rise for a month and a half.

Fifth platform: $100,000. It went sideways here for 6 months, never breaking below $70,000, but the subsequent trend lasted a full 5 months, with a rhythm noticeably different from before.

During the first four platforms, my trading performance was very good. However, by the fifth platform, I began to clearly struggle and incurred significant losses. At that time, Bitcoin rebounded from $75,000 to $100,000 in just one month; based on my past experience, I judged that $100,000 might be the top. However, from May to October, Bitcoin slowly rose from $100,000 to $120,000 over 5 months, while Ethereum experienced a strong main wave during this period.

Now, Bitcoin has fallen below $100,000 and has not quickly recovered — the tops of the previous four platforms have not been broken. Considering the prolonged slow rise of the fifth platform over 5 months, as well as Ethereum completing its strongest supplementary rise during this time, this stage is likely to be a period of major distribution. #bnb

Pippin has not paid attention since the last time he shorted and got beaten. Now looking at it, the distance from the last short position has multiplied several times, which is exaggerated. Many of these coins keep rising when they go up, and when they go down, a single candlestick goes straight to the bottom.

Yesterday, after the CEO of MicroStrategy stated that they might sell Bitcoin, MSTR plummeted, leading Bitcoin to continue its decline, hitting a low of 83800.

However, MSTR closed with an exceptionally large hammer pattern, which suggests a high probability of a rebound for MSTR in the near future.

Therefore, the probability of Bitcoin continuing to drop further is low; it still has the potential to rebound and break through the 20-day moving average, testing the resistance level of 96,000.

Although I don't have high hopes for $ZEC moving forward, this round, Naweir has shown epic calling power.

Timing: Chen Zhi's 10 billion Bitcoin has been confiscated, although it's not related to privacy, but it's sufficient for storytelling.

Location: He is an early investor with a large amount of chips; plus, the coin has been washed for years, highly controlled.

People: He has a Wall Street background and followers all over the world; a single tweet is like a signal gun.

Missing out on a 10x epic opportunity is truly regrettable.

The recent drop in BTC has reached a low of 84,000 today. Has it hit the bottom?

1) From the order book, the amount of buy orders is relatively small compared to the larger buy orders seen during the previous three rebounds.
2) Four-hour level: the bullish volume is not very strong, only a little more than half of the bearish volume;

Based on the above two points, the price is likely not to have reached a temporary bottom yet, and it is estimated to drop to around 80,500. Let's patiently wait and see. #ETH巨鲸增持

Old Horse's new avatar $santahat, definitely still needs to watch the SOL chain's market, already tripled!

I've said it many times, international events use SOL, domestic events use BSC, because there are more foreigners in SOL and more locals in BSC.

The Spring Festival Gala mascot can be on BSC, but Old Horse changing his avatar will definitely play the leading market of SOL, and people from all over the world will participate in the P!

$giggle was one of the most promising memes before it went live on bn. Why was it considered promising back then?\n\nIt is a charity meme, and the project team has been consistently donating and engaging, and cz has also been actively interacting and promoting it, so at that time, it seemed highly likely that it would go live on Binance's spot and futures market. As I expected, it indeed went live on both futures and spot, and I made a small profit from it!\n\nSince it went to the secondary market, I haven't paid much attention to it. Today, I took another look and feel that this cryptocurrency has already peaked in its future development. Many cryptocurrencies with strong narratives have basically dropped to their lows recently, while giggle is still lingering, so I'm waiting for an opportunity to short it, always feeling that this coin will drop below 50!\n\nLet's verify it over time!

This week's information:

12.1 (Monday): US October PPI, Q3 PCE
12.3 (Wednesday): US November ADP employment numbers
12.4 (Thursday): US weekly initial jobless claims
12.5 (Friday): US September PCE data

ps: The first week of each month generally sees larger fluctuations, be cautiously aggressive and pay attention to risk control. In the year, there is generally a significant drop between the 1st and 5th (or at the latest by the 7th) of each month, and a large drop is expected around 12.4. This morning's significant drop is not included. So today's rhythm is to first bet on a rebound and then short.