Sk34

$MRVL What drew my attention today wasn’t the price, but the volume. In the pre-market session, 4.15 million shares traded—by far the largest among the thirty-plus sample stocks in this research report—exceeding CoreWeave’s 3.27 million shares, and Supermicro’s 1.4 million. And today it had no company-specific disclosure; its earnings report won’t be released until August 27.
A stock with no relevant news put out such a huge amount of volume—usually there are two possible explanations, but the evidence on each side is very lopsided. The baseline explanation is that investors are treating it as a liquidity vehicle for the entire AI semiconductor theme—semiconductor ETFs are strengthening, AI hardware names are broadly rising, and the overnight Korean market was the strongest globally. All of that supports this view. The other explanation is that there’s some as-yet-unannounced information; independent checks found no company disclosures or regulatory filings within the window. I’m keeping this as a non-excludable possibility, but it doesn’t stand as an equal contender to the first.

$LITE The quality of operations, I admit, is the best among these earnings reports tonight. Last quarter’s revenue was $808.4 million, up 90.1% year over year; non-GAAP gross margin was 47.9%, compared with only 35.2% in the same period last year. Revenue for the four quarters was $480.7 million, $533.8 million, $665.5 million, and $808.4 million, with gross margin rising in parallel: 37.28%, 37.65%, 39.02%, and 46.55%. The company itself says it is still clearly under-shipping, and capacity can’t keep up with demand.
But I’m not in. The reasons are all in the valuation section: P/E of 154.65x, forward 50.94x, price-to-sales 25.43x, EV/EBITDA 129.03x, and price-to-book 19.62x. At this level, you need to beat expectations for multiple consecutive quarters along with ongoing upward revisions; the bar to meet is extremely high. The four series of convertible bonds have a total carrying value of $3.183 billion, but a fair value of $19.075 billion—about 30% of the current market value. This economic value belongs to the convertible bondholders rather than common shareholders. The capped call ceiling for the 2032 notes has also long been left far behind by the forward price, and the protection above has already been used up. The fourth-quarter guidance was given back in May; the consensus has been placed at the midpoint, with no cushion.

$RKLB In the past 24 hours, it has fallen from 87.05 to 80.03, a drop of 6.53%. It’s now approaching the intraday low of 79.87.
My view: this decline has reduced some of the earnings expectations, but it still can’t directly be treated as a reason to buy the dip.
RKLB will release its earnings report after the U.S. stock market closes on August 10. What the market truly needs to confirm is not just the quarterly stock price fluctuation, but whether the $2.22 billion backlog of orders can accelerate the conversion, and whether there have been any changes in the progress of the Neutron project.
I’m currently watching RKLBUSDT:
- 79.8 to 80 is the near-term support zone; first, see whether it can stabilize here.
- If it reclaims 82.5 to 83.5, it suggests that selling pressure ahead of the earnings report is starting to ease.