11 years of finance content. 2 Millions Community Founder of SmartViewAI. No. 1 at Binance Blockchain Awards 2025. Crypto, stocks, money habits. Not advice.
The US jobs report drops today at 6:00 PM IST. Here is how to read it in 60 seconds.
Three numbers matter:
1. Jobs added (nonfarm payrolls). August was 162,000. A strong number means the economy is still running hot. 2. Unemployment rate. Last read was 4.1% and slowly falling. 3. Wage growth. Rising wages keep inflation sticky.
Why crypto cares: a strong report gives the Fed room to hike again on Oct 28. Higher rates make bonds attractive and pull money away from risk assets like $BTC and growth stocks.
A weak report does the opposite, until it gets weak enough to bring recession fear.
Markets want a Goldilocks number. Not too hot, not too cold.
I do not trade the first 15 minutes after the release. The spike and reverse trap is real.
Do you stay out during news, or do you trade the volatility?
"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." Warren Buffett said that decades ago. It applies to crypto more than anything.
Look at the last week on Square. One trader bought $QNT after it doubled in a morning and watched it give back 40% by evening. Others got liquidated on $HYPE longs during the unlock. Patience was not the trade of the week for them.
Meanwhile, the quiet person who has been buying a little $BTC every month since 2023 is fine. Not rich, just fine, and calm.
Uptober is here. Let me give you the real numbers, not the hype.
From 2013 to 2025, Bitcoin closed October higher in 10 of 13 years. The average October return was close to 19%.
Then October 2025 happened. $BTC started the month near $119K, went above $126K, and a US China trade shock sent it toward $105K. October closed about 4% down and a seven year green streak ended.
What I take from this: seasonality is a tendency, not a guarantee. It tells you what usually happens, not what will happen.
If your plan only works when October is green, it is not a plan. It is a hope.
Are you positioned for a green October, a red one, or both?
Q3 closes today. Before Q4 starts, I ask my portfolio five questions:
1. What did I buy this quarter that I cannot explain in one sentence? 2. Which position is bigger than I planned because I kept adding on dips? 3. Did I follow my stop loss rules, or did I move them? 4. How much did I pay in fees and taxes, and did I track it? 5. If I had done nothing for three months, would I be better off?
Question 5 stings for most traders. It stung me in my early years too.
An honest review beats a new strategy every single time.
Take 10 minutes tonight and answer these for yourself. Which one was hardest?
Today the US releases PCE inflation, the number the Fed actually watches.
Quick context, because this matters for every asset you hold:
The Fed raised rates on Sep 16 to a range of 3.75% to 4%, the first hike since 2023. Their own projection has PCE inflation at 3.7% this year against a 2% target. The 10 year Treasury yield touched 5.23%, the highest since 2007.
When safe government bonds pay over 5%, every risky asset has to compete with that. Gold, stocks, $BTC and everything else.
A hot PCE print today keeps the pressure on. A cool one gives markets room to breathe before the Fed meets again on Oct 27 and 28.
I am not predicting the number. I am making sure I understand why the market moves when it comes out.
Do you check macro data before trading, or only the chart?
At 12% a year, roughly what Indian index funds have averaged over long periods:
10 years: about 11.5 lakh (you put in 6 lakh) 20 years: about 50 lakh (you put in 12 lakh) 30 years: about 1.75 crore (you put in 18 lakh)
Look at the jump from year 20 to year 30. The last 10 years add more than the first 20 years combined. That is compounding, and it only works for people who do not interrupt it.
Every time you stop a SIP to chase a pump, you restart the clock.
I hold crypto too. This boring engine runs underneath everything else.
How long has your longest running SIP been going?
Past returns are not a promise of future returns. Education, not advice.
The Fear and Greed index is sitting in the 70s tonight. That reads as Greed.
Bitcoin is still about 34% below its all time high of $126K from last October.
Read those two lines together. The crowd feels greedy about a market that is deep in a correction. That is how sentiment works: it follows the last two weeks of price, not the last two years.
I do not use the index to decide what to buy. I use it to check myself. When I feel very sure, I size smaller. When I feel sick looking at my portfolio, I go back to my plan instead of my sell button.
Sentiment is a mirror, not a map.
What number is your personal fear and greed at right now, 1 to 100?
$387.5 million left Bitget last week in the biggest hack of 2026.
Cold wallets were safe, private keys were safe, and users are being covered by a protection fund of over $460 million. Still, withdrawals were frozen for days.
Here is my rule after watching this happen cycle after cycle: exchanges are for trading, not for storing.
Keep what you actively trade on the exchange. Move long term holdings to a hardware wallet you control. Write the seed phrase on paper, never in your phone notes, never in a screenshot.
If a 72 hour freeze on your exchange would hurt you, your setup needs work. Not tomorrow, this week.
Where do you keep your long term $BTC and $ETH holdings, exchange or self custody?
Before you buy your next coin or stock, check if your money has a home.
Here is the simple structure I share with every beginner:
1. Bills account: rent, EMIs, groceries. Salary lands here, fixed costs leave from here. 2. Emergency fund: 6 months of expenses, kept boring and liquid. Not in crypto, not in stocks. 3. Long term investing: SIPs, index funds, and a Bitcoin allocation you can hold for years. 4. Trading and speculation: money you can lose 100% of without changing your life.
Most people skip step 2 and jump straight to step 4. Then one bad month forces them to sell good positions at the worst possible time.
Which of these four is missing in your setup right now? Reply honestly, I read every comment.
Strategy says if #Bitcoin ends 2025 between $85,000 and $110,000, it expects fiscal 2025 revenue of about $7B to $9.5 billion, and net income of $5.5 billion to $6.3 billion. #btc #bitcoin #MichaelSaylor