MacroMicro

👋🏻 Meet MacroMicro — Global Data & AI Decision Platform

Founded in 2015, we started with one belief: economic data shouldn't belong to a select few — it should be intuitive, visual, and accessible to everyone.

What began as a macro data platform has grown into a one-stop financial decision-making ecosystem, now powered by AI to connect economic fundamentals with industry trends and company financials.

📊 100M+ data points, 900K+ interactive charts
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We help you go beyond price charts, understanding why markets move, not just that they moved. From central bank policy to the AI capex cycle to global supply chains, we connect the dots across macro fundamentals, industries and company data.

🔗 Explore MacroMicro: https://en.macromicro.me/

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🇺🇸 August CPI is due in a few hours, and coming a week after nonfarm payrolls beat, provides an important test of whether higher energy prices are feeding into core inflation.

Fed Chair Warsh has said the decision comes down to this print: a core reading broadly in line with expectations supports a hold, a surprise to the upside opens the door to a September hike. Waller has said much the same, and adds that stripping out the imputed non-market services component, underlying inflation already looks better than core suggests, with energy and tariffs not yet showing up as a persistent source of pressure.

Core is expected near 0.2% MoM, which brings the annual rate down to 2.4% from 2.5%. We're not seeing oil, despite renewed Iran tensions and elevated prices, feed through into core goods or services. We lean toward a hold.

Our prediction market implied forecast puts August headline CPI at 3.34% YoY and core CPI at 2.33% YoY.

#CPIWatch

📍 https://en.macromicro.me/charts/154402/us-cpi-yoy-prediction-market-implied-forecast

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🔴 BREAKING: USD/JPY breaks 153, yen strongest since February!

Three things hit at once:
▸ Q2 GDP revised up to 1.4% annualized, vs 1.1% preliminary
▸ August cash earnings +4.7% YoY — beats 3.9% consensus, fastest since 1997
▸ 1M OIS at 1.12%, fully pricing a 25bp hike next week

The most consequential shift in stablecoins is not payment volume, but their emergence as a major buyer of US sovereign debt.

According to Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) estimates, the stablecoin market could reach $2 trillion by 2028. Backing that expansion would require roughly $1 trillion in short-term Treasury bills, up from approximately $120 billion today. That reserve scale would put stablecoin issuers roughly on par with Japan ($1.1trillion) as the largest holder of US debt.

This demand arrives precisely as the Treasury Department alters its debt management strategy. In its August quarterly refunding statement, the Treasury altered its guidance on coupon auction sizes from assessing "increases" to assessing "changes." The shift points toward higher bill issuance and fewer long-dated auctions to suppress the term premium on long-term yields. T-bills already make up 22% of outstanding marketable Treasuries, up from 15% pre-pandemic.

With money market funds sitting near $8 trillion and the Federal Reserve directing maturing MBS principal into T-bills, stablecoins provide an expanding, price-insensitive buyer base. For Washington, digital dollars have quietly become a tool to absorb short-term deficit financing.

🔗 Read more: https://en.macromicro.me/blog/treasury-yields-are-surging-three-ways-out-of-the-debt-trap

📈 AI capex is on pace to cross $1 trillion by 2027 and the supply chain is already showing the strain. Memory and foundry capacity are maxed out, hardware prices are back above 2021 peaks, and pricing power is moving upstream, away from the apps everyone's trading.

We're covering all of it this Sep, with two things unlocked in one plan:
📌 Live Outlook (Sep 11) — our Research VP walks through the $1T AI megatrends live
📌 1-Year Full Access to the AI Supply Chain Hub — 18 exclusive charts across chips, infrastructure and compute

Whether this bottleneck holds or breaks comes down to real demand, not just tight supply.
That's what both are built to help you track.

Track it before the market prices it in. Ends Sep 30.
🔗 https://mmgo.me/xxv4q3

🔴 BREAKING: Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose to 3.00%, the highest level since September 1996.
$EWJ

🔴 65 Months Above Target: Inflation Dominates Warsh's Jackson Hole Speech

"The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the 12-month change in the PCE price index, stands at 3.7 percent, while the six-month change is 4.1 percent."

"on the price-stability side of our mandate, the numbers are more concerning."

"So the Fed's predominant focus right now should be on prices."

"And while this summer's PCE and CPI readings were better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved."

"Over the past 12 months, 54 percent of goods and services in the PCE basket showed price increases above 3 percent. This is well below the post-pandemic highs of about 77 percent, but it remains well above the level of 32 percent in the two decades that preceded the pandemic."

"The responsibility for 65 months of sustained, elevated inflation sits squarely with the central bank. And that is where it belongs."

"Price stability is not self-executing, nor is inflation necessarily mean-reverting."

"We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do."

"But inflation remained too high."

"The comparable measures from the consumer price index (CPI) are also elevated, as are the core measures of both PCE and CPI inflation."

"None of these measures are perfect, but they all tell a similar story: Inflation is running above our 2 percent target."

"The recent rise in overall commodity prices also bears watching."

"Certain sectors—like housing and agriculture—are showing strains. But, on balance, I would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive."

"It's the Fed's job to make sure that inflation expectations do not get unanchored."

"It matters, too, whether the inflation readings of the past five-plus years have seeped into expectations."

$SHY.ETF

📊 The latest Investment Dashboard is out!
Feel free to save it, share it — you'll want this one on hand.

August's asset moves all pointed the same direction: long yields spiked, the dollar sank, and gold rebounded — three separate signals, one shared theme: debt sustainability concerns are back.

Heading into September, the real question isn't whether this pressure fades. It's whether growth (G) is still strong enough to outrun it.

We're breaking it down into 3 themes — full view in the dashboard below.

👋🏻Feel free to share or repost. Follow MacroMicro to stay ahead of market risk before the next move: https://mmgo.me/y6cugk

📈 Bitcoin hit $80,000 for the first time since May 2026. Gold is making the same move.

The Fed has stopped adding T-bill purchases and the Treasury is expanding its long-end buyback capacity. Together those moves ease pressure on short-end funding markets, the same repo channels behind TGCR, BGCR, and SOFR.

Nonfarm and CPI have already taken any near-term hike off the table. Markets are pricing that improvement in now, ahead of the clarity September's FOMC and Jackson Hole discussions are expected to bring.

$BTC

🔴BREAKING: US Treasury increasing size of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated nominal coupon securities.

The Treasury is doubling buybacks for 10- to 30-year securities to at least $4 billion per operation.

Timeline: The new limits are effective from September 9 to November 4, 2026.

Goal: The change aims to boost market liquidity in these longer-dated sectors.

Anthropic’s annualized revenue run rate topped $65B by end-July, up from just ~$9B at year-end.

But momentum has slowed: it rose ~$18B from early May to July, versus ~$17B in just one month from April to May.

Market expectations were much higher, with some third-party estimates previously near $80B.

🔴 BREAKING: Global GDP-weighted 10-year bond yield rises above 5% for the first time since 2002.

🇺🇸 Foreign holdings of US Treasuries fell to $9.299 trillion in June from $9.371 trillion in May. Japan, the largest non-US holder, cut its position 2.3% to $1.116 trillion, well below the November 2021 peak of $1.325 trillion.

Three months of net selling, $56 billion, against twelve months of net buying, $205 billion. The 60-day US-Iran truce expires unresolved and corporate issuance stays heavy. Both point the same direction: heavier issuance meeting thinner foreign demand, with yields the release valve.

Fiscal deficit hits a new high, NY Fed pauses RMP, and 30-year Treasury yields hit a new high.

What’s going on in the Treasury market?

• July fiscal deficit hit a record $432B, up 18% YoY after calendar adjustments.
• 30Y auction yield hit 5.216%, the highest since 2001, despite resilient demand.
• NY Fed RMP pause removes ~$30B of expected T-bill demand.
• The bigger driver: elevated real yields and term premium.
• 30Y above 5.2% raises government, mortgage and corporate borrowing costs.

The Treasury market is increasingly pricing fiscal and inflation risk—not just Fed policy. Read more: https://pse.is/9gwnan

⚠️Breaking: The 60-day U.S.-Iran talks window under the Islamabad MoU, signed June 18, has expired with no implementation.

Trump now claims “total control” of the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority says the strait remains blocked and will not reopen until Iran’s conditions are met.

Prediction markets now put the odds of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by year-end at below 50%.

🚨BREAKING: China’s economic activity weakened in July

Retail Sales: Grew 0.6% YoY (vs. 1.5% forecast, 1.0% prior).
Industrial Production: Expanded 4.5% YoY (vs. 4.8% forecast, 5.3% prior)
Fixed Asset Investment: Year-to-date urban FAI contracted -6.7% YoY (vs. -6.0% forecast, -5.7% prior)
Unemployment: The urban surveyed unemployment rate ticked up to 5.2% from 5.0% in June.

📉Retail Sales Breakdown
Headline consumer spending was weighed down heavily by big-ticket items and housing-related goods:
Primary Drags: Automobile sales plunged -17.0%, followed by building materials (-14.2%), furniture (-8.8%), and petroleum products (-7.6%).
Top Performers: Communication equipment jumped +20.4%, alongside gains in cosmetics (+6.8%), tobacco & alcohol (+6.0%), and food (+5.3%).
Segments: Goods retail rose 0.5%, catering gained 1.4%, and Jan–Jul online retail sales increased 4.6%.

📉Industrial Output Breakdown
Output cooled across all major industry categories from June’s three-month peak:
Manufacturing: Moderated to +5.5% YoY (down from 6.0% in June).
Utilities (Power, Gas, Water): Slowed to +5.0% YoY (down from 7.4%).
Mining: Contracted further to -4.2% YoY (worsening from -2.2%).

Average Bitcoin bear market: 365 days.

Current bear market: 315 days.

Are greed levels finally starting to rise? 👀

#BTC $BTC

🔴 BREAKING: Prediction markets are now favoring Democrats to control both the House and Senate after the midterms amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran war.

Puell has been below 1 since December, eight months. In 2018 and 2022 that meant the same thing: high-cost miners shut off, difficulty fell, and when price recovered they turned the machines back on. The capacity stayed in bitcoin the whole time. It was idle, but not gone.

This time the capacity is being converted. Public miners have announced over $70B in AI and HPC contracts against the same power and buildings they were mining with. Once a site is retrofitted for GPUs and leased out for a decade, it is not coming back to bitcoin at any price.

So difficulty is down 19.9% from the November peak, and a good chunk of that is permanent. That is different from every prior sub-1 Puell stretch, where difficulty snapped back with price.

Puell will climb back above 1 either way, but the miners who make it there will be earning more per unit of hashrate than previous episodes.

📍Data: https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29040/bitcoin-puell-multiple