顾景辞8

Gu Jingci: 8.14—An ironclad big pie, flowing copycats; copycats will eventually go to zero, and tokens will gradually replace copycats

Bitcoin/Ethereum have been repeatedly reminding people these past few days to think about the shorting setup (going short). The 63800 and 1895 shorts that I reminded about again yesterday worked out—after the market dipped last night, it then surged upward, only to spike again and then fall back. If you followed the approach, you should have good returns. Over this period, I’ve reminded many times: the market is moving slowly and requires a bit more patience. Yet many still keep trading tokens and trashy copycat coins, leading to severe losses—I really can’t understand that.

Also, I wonder if everyone has noticed that every time the big pie and ether drop, the copycats are almost like they want to waterfall straight down, and then every so often the copycats rapidly pump up for a moment, making many people mistakenly think the “copycat season” is here.

In fact, if you look at it over time, you’ll find that during last year’s big run-up by the big pie and ether, most copycats basically fell 10x or more—completely abandoned by capital. But many people still cling to fantasies. Another point is that currently, in the US stock market, token-like assets have relatively large short-term swings: they can move dozens of points at the drop of a hat, creating liquidity—and this is what many people interpret as evidence of a bull market. But what they don’t consider is that this “stock token” form, compared to the old-style copycats that didn’t fluctuate much, will gradually eliminate some of the copycats. Meanwhile, the big pie and ether going sideways is often about squeezing out the copycats, helping everyone gradually adapt to tokens with higher liquidity.

Analysis and strategy are for reference only. Risk is your own responsibility. This article’s review and publication do not ensure timeliness; please refer to real-time conditions instead!#Kalshi被令暂停华盛顿州业务 #全球股市逼近历史高位 #ProCap申请比特币金库折价ETF

Gu Jingci: The market keeps trading in a narrow range with ongoing consolidation; even a dog would shake its head

Bitcoin/Ethereum have been stuck in narrow-range consolidation for more than a month. Not only is the movement slow, but the price swings are small too. Honestly, this kind of market is really wearisome. Yet, many people are still losing money in this environment—I truly couldn’t have imagined that. After learning the specific reasons, it became clear: if you can’t stand the loneliness, you can never hold on to your prime forever. Either you trade US stock tokens, or you specifically look for instruments with larger volatility, or if you see that the “big pie” and “auntie” (Bitcoin/Ethereum) have small volatility, you go in with a heavy position and try to gamble it all. Who wouldn’t lose in that case?

What’s happening in the current market is essentially the process of digesting positions. The longer the consolidation lasts, the bigger the subsequent volatility will be. In recent days we’ve consistently been pushing prices higher while holding a bearish view. However, as long as the trend breaks down, you need to follow the move. After all, how long it runs horizontally determines how high it can rise vertically—this vertical move can point up, of course, and it can also point down.

Chasing after rallies and selling during sell-offs: when you make money you can’t hold it, when you lose you keep holding on stubbornly. You make small gains but suffer big losses, and you lack patience—especially patience. At the moment, our short positions at 1895 and 63800 are still open, and the market hasn’t offered an opportunity to add to them. Analysis and strategies are for reference only; risk is your own responsibility. This article’s review and publication may lack timeliness—please refer to real-time conditions for the specifics!#美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉 #美国7月PPI持平 #SpaceX空头持仓降至11%

Gu Jingci: On August 13 CPI, it’s hard to change the downturn in the crypto market; BTC/ETH price action will still likely spike up then pull back

Yesterday, BTC/ETH once again positioned a “buy high and short” strategy and added to the shorts via the Silk Road. In the early hours, price briefly dropped to around 1870 and 63,200. Overall the range wasn’t large, but it still captured a solid move. Current price has been repaired and rebounded, but the rebound strength isn’t strong. On the daily chart, after pushing higher yesterday, price closed with a long upper wick and a bearish close; the trend remains relatively weak. The 4-hour chart shows that late yesterday a single massive bearish candle appeared. Afterwards, support was found around 63,000 and 1,870, and price began to rebound. The last two 4-hour candles are bullish, but the most recent bullish candle’s trading volume has shrunk significantly, indicating that the current rebound momentum is insufficient.

On the daily chart, after falling from the recent high, price is currently in a consolidation and repair phase following the down move. In terms of technical indicators, on the 4-hour chart the MACD DIF line has just crossed above the DEA line to form a golden cross, and the MACD histogram has turned positive, suggesting that short-term momentum has shifted to the upside. However, the volume of the latest bullish candle has contracted sharply and is far below the recent average, showing that the rebound lacks strong buying support.

Trading suggestions: For Bitcoin, around 63,800, continue to open shorts directly; around 64,500, add to the shorts. Targets are around 61,500 to 62,500. For Ethereum, around 1,895, continue to open shorts directly; around 1,920, add to the shorts. Targets are around 1,800 to 1,830, and for “zisun” 65,300 and 1,950.

Analysis and strategy are for reference only; risk is your own responsibility. Article review and publication may not be timely—please refer to real-time conditions! #美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉 #英特尔CEO拟认购1200万美元股份 #SEC向富兰克林邓普顿发不采取行动函

Gu Jingci: Bitcoin/Ethereum short positions succeeded in pushing up and then falling back, dropping further.

The daytime reminder for Bitcoin/Ethereum: the idea of taking short positions on the upward push. Opened the first short at 64,000 and 1,895; added shorts at 1,920 and 64,800. Right now, Ethereum is giving the opportunity to add to the position, with the average entry price around 1,910. Bitcoin isn’t performing well, and there hasn’t been a suitable opportunity.

Tonight the market rose with the help of data and then pulled back and fell. In the early morning, it’s expected there will be further downside room. The short positions can continue to be held patiently. During this period, I believe friends who follow Silk Road will surely have gained a lot. #狗狗币日内涨近3%领涨主流币 #美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉 #CFTC命令Kalshi继续运营

Gu Jingci: Focus on how the 8:30 p.m. CPI data will affect the crypto market

1. CPI higher than expected (inflation is hot) = bearish for crypto
If inflation rebounds, the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut expectations may be delayed or even restarted with rate hikes. The U.S. dollar strengthens and Treasury yields rise. The opportunity cost of holding non-yielding crypto increases, risk capital flees, and BTC and ETH drop sharply in the short term, with altcoins falling even more.

2. CPI lower than expected (inflation cools) = bullish for crypto
If inflation keeps falling, the probability of a rate cut in September increases significantly. The U.S. dollar weakens, liquidity loosens, risk appetite rises, and funds pour into the crypto market. BTC and ETH rally quickly, which can easily trigger a short-squeeze rally.

3. CPI exactly matches expectations = neutral, range-bound trading
No expectation gap; capital holds back. Price fluctuates up and down in the short term, quickly returning to the original market trend, with limited volatility.

#美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉 #CFTC命令Kalshi继续运营 #Korea’s KOSPI jumps nearly 5% as buy-side momentum kicks off

Gu Jingci: 8.12 evening CPI data is coming—plus Bitcoin/Ethereum trading strategy and market analysis

Bitcoin/Ethereum—In previous setups, we repeatedly planned to push up first and then hold short positions. In the early-morning move, price dipped to around 63,200 and 1,850; overall room was fully opened. Now the market has rebounded and surged again, followed by repeated oscillation. Honestly, over this period the overall volatility has been there, but the move is too slow, causing many people to lose patience. Tonight CPI data is coming—mainly reflecting last month’s inflation. Looking back, with oil prices rising last month and ongoing tensions between Iran and the U.S., the outlook remains unchanged: a push higher followed by a pullback. The 4-hour chart shows that after short-term support was gained in the early morning, price rebounded, but the rebound momentum has weakened. The latest candlestick is a small bullish candle, and trading volume has shrunk.

On the daily chart, a strong bearish candle with increased volume appeared earlier. Then a weak rebound followed, forming a repair of the prior selloff, but overhead selling pressure is still present. For technical indicators, the DIF line is still running below the DEA line. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram remains in negative territory but continues to contract, indicating weakening bearish momentum and a short-term trend toward a potential golden cross. During the recent rebound, volume has gradually declined, suggesting insufficient buying power and casting doubt on the rebound’s sustainability.

Trading suggestions: For Bitcoin, enter a short around 64,000 and add shorts near 64,800. Targets are around 61,500 to 62,500. For Ethereum, enter a short around 1,895 and add shorts near 1,920. Targets are around 1,800 to 1,830, with 65,500 and 1,950 as further references.

This analysis and strategy are for reference only. Risk is your own responsibility. The article review and publication may not be timely; the real-time market prevails! #美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉 #英伟达将限制5000亿美元AI融资敞口 #SEC或最快周五推代币化股票豁免

Gu Jingci: Bitcoin/Ethereum, SOL, UNI short space is good, but SNDK space isn’t good

The overall short space for Bitcoin/Ethereum is quite good. However, SOL and UNI have even better overall space—especially the short idea that UNI has consistently emphasized in recent times. As of now, the market has rapidly fallen again today to around 3.68, and the overall potential is evident. #美国7月CPI与PPI数据本周出炉 #参议院推迟CLARITY法案投票至9月 #MoneyGram将现金加密兑换扩展至Solana

Gu Jingci: Gold XAU Trading Strategy Analysis

For gold, the daily chart has seen multiple consecutive bullish days. Currently, the four-hour chart has surged high and then pulled back to decline, closing with a large bearish candle that breaks below the previous four-hour low. The trend has weakened somewhat. In addition, the daily chart is gradually entering a topping phase, and it is still possible to look for selling on rallies.

Trading suggestion: Go short around 4385-4400 for XAU. Target around 4300. Zisun 4440

#贝莱德加拿大推出比特币关联ETF #英特尔拟扩大股票发行募约200亿美元 #韩国最高法院拟允许冻结加密资产

Gu Jingci: SNDK, SOL, UNI trading strategy analysis

The market is currently in a downtrend; try to raise the entry and go short.

SNDK: short near 1260-1270, target around 1210, cousin 1285

SOL: short near 76.5-77.5, target around 73, cousin 78

UNI: short near 4.02-4.05, target around 3.9-3.85, cousin 4.1

Analysis and strategy are for reference only; risks are your own responsibility. Article review and publication do not guarantee timeliness; use real-time information for specifics!#贝莱德加拿大推出比特币关联ETF #英特尔拟扩大股票发行募约200亿美元 #韩国最高法院拟允许冻结加密资产

Gu Jingci: 8.11 Bitcoin/Ethereum Trading Strategy + Market Analysis

Bitcoin/Ethereum: I’ve reminded you multiple times before about the strategy of “buy the rally and short” and “add to shorts.” The market kept rallying upward, but eventually dropped to around 63,800 and 1,870. Overall, the available space is clearly visible. At the moment, after the decline, the rebound strength hasn’t been strong. There was multiple high-level consolidation; now, after breaking down, the rebound lacks momentum—this looks like a further leg of the downtrend. The market still has room for further downside. On the 4-hour K-line chart, after forming short-term tops around 1,930 and 65,300, last night saw a large red bearish candle with heavy volume, confirming the short-term downtrend. Now the market is again ranging; the latest K-line has a long lower wick, indicating there is some buyer support below.

Technical indicators: On the 4-hour chart, both DIF and DEA are running below the zero line, and DIF crosses below DEA to form a death cross. The MACD histogram is negative and continues to expand, indicating strong bearish momentum. Both the 4-hour chart and the daily chart show that last night’s drop came with a noticeably increased trading volume, suggesting market panic and heavy selling pressure. Recently, volume has slightly shrunk, indicating short-term selling pressure has eased somewhat, but buying power has not yet strengthened significantly.

Trading recommendations: For Bitcoin, continue shorting around 64,300–64,800, targeting 62,000–63,000. For Ethereum, continue shorting around 1,885–1,900, targeting 1,800–1,830. Analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please manage risks on your own. This article is not subject to real-time review and publication; actual conditions may differ—refer to live market data. #贝莱德加拿大推出比特币关联ETF #英特尔拟扩大股票发行募约200亿美元 #韩国最高法院拟允许冻结加密资产

Gu Jingci: Range-bound, range-bound, keep range-bound

Lately, Bitcoin/Ethereum have continued to move sideways and fluctuate without making a clear trend. Are they going to stay range-bound until next Wednesday evening when the CPI data comes out? That would be interesting. The data next week is destined not to be good—so it remains to be seen whether this turns into a rebound after a bearish news “hit.” During the past few days of sideways trading, focus on whether price can break above the daily highs around 65500 and the 1950 area. As long as there is no effective breakout and a sustained hold, treat everything as a sell from high levels and patiently wait for the market to drop. The U.S. stock market keeps setting new highs, the conflict between Iran and Israel continues, gold has surged in the short term, inflation remains high, and midterm elections are coming up—along with a series of other factors. The market is expected to drop again, but you still need to manage the trend swing positions. #BIP110软分叉尝试启动 #韩国拟放宽加密服务商大股东规则 #XRP守住1美元

Gu Jingci: Bitcoin/Ethereum this week’s range is narrow (8.8), liquidity is extremely poor

During last night’s market rally for Bitcoin/Ethereum, I reminded again that shorting around 1935 and 65,300, and adding shorts, is the idea to consider. This week the market has mostly been trading sideways and consolidating; the overall range is very small and liquidity is poor, with no clear trend. Geopolitical developments have caused oil prices to fluctuate, which boosts inflation expectations and activates demand for gold as a store of value and a safe-haven. Meanwhile, the U.S. July nonfarm payrolls came in unexpectedly weak, severely damaging expectations for rate hikes, leading to both U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar falling. With these two forces combined, gold recorded its best single-week performance in seven months. But in the crypto market, after being pushed higher from low levels, it has continued to trade sideways with no particularly notable performance.

Going forward, the key thing to watch is how next week’s CPI data feeds back into the crypto market. Honestly, this kind of narrow-range sideways consolidation is really a test of patience. A lot of the time, once people lose patience with this kind of market, they jump into trading altcoins—especially those with larger price swings—which often makes it even harder to control positions. Over the past few days, we’ve also been trying to do some short-term “pump” plays with proportionally more gains on certain coins—for example, pushing ADA up to around 0.21, or doing the same during UNI’s rally. But there’s no need to do this kind of altcoin move more than two or three times per month; fixating on these types of altcoins usually won’t lead to good results. With these two coins pumped, you can also consider entering short orders; if they break above the high, then exit/stop out.

When Bitcoin/Ethereum are trading in a sideways range, you can only be patient and wait for a pullback and further decline—after all, next week’s data is about to come out, and the CPI data also reflects July’s figures, while last month saw a big surge in crude oil, which means inflation was destined to be pushed higher. Analysis and strategy are for reference only; risk is your responsibility. This article review and publication process does not ensure timeliness; actual performance will be subject to real-time conditions! #美国7月非农意外下降 #Alphabet拟发行250亿美元债券 #SpaceX’s market value reaches $1.613 trillion, surpassing Meta

Gu Jingci: Short directly on Bitcoin/Ethereum pump, add to short positions

Bitcoin/Ethereum pumped again in the evening, but Bitcoin overall did not break through the upper resistance level. Go short directly as the market rises to around 65300 and 1935, and add to short positions. Look for a sharp drop in the evening and early morning. Set the extreme stop-loss around 65800 and 1950. #SK海力士拟191万亿韩元投建M17工厂 #东证拟设重大业务变更再审查制度 #布伦特原油上涨3.8%

Gu Jingci: 8.7 Bitcoin/Ethereum Trading Strategy with Market Analysis

In the past few days, liquidity in Bitcoin/Ethereum has been extremely poor. Overall price fluctuations have been relatively small, and the follow-through of both long and short positions has been weak. There is pressure above and support below. In terms of candlestick patterns, the 4-hour chart shows that after a prior rebound from a bottom with a surge in volume, the price has been consolidating at high levels and experiencing slight pullbacks. The most recent several 4-hour candles are mostly small real bodies with long wicks, indicating that the market is divided between buyers and sellers in this zone and that upward momentum has been weakening. The daily chart shows a slight pullback or sideways movement, forming patterns similar to an “inside/outside pregnancy line” or a doji-cross, suggesting that the short-term upward momentum has slowed down.

Regarding technical indicators, both the DIF line and DEA line are trading above the zero axis, and the MACD histogram is positive, indicating that the overall trend still leans bullish. However, the DIF line has been trending downward recently, and the MACD histogram bars are gradually shrinking, showing that short-term upward momentum is weakening. For the daily moving average indicators, the current price action is hovering and consolidating around the moving averages. Going forward, the key focus is the daily highs around 65600 and the 1936 zone, where resistance is likely. Near these resistance levels, consider selling/entering short on bounces, and possibly taking additional short positions if price is pushed higher to “fill the position.”

Trading suggestion: For Bitcoin, enter short around 64500 to 65000, targeting 62000 to 63000. For Ethereum, enter short around 1910 to 1920, targeting 1830 to 1860. You can sell around 65600 and 1940. This analysis and strategy are for reference only—risk is your own responsibility. The article review and publication may not be timely; the real-time situation prevails! #东证拟设重大业务变更再审查制度 #布伦特原油上涨3.8% #美元有望创两周最佳单日表现

Gu Jingci: 8.5 Bitcoin/Ethereum Evening Trading Strategy with Market Analysis

In recent days, Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen overall price range narrowing and extremely poor liquidity. Even the overall range hasn’t been wider than weekends, which is a sign that after short-term consolidation a breakout/turn is likely coming soon. In the short term, Bitcoin has been overall stronger than Ethereum; the altcoins have been mixed with both rising and falling, and the continuation of both long and short pressure is not strong. Although U.S. stocks keep hitting new highs and at one point news releases from the U.S. and Iran provided some positive support, they have not driven an effective upside move in the crypto market. After good news fails to push prices higher, the outlook is likely that upward pressure will weaken and price may drop and fall. From the daily MA (moving average) indicators, the resistance zone around 1880 to 1890 and near 65,000 is where the moving averages are tangled and stacked. Without a clear breakout with sufficient volume to hold above it, we should not look for sustained long positions.

The 4-hour chart shows multiple attempts that surged then pulled back. There is selling pressure overhead, indicating that bullish momentum is insufficient; rebound momentum is weakening and the market has entered short-term consolidation. Technically, on the 4-hour MACD, the DIF line has moved upward to cross above the DEA line forming a golden cross. The MACD histogram has turned positive and expanded, suggesting stronger short-term upward momentum. However, both DIF and DEA are still below the zero axis, indicating the overall trend remains relatively weak. Since the decline from the prior high, there has been repeated side-to-side oscillation without an effective break above the high. The pattern during the fall looks like a continuation phase.

Evening trading suggestions: For Bitcoin, go short around 64,600 to 65,000, with targets near 62,000 to 63,000. For Ethereum, go short around 1,880 to 1,890, with targets near 1,780 to 1,820, and at 1,930.

Analysis and strategy are for reference only. Please manage risks independently. The article’s review and publication may not be timely; rely on real-time conditions! #美ADP7月私营就业逊预期 #美国ISM服务业指数升至54.1 # Korea’s tax reform not postponed; crypto taxation not delayed

Gu Jingci: 8.3 Bitcoin/Ethereum Evening Trading Strategy + Market Analysis

Bitcoin/Ethereum have continued to trade in a narrow range over the weekend, with multiple spikes that have been followed by sell-offs—clear resistance is visible above. Since we have continuously positioned short orders after raising our entries, the overall space has been within view. Friends who have been following the Silk Road can capture a solid amount of space as well. Currently, the market is constantly stabilizing the price action by leveraging news catalysts, which will undoubtedly increase the risk going forward. On the daily timeframe, bulls and bears keep whipsawing, but the lows keep appearing. Looking at the MA moving average indicators, the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day MA lines have all turned downward, and the trend has not changed. Resistance is divided into the 63,900–64,500 area and the 1,880–1,890 area, indicating that overhead pressure remains明显.

Evening trading suggestions: For Bitcoin, short directly around 63,800–64,300, targeting 61,000–62,000. For Ethereum, short directly around 1,870–1,880, targeting 1,780–1,820.

Analysis and strategy are for reference only—risk is your own responsibility. Article review and publishing do not have timely coverage; the live market prevails! #Coinbase溢价连续77天为负 #Coldcard漏洞被盗1367枚比特币 #Oil plummets 9%

Gu Jingci: Aug 2 Bitcoin/Ethereum Early-Session Trading Strategy with Market Analysis

Bitcoin/Ethereum has been laying out short positions multiple times before. Since the early morning hours, prices have dropped steadily to around 1820 and 62,200. The overall room for downside is clearly visible. Currently, the market has made a brief rebound aided by Trump’s comments again. For this kind of news, it’s essentially empty talk with no real impact. As daily highs keep being pushed lower, the trend itself has already changed—this is only a rebound driven by an oversold reaction to the news. In the 4-hour chart, the price recently has undergone two large-volume bearish candles, after which there is now a rapid rebound. However, overall price action still remains within a downtrend. The early-morning candlestick has a long lower wick, indicating some buy support at lower levels, but it has not been able to reverse the broader bearish momentum.

On the daily chart, two consecutive large bearish candles with huge volume appeared earlier, showing strong selling pressure in the market and confirming a bearish trend from the short to the medium term. From the technical indicators on the 4-hour chart, both the DIF line and DEA line are running below the zero axis, and the DIF line is below the DEA line. The MACD histogram is negative, indicating the market is in a bearish (short) trend. Although the latest MACD histogram negative value has slightly narrowed—possibly signaling a slowdown in the downward move in the short term—the overall bearish structure remains unchanged. Moreover, during the selloff over the past two days, trading volume increased significantly, further confirming that selling pressure is heavy and that the downtrend is supported by volume.

Trading recommendations: For Bitcoin, go short directly around 63,500, targeting 61,000 to 62,000. For Ethereum, go short directly around 1,880, targeting 1,780 to 1,820. #比特币挖矿难度较年内高点降14% #COMEX黄金跌1.41%至4107.2美元 #Coldcard vulnerability was exploited, 594 BTC stolen