Dolphin晴竹

🥳✨$BNB ✨TO THE MOON🚀

📷 @Richard Teng @Yi He #BNBChain

After breaking below 75k, it hasn't climbed back above that level since this morning. $BTC is still hovering around 74.8k, and $ETH is grinding around 2,140. This morning I thought it was just a wick, but it's still down here at noon.

The weekend sell-off was attributed in this morning's post to the midterms, but AI was also half the story. On Sunday night, Nvidia announced an independent investigation into CEO Jensen Huang over his ties to an executive at a chip buyer accused of espionage. Congress also wants him to give a closed-door briefing on the 18th. The leader of the AI narrative has run into trouble of its own, and the aftershocks of last Thursday's AI stock plunge haven't subsided yet.

Last night, $850 million was liquidated across the crypto market in 24 hours, mostly long positions.

$BTC $ETH

BTC held flat at 76,000 for the whole weekend, then broke down on Sunday night.

$BTC A wick plunged to 73,500, its lowest since August. $ETH had it worse, dropping over 5% in a day and touching a low of 2,060. For five weeks, it’s been quietly losing just two or three percent a week, grinding from 86,000 down to 75,000. I really didn’t expect it to drag on this long.

BTC is now hovering around 74,700, just below Strategy’s average cost of 75,451. The weekly candle has also closed, marking the fifth consecutive red candle—the third time since 2017.

Reuters says the market is worried that the new Congress will tighten regulations after the midterm elections. Whether that’s true or not, that’s what the market looks like.

Tomorrow night at 21:30, October’s CPI data comes out.

$BTC $ETH

A heads-up for anyone with an account in France: Binance France has sent an email saying accounts will be closed at the end of the year.

On December 31, all accounts under the French entity will be closed. Starting November 29, accounts with remaining funds will be charged a monthly management fee of 0.025%, with a minimum of 10 USDT. If an account has less than 10 USDT, the entire balance will be deducted. Deposits have already been disabled, but withdrawals are still available. The official statement says assets are safe and can be withdrawn as usual.

The reason is that Binance didn’t obtain a MiCA license and missed the June 30 deadline; its registration in France expired on July 2.

I checked, and fortunately this only affects the French entity—it has no impact on global operations. If you have an account in France, withdraw your funds before the end of the year so you don’t end up paying management fees for nothing.

#Binance

Russia says retail investors can buy crypto now. I thought it was a big deal, but it turns out you can buy at most 300,000 rubles per year through each channel, roughly $3,700—less than 0.05 of $BTC . You also have to pass an exam before buying.

There are only three you can buy: $BTC , ETH, and USDT. The rules take effect on November 17, and qualified investors have no limit.

With a limit like that, anyone who really wants to stock up on crypto will have to find another way.

#BTC #MarketAnalysis

Brent fell from 113 to a little over 93 this week, then bounced back to around 99. It was enough to make my head spin.

It plunged 9% in a single day on Wednesday, then bounced back for two days straight on Thursday and Friday. Even so, it was still down more than 10% for the week—the worst week since 2020. After the election, the market figured things might ease between the U.S. and Iran, and all the gains from the earlier rally were wiped out at once. The global surplus of 1.4 million barrels a day in October was also weighing on prices.

Interestingly, reports of tanker attacks around the Strait of Hormuz kept coming, and shipping capacity is still below 60% of normal. That helped keep prices from plunging further. WTI was much the same, hovering around 91.

#原油 #MarketAnalysis

Chip stocks bounced back on Friday, but Bitcoin stayed put. The contrast has me a little confused.

The Nasdaq rose more than 1%, and AMD surged 11% in a single day. After plunging 5.5% on Thursday, it at least clawed back some ground on Friday. But $BTC spent the whole night bouncing between 75,000 and 76,000, and closed around 76,000—about where it ended Thursday. In other words, chip stocks did their thing, while Bitcoin barely budged.

The 75,600 level is an awkward one: it was about where the market bottomed on election night, and it’s also roughly where the 50-week moving average sits. Bitcoin barely held above it at Thursday’s close, then dipped below it again during Friday’s session. After the nonfarm payrolls came in at 165,000, the odds of a rate hike in December had climbed to nearly 80%—hardly good news for risk assets.

U.S. stock markets are closed for the weekend, but crypto markets aren’t. For the next couple of days, Bitcoin is on its own.

#BTC #MarketAnalysis

Over 12,000 ZEC, worth around $16 million, became immovable at around 10:30 this morning.

NU7 activated at block 3543405, cutting block times from 75 seconds to 25 seconds. 60% of transaction fees will be locked up first, then gradually released back into rewards over the next few years. The oldest privacy pool, Sprout, has been shut down completely—the coins in it can no longer be transferred, even with the private keys.

$ZEC is now hovering around 1,310, basically unchanged over the past 24 hours. I thought such a major upgrade going live would at least move the price a bit, but there was no reaction at all.

#ZEC #MarketAnalysis

This is just too abstract. Yesterday they were saying storage stocks were diverging, and today the whole sector got absolutely crushed.

SanDisk fell 22% in a single day, Micron dropped more than 17%, and SK Hynix more than 13%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 12% in one day, its worst since March 2020. The Nasdaq followed with a 5.5% drop, officially entering correction territory, while the S&P 500 also had its worst single day since April.

The AI rally had just gotten too hot. After the election, the outlook shifted, and expectations for data centers were reassessed. Chips took the first hit. On top of that, word got out that a $4.5 billion Micron plant in Taiwan had halted construction due to a labor dispute, making matters even worse.

The nonfarm payrolls report is due at 9:30 tonight, so I doubt anyone will be sleeping easy.

#美股 #Semiconductors

$UNI That drop was brutal—down more than 10% in a day, and back around 6.8.

The broader market was already weak last night. BTC fell back to around 75,000, and ETH was down more than 7%. It’s no surprise that more volatile coins like UNI fell even further.

I looked around but didn’t see any news specifically targeting UNI. It seems to have mostly been dragged down along with the broader market.

#UNI #MarketAnalysis

At this point, $NEAR has dropped nearly 10% in a day, with the current price around 3.79. It was still hovering around 4.2 during the day, but plunged straight to around 3.75 overnight.

I don’t think this weakness is just on its own—BTC has also slid to around 77070, down more than 4% in a day. ETH is around 2290, down nearly 6%, while NEAR is among the hardest-hit.

The 3.8 support level mentioned in today’s analysis is now right underfoot.

#NEAR #MarketAnalysis

12,226 $ZEC will become immovable around 10:30 tomorrow morning.

The NU7 upgrade activates at block 3543405, invalidating legacy v4 transactions. Coins in Sprout, the earliest pool, can no longer be transferred—even with the private key. There were still 12,226 coins in the pool this morning, worth around $16 million at roughly $1,300 each.

My first reaction was that this upgrade is pretty harsh. Reducing block times from 75 seconds to 25 seconds is a good thing, but the coins in the old pool are truly locked up. I have no idea how many people didn’t manage to move theirs in time.

ZEC is currently around $1,300. It was at $1,319 earlier today, but has already pulled back a little.

#ZEC #Market Analysis

Gold surged straight past 4,100 today, peaking around 4,146—the first time in half a month.

The past two days have been no joke. Yesterday, it climbed back above 4,000 and gained over 3%; today, it pushed higher again, rising around 1.6% in a single day. The dollar weakened and Treasury yields fell, giving gold prices some relief.

Tomorrow night at 9:30 p.m., the nonfarm payrolls report is due. The consensus is for around 60,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.2%. ADP reported 86,000 jobs first, a little stronger than expected.

#黄金 #Market Analysis

Riot, the mining company, sold more than 10,000 coins in a single quarter. The numbers in its third-quarter report make for interesting reading.

It sold 10,599 coins in Q3, cutting its holdings from 11,380 at the end of June to 2,418 at the end of September—a drop of nearly 80%. It sold 20,264 coins in the first nine months of the year, bringing in roughly $1.5 billion. Most of the money went toward building AI data centers, and it also signed a 15-year lease for 910 MW of capacity.

The timing is worth clarifying: all the sales happened in Q3, but the report only laid out the figures yesterday. That’s a substantial amount, in my view. While $BTC is still hovering around 80,000, miners are turning their coins into computing infrastructure. That contrast is more interesting than the price itself.

#BTC #Market Analysis

Whoa, $ZEC is up more than 11% again today, trading around 1319, after briefly hitting 1350.

This rally is a continuation of yesterday’s move. Today is the day the NU7 upgrade is activated, cutting block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds. The amount issued per day stays the same—it just means confirmations are faster. Yesterday it was hovering around 1184; today it moved straight above 1300, outperforming the broader market by quite a bit.

It’s still surging on the day of the upgrade, and 1300 looks to have held as support today.

#ZEC #MarketAnalysis

The Dow rose 3% overnight, while SanDisk fell nearly 8%.

I found the divergence overnight quite interesting. The broader market rose across the board after the election results were settled, but storage stocks went the other way, all falling together. Micron dropped 7%, SK Hynix fell more than 5%, and the semiconductor index was down a little over 3%. SanDisk had gained nearly 5% yesterday, but today it did a complete U-turn.

The market keeps circling back to one concern: after the election, could data center construction face some hurdles? Storage stocks were among those hit.

#美股 #Semiconductors

At 7.78 now—this move, $UNI , pushed straight up to the intraday high. It was still hovering around 7.49 during the day, then jumped another leg higher in the middle of the night, gaining over 6% on the day. This move doesn’t look like a slow grind up to me; it feels more like the daytime rally hadn’t run its course, and it got another push for good measure. 7.49 was still resistance during the day, but by midnight it had become support.

#UNI #MarketAnalysis

I’d just finished writing the afternoon piece, and $NEAR still hadn’t climbed back above 4 yuan. By evening, it had shot right past that level. It’s now around 4.22, up more than 9% on the day. Intraday, it climbed steadily from 3.69 to 4.23, still hovering near the high.
This move looks more like it rode today’s broader rebound. DeFi as a whole is recovering, and I haven’t seen any new developments specific to this asset.
This afternoon, 4 yuan was still a ceiling. Now it’s become a line beneath its feet.

#NEAR #MarketAnalysis

Earnings per share came in at $0.84, versus expectations of just $0.37—at first glance, Circle’s Q3 results were a real beat.
Revenue totaled $865 million, up 17% year over year, and net income was $226 million, up 5%. USDC on-chain transaction volume reached $13.9 trillion, up 49%.
But breaking it down, it looks a little different: core reserve income was actually down 8% to $658 million. Of the additional revenue, $182 million came from the Arc presale. The company also laid off 5% of its workforce.
Average USDC in circulation was $73.3 billion, up 8%—that part was genuine growth.

#CRCL #US stocks

Gold really didn’t hold back this time, surging above 4,000 during the day.

I saw it hovering around 3,930 this morning, but once the election results came out and the dollar weakened, it kept climbing. It gained more than 2% on the day, making it one of the clearest moves in today’s markets.

Interestingly, U.S. stock futures were still falling this morning, while gold had already taken off. It was pretty clear that investors were looking for somewhere to shelter their money.

The ISM services data is due at 11 p.m. tonight. In the run-up to the U.S. market open, gold will probably remain firmly in everyone’s sights.

#黄金 #Market Analysis