灯塔说

The CPI data combination I lean toward most is:
Headline YoY 3.4% and MoM 0.4%;
Core YoY 2.4% and MoM 0.2%.
This points to prices rising more quickly overall, but with relatively moderate core inflation.
The conclusion is that it either meets expectations or comes in short of expectations (which would be favorable for a rebound in the market).

Also, if tonight’s CPI data is strong, the expectation for a September rate hike will rise further, and Vaish probably won’t be able to withstand the pressure.
Moreover, the oil price is set to start rising sharply in September; in August it was relatively mild, and the expected value is already much higher than the prior figure. The likelihood of coming in above expectations is low.
$BTC

Yesterday the U.S. bond market and the skyrocketing oil prices made the market worry again
The probability of a rate hike in September rose to 72%
The impact of a rate hike is persistent, so we still need to stay alert

Right now everyone is watching tonight’s CPI data; if the data proves strong again,
I’m afraid the market won’t be able to hold and will push for another rate hike

On the technical side, as long as 762 hasn’t been broken,
I can continue to look for longs in the higher range
If it breaks below, I’ll look to buy again in the 73–72K area afterward

For gold, I still consider support around the 42-leading level

Keep the expectation that the Fed will maintain rates unchanged—so long as profitability remains stable,
the market will return to strength!
$BTC $XAU

Under the pressure of strong data and high oil prices,
BTC and gold market trends are both being suppressed.
Watch the key watershed level at 76.2k.

If it breaks below, you’ll need to consider waiting for a deeper pullback to buy.
Or, it’s still around the strong support near 72K.
$BTC

US August PPI year-over-year growth exceeded expectations, still far above the Fed’s inflation target
US wholesale prices rose in August
The released PPI report could play an important role in the rate decision the Federal Reserve is about to make
Data showed that after seasonal adjustment, August PPI increased 0.4% month-over-month, matching market expectations, and rose 5.4% year-over-year—still far above the Fed’s 2% inflation target, and 0.1 percentage point higher than market expectations.
Rate-hike expectations are still rising!
$BTC

It seems like the big cake is getting harder to go up now
But it’s already very resilient
This is just a healthy correction
$BTC

This upsurge once again caught the lowest point. Trading recap:

Yesterday, due to a decline in expectations of further rate hikes, the US dollar fell, long-term Treasury yields for the 30-year tenor dropped, and both the BTC and gold markets rose, breaking above the prior consolidation range. This round of macro-driven narrative tailwinds is continuing. Therefore, the mid-term bullish view of 96–97K remains unchanged. Earlier, I shorted gold at the previous high. I took profit around 4300 and flipped to go long early, and I also went long on the “big pie” around 76300. Last Friday, Woesh’s speech served as a reminder that near-term downside pullbacks are an opportunity—its value has appeared again.

Although the daily chart resistance zone at 82300–82800 is high, yesterday’s breakout above 80K, and the four-hour chart returning to a strong structure, suggests that today we should watch for a pullback and hold in the 79300–80K area. After that, the primary approach is still to go long on dips.

Tonight we have the first important nonfarm payroll data release of September. The day before yesterday’s small nonfarm data was favorable. The nonfarm number today, at current elevated prices, isn’t very suitable for getting positioned in advance. But both the trend and the technical picture are still leaning bullish. Going long on dips is definitely the right approach. If the nonfarm data is weak and rate-hike expectations drop further, 82K might even break through in one push.

If the nonfarm data turns out strong, the market may consolidate at high levels under pressure below 82K, then wait until the September 17th meeting when the policy is maintained unchanged. It would still move upward.

In summary, the main theme right now is still macro tailwinds. The safer way to handle risk assets is to go long—go long. For short-term trading, you can be flexible in your response.

Join the community and pin the Binance Square post. Starting from July, the full set of views has been shared, bringing group members plenty of returns and improving win rates. Up to now, for every cycle of highs and lows, the correct reminders have been given. Join the high-quality free community.
$BTC $XAU

Reviewing:
After last week’s rally peaked at 81,500 and was swept clean, Waller delivered a slightly hawkish update right after. Over these past two days, the market has pulled back due to rising expectations for a September rate hike. However, BTC has been resilient, and gold’s adjustment has been decisive and smooth—and it has also reached the pullback target I expected.
Main takeaways:
1. A pullback driven by rate-hike bearishness is a good thing. As long as the statement/decision remains unchanged, it’s a positive (I don’t think Waller will hike).
2. BTC’s correction hasn’t ended yet. It is currently in a range-bound adjustment. After the pullback ends, I’ll look for another wave of upside.
3. The first phase of gold’s pullback has ended. I took profit on all short positions above 4,600. Next, I’ll look for a rebound.

There are many pieces of data directly relevant this month, so it’s recommended to anticipate them and be ready to respond at any time.
[Only my personal trading views, not investment advice]
$XAU $BTC

Gold 4480 arrives as scheduled
Trading view from 4650 onward

The big target 77400–76800 is also in place
But it initially spikes up to 81500 and then pulls back—here we first look for a rebound

A break of the channel doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a real break!
$BTC
$XAU

Today is the last day of July—marking the closing of the monthly chart.
I want to write something, but it feels like there’s not much worth writing.
So I’ll simply summarize each thing I want to say:
1、July ends successfully; I’m fairly satisfied. From the 1st to every fundamental-driven move from last night, I managed to catch each wave in advance. The regret is that I didn’t perfectly capture the full move. The follower test account also achieved 200%+ returns, with drawdown controlled within 12%.
2、August is tough, but once we get through August and transition into September, Q4’s market should be much better;
3、Fundamentals remain the main line; technical analysis is there to assist. In July, I spent a lot of effort understanding deeper macro information—and I also reaped the returns from that effort.
4、I’m bullish on gold and BTC. The main approach going forward is to buy on dips and go long. In August, I’ll consider using more dip-buying tools.
5、The waters in the US stock market run too deep. It’s not an area I’m familiar with, so I’ll look for speculative opportunities at the extreme high and low points.

Each of the points above will be discussed in more depth from time to time during livestreams on the Square and in the Star Sphere!
$BTC $CL $XAU