灯塔说

Friends trading in the square join our community
We’re about to get through the harsh winter
(Group entry threshold 1.99U filters out ad dogs)

Important Announcement:
The market analysis and investment recommendations provided in this plaza are based solely on publicly available information and professional judgment, and do not constitute any guarantee of returns or assurance of principal safety.
Investing involves risk; decisions should be made carefully. Please assess your own risk tolerance and financial situation prudently, and assume responsibility for any related investment risks.
Note: All content on this plaza is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.
——Lighthouse Says. For business cooperation (copy-trading), please DM.

The Federal Reserve’s July meeting will keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%—3.75%, but three committee members called for a 25BP rate hike; the official statement still emphasizes that inflation remains above target.

As of August 3, the expectation for a rate hike on September 17 is 73.6%

Looking at today’s latest expectation, it is 64.7%

This indicates that the market’s expectation for a rate hike in September is getting higher (with such elevated expectations, it’s difficult for the near-term market to be bullish).

The data for August is crucial: for the August 7 jobs report (nonfarm payrolls), the forecast is over 80,000, and the unemployment rate is 4.3%

The actual released data is critical.

The pressure is on Worsh! If all the data strongly points toward a rate hike, can Worsh hold up under the pressure and keep rates unchanged?
$XAU $CL

I don’t mean anything targeted at anyone here.
I just want to use this kind of venting to warn you in advance:
This kind of trading can’t make money.
Only “the thrill of the experience.”
That sense of experience will consume your costs,
wear down your principal.

This short-term fast thrill is the best combo product for “teachers” who just entered the market and brand-new “rookies.”

Do you like this approach?

Don’t drag it out.
Stop just skimming the surface.
Hurry up—the waterfall.
I have a whole pile of empty orders (BTC and gold).
Besides $SPCX

Trillion-dollar dead money, a brand-new key—can Babylon TBV really work?

I think what BTCFi should truly solve has never been:

How to create yet another BTC.

Instead, it should be how to make the native BTC in users’ wallets truly become an asset that can do work.

That’s also why I’ve been paying attention to Babylon Trustless Bitcoin Vaults (TBV) recently.

In the past, if you wanted to use BTC as collateral on Aave to borrow USDC, you usually had to take an extra step:

BTC → WBTC / cbBTC → deposit as collateral → borrow

It looks like you’re pledging BTC, but in reality there’s an additional layer of wrapping, custody, or cross-chain risk.

TBV aims to remove that layer.

Its approach is very straightforward:

BTC stays on the Bitcoin mainnet, locked up in its native form, while the collateral capacity of this portion of BTC is connected to Aave.

If the integration between Aave V4 and TBV is fully realized, a very interesting path could emerge in the future:

Native BTC → TBV → Aave → borrow USDC / GHO

No need to sell BTC.

No need to convert it to WBTC first.

And you don’t have to hand your native BTC over to a centralized custodian.

This is actually extremely meaningful for long-term BTC holders.

For example, if I have 10 BTC, I’m bullish long term and don’t want to sell, but I need some dollar liquidity now.

In the past, I had to choose between “selling BTC” and “tokenizing BTC as an asset.”

Later, there may be another option:

BTC stays put, but you use the credit of BTC to raise financing.

Of course, borrowing always involves LTV, interest, and liquidation risk—and this TBV architecture still needs time to prove itself.

But what I care about more is the direction behind @BabylonLabs_io :

In the past, everyone studied how to move BTC into DeFi.

Now, some people are starting to research—

Can DeFi, in turn, serve native BTC?

If this path ultimately works, what would be truly valuable in the next phase of BTCFi might not be more Wrapped BTC.

Instead, it could be native BTC itself becoming the foundational collateral asset for the on-chain financial world.

That’s what makes TBV the most worth paying attention to.

#baby $BABY
#baby $BABY @BabylonLabs_io

Tomorrow there is a SpaceX Q2 earnings report.
It will also be the company’s first earnings report since its IPO.

Because the current price is far from the issue price of 135,
I’m more hopeful that the earnings report will meet expectations.

Whether or not you want to believe in another round of Elon Musk...

I still placed a long order at 109.8.
$SPCX

At this stage, the only ones who can survive are old “suckers”

I don’t understand why they still like listening to those who peddle big dreams to make a few hundred points—when ETH earns just 10–20 points and they get excited and shout “I made it big!”

Aren’t they completely stupid?
If you can actually make money, that would be strange.

Crude oil has reached the specified target near 79
Another precise guidance

Remember the last time it was guided from 77–79 to 85–87?
It hit every single band!

But to be honest, I only captured part of the profit.
$CL
Now we’re waiting for further progress in the negotiations. If it breaks below the 78 area, the next step will be around 69.

During the talks, it’s enough to go short on the rebounds.

Iran cares too much about appearances
Trump is much better in this regard
Completely clueless about what “face” even means

Although they’re all stubbornly tough, everyone wants to end the fight as quickly as possible!$CL

Tonight live stream together to watch PCE and GDP data
Let’s make July end perfectly
$XAU $BTC

How to look at the 20:30 Beijing time release of US GDP and PCE data?
First, look at the relationship of the results:
If PCE cools and GDP is weak: US Treasury yields fall, which is favorable for gold and tends to push BTC/ETH higher via a short squeeze.
If PCE runs hot and GDP is resilient: rate-hike expectations and yields rise, which makes it easier to break through the lower end of the range.
If GDP is weak but PCE is hot: a stagflation-type setup, which is least friendly for risk assets.

Tonight (Thursday 8:30) is an extremely rare “data on the same screen” event—Q2 GDP advance and June core PCE landing in the same window, and right after yesterday’s Fed decision to keep rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%.

The key tug-of-war in this set of data is “confirmation of a stagflation snapshot.” The biggest expectation gap in the market is on the economic growth pace: the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model has slashed the forecast since May’s 4.3% all the way down to about 1.5% now, far below the 2.3% consensus on Wall Street. Meanwhile, core PCE after setting a three-year high of 3.4% in May—tonight’s market expectation is only a slight dip to around 3.3%.

If tonight prints a combination like “low GDP (e.g., below 2%) + sticky PCE (flat or above 3.3%)”, that would put the Fed in a policy deadlock—Powell can’t keep hiking in the face of an economic cliff, but it also can’t create room for rate cuts ahead of core inflation at 3.3%.

What this means for trading tonight:

Gold:
A stagflation setup is an absolute bullish catalyst for gold. As long as GDP visibly sputters, the market will conclude that the Fed ultimately has to compromise with the economy. Weak economic activity suppresses nominal yields, while inflation remains elevated—real yields then drift lower passively, which provides very strong upside momentum for gold.

Crypto assets:
For liquidity-sensitive assets, this is a lose-lose scenario. Weak GDP makes the market price in more easing in the forward curve, but a hot PCE immediately clamps down on near-term risk appetite. Tonight’s bigger likelihood is that price first moves lower, triggering a pin-like cleanup of long liquidity. If BTC is currently ranging around 64,000, and unless PCE is extremely below expectations (for example, dropping directly toward 3.1% to fully open the space for rate cuts), it will be hard to form a one-way upside trend. It most likely turns into a wide-range “monkey market.”

Core:
Tonight, absolutely do not look at any single data point in isolation—you must look at the combination spread between the two. If, at the moment of release, you find that GDP is below expectations but PCE is above expectations, going long gold is the most straightforward trade based on logic;
$XAU

The value of this content is still going up.
In the US stock market in July,
whenever people asked me what to buy,
I only recommended Microsoft. $MSFT