灯塔说

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We’re about to get through the harsh winter
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——Lighthouse Says. For business cooperation (copy-trading), please DM.

That was a show of authority by the new official just taking office, but the Iranian people had to survive.

Iran cares too much about appearances
Trump is much better in this regard
Completely clueless about what “face” even means

Although they’re all stubbornly tough, everyone wants to end the fight as quickly as possible!$CL

Tonight live stream together to watch PCE and GDP data
Let’s make July end perfectly
$XAU $BTC

How to look at the 20:30 Beijing time release of US GDP and PCE data?
First, look at the relationship of the results:
If PCE cools and GDP is weak: US Treasury yields fall, which is favorable for gold and tends to push BTC/ETH higher via a short squeeze.
If PCE runs hot and GDP is resilient: rate-hike expectations and yields rise, which makes it easier to break through the lower end of the range.
If GDP is weak but PCE is hot: a stagflation-type setup, which is least friendly for risk assets.

Tonight (Thursday 8:30) is an extremely rare “data on the same screen” event—Q2 GDP advance and June core PCE landing in the same window, and right after yesterday’s Fed decision to keep rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%.

The key tug-of-war in this set of data is “confirmation of a stagflation snapshot.” The biggest expectation gap in the market is on the economic growth pace: the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model has slashed the forecast since May’s 4.3% all the way down to about 1.5% now, far below the 2.3% consensus on Wall Street. Meanwhile, core PCE after setting a three-year high of 3.4% in May—tonight’s market expectation is only a slight dip to around 3.3%.

If tonight prints a combination like “low GDP (e.g., below 2%) + sticky PCE (flat or above 3.3%)”, that would put the Fed in a policy deadlock—Powell can’t keep hiking in the face of an economic cliff, but it also can’t create room for rate cuts ahead of core inflation at 3.3%.

What this means for trading tonight:

Gold:
A stagflation setup is an absolute bullish catalyst for gold. As long as GDP visibly sputters, the market will conclude that the Fed ultimately has to compromise with the economy. Weak economic activity suppresses nominal yields, while inflation remains elevated—real yields then drift lower passively, which provides very strong upside momentum for gold.

Crypto assets:
For liquidity-sensitive assets, this is a lose-lose scenario. Weak GDP makes the market price in more easing in the forward curve, but a hot PCE immediately clamps down on near-term risk appetite. Tonight’s bigger likelihood is that price first moves lower, triggering a pin-like cleanup of long liquidity. If BTC is currently ranging around 64,000, and unless PCE is extremely below expectations (for example, dropping directly toward 3.1% to fully open the space for rate cuts), it will be hard to form a one-way upside trend. It most likely turns into a wide-range “monkey market.”

Core:
Tonight, absolutely do not look at any single data point in isolation—you must look at the combination spread between the two. If, at the moment of release, you find that GDP is below expectations but PCE is above expectations, going long gold is the most straightforward trade based on logic;
$XAU

The value of this content is still going up.
In the US stock market in July,
whenever people asked me what to buy,
I only recommended Microsoft. $MSFT

Is there a US stock that’s set to rebound first?
After reviewing the chart, I saw that in the US stock marked $SPCX , it broke below yesterday after the open, then reversed and turned back upward. Today in the pre-market it’s not following through on the decline either—giving the feel that it’s showing strength and may be the first to rebound.
SPCX has pulled back 53% from its all-time high since its IPO. Last night’s sell-off bottoming rebound suggests that near-term selling pressure may have run out. It’s possible some capital is starting to position early with a left-side bet on upcoming key events.
Next month, SPCX has two major first-time events:
1. SPCX will deliver its first earnings report since its IPO (Q2 earnings on August 4). Right now, there’s disagreement in the market about SPCX’s real profitability in AI and space hardware (xAI, Starlink, and launch business). If the earnings report proves its top-tier profits and revenue, it would be a major positive catalyst—and could trigger a strong, early rebound.
2. But there’s also bad news: on August 6 (the third day after the earnings release), the IPO shares unlock. This is the first unlock after the IPO, and early investors will be allowed to sell that day. That’s a signal of increased sell pressure.
The key is still the earnings report. If earnings are good, the selling pressure will be lighter; if earnings are bad, the massive unlocked shares could also lead to a chain-reaction sell-off and stampede.
In addition, the 13th Starship launch window is also approaching—any success by Starship that exceeds expectations will be reflected directly in the price action.

From a technical perspective, the bottoming reversal is a signal. During the day, you can initiate with a leading position. If in the evening the fundamental factors don’t break down below the new low, and it finds support and bottoms near 110, then that would be the best opportunity to set up larger exposure.

No more talk—I’ve held back from trying to bottom-fish US stocks for a long time. I don’t dare touch storage, so I’ll go for SPCX first.
$SPCX

I did something big
Told the bottom-fishers with action

It’s fine—just don’t bottom-fish
Otherwise, the whole household is gone

Once the bottom is successfully built,
just hop on with the momentum.
$SNDK

This drop
If you don’t know, you’d think the Fed raised rates by 50 basis points
。。。。

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to release its interest rate decision at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday. Fed Chair Powell will, as usual, hold a press conference at 2:30 a.m.

Facing what industry insiders consider the Fed’s most difficult-to-predict decision, JPMorgan’s U.S. Markets Information and Trading Desk, in its latest report, expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged. It also anticipates at least two dissenting “hawkish” votes—according to the report, including objections from Hammack and Logan.

Lighthouse lays out five scenario forecasts for the Fed’s decision and the potential path for the S&P 500 (ranked by probability from high to low):

① The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged while maintaining a hawkish stance (probability: 50%)—the S&P 500’s trading range today is expected to move up 0.25% to down 0.5%. This is the current baseline forecast. The Fed would keep rates unchanged due to a strong labor market and economic growth, but remain on alert for inflation. Recent trends in energy prices suggest another wave of inflation may be approaching.

② The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged while taking a dovish stance (probability: 28%)—the S&P 500 is expected to rise 0.5%-1%. This would be the most favorable outcome for equities.

③ The Federal Reserve hikes rates by 25 basis points (probability: 20%)—the S&P 500 is expected to fall 1.5%-2%, and the Nasdaq 100’s decline could be doubled. Driven by the market’s shift away from growth/“momentum” stocks and AI-related themes, the Russell 2000 Index may hold up relatively better in this downtrend.

④ The Federal Reserve hikes rates by 50 basis points (probability: 1%)—the S&P 500 is expected to fall 2%-4%. If the Fed also releases information indicating that this hike is only a temporary measure to address traditional inflation indicators—and should not be interpreted as the beginning of a series of hikes—the decline could be limited.

⑤ The Federal Reserve cuts rates (probability: 1%)—the S&P 500’s trading range is expected to swing up 1% to down 1.5%. The reason stocks could see negative outcomes is: if the market views this as a sign that the Fed has lost its independence, it could lead to higher yields, a higher break-even inflation rate, higher volatility, and weaker equities.
#美联储利率决议即将公布

Is Bitcoin about to drop again?
Yesterday, Bitcoin failed to break above 65,500, and continued falling to break below 64K; the bears have once again regained control.
With crude oil falling and with a rate-setting meeting coming up, why did Bitcoin drop first?
My view remains unchanged—this is just the surface situation. It’s a short-term reduction in risk exposure, essentially liquidating the prior long positions.
Given the recent data showing negative signals, continue to look for low entries to buy the rebound.

Today the price is around the 63K area—this is the key support zone that I was waiting for a 4-hour level adjustment. It’s here now.
Keep a close eye on whether this holds and stops the decline. I will continue to look for low entries to buy the rebound here.
This is the final key support zone. Once it breaks the 4-hour level starting point at 62.5K, it would destroy the uptrend that can be sustained, and the market would then look toward 60K.

The hourly chart is still bearish. In the short term, there’s no fundamental catalyst, so price action is likely to continue with weak, range-bound fluctuations at the hourly-chart level.
For the short term, you may consider selling short around the 64.5–64.7K resistance.
【Bitcoin section—only personal trading views shared, not investment advice】
$BTC

Broad market sell-off—what signal is this?
When we wake up in the morning, the U.S. stock market, crypto, gold, and crude oil are all falling. The usual inverse correlation response of oil to other assets has also disappeared.
The key point is that this time crude oil is dropping viciously, yet there hasn’t been much news about friendly negotiations between the two sides.
Yesterday, Trump said that negotiations with Iran would bring good news—then around the corner, Iran called it out and denied there were talks.

This round of decline is not only driven by the tacit ceasefire between the two sides (leading to the drop), but also by a stampede-like sell-off once it started.

Crude oil is like this— it trades on macro risk-asset headlines.
As mentioned earlier, as long as both Iran and Trump are reigniting the war under pressure rather than choosing it freely, a full-scale war won’t break out.
So once there’s news of a pause, oil prices will quickly cool down.
Based on current signs, that seems to be true.

But we haven’t yet entered a phase of certain, negotiated ceasefire.
Instead, it’s an unscripted, tacit ceasefire between both sides. This kind of pause may be tactical.
Once fighting resumes, oil prices will rebound again.

Technically, we’re also approaching a key support zone around 79–77. You can watch for signs of the sell-off easing here. If there’s another flare-up in the Middle East and it’s paired with Thursday’s interest rate decision or a “waiver/no-show” from Waller, the rebound will come.
【Crude Oil】
$CL

#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议

Some say that the interest rate decision in July is the hardest to predict so far
because market expectations split evenly between no change in rates and a rate hike.
The reason is also the recent surge in crude oil prices last week.

First, in my view, interest rates will basically be kept unchanged.
And for the coming period, expectations of rate hikes will only remain talk and won’t really materialize.

The Fed will neither cut rates nor raise rates right now. It won’t cut because inflation hasn’t been completely eradicated. If it even loosens slightly, prices could rebound violently at any time, and all the efforts from previous rate hikes would be for nothing—Powell would absolutely not take that risk.
It also won’t raise rates because current interest rates are already high. With inflation having declined somewhat, there’s no need for further hikes; otherwise, it would affect the U.S. economy, and the White House wouldn’t allow that.

At present, as long as the market doesn’t face extreme circumstances, it generally won’t easily raise or cut rates.
In this long winter of high interest rates, the market won’t see a broad-based surge—only differentiation. The investment money will become increasingly picky, funneling entirely into those tightly grouped “bonded” assets with a lot of cash on hand and that are genuinely making money month after month—hardcore assets (for example, the key beneficiaries of the AI capital expenditure cycle).

So, the bull market still needs time and we must be patient and wait!
$CL
$XAU