Criptoniano

The next major resistance for $BTC is clearly 120k.

The order book shows this, in addition to the psychological price it represents.

If it remains strong above 116k, it could happen sooner rather than later. If not, we will have to wait.

$AIXBT looks good here

I still see people excited about Altseason and, although I remain bullish (that hasn't changed), it cannot be denied that in this cycle:

- There are hardly any diamond hands or holders who buy into the projects' narratives. Most investors have evolved and are now short-term investors/traders with a plan. This makes everything move much faster and pumps do not sustain like before. Basically, people know that most alts are smoke and act accordingly.

- Insiders, devs, CEX, and market makers are much more hostile; they no longer reinvest as much in the tokens and are more predatory than in 2021, taking a large part of the industry's capital into their pockets.

- Memes have caused more damage even than the huge dilutions of 2021-2022, leading to a brutal capital extraction.

- There are thousands of obsolete and abandoned projects like shipwrecks, which have lost their community and all the interest they once had.

- This cycle is the institutional cycle, and institutions are much smarter, more selective, and more conservative in their investments.

- The dilution of coins detracts attention, exclusivity, and value, making it harder than ever to attract capital. And if they do manage to do so, it's to a much lesser extent than before.

And I'm sure I have left many more reasons why I think that the Altseason as we knew it will not exist.

What I do believe in is a selective Altseason, where some assets and ecosystems that truly provide solutions manage to capture attention and generate generational profits, as we have already seen.

Oh, and everything going up is not an Altseason. Altseason for me is seeing average returns of several multipliers in everything that is not Bitcoin.

First was Bitcoin.

Now it will be all the infrastructure and DeFi projects related to stablecoins (the other institutional wave).

Where I also see a lot of future is in tokenized stocks and assets. Soon we will trade these assets on web3.

80% of retail waiting for the top to enter with the savings of their entire life and lose them again.

Stocks and crypto can continue to have brutal increases.

Why?

Because the FED will have to lower rates one way or another… and possibly launch a new QE.

Trump has tried everything and has not been able to stop the rise of bonds.

Let us remember that the level of debt in the U.S. is unsustainable, and this year they have a huge amount of maturities (if interest rates keep rising, the system won't hold).

Sooner or later, the FED will be forced to intervene: lower rates and activate bond buybacks (QE) to stop it.

Bitcoin has rebounded more than 27% but Google searches remain at a minimum.

This indicates that it is institutional investors who are buying and that retail will re-enter at the peak or close to it.

We have a radical narrative shift:

-Bitcoin has broken bearish structure.
-Trump backs down with China.
-Trump says he will not fire Powell.
-End of the war in Ukraine seems to be near.

We may see some interesting months ahead. Although with Trump, anything is possible.

I don't usually share personal things, but today I went to get the car and found that someone had scratched the hood with a stone.

The damage is minimal, but I'm still surprised by the level of frustration and misery that some people live with. What a pity.

Now that the position of Pope has become vacant, Trump has the perfect profile:

He won't perform miracles, but the circus is guaranteed.

Trump has made the first move in the domino effect with his tariffs.

It is already estimated that 90% of global economies will cut rates in 2025.

Your portfolio does not rise because it is worth more.

It rises because the dollar (its counterpart) is worth less.

We have reached levels from 3 years ago👇

$OM has been one of the most manipulated assets I remember in months.

If you entered in November (or earlier), you had plenty of room to exit with profits.

If you bought during the artificial rises generated by the Market Maker, you simply did what they were looking for.

I'm not saying this to kick a man when he's down, but so you can learn the lesson if you lost money.

I also don't intend to justify the brutal dump, but this asset had been behaving irrationally for a while.

Personally, I would never have bought above 5. It was just a time to sell.

Amazed by BTC and ETH.

Traditional market collapsing and crypto remaining unfazed.

How to interpret it?

Total capitulation will only come when people stop believing that everything will bounce back in 3 months.

It will happen when they sell convinced that a recession is coming.

And it will probably be then when we mark the definitive bottom.

The meme

Crypto apps are collapsing in the App Store ranking.

Retail is out.

What will happen with $BTC?

As the most likely scenario in the short term, I would see a rapid drop towards the 78k area, where we have more liquidity.

There we should see a strong reaction and respect the previous low to look for the liquidity above, which is around 88.5k.

If we lose the previous low, things could get complicated and this analysis would be invalidated.

This has marked the market ceilings for us.

Since December, when the map is tinged with yellow indicating a high number of open contracts, the market has shown areas of overheating where it has corrected.

Currently, we are still far from that level, suggesting that the market could continue to rise until yellow predominates.

Global liquidity (M2) has grown moderately since 2022, despite the FED's QT.

Bitcoin has already benefited, but the room for expansion remains huge compared to other cycles.

I do not expect a 2021, but even a scenario like 2014 would imply a strong injection of capital into the markets.