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The chance of the Fed raising interest rates in September surges again

Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole caused market expectations for the Fed’s September decision to change sharply. The probability of rates being held fell from 71% to 50%, while the probability of a 25 bps hike rose from 30% to 49%. The probability of a cut is only about 1%.

For crypto traders, this matters because higher rate expectations typically make risk assets more sensitive to strengthening yields and the dollar. However, the hike is not certain. The next focus is on U.S. inflation and labor data, which could shift market pricing again.

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#Bitcoin #TheFed #CryptoNews #Macro #menjaditrader $BTC

Bitcoin fails to hold at $80K—healthy correction or new pressure?

BTC fell about 1.36% in 24 hours to $78,717 after briefly touching $81,478. Current selling pressure is more reasonably read as a combination of profit-taking in the $80K–$81.5K area and volatility ahead of options expiry—not because of any clearly negative fundamental catalyst.

On the other hand, US spot Bitcoin ETF flows on August 27 were still positive at around $242 million. Traders now need to watch $80K as the reclaim area and $78,423 as the key low if selling pressure continues.

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#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoNews #TradingCrypto #menjaditrader

Bitcoin capital starts to turn profitable again, are bullish signals beginning to form?

CryptoQuant on-chain data shows that the amount of investor Bitcoin capital currently in unrealized profit has started to increase again, while some capital is still in a loss position. A similar pattern appeared during the early phase of the bullish trend in the previous cycle, but it has not yet become a full confirmation.

The next focus is on the potential crossover between capital in profit and capital in loss. If the capital in profit truly takes over, bullish momentum could look stronger. For traders, this indicator is better suited as a trend confirmation, not as a single standalone reason to enter.

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#Bitcoin #BTC $BTC

Trump changes place names again, this time Ontario Lake

Donald Trump signed an executive order to rename Lake Ontario to Lake America amid worsening relations between the United States and Canada. Previously, his administration also changed the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America and restored the name Mount McKinley.

Not all name changes went smoothly. Efforts related to the Kennedy Center reportedly faced rejection and legal issues.

For crypto traders, the direct impact is still limited. What’s more important to watch is whether the US-Canada tension evolves into trade policy, or further pressures global risk sentiment.

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#menjaditrader #crypto #Bitcoin #marketupdate #geopolitik $BTC

Market crypto ready to face two major triggers from the US today

Friday, 28 August 2026, traders’ attention will be focused on two important agenda items from the United States.

🇺🇸 21:00 WIB, Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks
The market will look for clues about the direction of The Fed’s interest rates. If his remarks lean hawkish, the USD and Treasury yields could strengthen. This may put pressure on BTC and other risk assets.

📊 Preliminary Benchmark Payrolls Revision
This data is important because it can shift market perceptions of the state of the US labor market. If the revision suggests the economy is weaker than expected, expectations for policy easing could increase.

For BTC traders, don’t just look at the candles. USD and yields could be the main drivers of today’s volatility.

The scenarios are fairly clear. A hawkish stance could weigh on risk assets, while a dovish tilt could open room for BTC and crypto to strengthen.

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#Bitcoin $BTC

Profit can come by chance. Consistent profit? That’s a different story.

Behind the trader who looks “effortlessly profitable,” there’s a process that’s rarely seen.

Hours of backtesting.
Review the trading journal.
Evaluate the strategy.
Learn how to read the market.
And hardest of all, practicing controlling your emotions when the position starts moving against you.

People usually only see the final result: how much profit.

But that result is only the smallest part of the process.

That’s why in MT Journal, trading isn’t just about finding entry signals—it’s about building a more structured trading process.

Starting from reading the setup, recording transactions, to evaluating trading performance.

Because a consistent trader isn’t the one who’s always right.

It’s the one who has a system, discipline, and is willing to keep evaluating themselves.

$BTC

Money isn’t just about how much you have.

The way you think about money, use it, and treat it also determines your future.

Read these 10 lessons. Which one resonates with you the most? 👀

$BTC

Afternoon, guys.

Hopefully today the market will be more friendly, positions won’t make your heart work overtime, and trading will go according to plan.

Smooth trading, a calm mind, and steady blessings. 🤲

💰 Where should I store money so it’s safe?

On a bank, it can get frozen.
On a hard wallet, data can get breached.
On a wallet, it can get drained.
On a CEX, it might shut down.

So where should you store money then? 🤔

The best way is to store money in your mind.
Alias... the money doesn’t exist. 😭

If you don’t have any money, then nobody can hack it, drain it, freeze it, or liquidate it. Wkwk.

But seriously, there’s no storage method that’s 100% risk-free. What matters is understanding the risks and splitting your assets based on your needs.

If you were you, where would you feel most comfortable storing your assets? 👇

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#Bitcoin #Crypto #CryptoIndonesia #BitcoinIndonesia #TradingCrypto #CryptoEducation #Blockchain #Web3 #TraderCrypto $BTC

A bear market doesn’t mean prices can only fall.

2018, 2022, and 2026 show a similar pattern: amid a bearish trend, Bitcoin can still create a pretty brutal counter-trend rally.

📊 2018: +16%, +44%, +41%, +36%
📊 2022: +8%, +16%, +25%, +28%
📊 2026: +8%, +11%, +22%, +23%

The problem is that counter rallies often make traders think, “Wow, the bull market is back!”

But it could simply be a bear market rally. The market really loves to give hope before it slaps you again.

So price increases don’t automatically mean the bearish trend is over. Watch the market structure, volume, liquidity, and trend confirmation before you jump in FOMO-style.

Is the 2026 rally just a counter-trend rally, or the start of a bigger reversal?

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#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #CryptoTrading #TradingCrypto $BTC

Emerging Market Currency Index Hits Record, Risk-On Signal Growing Stronger

The MSCI Emerging Market Currency Index has once again printed a record high. The latest data shows the index even briefly touched the 1,922 area, underscoring the strength of emerging market currencies.

At the same time, the US dollar is still below the 100 level. The dollar’s weakness and rising market expectations regarding the Fed’s policy direction are making emerging market assets look increasingly attractive.

Capital also begins to flow more aggressively into high-yield assets. This condition is one of the indications that investor appetite for risk assets is increasing.

So what does this mean for crypto?

Historically, a weakening dollar and rising risk appetite can create a fairly positive environment for Bitcoin and crypto assets. If global liquidity conditions continue to support, crypto could also benefit from incoming capital flows.

However, traders still need to stay alert. Momentum like this has failed to hold up before. If the Fed turns hawkish again, the dollar strengthens, or a new geopolitical shock emerges, risk appetite can shift quickly.

So for Bitcoin, this is an interesting tailwind to monitor—not a signal to immediately FOMO.

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#Bitcoin #Crypto #RiskOn #Trading #menjaditrader

Bitcoin Starts Receiving a Boost From US Spot Demand; Here’s an Important Signal for the Market

The Coinbase Premium Index for Bitcoin is back in positive territory.

This indicator measures the difference between the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase versus other major exchanges. Because Coinbase is widely used by investors and institutions in the United States, an increase in premium is often one of the signs that demand from the US market is starting to strengthen.

What’s interesting is that this Bitcoin move isn’t only visible from the price side. The Coinbase Premium returning to positive suggests support from spot demand.

As long as the premium can hold in the positive area, the bullish momentum of Bitcoin still has fuel to continue. Conversely, if it slips back into negative territory, traders need to be cautious because it could be a sign that US demand is weakening.

So for now, besides looking at the price chart, the Coinbase Premium Index is one of the indicators worth monitoring to gauge whether Bitcoin’s rise is still supported by real buying or not.

Source: CryptoQuant

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#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Trading #menjaditrader

Bitcoin weekly update

Bitcoin is showing positive momentum on the weekly chart, marked by an increase in volume as well as stochastic beginning to form a cross.

However, there is one important area to watch: $80K–$82K.

This area is a potential weekly resistance that could determine Bitcoin’s next move. If BTC successfully breaks out and holds above that zone, bullish momentum could continue.

On the other hand, if there is rejection, don’t panic right away. Adjustments or a pullback could actually reopen the opportunity to buy the dip.

As discussed for several months now, the $60K range is one of the interesting areas for DCA.

So don’t FOMO just because Bitcoin suddenly moves fast.

Resistance: $80K–$82K
Key accumulation range: ~$60K

The important thing isn’t chasing candles, but having a strategy before the market moves.

Not financial advice.

#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #BitcoinUpdate #CryptoTrading #BitcoinAnalysis #TradingCrypto #CryptoIndonesia #BitcoinIndonesia #DCA $BTC

Gold Breaks Record Again at $4,650, Capital Starts Moving Toward Safe-Haven Assets

Gold is back to setting a new record above $4,650, indicating that capital flows into safe-haven assets remain strong.

This increase is notable because it happens amid global market uncertainty. Investors appear to be getting more defensive and are prioritizing assets perceived as safer as market risk rises.

For crypto traders, this is something to watch. If capital keeps flowing into gold while stocks and other risk assets start losing momentum, BTC and altcoins could also face downward pressure.

However, it doesn’t mean BTC is automatically bearish. What needs to be monitored is whether the gold rally is accompanied by weakening stocks, rising VIX, and liquidity moving out of risk assets. If all three occur together, the pressure on crypto could become even stronger.

The market is signaling that risk appetite is not fully safe yet. Don’t just look at the BTC chart—macroeconomic conditions also help determine the next direction.

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#Bitcoin #Crypto #Gold #MarketUpdate #menjaditrader $BTC

BTC Holds at $77.6K, But Whales Start Sending BTC to Exchanges

Bitcoin remains stable around $77.6K, supported by ETF inflows exceeding $1.4 billion over 3 days and short-position liquidations that strengthen the rally.

However, there are signals that need attention:

• Whales deposited 3,800+ BTC to exchanges, potentially adding sell pressure
• Expectations of a rise in Japan’s interest rates could strengthen the Yen and weigh on risk assets
• Liquidity from the US Treasury buyback could become a positive catalyst

Conclusion:
BTC is still bullish as long as ETF demand remains strong, but the $77K-$80K area is starting to become a battleground. If whales truly begin distributing, a correction after a vertical rally is not unusual.

Don’t chase. Even whales are starting to send BTC to exchanges—why should we do the opposite and spend our savings buying at the top?

BTC Breaks Through $78K, But $80K Becomes the Next Test

Bitcoin surged more than 20% in a week, reaching $78K, driven by ETF inflows of $1.4 billion in 3 days, corporate accumulation, and macro liquidity starting to flow into risk assets.

However, there are risks to consider.

• Whales have offloaded more than 7,700 BTC
• A large supply wall is waiting in the $80K area
• The RSI is starting to cool, signaling momentum is weakening
• Regulatory uncertainty still looms

Conclusion:
BTC remains bullish, but $80K is a crucial resistance. A breakout with strong volume could pave the way to higher levels. If it fails, a pullback after a 20% rally is not surprising.

Don’t FOMO just because you see a green candle. The market has no obligation to make your entry comfortable.

New Trump Family Rumor Token on the Robinhood Chain Starts Making the Market Heat Up

Rumors about the Trump family said to be launching a new token on the Robinhood Chain this weekend have started to trend on X.

There has been no official confirmation regarding the token, ticker, or launch schedule. So for now, its status is still a rumor—not an official announcement.

Interestingly, this rumor has been enough to trigger big movements in the market. The $TRUMP token briefly surged from around $1.8 to $3.6 before correcting again. That means traders have started positioning based purely on expectations.

From a market perspective, here’s what you need to watch. If a new token launch on the Robinhood Chain is real, attention and liquidity could flow heavily into that ecosystem. But if the rumor turns out to be false, traders who enter too early could end up as exit liquidity.

Robinhood Chain itself is indeed growing. Its reported TVL has already broken past $540 million and increased by more than 45% throughout August, while stablecoins on that network reach around $640 million.

So don’t just chase the green candles. Monitor official confirmation, volume, liquidity, and the reaction of $TRUMP first. The market often rewards patient traders, then punishes those who FOMO. Fair? No. But that’s how the market works.

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#menjaditrader #crypto #bitcoin #altcoin #Trading

Bonds Get Hit, Can Bitcoin Get a Breath of Fresh Air?

The yield on 30-year US bonds fell sharply after briefly reaching the highest level in 19 years.

From a market perspective, this is interesting. When Treasury yields fall, pressure from rising interest rates on risk assets may start to ease. Conditions like this are usually a fairly positive catalyst for growth stocks, crypto, and Bitcoin.

If this decline in yields continues, risk assets have room to strengthen again. Bitcoin could also become one of the most responsive assets to changes in liquidity and expectations for interest rates.

But traders still need to be cautious. A drop in yields doesn’t automatically mean the market is immediately bullish. The next things to watch are whether yields keep falling, the dollar weakens, and whether Bitcoin can hold the breakout.

If all three start to move in the same direction, the potential for risk-on could grow stronger.

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#becomingatrader #Bitcoin #Crypto #RiskAssets #MarketUpdate

BTC Insight - 20 August 2026

Bitcoin has once again shown strong momentum with a 7.5% surge within 24 hours, reaching the $69.3K area.

This time, it’s not just about technicals. There’s a combination of political catalysts, institutional inflows, and short liquidations that accelerate the rally.

What’s driving BTC up?

• US political support lifts market sentiment
US President Donald Trump has again backed Bitcoin as a strategic asset and pushed for discussion of the CLARITY Act. Expectations of clearer regulation have boosted investor optimism.

• Institutions are back in aggressively
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows of more than $650 million over the last 3 days. In addition, whales have also accumulated around 43,000 BTC, strengthening buy pressure.

• Short squeeze accelerates the rally
BTC broke out from the $64.4K area to $69.7K on heavy volume. Many short positions were liquidated, making the increase even faster.

However, it doesn’t mean the path upward is smooth.

Risks to watch:

• Macro factors still loom
FOMC minutes show the Fed is still ready to maintain tight policy if inflation rises again. On top of that, diesel price increases due to geopolitics could add further pressure.

• BTC begins to enter the overbought zone
RSI briefly touched an extreme level of 98 during the breakout, and it’s now still around 78. This condition is often a sign that the market needs a correction or consolidation.

• Risk from political sentiment
Some of the upward momentum comes from political narratives. If there’s a policy change or conflicting statements, volatility could increase.

Conclusion:

BTC has managed to move back toward the psychological $70K area, supported strongly by ETFs, whales, and regulatory sentiment.

But after a vertical rise like this, don’t be surprised if the market takes a breather first. Big green candles are easy to enjoy, but they often make traders forget that price also has a habit of dipping to test whether buyers are truly serious.

By the way, toward $1? Hype is rising, but traders shouldn’t just look at the narrative

$BTW started getting widely discussed after the $1 target appeared more and more often in the community. For traders, this is interesting not only because of the upside potential, but because assets like this usually enter a phase that’s full of momentum—and full of traps.

If volume keeps coming in and market sentiment stays strong, there’s clearly a chance for it to continue rising. But the closer it gets to psychological levels like $1, the bigger the potential for profit-taking. At points like this, the market often moves fast, but it’s not always clean.

What matters now isn’t just believing the target, but checking whether the price action is truly supported by consistent buyers. Volume, reactions in the resistance area, and the strength of follow-through after a breakout are things you must monitor. If the hype is faster than the market’s strength, the risk of a correction also grows.

For traders, the best focus is confirmation—not assumptions. A narrative can make a coin fly, but without sustained volume, the rally can fade quickly. So if $BTW really wants to reach $1, the market has to prove it first through healthy structure and momentum that stays intact.

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#menjaditrader #BTW #cryptoindonesia #altcoin #tradingcrypto