陈副业

Trump’s latest remarks: “I’ve become a passionate supporter of crypto assets. I’m a fan.” He admitted that before the midpoint of his first term, he didn’t understand this market. It was only after he saw capital continuously flowing in that he changed course—and even tossed out the line, “If the United States doesn’t have it, China will have it.”

Even more thought-provoking is that when asked whether he would put Bitcoin into children-oriented investment accounts, “Trump Accounts,” he left the remark, “Maybe something could happen.”

There’s still no definitive conclusion at this point, but just being willing to loosen his stance in official settings is enough for the market to think through several layers. U.S. policy tone is becoming a key variable in market moves.#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto

The moment ADP Non-Farm Jobs report came out, the market pulled up with a big bullish candle. Many people thought they had finally gotten through the clouds and were about to see the bright moon. Then, with a turn, another large bearish candle smashed it back down—right when the late-chasers were chasing the price, they became bag-holders.

This is actually a true snapshot of the current market: gains don’t continue, and declines don’t go deep. After Bitcoin pulled back from 87,000, it has been repeatedly tugging between 82,000 and 84,000. The volatility is enough to scare people, but the spot holders’ coins are still being steadily accumulated—more like a rotation/hand-switching phase than a full trend reversal. Ethereum is chopping narrowly around 2,650, while 2,750–2,800 forms a strong resistance zone in the short term. On-chain data doesn’t look bad, but what’s missing is incremental capital entering with volume confirmation. Dogecoin is hovering near 0.093; momentum is clearly cooling off. Yet community enthusiasm hasn’t diminished—sentiment and price action are clearly diverging.

On the macro side, rate expectations and fund flows are still weighing on risk appetite. It’s hard for several major coins to decouple and run independent trends. After you’ve been through getting fooled once, you should know this: controlling your position size and responding in batches matters far more than trying to guess whether prices will rise or fall.

#BTC #ETH #DOGE #Federal Reserve

After the XDP new coin surged and then weakened all the way, the current price is 0.01994. The resistance above is 0.02401, and the support below is 0.01961. The coin’s holders’ positions are unstable, with extremely large fluctuations. The downside momentum has not been fully released yet. Once support is broken, it is likely to continue falling toward lower levels. Resistance overhead is heavy. In this stage, it is not recommended to bottom-fish; wait for confirmation signals that the trend has stabilized. $BTC $XDP $SOON #PCE数据 #美光财报 #US Treasury yields

The money has already entered the market—what breath does SOL still need?

First, look at real inflows: over the past week, U.S. spot ETFs saw net inflows of about $190 million. All seven products recorded inflows, which carries far more weight than just a sentence about “sentiment improving.” But since roughly 68% of the capital is concentrated in a single issuer, the next thing to watch is whether the buying pressure can keep spreading—rather than counting last week’s inflows again as future buying.

Next, look at how enterprises adopt this line: the reserve mechanism converts part of on-chain and off-chain service revenues into tokens and deposits them into the reserve. That gives business growth a traceable transmission path. Going forward, what matters is the actual conversion of revenue—not treating every partnership announcement as an equal amount of buying.

One more thing to distinguish is the quality of revenue: higher trading activity doesn’t necessarily translate into the same amount of income per trade. Fee rates and trading structure will affect where buybacks come from. What’s needed now is to see demand improving and prices stabilizing together—don’t rush to convert the bustle into potential upside space. #SOL #LINK #HYPE #cryptocurrency

Traditional financial behemoths are still quietly accumulating. The latest monitoring data shows that last week, Morgan Stanley increased its holdings by about 1,650 BTC via its spot Bitcoin ETF. Its total holdings first surpassed 10,000 coins, reaching 10,436 BTC, worth approximately $875 million. This isn’t retail investors randomly “charging in”—it’s institutions using the ETF channel to keep entering the market, with more and more chips moving toward Wall Street. Don’t let yourself get shaken out by short-term volatility—follow the big money, hold on to mainstream BTC, and the trend hasn’t ended yet. #BTC #ETH

ZEC current price 1459, up 3% over the past 24 hours. After rallying to 1493, it pulled back; the bulls haven’t left yet.

Technically: RSI6=61—bullish but not overbought. Momentum is still there. MACD: the DIF is above the DEA and the red histogram continues, so the trend hasn’t broken. However, the red histogram is starting to shrink; be cautious about chasing. KDJ’s three lines are all in the high zone, with the J line turning downward—there is a short-term need to digest profit-taking.

Key levels: Resistance overhead at 1494-1510—only if it holds above this will there be further upside. Support below at 1435 is the first line—holding it keeps the short-term bullish structure intact. If it loses it, the pullback could deepen. As for the broader market, BTC and ETH have been whipsawing in high ranges, with sentiment splitting. ZEC isn’t very independent; if “big cake” (BTC) pulls back, ZEC is likely to come under pressure too.

Don’t chase. Wait for the pullback and see how it holds support. #ZEC #加密货币 #Technical Analysis

Day 62 of daily investing in spot holdings. Today the market taught me another lesson.

The PCE data came in favorably. BTC, ETH, and SOL all surged and then pulled back. Now everyone is waiting for Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (nonfarm). Around $BTC 83600, support is at 83101 and resistance is at 84629. The range hasn’t broken yet—if you hold the support, you can keep grinding it out. $ETH 2675—2669 is the short-term strength/weakness pivot. If it breaks down, you need to be more cautious. $SOL 117.4 is a high-volatility product. On nonfarm day, the swings will only be bigger—make sure you control your position size. Data has been producing frequent wicks during the week, so don’t let single-day price action throw off your DCA (daily investing) rhythm. Before nonfarm, will you keep DCAing or pause to observe?

This is only my personal record and does not constitute investment advice.
#BTC #ETH #SOL #DCA

Tonight, besides the PCE, you also need to take a look at Micron’s earnings. Over the past year, AI has pulled funding from GPUs all the way to HBM, DRAM, NAND, and enterprise SSDs, and Micron’s stock price has risen by nearly 280%. The market now expects this quarter’s revenue to be close to $51 billion, up about 350% year over year. EPS could potentially rise more than 900% year over year. Moreover, some institutions estimate that by 2027, server DRAM demand may increase another ~80%, and demand for server and storage SSDs could even more than double. So what you’re watching tonight isn’t just Micron. As long as storage supply and demand remain tight and AI server demand hasn’t cooled—continuing to be confirmed—then the entire storage chain will likely be brought back into the market’s pricing. #美光 #AI存储 $MU $NVDA

【Still holding CORE long positions, give a wave in the comments】

These past two months, the market has been lively—altcoins have been pumping one after another, with $BTC and $ETH also continually setting new highs. The only thing in my hands, $CORE, is like it’s asleep. Ever since the day I opened the long, it’s been stuck at the bottom consolidating horizontally, with almost no movement.

I checked my positions: opening average price 0.02609, latest traded price 0.02279—the unrealized loss is already pretty ugly. It’s not true that I’m not worried; the two months of opportunity cost is right there.

So is CORE no longer getting attention because there’s no money behind it, or has all the capital gone to other altcoins? For now, I haven’t decided to give up—I just want to ask, how many fellow travelers are there?

#CORE #山寨币 #cryptocurrency

#US 30-year Treasury yield breaks 5.6%, highest since 2002

These past two days, U.S. Treasuries have really blown my mind.

The 30-year yield has surged to around 5.62%, the highest since 2002; the 10-year briefly touched 5.29% as well. A few days ago I was saying that having the 10-year above 5% was already scary—turns out long-dated bonds had no intention of stopping.

Even more outrageous: after Williams “bailed” earlier and rate-hike expectations clearly eased, the long end still kept pushing higher. This suggests the market isn’t just worried about whether the Fed will raise rates; the U.S. fiscal deficit, the massive issuance of new debt ahead, and inflation that won’t come down are all already being priced into long-term Treasuries.

What does a 30-year Treasury yield of 5.6% even mean? You don’t need to do anything—just holding the government bonds gets you over 5%. For richly valued tech stocks, <$BTC > if you want to keep pushing higher, you’ll need to give capital an even bigger reason.

But in such an extreme position, I don’t want to go straight short. If 5.6% can’t break through and instead starts drifting down to 5.5% and 5.4%, I’ll be ready to re-enter <$XAU > and tech stocks. If 5.6% holds steady and it really heads toward 6%, then I’ll definitely take some profits first.

Previously, every day I’d open and check $BTC first. Now, the first thing I do when I wake up is check U.S. Treasuries. If this keeps running, Treasuries will almost become more “stimulating” than the crypto market.

$BTC #BTC #US Treasuries

September 30 at 20:30 U.S. Core PCE will be released; on October 2 at 20:30 the Big Non-Farm payrolls unemployment rate will make an appearance. When these two pieces of data are lined up together, it’s very possible that this marks the bottom of this big-bets phase. Once the data is released and the bottom is confirmed, market sentiment will most likely shift toward “repair.” The window from October 2 to 8 is worth closely monitoring. But don’t treat it as a trend reversal—after this wave of gains, the end-of-October rate-hike bullish phase is also basically coming to a close, and the three-month long bullish rhythm that’s been in place since June will be concluded as well.
#BTC #加密货币 #Non-Farm

US August PCE came in below expectations across the board, putting the “re-acceleration of inflation” narrative—what crypto fears most—on pause. Year-on-year, the forecast was 3.7%, yet it slipped to 3.4%—lower than even a flat reading, meaning it directly removed the bottom card for “one more rate hike.” The transmission is straightforward: the probability of further rate hikes falls, the US dollar weakens in the short term, and funds rotate back into risk assets. As crypto is typically a high-beta US-dollar asset, it usually responds first. This is a classic script of a weak dollar and a strong crypto market: the logic chain is clean, with no complicated secondary transmission. Still, don’t rush to go all-in—long-end US Treasury yields remain high, and if they keep pushing higher, the room for rebounds may be consumed early. The data has opened a window; the direction will still depend on subsequent confirmation. #PCE #BTC #加密货币

The moment the PCE came out, the market immediately let out a breath of relief.

Core PCE came in at 3% year-over-year, below expectations of 3.3%, and it also hit the lowest level in half a year. The prior reading was revised downward as well. CME data shows the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October rose to 52.9%, while the odds of a 25-basis-point hike fell to 47.1%. Previously, the market had priced in hikes at around a 70% likelihood—overnight it swung back to a near-even 50-50.

After the data was released, BTC rallied from below 84,000, topping out around 85,600. ETH rose in tandem, up more than 1.5%, reaching around 2,730.

Put simply: inflation isn’t as sticky as the market feared, and consumption is still holding up strongly, so the economy hasn’t broken to the point where it absolutely has to add hikes immediately. But don’t get too excited yet—October 2nd’s nonfarm payrolls (NFP) will be the real key. If employment turns hot, rate-hike expectations could be pushed back up right away, and risk assets would take the first hit. For now, just watch the market—don’t rush to go all-in.

#BTC #ETH #PCE #美联储 #加息预期

PCE comes in, the market didn’t crash—instead it gave the bulls a fresh breath. August PCE year-over-year came in at 3.4%, core PCE at 3.0% y/y, and core month-over-month at 0.2%, below the prior 0.3% expectation. Core inflation didn’t keep accelerating, easing concerns in the market about the Fed tightening further. After the data, BTC and ETH both moved higher in sync—the price is the answer. I lean toward buying on pullbacks, but I don’t recommend chasing just because you see a bullish candle. For Bitcoin, look at $84,500 to $85,000; if the pullback doesn’t break and price reclaims the level, consider a long, with an initial target around $87,000. For Ethereum, watch around $2,700; after it holds, look for $2,750 to $2,800. Bias is bullish—wait for a pullback for entry.
#比特币 #以太坊 $BTC

$SNDK Sandisk fell straight through 1700 last night. In fact, the pre-market session had already been signaling weakness all the way down. This move isn’t just Sandisk acting alone; it’s that the entire semiconductor sector is getting hit. Intel, Hynix, and Micron all pulled back in sync. This is a sector-sentiment drag pulling the whole group along—there wasn’t any specific, separate major negative catalyst. The most important thing with this kind of convergent selloff is to figure out what’s driving it: is it just a sector sentiment pullback, or is there truly a problem in the company’s fundamentals? Next, keep a close watch on whether the sector can stop the decline first. Once the sector stabilizes, the stock may have a chance for a rebound/repair. If the sector keeps softening, it’s hard for the stock to stage an independent rebound. Don’t rush to bottom-pick—wait for stabilization signals. $BTC $ETH #半导体 #美光财报 # crypto market