渔夫_执棋者

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There is not much controversy about the big picture; in the short term, the market has basically already peaked. Many voices in the market keep repeatedly emphasizing that a bull market is still possible in the future. A bull market might still arrive later, but the appearance of a round of correction right now is already a high-probability event.

Once the market begins to pull back at the daily level, the risk will increase significantly. At this stage, you should properly focus on risk management and hedging. If you are genuinely convinced about a major bull market, you can simply ignore my views and continue to hold. But from a risk-control perspective, at high levels you should reduce exposure decisively rather than hoping for luck.

Don’t be misled by short-term rallies. Prepare your risk plan in advance, avoid drawdowns caused by a daily-level pullback, and protect the profits you already have.

Everyone can compare the trading volume during the true bull market start phase, then look at the volume over the last two months—it's clear at a glance that they’re different. In the early stage of a bull market, price rises must be supported by sustained volume; capital keeps flowing in, and the uptrend is solid.

In my view, this rally is very likely a bull trap designed to lure investors in. The market creates the illusion that a big surge is about to begin, attracting retail traders to chase the price higher. Meanwhile, the capital uses the opportunity to gradually distribute positions. This kind of breakout without volume is hard to sustain. Don’t be misled by short-term gains. Don’t blindly chase long positions. When trading, always pay attention to changes in volume and manage risk properly.

Brothers, empty empty empty. When we came to the palace, this wave is expected to reach 10,000 points. Defend above 83,000. The first target is 70,000.

No matter whether you placed an order at the current price on the 18th and added at 82k, or whether you got in on the 19th—right now you still have about 1k of room to profit and have earned $BTC

As long as it holds above 76200 and continues upward, it’s just a matter of time. Next, we’ll look at the resistance at the 773 level. ​​​

As you can see from the chart, when the Fed decision was approved in the early hours, it directly triggered a sell-off. Gold price quickly plunged to the 4235 low point, then a short-term oversold rebound followed. Now it is trading around 4306, consolidating.

This Fed meeting was overall hawkish. After the rate hike was confirmed, the market showed panic selling, pushing prices to new lows. Then a large number of short sellers took profit and exited, leading to a wave of corrective rebound. This is a pullback after a big drop, and we cannot yet conclude that a strong reversal is underway.

Resistance levels: the first resistance is 4338–4360; the strong resistance is 4400. Only if price holds above 4400 will the short-side setup be broken.

Support levels: short-term support is 4270, and the key low is 4235. Once 4235 is broken again, the downward trend will likely continue.

Today is most likely to see range-bound consolidation and recovery. If the rebound cannot push through the 4360 resistance, it may face renewed pressure and retest the lower levels;

Only if price holds above 4360 will the bulls gain further momentum to test the 4400 mark.
$XAU

Currently, the Federal Reserve’s remarks are hawkish; if it becomes more dovish later, gold will see a rebound.

Back when this post was published, there were still a lot of people who doubted it. So what about now?

Those who used to doubt it probably came along too by now.

Raise your hand—let me see how many people caught up, and how many watched all the way through with full attention.

Tonight, the Fed interest rate decision is on the stage—it's also the moment when another storm of market action is about to hit. As early as the 14th, I mentioned that the gold price would consolidate and trend downward toward the 4300 area, and the current market trend is basically in line with my forecast.

Now we just need to wait for the Fed’s decision to land later this evening, to verify whether the earlier call is correct—specifically, whether we’ll see a rebound after the decision that pushes toward 4400. If things do unfold as expected, and after the decision the gold price launches an upside advance toward 4400, then the current price level would be an opportunity to scale in on long positions. $XAU