老陌

#BTC

Short positions were liquidated by 560 million, and 100,000 accounts were wiped out. This scale shows that the market has indeed been moving to extremes recently.

But after one wave is cleared out, there are still short positions waiting above. If BTC can break through the 83-85K range, there may be another short squeeze.

The direction is not fully determined yet, but the recent trend is leaning toward bulls having the upper hand. I tend to wait until it gets past 83K before making a judgment.

#BTC

730 million inflow, historically corresponding to a 30% pullback.

Will it be the same this time? We’ll know soon.

#PONS

232x sounds great, but don't just focus on the gains.

The key is that Uniswap Labs recently confirmed it bought PONS, and the price jumped 500% that same day.

When a decentralized exchange giant buys the token of a token launch platform, it’s said to be a strategic partnership on the surface, but in reality Pons now accounts for more than 60% of the trading volume on Robinhood’s on-chain Launchpad, and Uniswap’s trading depth also depends on it. The math works out.

#BTC

Every time I reach this kind of position, the next step is more or less the same.

Those who needed to be aggressive have already been aggressive, and those who needed to wait have already finished waiting.

Then it’s time to choose a direction.

#BTC

After just sweeping the liquidity above, most likely the price will move to the other side next.

After the long positions in the 80 to 82K range are completely eaten up, the direction will turn toward the downside.

Targets: 74K, 60K, and finally 58K.

Only after all of these have played out should we consider a real reversal.

#BTC

It will reach 100K, but the path won’t be smooth.

There will be callbacks in between—setbacks and repeats—before you finally get there.

Don’t chase it; just wait.

#BTC #ETH #BMNR #MSTR

The books really do look good lately.

BTC, ETH, BMNR, and MSTR are all moving up; the most extreme one, MSTR, has already surged by over 40%.

But honestly, while seeing gains like this is exhilarating, it’s also easy to get carried away.

#BTC

September hasn’t finished yet, but the historical data is already there.

On average, it’s down 2.92%. Not a deep drop, but it’s not a good month either.

However, the October that follows averages nearly a 20% gain. In the past 13 years, 10 of those years were green.

So if September really does fall, it may be making room for October.

#BTC

50K or 100K?

Actually, there’s no need to rush to answer this.

Just look at the structure—since we’re still moving upward and the trend hasn’t turned bad, I won’t guess the top.

Wait for the signals to appear, then we’ll talk.

#BTC

This pullback and consolidation does look a bit awkward, but sometimes “awkward” itself is a sign of a new trend starting.

Many people think it’s fake because they haven’t yet adapted to this rhythm.

I’m inclined to observe a bit more: if these next few days can hold steady without a pullback, then it probably isn’t a trap—it could be a real rotation in position.

#BTC

When the business cycle crosses zero, Bitcoin hasn’t missed it yet.

This is the fifth time.

If history holds, then this is the starting point now—not the end.

#BTC

There really is selling pressure around 80K, but I feel that after this area has been tested repeatedly, it’s actually not as scary anymore.

Every time price reaches this zone, sell orders show up, but the price doesn’t really drop much. This shows that the buying power underneath has been there all along.

What really matters isn’t how thick the sell wall is, but whether it can hold up when the price pulls back. If every time it drops to 75K it bounces back, then the sell pressure is just a paper tiger.

#BTC

To be honest, today’s 81K and the 60K from a few weeks ago are indeed not logically the same.

Back at 60K, everyone was waiting for a deeper bottom. The reasons were that the macro outlook was unclear and geopolitical risks hadn’t materialized yet. These concerns are reasonable; it’s not that being cautious is wrong.

Today’s 81K has been pushed up in a context where all the negatives—such as the U.S.-Iran conflict and rate-hike expectations—are still present. The market didn’t necessarily get better; there’s simply more money.

So for those who didn’t buy at 60K, it doesn’t necessarily mean they lacked conviction—it could also be because they were looking at a longer time horizon.

Some people are waiting for certainty, not whether the price is high or low. At 60K, certainty wasn’t high; at 81K, certainty also isn’t necessarily higher.

#BTC

“This time, it’s different” is the most expensive sentence in the market.

In every cycle, someone believes it—yet in every cycle, it’s proven wrong.

It isn’t that this time is special; it’s that human nature has never changed.

#BTC

$85 billion wiped out, BTC falls back to 77K, and ETH breaks above 2400. It’s the same story again—US-Iran tensions. Every time, it’s the same script.

But what’s different this time is that gold and BTC are both dropping. The “hard assets” narrative is being slapped in the face; the market is trading inflation expectations, not safe-haven demand.

Once oil prices surge, interest rates can’t come down. That’s the real thing BTC is afraid of.

#BTC #ETH
$42.4 billion sounds quite impressive, but on the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, it’s actually just a small portion.

What’s really interesting is that this year, the Fed has been “drip-feeding” liquidity to the market through regular bond purchases and repo operations.

Just in the past week alone, it injected several tens of billions through various channels.

This is what you should pay attention to—the direction is shifting, and liquidity is gradually turning more accommodative.

#BTC #NVDA #VST

Price gets hammered at the start of the month and pulled up by the end—this script is just too smooth. I don’t think it will necessarily play out this way.

A VIX move to 25–30 is possible, but the timing of the pullback may not be at the end of the month. Liquidity in the market is worse than it was in the past few months, so the repair/adjustment cycle could take longer.

I’m going to be more cautious. I won’t rush to go all-in at the beginning of the month. I’d rather be half a step late than bet on the exact timing of a rebound.

#BTC

The golden cross is definitely coming—I don’t deny that it’s a historically effective signal. But there’s one detail that many people don’t mention: in past cases, the golden cross has usually appeared after the price has already bounced up quite a bit from the bottom. This time is the same too—BTC rose from 62K to 81K, and the golden cross only arrived late. The signal is real, but the best entry point may already be gone. I’m more inclined to wait for a pullback and confirmation before taking action, rather than chasing this golden cross itself.

#BTC

There is indeed a “breakthrough” occurring, and the bears have reasons as well. But I’m not that pessimistic.

It didn’t get through three times—that’s true, but it doesn’t mean it has to be driven straight down to 48K. There is also a consolidation zone in between; it won’t just fall freely all the way down.

I tend to first watch how it performs around 64K. We’ll deal with what comes next once we get there.

#BTC

Everything is set.

Those that need to be bought have been bought; those that need to wait are waiting.

The rest is up to time.