BITWU

Winter has come, and many people have privately messaged saying that they had reached A7,8 in assets during the bull market, but due to greed didn't sell and saw their investments halve; there are too many stories like this recently.

I checked the DBTI trading personality for you at x.com/CalculusFinance, and this situation is the most typical DANV (high volatility aggressive type).

The core issue with this personality type is not their judgment ability, but that they can make profits but won't take them. They often enter the market earlier than others, understand trends, but take 'the bull market continues' as the default premise and see pullbacks as normal fluctuations until it's too late.

I also did a test for myself, and the result was: DBTV.

After testing myself, my brain automatically started the 'matching mode'. So if I guess the DBTI of people in the circle——

@CZ
It feels to me like:
Not swayed by emotions
Always standing on the side of the longer cycle
(DBTS / CBTS vibes)

@Yi He
More like:
Can understand the story
Also dare to make decisions at critical moments
(DBTV / DBNV vibes)

I might be completely wrong,
But the greatest fun of this thing is:
Guessing people is more fun than guessing the market trends.

What type do you think they would be?

👉 Test market-making personality entry: https://calculus.finance
Invitation code: GZTr

⚠️ It's not just gold and silver; US software stocks have also crashed, facing the worst annual start in years!

As the Nasdaq approaches historical highs, several traditional SaaS companies' stocks have recorded the largest weekly declines;

One could say that the release of Claude Cowork AI demonstrates capabilities and speed of change unprecedented, completely accelerating the performance divergence of software stocks and other areas of the tech sector!

Over the past decade, the US software sector has enjoyed a triple bonus:

1) Low interest rates → Extremely low discount rates → Maximization of forward cash flows

2) SaaS model → High gross margins + High renewal rates → Able to tell the lifetime value story

3) Cloud transformation → The market is willing to give a premium for predictable growth

The result is a typical phenomenon:

As long as you are SaaS + high growth + attractive ARR — even if you are not profitable, you can expect 15–30 times your valuation.

However, with the emergence of AI, the marginal cost of some software functions has approached 0, leading to a significant migration of funds —

Application layer SaaS → Flowing into AI infrastructure + computing power + chips + platform-level models

Following this trend, regardless of how cheap the stock price is or how large the decline is, it seems that there are currently no reasons left to hold software stocks!

🧐Don't try to catch the bottom, stop self-destructing, and enjoy the New Year

Historical major corrections after significant surges in gold and silver:

Gold: 3–6 months:

Peak in August 2020: ≈ 2075 USD, returned to above 2000+: March 2022, from the peak: about 19 months, is considered "back to normal".

Silver: 6–12 months:

Peak in August 2020: ≈ 29.8 USD, truly returning and stabilizing above 30: 2024, from the peak: nearly 3.5–4 years, before it fully returns to normal. Trapped everyone for three to four years.

Emotional short squeeze market, the time correction must be greater than the price correction, so I agree with Banana Brother's statement:

Don't try to catch the bottom!

Isn't this line of the big drop in silver the well-known Super Mario market? It's similar to some scam!

Today I also saw someone say that the drop in gold and silver is due to Binance listing contracts,

laughing out loud, now every blame goes to Binance, its influence is so great that it can directly cause the collapse of gold and silver prices, amazing!

The color is very festive, welcoming the Chinese New Year!

American brothers wish everyone a happy Lunar New Year in advance!

⚡️vePENDLE officially exits the historical stage, and @Pendle has also updated the LP incentive model accordingly——

The algorithmic incentive model is online, and the overall APR for LP is expected to improve, making it more profitable for family members to do LP in the future!

The new model mainly changes the incentive allocation from "human choice" to "data-driven," focusing on only two indicators: TVL and transaction fees.

The algorithm will dynamically allocate weights between the two, automatically deciding where to distribute incentives without manual intervention.

In the early stages, it is more biased towards TVL to guide liquidity to come in; in the later stages, it gradually shifts towards transaction fees to reward actual transactions.

Thus, this model essentially forces the profitability of LP back to the selection of pools themselves.

The larger the trading volume and the higher the transaction fees of a pool, the more willing the model is to continue distributing; obscure pools will not be maintained indefinitely, and incentives will be automatically withdrawn.

This not only fundamentally improves the efficiency of incentives but also reduces waste for Pendle, with an expected reduction of approximately 30% in the $PENDLE emission.

Under the logic of the strong getting stronger, the operating strategy becomes simpler:

👉 Focus only on actual transactions, prioritizing the LP of the most active pools in the current period.

Additionally, although ve-boost is gone, if external protocols are willing to contribute funds, Pendle will also jointly incentivize, potentially leveraging rewards up to 1.4X times.

For those who do LP long-term, the rewards from a single pool will be greater than before, representing a noticeably more worry-free and predictable change!

⚡️Bank of America Hartnett believes that gold will continue to rise!

In this new world order of currency devaluation, populism, and excessive fiscal expansion, gold will be in a long-term bull market——

And the end of the gold bull market is often due to a significant event,

Such as Nixon's resignation in 1974, the Volcker interest rate shock in 1980, the end of the EU debt crisis in 2012, and the emergence of the COVID-19 vaccine in 2020.

A moment of reflection:

In the past 60 years, the average price increase during the 4 gold bull markets has been 300%. Based on this price extrapolation, this round of gold price peak should exceed $6000.

⚡️ Some say I'm just shouting nonsense. Looking at the trend of America's debt, I say that $BTC can reach 1 million dollars one day is by no means an empty talk——

In the past 25 years, U.S. public debt has increased from less than 6 trillion dollars to 38.5 trillion dollars, with an annual compound growth rate of nearly 8%!

At this growth rate, nominal growth cannot keep up with the compounding of debt. Relying solely on maintaining an inflation level of 2%-3% and economic growth cannot resolve the debt!

This brings up a very real question: with debt at this scale, what path can America choose?

A true hard landing to repay debts is almost impossible, which means fiscal tightening, asset price collapse, and soaring unemployment, leaving almost no room for maneuver in real politics. Which government would dare to take the blame?

The remaining options are not very respectable:

1⃣ Tariffs + territorial aggression + economic colonialism: quick returns on small investments, making money without regard to all rules!

2⃣ Repeatedly combining tools: lowering real interest rates, tolerating inflation, and slowly exporting debt pressure through the financial system and global pricing power.

In other words, what America truly pursues may not be to actually reduce the scale of debt, but to make it look controllable, which must rely on fiscal dominance, financial repression, or a weakening dollar to maintain debt sustainability.

This has also been my long-standing judgment:

For a long time to come, risks will not be released in the concentrated form of textbook explosions, but will be continuously spread out by policies and inflation.

This concealment is precisely the most terrifying part. Those who firmly believe that nominal safe assets, cash, and fixed income can retain value will have their asset purchasing power eroded over the long term without them even noticing.

Therefore, in a system where debt can only be diluted and not liquidated, assets like gold and BTC that cannot be inflated will become increasingly important, inherently possessing hedging properties.

Even if BTC is relatively quiet at the current stage and its price performance lags behind, its attributes determine that it will ultimately reach heights beyond the reach of most people!

If you don't believe it, come back in 10 years and slap me in the face!

⚡️Citigroup updates research report, predicting silver to rise to $150 in the coming weeks——

The most astonishing thing is that the surge in silver prices is occurring against the backdrop of multiple traditional bearish indicators:

1⃣COMEX silver inventories have seen a net outflow of about 100 million ounces since last October.

2⃣Global silver ETFs (excluding China) have experienced a net outflow of about 270 million ounces since December.

3⃣CFTC data shows that some managed funds have taken profits during the price increase.

With macro risk premiums and China's crazy retail demand, the fundamentals have completely broken down, making it difficult to judge the peak!

This speculative sentiment cannot be analyzed based on fundamentals, similar to the significant margin call incident caused by crude oil futures dropping to negative during the pandemic:

It is purely about blowing up all opposing positions, gaining pricing power, and only when no one dares to short again will it return to normal.

Doing nothing is more important than doing something;

Think about your 2026: stop doing list

Consider the past few years, which things:

If you don't do them, can help you retain a lot of wealth;
If you don't do them, can make you happier and more joyful than now; If you don't do them, can make you healthier?

Many people ask: How to make money? But the truth is not what everyone thinks: Money is not earned; it is just a form of reward.

Money is the result of being repeatedly confirmed and rewarded by society after you continuously create certainty for others in long-term relationships.

So money is a result, not a goal. If you take money as a goal, you are likely to become someone else's target: a pawn.

Your ability to solve problems for others determines your wealth ceiling; your core co-creation circle, your altruistic spirit, and your ability to help others solve problems are essentially all about creating wealth, although you may not see it in the short term.

This also explains a cruel but true conclusion: All high income is essentially the monetization of "altruistic thinking" + "cognitive density".

When you start to think about this concept in reverse, what you focus on is no longer 'how to earn more', but rather:

1️⃣ Am I solving a real problem now?
2️⃣ Can I explain complex problems clearly and provide structure amidst chaos?
3️⃣ Can I provide certainty when others are anxious?
4️⃣ Do I have a group of long-term co-builders around me? Can I truly provide help to them?
5️⃣ If we don’t talk about money, will they still be willing to continue with me?

As long as the answers to these questions are 'yes', money will come sooner or later, and it will come quietly, neither rushed nor slow;