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Remains in a consolidation phase after dropping from the US$1.60 level earlier this month. On Thursday afternoon (Feb 12), the price was trading around US$1.37–US$1.38, attempting to hold a key support area.
Selling pressure has started to ease. Exchange reserves are declining, and community sentiment is improving following XRP Community Day. The big question is: is this momentum strong enough to end the sideways movement?
Price Still Trapped Below Key Resistance
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows XRP moving in the middle to lower range of the Bollinger Bands, with volatility beginning to contract. Band compression typically signals a consolidation phase after selling pressure fades.

However, the price has yet to break above the middle Bollinger Band (around the 20-day moving average). As long as XRP remains below this level, strong resistance sits in the US$1.45–US$1.50 range.

On the downside, US$1.35 serves as the nearest support. If this level fails, the next potential downside target is around US$1.28.

In short, the current market structure remains neutral to slightly bearish with no confirmed trend reversal yet.

Selling Pressure Is Fading, But No Strong Inflows Yet

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator is still slightly below zero but has started to move upward from its recent lows. This suggests that selling pressure is gradually weakening.

That said, capital inflows have not yet returned in a meaningful way. Without a significant increase in volume, XRP risks continuing to trade within a narrow range.

Exchange Reserves Are Declining
On-chain data shows that XRP reserves on Binance have been decreasing in recent weeks. Lower exchange reserves generally mean fewer tokens are readily available for spot selling.
In theory, reduced supply on exchanges can ease short-term selling pressure. However, price rallies depend not only on supply reduction but also on rising demand.

Without a surge in buying interest or a strong catalyst, lower reserves alone may not be enough to drive a breakout.

How Big Is the Impact of XRP Community Day?
XRP Community Day primarily focuses on ecosystem updates and community engagement within the XRP Ledger. While it can improve sentiment and increase participation, it does not necessarily introduce immediate price-moving announcements.
During a consolidation phase, positive sentiment can act as short-term momentum fuel. However, its impact tends to be limited without support from broader factors such as:
Bitcoin’s price movement
Overall crypto market inflows
Major regulatory or fundamental catalysts
Conclusion: Confirmation Is Still Needed
To truly end the sideways phase, XRP needs to:
Hold firmly above the US$1.35 support level
Break convincingly above US$1.45 with strong volume
Until a valid breakout occurs, consolidation remains the primary scenario.
XRP Community Day may boost sentiment, but technical confirmation remains the key to a trend reversal.
$XRP

The crypto market enters mid-February 2026 with high tension. After facing heavy pressure earlier this month, Bitcoin ($BTC ) is currently attempting to consolidate its strength in the $68,000 - $70,000 range. However, the big question remains: is this recovery strong enough to reverse the bearish trend that has persisted since the October peak?
Here is a deep dive into the current market conditions:
1. Market Sentiment: Extreme Fear Dominance
According to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, the market is currently at level 9 (Extreme Fear). This is one of the lowest points in the past year. Psychologically, this figure reflects retail investor exhaustion after seeing BTC correct more than 45% from its All-Time High ($126,000).
Historically, however, the "Extreme Fear" zone often serves as an accumulation area for "smart money" or Whales looking for exit liquidity from panicked retail sellers.
2. Technical Analysis: The $70,000 Psychological Resistance
Technically, Bitcoin faces a major hurdle at the $70,000 level.
* Support Zone: The $61,000 - $64,000 area proved to be a strong cushion during last week’s massive sell-off.
* Resistance Zone: BTC needs to break and hold above $72,000 to confirm that the current move is not just a "dead cat bounce."
* RSI Indicator: Shows oversold conditions on the daily timeframe, providing room for a short-term technical rebound.
3. On-Chain Dynamics: ETF Inflows vs. Institutional Selling
Recent data shows net inflows into U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs of approximately $145 million - $166 million over the last few days. This is a positive signal that despite price pressure, institutional interest is gradually returning at a discount.
However, be warned that overall spot trading volume remains 25-30% below late 2025 levels, indicating that market liquidity is still thin.
4. Macro Factors & Seasonal Cycles
Heading into the 2026 Lunar New Year period, we typically see selling pressure in the Asian region due to the need for cash for celebrations. However, post-celebration (late February), the market often sees "new money" flowing in. This year, that dynamic clashes with uncertainty regarding U.S. interest rate policies, keeping investors in a "wait and see" mode.
Conclusion & Trading Plan
Bitcoin is currently in a crucial phase. If BTC fails to consistently reclaim the $70,000 level this week, the risk of retesting the $60,000 area remains wide open.
Strategies to consider:
* HODL & Accumulate: For long-term investors, the area below $70k is an attractive "dollar-cost averaging" zone, given that Bitcoin’s fundamentals as a hedge asset remain intact.
* Wait & See: For short-term traders, confirming a break above the $72,000 resistance is a safer signal before taking long positions.
Disclaimer: This article is not financial advice. Always do your own research (DYOR) before making investment decisions.
$BTC
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