阿简在路上
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阿简在路上
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野生加密研究员｜用数据拆解市场叙事｜长期主义｜NFA｜📩 DM Open
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Even a salted fish should have dreams! Welcome, friends—come give Ajian a kick! 🥳
Even a salted fish should have dreams! Welcome, friends—come give Ajian a kick! 🥳
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Nominations are now open for the 2026 Global Blockchain Top 100 Creator Awards!
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These shoes are so stylish and cool, but every time I wear knee-high socks, it makes me feel like I’m kinda gay-gay 🤧
These shoes are so stylish and cool, but every time I wear knee-high socks, it makes me feel like I’m kinda gay-gay 🤧
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Verified
Ripple has officially partnered with Meritz Securities to explore institutional custody and asset tokenization services in South Korea. If I remember correctly, this should be Ripple’s first securities partner in South Korea, and the partnership is closer to jointly building financial infrastructure than to a simple ecosystem collaboration. Who handles custody, who serves institutions, and how tokenized assets are issued and settled could all affect real revenue and the price of $XRP . For now, we’ll have to wait and see when it starts generating revenue and completes the business cycle.
{future}(XRPUSDT)
Ripple has officially partnered with Meritz Securities to explore institutional custody and asset tokenization services in South Korea. If I remember correctly, this should be Ripple’s first securities partner in South Korea, and the partnership is closer to jointly building financial infrastructure than to a simple ecosystem collaboration. Who handles custody, who serves institutions, and how tokenized assets are issued and settled could all affect real revenue and the price of $XRP . For now, we’ll have to wait and see when it starts generating revenue and completes the business cycle.
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Without a doubt, today’s market focus is the upcoming U.S. September CPI release. The rebound in energy prices, volatility in AI-related stocks, and rises in oil prices and long-term Treasury yields could all push headline inflation higher. For $BTC , we need to focus more specifically on three things:
First, how far do the actual figures differ from market expectations?
Second, has core inflation moved in the same direction? If headline inflation is driven mainly by energy, the market may interpret it differently than a broad rise in service prices and core inflation.
Third, how will the dollar, Treasury yields, and risk assets react after the data is released? If the figures come in high but the market has already priced that in, prices may not continue to fall. If the figures meet expectations but yields rise, the market may reassess the rate path.
So A Jian will treat CPI as a checkpoint for testing market expectations, not as a reason to decide the direction in advance. Volatility may intensify around the release, so don’t neglect position sizing and stop-losses because of a single news flash.#9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何
{future}(BTCUSDT)
Without a doubt, today’s market focus is the upcoming U.S. September CPI release. The rebound in energy prices, volatility in AI-related stocks, and rises in oil prices and long-term Treasury yields could all push headline inflation higher. For $BTC , we need to focus more specifically on three things:
First, how far do the actual figures differ from market expectations?
Second, has core inflation moved in the same direction? If headline inflation is driven mainly by energy, the market may interpret it differently than a broad rise in service prices and core inflation.
Third, how will the dollar, Treasury yields, and risk assets react after the data is released? If the figures come in high but the market has already priced that in, prices may not continue to fall. If the figures meet expectations but yields rise, the market may reassess the rate path.
So A Jian will treat CPI as a checkpoint for testing market expectations, not as a reason to decide the direction in advance. Volatility may intensify around the release, so don’t neglect position sizing and stop-losses because of a single news flash.#9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何
First, how far do the actual figures differ from market expectations?
Second, has core inflation moved in the same direction? If headline inflation is driven mainly by energy, the market may interpret it differently than a broad rise in service prices and core inflation.
Third, how will the dollar, Treasury yields, and risk assets react after the data is released? If the figures come in high but the market has already priced that in, prices may not continue to fall. If the figures meet expectations but yields rise, the market may reassess the rate path.
So A Jian will treat CPI as a checkpoint for testing market expectations, not as a reason to decide the direction in advance. Volatility may intensify around the release, so don’t neglect position sizing and stop-losses because of a single news flash.#9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何
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Bullish
Verified
Just in: Aptos has launched an optional Encrypted Mempool, allowing users to choose, on a transaction-by-transaction basis, whether to encrypt the function calls and parameters of pending transactions, reducing the risk of front-running and sandwich attacks. Sounds cool, but pay attention to the word “optional”: if wallets and apps haven’t integrated it, ordinary users may not benefit automatically. Ajian will keep an eye on how many real transactions enter the encryption process and what the experience is like when transactions fail or are delayed, before discussing how value flows through to $APT
{future}(APTUSDT)
Just in: Aptos has launched an optional Encrypted Mempool, allowing users to choose, on a transaction-by-transaction basis, whether to encrypt the function calls and parameters of pending transactions, reducing the risk of front-running and sandwich attacks. Sounds cool, but pay attention to the word “optional”: if wallets and apps haven’t integrated it, ordinary users may not benefit automatically. Ajian will keep an eye on how many real transactions enter the encryption process and what the experience is like when transactions fail or are delayed, before discussing how value flows through to $APT
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Bullish
Verified
The Sui Foundation has just made a $30 million strategic investment in DATA Network, which is planning to migrate its protocol and token to Sui. At first glance, this news might seem like a bullish catalyst for $SUI , but the reality is that the foundation’s willingness to spend money to attract a project is an investment in the ecosystem—not evidence that users have already paid, and it certainly won’t directly translate into a higher token price. To avoid falling into this kind of information-arbitrage trap, you still need to watch three key factors in token value capture: whether the migration is completed, whether the product retains users, and whether it generates attributable economic activity.
{future}(SUIUSDT)
The Sui Foundation has just made a $30 million strategic investment in DATA Network, which is planning to migrate its protocol and token to Sui. At first glance, this news might seem like a bullish catalyst for $SUI , but the reality is that the foundation’s willingness to spend money to attract a project is an investment in the ecosystem—not evidence that users have already paid, and it certainly won’t directly translate into a higher token price. To avoid falling into this kind of information-arbitrage trap, you still need to watch three key factors in token value capture: whether the migration is completed, whether the product retains users, and whether it generates attributable economic activity.
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Bullish
Verified
Hong Kong’s second Solana ETF, 2831.HK, issued by Pando Finance, officially listed today. Its stated annual fee is 1.6%, and $SOL is held in custody under arrangements involving HashKey. I won’t claim that the listing will directly drive SOL higher, since a listing alone is not proof of demand. But for people who can’t hold the tokens directly, another access point is a real additional option. I’ll continue to monitor the stock’s trading volume, bid-ask spread, and ongoing fund flows
{future}(SOLUSDT)
Hong Kong’s second Solana ETF, 2831.HK, issued by Pando Finance, officially listed today. Its stated annual fee is 1.6%, and $SOL is held in custody under arrangements involving HashKey. I won’t claim that the listing will directly drive SOL higher, since a listing alone is not proof of demand. But for people who can’t hold the tokens directly, another access point is a real additional option. I’ll continue to monitor the stock’s trading volume, bid-ask spread, and ongoing fund flows
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Bullish
On October 12, U.S. spot $ETH ETF products saw net outflows of about $85.4 million, marking the 10th consecutive trading day of net outflows. Ajian recommends that anyone holding ETH take a fresh look at why they entered their position before making any moves: Is it because ETFs will keep bringing in incremental buying, or because of long-term demand for use? You can’t simply let vision take the place of data. You may leave your position unchanged for now, but your reasons for buying shouldn’t go unexamined forever. #以太坊现货ETF上周净流出5.42亿美元
{future}(ETHUSDT)
On October 12, U.S. spot $ETH ETF products saw net outflows of about $85.4 million, marking the 10th consecutive trading day of net outflows. Ajian recommends that anyone holding ETH take a fresh look at why they entered their position before making any moves: Is it because ETFs will keep bringing in incremental buying, or because of long-term demand for use? You can’t simply let vision take the place of data. You may leave your position unchanged for now, but your reasons for buying shouldn’t go unexamined forever. #以太坊现货ETF上周净流出5.42亿美元
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Verified
According to Citi’s forecast, the U.S. Treasury may reduce auction sizes for 20- and 30-year bonds next quarter, and may even consider canceling 20-year issuance in favor of issuing more short-term Treasury bills. Although the Treasury has yet to confirm these plans, A Jian believes this is highly significant news. It will directly affect term premiums, the duration positioning of banks and funds, and dollar liquidity, while also indirectly affecting the pricing of high-beta assets such as $BTC . Don’t interpret an increase in short-term debt issuance as a massive liquidity injection: if demand for long-term bonds is insufficient, this would be little more than quenching one’s thirst with poison.
{future}(BTCUSDT)
According to Citi’s forecast, the U.S. Treasury may reduce auction sizes for 20- and 30-year bonds next quarter, and may even consider canceling 20-year issuance in favor of issuing more short-term Treasury bills. Although the Treasury has yet to confirm these plans, A Jian believes this is highly significant news. It will directly affect term premiums, the duration positioning of banks and funds, and dollar liquidity, while also indirectly affecting the pricing of high-beta assets such as $BTC . Don’t interpret an increase in short-term debt issuance as a massive liquidity injection: if demand for long-term bonds is insufficient, this would be little more than quenching one’s thirst with poison.
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Bullish
Verified
$AVAX It has risen about 46.9% over the past 30 days, suggesting that investors are starting to revalue some L1 and RWA assets. But judging by the price action over the past few days, A Jian believes this is no risk-free, straight-up rally. The price has moved beyond the narrative-driven launch phase and into a phase where it needs data to sustain the momentum. You could say Helicon’s upgrade has lit the fire; now we need to see whether real users, on-chain fees, the scale of RWA assets, and developer activity can keep it burning brighter. I’ll keep an eye on whether the area around $10 can turn from resistance into support. I’d rather miss out than be the last one buying at the peak of euphoria
{future}(AVAXUSDT)
$AVAX It has risen about 46.9% over the past 30 days, suggesting that investors are starting to revalue some L1 and RWA assets. But judging by the price action over the past few days, A Jian believes this is no risk-free, straight-up rally. The price has moved beyond the narrative-driven launch phase and into a phase where it needs data to sustain the momentum. You could say Helicon’s upgrade has lit the fire; now we need to see whether real users, on-chain fees, the scale of RWA assets, and developer activity can keep it burning brighter. I’ll keep an eye on whether the area around $10 can turn from resistance into support. I’d rather miss out than be the last one buying at the peak of euphoria
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Bearish
Partly True
$STRK STRK benefited from the news that “StarkWare is considering making Starknet an independent, quantum-resistant Layer 1,” rising as much as 116.7% last week. After all, the market has always favored the narrative of moving from L2 to L1 to regain sovereignty. However, I’m reluctant to treat an architectural roadmap as a direct reflection of a token’s fundamentals. A more realistic view is that STRK is currently facing two forces at once: buying pressure from the new narrative, and potential selling pressure from unlocks. For now, it seems the good news is already priced in. We should start watching whether the migration actually happens, whether developers and liquidity follow, and whether the token’s value capture changes.#STRK24小时上涨约20%
{future}(STRKUSDT)
$STRK STRK benefited from the news that “StarkWare is considering making Starknet an independent, quantum-resistant Layer 1,” rising as much as 116.7% last week. After all, the market has always favored the narrative of moving from L2 to L1 to regain sovereignty. However, I’m reluctant to treat an architectural roadmap as a direct reflection of a token’s fundamentals. A more realistic view is that STRK is currently facing two forces at once: buying pressure from the new narrative, and potential selling pressure from unlocks. For now, it seems the good news is already priced in. We should start watching whether the migration actually happens, whether developers and liquidity follow, and whether the token’s value capture changes.#STRK24小时上涨约20%
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The Ledger situation is escalating. There are now confirmed reports that some European users found unauthorized hardware implants in Ledger hardware wallets they bought from official local distributors. Although no funds have been stolen so far, the damage to trust in Ledger as a whole is unavoidable. Ajian would like to remind everyone once again that hardware wallet security depends on every layer working together: the supply chain, firmware, initialization, and seed phrase storage. Don’t assume that buying a device means you can rest easy. #Ledger确认用户设备遭植入未授权硬件
The Ledger situation is escalating. There are now confirmed reports that some European users found unauthorized hardware implants in Ledger hardware wallets they bought from official local distributors. Although no funds have been stolen so far, the damage to trust in Ledger as a whole is unavoidable. Ajian would like to remind everyone once again that hardware wallet security depends on every layer working together: the supply chain, firmware, initialization, and seed phrase storage. Don’t assume that buying a device means you can rest easy. #Ledger确认用户设备遭植入未授权硬件
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$NEAR , what happened? It went up so suddenly, I wasn't prepared.
$NEAR , what happened? It went up so suddenly, I wasn't prepared.
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I finally found time today to watch *A Letter to Grandma*. It’s a two-hour movie, but I watched it on and off for almost four hours because I kept pausing it along the way—I couldn’t bear to finish it. Halfway through, I already had a feeling the ending would make me sob, and sure enough, the moment Nanzhi called out “Sister Shurou,” the tears came streaming down. I can barely remember the last time I cried at a movie—probably when I watched *Hachi: A Dog’s Tale* in middle school. I don’t know what else to say. It’s just a lovely, gentle film that feels so comforting to watch. I recommend it to everyone 🥹
I finally found time today to watch *A Letter to Grandma*. It’s a two-hour movie, but I watched it on and off for almost four hours because I kept pausing it along the way—I couldn’t bear to finish it. Halfway through, I already had a feeling the ending would make me sob, and sure enough, the moment Nanzhi called out “Sister Shurou,” the tears came streaming down. I can barely remember the last time I cried at a movie—probably when I watched *Hachi: A Dog’s Tale* in middle school. I don’t know what else to say. It’s just a lovely, gentle film that feels so comforting to watch. I recommend it to everyone 🥹
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Bullish
Jian thinks that, based on the current landscape, AI + crypto can broadly be divided into two areas: payments and settlement; and Agent ownership and commercialization. For most traders in the space, what matters more than whether AI can change the world is whether an Agent can actually make payments, purchase services, settle revenue, and cover costs. So when looking at projects such as $TAO and $NEAR , it’s best to first examine the payment and revenue flows, then the token
{future}(TAOUSDT)
{future}(NEARUSDT)
Jian thinks that, based on the current landscape, AI + crypto can broadly be divided into two areas: payments and settlement; and Agent ownership and commercialization. For most traders in the space, what matters more than whether AI can change the world is whether an Agent can actually make payments, purchase services, settle revenue, and cover costs. So when looking at projects such as $TAO and $NEAR , it’s best to first examine the payment and revenue flows, then the token
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Bullish
$SUI Although it has pulled back about 5.2% over the past week, it’s up about 54% over the past 30 days, and TVL has also grown by about 15.5%. In Ajian’s view, this is a classic strong altcoin setup: improving long-term data, rising short-term prices, and a rotation between older and newer holders. So rising TVL alongside a falling price doesn’t necessarily mean the token’s fundamentals have deteriorated. SUI’s on-chain data and ecosystem narrative are indeed strengthening; it may simply be that the price has already priced in a substantial portion of those expectations. Next, it’s worth watching support around $1, DeFi revenue, stablecoin supply, and funding rates.
{future}(SUIUSDT)
$SUI Although it has pulled back about 5.2% over the past week, it’s up about 54% over the past 30 days, and TVL has also grown by about 15.5%. In Ajian’s view, this is a classic strong altcoin setup: improving long-term data, rising short-term prices, and a rotation between older and newer holders. So rising TVL alongside a falling price doesn’t necessarily mean the token’s fundamentals have deteriorated. SUI’s on-chain data and ecosystem narrative are indeed strengthening; it may simply be that the price has already priced in a substantial portion of those expectations. Next, it’s worth watching support around $1, DeFi revenue, stablecoin supply, and funding rates.
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Bullish
Verified
Ripple-backed XRP treasury company Evernorth has officially announced the completion of its SPAC merger with Armada Acquisition Corp. II, adding approximately 473M $XRP and $300M in cash, and plans to begin trading on Nasdaq under the ticker XRPN on October 12. It can be said that this gives XRP a new institutional balance-sheet narrative, of course this does not mean the market will immediately see buying of the same scale. It is recommended to continue monitoring how XRP is custodied, how long the cash can last, whether accumulation continues, and whether a financing squeeze is triggered after XRP declines
{future}(XRPUSDT)
Ripple-backed XRP treasury company Evernorth has officially announced the completion of its SPAC merger with Armada Acquisition Corp. II, adding approximately 473M $XRP and $300M in cash, and plans to begin trading on Nasdaq under the ticker XRPN on October 12. It can be said that this gives XRP a new institutional balance-sheet narrative, of course this does not mean the market will immediately see buying of the same scale. It is recommended to continue monitoring how XRP is custodied, how long the cash can last, whether accumulation continues, and whether a financing squeeze is triggered after XRP declines
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As of October 9, Ethereum fee burns had offset only 2.07% of this year's new issuance, resulting in a net increase of approximately 778,413$ETH and supply growth of around 0.64%. A-Jian believes these figures deal a significant blow to ETH's ultrasonic money narrative. While this doesn't mean Ethereum has simply lost its value, it does indirectly show that current network fees aren't sufficient to offset issuance through burns. Whether deflation can be avoided will depend on whether ETH can rebuild its value capture during this bull market.
{future}(ETHUSDT)
As of October 9, Ethereum fee burns had offset only 2.07% of this year's new issuance, resulting in a net increase of approximately 778,413$ETH and supply growth of around 0.64%. A-Jian believes these figures deal a significant blow to ETH's ultrasonic money narrative. While this doesn't mean Ethereum has simply lost its value, it does indirectly show that current network fees aren't sufficient to offset issuance through burns. Whether deflation can be avoided will depend on whether ETH can rebuild its value capture during this bull market.
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I think what makes crypto so addictive isn’t making money—it’s the constant feeling that the next opportunity is just around the corner: one coin is pumping, and you’re afraid of missing out; another project is launching a token, and you worry you’re too late; someone else made a fortune from an airdrop, and you start wondering if you’ve fallen behind. In the end, you’re busy every day, yet it’s hard to explain what you’re actually building up 🤡
But I think what ordinary people need most isn’t the ability to seize every opportunity. Learning to turn down most opportunities is a valuable skill. You can focus on just one trading strategy, dig deep into a single content niche, and only get involved in projects you truly understand—because the money someone else made isn’t necessarily money you missed out on.
The number of opportunities doesn’t matter. What really matters is whether you can identify the right ones, take part, and keep doing the right things consistently.
I think what makes crypto so addictive isn’t making money—it’s the constant feeling that the next opportunity is just around the corner: one coin is pumping, and you’re afraid of missing out; another project is launching a token, and you worry you’re too late; someone else made a fortune from an airdrop, and you start wondering if you’ve fallen behind. In the end, you’re busy every day, yet it’s hard to explain what you’re actually building up 🤡
But I think what ordinary people need most isn’t the ability to seize every opportunity. Learning to turn down most opportunities is a valuable skill. You can focus on just one trading strategy, dig deep into a single content niche, and only get involved in projects you truly understand—because the money someone else made isn’t necessarily money you missed out on.
The number of opportunities doesn’t matter. What really matters is whether you can identify the right ones, take part, and keep doing the right things consistently.
But I think what ordinary people need most isn’t the ability to seize every opportunity. Learning to turn down most opportunities is a valuable skill. You can focus on just one trading strategy, dig deep into a single content niche, and only get involved in projects you truly understand—because the money someone else made isn’t necessarily money you missed out on.
The number of opportunities doesn’t matter. What really matters is whether you can identify the right ones, take part, and keep doing the right things consistently.
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Bearish
Verified
A quick reminder, everyone: Coinbase will suspend trading of $BAL and $TNSR on November 9. If you hold either of these tokens, don’t ignore this, but there’s no need to panic. First, acknowledge that liquidity will inevitably be affected. The most important thing to do now is check the withdrawal timeline and supported networks. Don’t wait until the last day to transfer your assets, don’t send them to an address you don’t recognize, and don’t wait until the official delisting to take action.
{future}(TNSRUSDT)
A quick reminder, everyone: Coinbase will suspend trading of $BAL and $TNSR on November 9. If you hold either of these tokens, don’t ignore this, but there’s no need to panic. First, acknowledge that liquidity will inevitably be affected. The most important thing to do now is check the withdrawal timeline and supported networks. Don’t wait until the last day to transfer your assets, don’t send them to an address you don’t recognize, and don’t wait until the official delisting to take action.
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