阿简在路上

Fearful: In the past 7 days, Circle issued another ~11.2B USDC, redeemed ~10.2B, for a net increase of about $1B. USDC supply reached about $73.7B, with reserves of about $74B, mainly made up of U.S. Treasury bonds and deposits. Look—ETFs are exiting, yet the stablecoin supply is still expanding.

Although USDC net issuance doesn’t directly equate to buying pressure, if it isn’t entering trading, lending, or payment scenarios and only sits on exchanges and in custody accounts, the price transmission will be relatively weak. But it does represent an increase in available “on-chain” dollars within the financial system. Market trading demand, settlement demand, and on-exchange cash demand haven’t disappeared. Just remember to separate issuance volume, exchange balances, DeFi deposits, and real payments.

Avicii caused losses of about $1M for 1,685 users due to a security vulnerability. The company is currently planning full compensation. Another report, however, claims the losses were about $0.5M. But A-Jian believes the significance of this matter isn’t about the exact amount of the loss—it’s about whether compensation will be made, how it will be made, and who will pay.

For a payments product, security incidents aren’t the scary part. What’s scary is when the project doesn’t have a compensation plan and doesn’t provide a clear ledger of users’ liabilities. A well-run, resilient risk-mitigation framework must include an accident budget. And for ordinary users, when using crypto cards/neobanks like this, remember to read the compensation terms, the custodian, and withdrawal permissions carefully first.

Former White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez admitted to illegally profiting on the Kalshi prediction market by using nonpublic information obtained in advance of Trump’s teleprompter script, and agreed to pay a fine of about $172,500 and disgorge illegal proceeds. If I’m not mistaken, this should be the first instance in the history of prediction markets involving insider trading enforcement tied to top White House staff—signaling that the rulebook’s boundaries are being extended to political games.

This case shows us that the biggest risk in prediction markets has never been technology, but rather insider cheating. We can view prediction markets as leading indicators for macro events; however, the more a contract’s liquidity is concentrated in a small number of accounts—and the more those accounts have physical contact with the decision-making tier—the lower the contract’s reference value becomes#提词员付17万美元和解内幕交易案

As the U.S.-Iran war entered its sixth month and the average U.S. gas price broke $4, #特朗普称美达成委内瑞拉石油协议 secured majority control—through cooperation with private enterprises—over 17 oil fields in Venezuela, representing more than 65 billion barrels of proven reserves. In A-Jian’s view, this “largest oil deal in world history” may well be the deciding move for Trump to ease domestic inflation pressure.

65 billion barrels is one-fifth of Venezuela’s reserves. If this deal can be carried out, global oil pricing power will fully return to Washington—this is essentially the openly stated bargain of using resources to buy the next election’s votes. However, based on what I observed when passing through Venezuela, the infrastructure is no better than in Africa. From reaching the agreement to actually producing oil may still take several years, so in the short term it will have limited effect in materially suppressing oil prices.

Ordinary traders only need to understand that oil is not only energy, but also a political asset in an election year. Especially amid the current global energy turmoil, whoever controls proven reserves also has the final say on inflation. You may consider paying attention to energy stocks with deep involvement in Venezuela’s business, such as Chevron $CVX.US .

Damn! Everyone, be careful with this trending post #中国批准新增684亿美元QDII额度 . After checks by A Jian, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange updated its data on August 28. The new quota approved for 78 institutions this time is 6.84 billion USD—it's a whole order of magnitude difference. To know, the total approved quota is 183 billion USD.

That said, the FX regulator chose to release quotas during a period of market volatility—this is indeed a very strong signal, showing that regulators’ tolerance for capital outflows is increasing. With domestic asset returns heading downward, the continued issuance of QDII quotas is the only compliant channel for private capital to seek global allocation.

For ordinary traders, you can pay attention to QDII funds whose quotas are tight, such as those from Southern Fund or something from Dacheng. After the new quota is released, the premium on these funds should fall back—this is a good time to enter global assets. For experienced on-exchange traders, this quota also provides potential buy-side support for U.S. Treasuries. What to do next—A Jian doesn’t need to say more, right?

Chainlink's strategic reserve added 92K $LINK , worth about $1.1M. The total reserve net position increased to 5.67M LINK, worth approximately $66.44M. However, LINK's price didn't immediately rise today in response to this news, because this kind of replenishment doesn't automatically equal token burn.

But these verifiable reserves are still a great window for observation. Ajan believes this is more worth tracking long-term than simply announcing a buyback, because it creates a continuous assets-and-liabilities statement. This allows the market to track how much native assets the protocol is actually accumulating, and whether protocol revenue will flow back.

Ethena has proposed multiple tokenomics adjustment plans, including buying back and locking tokens from investors, reducing VC bridge financing, and moving forward with fee conversion and buyback plans. The proposals received 100% community support. $ENA also set a new intra-year high directly.

This is not just a generic market-wide altcoin rally. A-Jian believes Ethena is strengthening both supply-side metrics and value capture at the same time, avoiding the common mistake where projects only focus on one side—for example, doing buybacks but not handling unlocks, or handling unlocks but not generating token revenue rights. That’s why $ENA ’s price response can be so strong. The market has already priced in the VC bridge financing relief and buyback expectations in advance.

Next, we suggest everyone watch for: when the changes will be implemented, how revenue will be split, where the buyback funds will come from, and how the locked tokens will ultimately be handled. Until the document is finalized and implemented, don’t equate the proposal with cash flow.

HYPE spot ETF saw consecutive net inflows from August 24–27, approximately $5.7M, $7.5M, $14.7M, and $24.4M respectively. The inflow amounts increased day by day. The OI of the perpetual contract $HYPE is now about $3.66B, with 24h trading volume of $5.35B. It’s clear that after Coinbase integrated Hyperliquid perpetuals into Base last week, the distribution logic has changed.

Hyperliquid is no longer relying solely on growth from native users who are familiar with the wallets and can use cross-chain. It has started moving into the product layer of a super app. The valuation of $HYPE is also shifting from on-chain perpetual protocols toward a global multi-asset trading network. However, although ETF inflows, app distribution, and OI growth are all strong, there remains uncertainty around team supply, market making, and regulatory access for $HYPE . We need to monitor in parallel the continuity of ETF inflows, the new markets for HIP-3, protocol revenue, and team-related addresses

SOL spot ETF yesterday net inflows under different data standards were about $56.1M–$60.9M, the highest since November 2025, and also the third-largest single-day inflow since the product launched. If we only look at Bitwise’s products, SOL inflows were about $40M, significantly exceeding BTC’s $22M. On the other hand, the OI of $SOL perps has risen to $7.54B, with 24h trading volume of about $16.5B, and the funding rate is close to neutral—nothing as crowded as BTC and ETH.

The data tells us that this time SOL isn’t simply rising along with BTC. Instead, it’s expanding on multiple fronts at the same time: ETFs, performance upgrades, and institutional product listings—helping SOL start to gain independent allocation demand.

Next, we need to watch whether the SOL ETF can maintain continuity. If in the future there are still inflows of $30M+ and funding remains moderate, then the structure is relatively healthy. If the ETF cools off quickly, but OI continues to rise, we need to be careful about sentiment chasing after price gains.

On August 28 during the Asian session, #台股TAIEX受芯片股带动重返46500点 , chip stocks saw a broad rebound. As a real-time barometer of global semiconductor market conditions, the Taiwan stock market’s strength confirms that the hardware bull market hasn’t ended—again proving that as long as AI infrastructure keeps going, this deep, supply-chain-embedded market is a safe haven. Even if there are threats of increased tariffs, as long as Nvidia still needs to turn to TSMC, the floor of this market remains in place. However, excessive reliance on a single industry also makes the Taiwan stock market extremely sensitive to global liquidity; once the U.S. dollar rebounds sharply, foreign capital can pull out very quickly

Finally, as a front-line gauge for the U.S. stock market’s semiconductor sector, the performance of the Taiwan market in the Asian session often determines the tone for the U.S. market’s late-session opening. A strong showing in U.S. stocks on Friday can be expected.

Since Aug 17, $BTC has risen by about 24%; the Bull Score has climbed to 80, with 8 out of 10 indicators leaning bullish. It’s true that the rally has been fast, but it’s also true that the confirmation of a new bull market isn’t complete yet. At present, to confirm a new bull market, we still need an effective breakout above $83,000. This is the sell-pressure zone the market needs to overcome—if it can break through and hold, the trend will be more complete; if repeated attempts fail, it indicates that the previously trapped positions have not been fully digested.

I didn’t talk about a specific coin today; instead, I broke down both PCE and Nvidia first, because in my view, they respectively represent macro factors and AI—both of which are influencing risk assets like Crypto. PCE affects interest rates and determines the cost of capital; Nvidia reflects AI earnings and determines the valuation of growth assets.

If PCE is higher and Nvidia is strong, the market may swing between high interest rates and high growth;
If PCE falls and Nvidia is also strong, risk assets will feel more comfortable.

So based on the results from this round, the AI fundamentals haven’t really collapsed for the moment, but valuations are already very expensive. If this round’s Crypto rally moves together with AI and liquidity, short-term volatility will be higher. Over the past couple of days, A’Jian personally won’t easily add a heavy position.

NVIDIA $NVDAB has still submitted a completely unreasonable set of results: FY2027 Q2 revenue was $96.221 billion, up +106% year over year; data center revenue was $89.0 billion, up +117% YoY; GAAP net profit was $59.688 billion, up +126% YoY. Growth on this scale is indeed wonderful for AI. In my view, it should be analyzed like the financial report of a mature industry—looking at revenue, gross margin, accounts receivable, capital returns, and next quarter’s guidance.

For example, in Q2, net accounts receivable were $63.059 billion, up from $38.466 billion at the beginning of the period. Inventories were $31.575 billion, up from $21.403 billion at the beginning of the period. You see, when revenue grows extremely fast, working capital expands too. If you only focus on revenue and the stock price, you’ll miss the capital tied up by business expansion.

For instance, in Q2 the company returned about $26 billion to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends, and the remaining share repurchase authorization at quarter-end was about $99.0 billion. A qualified earnings report should look like this—no matter whether cash is put into R&D, acquisitions, buybacks, dividends, debt repayment, or cash hoarding, ordinary investors need the company to clearly communicate capital allocation.

Finally, strong earnings like those from a leading company such as Nvidia prove its own execution and order capabilities, but they can’t be used to characterize the entire AI industry chain. Upstream, data centers, power, cloud services, and the application layer all have very different cash conversion cycles and competitive dynamics. After all, anyone can shout slogans. And just like Nvidia’s next-quarter revenue guidance of $108.0 billion ±2%, whether that number is reliable ultimately still comes down to DYOR#英伟达营收超预期股价涨4%

Big things coming? The address associated with Sun broke has just unlocked about 5,000 stETH from Lido, worth roughly $12.3M. This is the first related unlock since July 2025. The address currently still holds about 243,000 stETH, worth about $600M. Although 5,000 tokens aren’t that large relative to the total holdings—and you can’t conclude it will dump just based on an unlock—since it’s connected to Sun, the option to sell has indeed been opened. Next, it’s worth monitoring whether it moves to a CEX, whether it converts into stablecoins, and whether it re-stakes again.

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