阿简在路上

Whoa, turns out I’ve visited so many places again this year! More than a researcher or trader, I’d rather call myself a backpacker. Which of you can name all these countries and come find A-Jian to claim a red packet? 😁

These shoes are so stylish and cool, but every time I wear knee-high socks, it makes me feel like I’m kinda gay-gay 🤧

Let’s lay out three scenarios for Friday’s nonfarm payrolls again:

Scenario one: The data comes in well above expectations—say, over 100,000—with hot wage growth too. The market won’t read that as “employment is strong”; it’ll see the Fed as having more reason to keep rates high, or even raise them again. The dollar strengthens, Treasury yields push higher, and $BTC and growth stocks come under pressure together. In this situation, the “sell the news” move can be especially brutal, because the market will be trading directly on the good news.

Scenario two: The data comes in well below expectations—say, under 30,000—with unemployment ticking up. Rate-hike bets would quickly unwind, rate-cut hopes would resurface, and risk assets could catch their breath. But A-Jian wants to remind you, folks, that there’s a hidden trap here: if the weakness is due to collapsing demand rather than a soft landing, the rebound is your chance to get out, not chase the rally. To tell the difference, watch consumer spending and initial jobless claims over the next two weeks, rather than jumping to conclusions on nonfarm payrolls night.

Scenario three: The most uncomfortable one—the data comes in right around expectations, neither strong nor weak. The market gets no new information, so it keeps grinding, with volatility shifting to other events after Friday. In terms of positioning, this means don’t load up in advance and bet on a direction based on data that’s more likely to be uneventful.

In short, the main value of nonfarm payrolls is whether it can shift December rate expectations. That will determine positioning logic for at least the next three months. So on Friday night, watch things in this order: first, changes in interest rate futures pricing; then the dollar; then Bitcoin. Reverse that order, and you’re very likely to get caught by the first fake move.

That’s all. DYOR#美国10月非农出炉：降息还有戏吗？

The signals and moves from all sorts of shady characters over the past few days since the coin theft incident show at least one thing: privacy coins are the ultimate destination for money laundering. This also explains why $ZEC /$XMR have had independent price action this cycle—the demand is just too strong 🤡

Due to Paradigm's unstaking of around $224 million and expectations of a buyback, $HYPE saw a noticeable pullback. After all, $224 million is enough to change short-term supply and demand for HYPE, given its daily trading volume of $1.2 billion. However, considering that HYPE took less than a week to rise from $78 to $88, a pullback is normal. Coupled with the fact that Paradigm, as an early investor, is unlikely to sell, this is a good entry point for a short-term position.

Morgan Stanley just downgraded Coinbase to Underweight, slashing its price target to $120 at $COINB . On that very same day, New Jersey dropped its lawsuit over Coinbase’s staking business and its $5 million fine, lifting a three-year ban. So event-driven discounting and regulatory easing both happened at once.

In A Jian’s view, the brokerage’s downgrade was most likely driven by declining trading volume and a loss of trust following the hacking incident. Even “the exchange that understands compliance best” got downgraded, which suggests the market is discounting the entire sector. For now, it’s probably best to follow the price action.

A Jian has finally figured it out: beating expectations during earnings season is now just the price of admission. In the past, a beat could buy you three days of gains; now it only earns you the right not to get dumped on immediately. Palantir beat expectations and $PLTRB fell; Apple beat expectations and $AAPLB fell too 🤡

The reason isn’t complicated. When a stock’s valuation has already priced in all the good times expected over the next two or three years, earnings reports stop proving how good it is and start looking for what might be wrong. And whether it was Google and Intel last week or Apple and Palantir today, they all did the same thing: put up a pretty set of quarterly numbers, then let their guidance do the real pricing.

So if you look at AMD tonight through that lens, A Jian thinks there could be some upside. $AMDB had already fallen nearly 11% on October 30, and it’s now roughly 30% off its all-time high, while still up 135% year to date. In other words, most of the bad news may already be priced in—which is the exact opposite of Palantir: one got crushed after reporting at a high, while the other got crushed first and reports afterward.

The key thing to watch is the data center business. If it can top 8.3 billion, the panic across the AI supply chain looks a bit overdone; if it can’t even reach 8.2 billion, that suggests making money from second-tier computing power isn’t as easy as people imagined.

That’s all. DYOR#美股财报季来袭

Here we go—today is Election Day for the U.S. midterms, and the results look fairly clear so far: prediction markets currently price Democrats’ chances of winning the House at 93% to 95%. The Senate race is less one-sided, but Democrats are still at around 68% to 76%, while the odds of a Democratic sweep of both chambers are hovering around 70%. But there’s one detail Ajian finds really interesting—and it’s where the real trading and arbitrage opportunities are tonight:

Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats only an 80% chance of winning the House. The market is more optimistic than the model by more than ten points. Savvy traders have probably realized that those ten-plus points are the difference between money and a poll. Polls ask who you plan to vote for; prediction markets ask how much money you’re willing to bet. We don’t need to worry about who’s right or wrong—we just need to know that certainty has become very expensive in the market.

So tonight, the real trading opportunity lies in that 5% to 7% chance of a surprise. If Democrats sweep, the market will probably only wobble a little, since a 70% probability is already priced in. If Republicans hold on to the House, expectations for crypto legislation will heat up instantly, and $BTC and a host of other regulation-sensitive assets will move first.

Conversely, if Democrats win even the Senate, that wouldn’t necessarily be great news for the short term. A shift from divided government to one-party control would immediately turn fiscal and regulatory uncertainty in the other direction.

Finally, Ajian has one more reality check. Many people see the election as a lifeline for the CLARITY Act, but the reality is that advancing a bill in the Senate takes 60 votes. Neither party has enough votes this session, so whoever comes out on top tonight won’t change that. The only things that could change are committee membership and the order of the agenda—and those are slow-moving factors, not tonight’s market drivers.

So Ajian’s advice to retail traders is: don’t stay up all night watching the vote count and trying to guess which way things will go. Reduce your positions to a level you can sleep with. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report is the week’s real market-moving event. #美国中期选举倒计时，美股博弈窗口已开启？

Token issuance economics have simply collapsed—there’s no defending it. Out of Pump.fun’s 24 million token launches, only 312 ever reached a market cap above $100,000, a success rate of just 0.0013% 🤡. In its current form, to put it plainly, supply is unlimited while demand is limited. That 0.0013% figure itself will also destroy the “next 100x coin” narrative.

One thing to note, though: while $PUMP is trending downward, platform revenue hasn’t fallen. A total of $30 million in rewards has already been distributed. See? The people issuing tokens are still there, but the buyers have left. The ones making money have always been the shovel sellers.

Well, 50 companies are now opposed to the ICE-OKX tokenized stock plan. Just a week ago, Jian reported the number was 22—and the original proposal covered only 62 companies in total. You see, the biggest obstacle to tokenized stocks isn’t the SEC, which we’re always criticizing; it’s the publicly listed companies themselves. The larger they are, the more concerned they’ll be that tokenized shares could bypass transfer agents, affect vote tallies, and weaken their control over the shareholder register.

They’re all pretty shrewd. The road to RWA is still a tough one. At this stage, the growth of tokenized stocks is no longer determined by “how many exchanges are doing it,” but by how many companies are willing to be tokenized.

Spot gold $XAU climbed back above $3,900 per ounce today, but that doesn’t change the fact that gold just had a very weak October, falling about 6.8% for the month. Some people may ask again why gold hasn’t attracted safe-haven inflows while risk assets like tech stocks are falling. Jian reiterates that in the current high-interest-rate environment, every macro signal other than interest rates is just noise for gold. This is a view I’ve been expressing since gold was around $4,800: gold is strong, but don’t be stubborn. In the short-term market, no asset can keep rising forever.

A little snack, ten points. Are you guys on board yet? 🤯$KORUB

There’s a reason for Monday’s market open. Data released today showed that South Korea’s exports in October rose 93.7% year over year to a record $115.28 billion. Most astonishingly, semiconductor exports surged 259.4% year over year to $56.44 billion, while computer product exports also climbed 496%. A Jian believes these figures point to at least two conclusions:

First, AI investment isn’t reflected only in the earnings reports of U.S. tech companies. It has already made its way into chips, servers, memory, and Asia’s export supply chain.
Second, although AI capital spending has investors worried about returns, at least based on current supply chain orders, demand remains very strong.

So, driven by demand for AI servers, while we shouldn’t conflate “the AI industry is still growing” with “all AI stocks are worth buying,” at least $KORUB remains solid. 10.6 is a good entry point, and there’s a strong chance we’ll see the same market movement tomorrow as we did this Monday.

The FBI has attributed the theft on October 29 to the North Korea-linked hacker group TraderTraitor, saying the funds are being transferred to $ETH and may later be laundered through DeFi and instant exchange services. Although the FBI has asked exchanges, blockchain analytics firms, and other entities to help block the relevant addresses, it’s unclear whether they’d dare ask the general to open the door 🤡#FBI确认朝鲜应对币安被盗事件负责

Well, this is interesting. Ethereum developer nicolashw today proposed a draft allowing regular externally owned accounts to permanently disable EIP-7702’s smart contract delegation capability. Whether this is too little, too late, we won’t get into. Even if the draft passes and solves the problem of wallets no longer wanting to grant smart contracts execution privileges, it still doesn’t solve the problem of private keys having already been compromised. If an attacker gets your full private key, would disabling EIP-7702 really stop ordinary transfers?

Ultimately, EIP-7702 can only address the authorization layer, not the private-key layer. Key security still depends on users proactively using alternatives such as multisig, hardware wallets, and transaction limits.

Please be advised.

Due to commercial unviability, the foundation behind Recall, an AI Agent evaluation platform, announced today that it will begin an orderly liquidation in the near term, with plans to burn approximately 358.56M$RECALL . Token holders will receive no distributions, redemptions, or cash compensation, and users must unstake any staked tokens themselves. Operations will end in the first quarter of 2027.

This news is pretty brutal for AI + Crypto. There was funding, a token, and a narrative, but the business model simply didn’t work. So this token burn and reduction in supply won’t create any value for holders either. Anyway, folks, if you hold the token, first check whether yours is staked, how long the withdrawal window is, and what the official migration process is. If you don’t hold any, just sit this one out and you’re all set.

A proposal has emerged in the Zcash community today to redirect 8% of the block subsidy toward development and legal defense, lock the funds until the third halving, and transfer 50,000$ZEC to an unusable address. The point of proposals like this is to discuss how privacy-focused public blockchains can fund long-term public goods. After all, development, audits, and legal defense all cost money. But directing block subsidies to a fund would also change how benefits are distributed among miners, holders, and ecosystem participants. I suspect it may be a long shot.

Ajian saw today that several crypto trading platforms are reexamining their security systems. These efforts include, but are not limited to, Coinbase adjusting the systems it uses to store cryptographic keys offline, Kraken monitoring industry incidents and reviewing its own defenses, and OKX proposing a real-time attack alert system. It really feels like everyone is pitching in. As Ajian said yesterday, whenever a major platform suffers a security incident, the market will reassess the entire centralized custody system. Binance can cover the lost funds, but rebuilding lost trust is something everyone has to work on together.

Traditional financial institutions have relatively mature mechanisms for sharing risk information and coordinating emergency responses. The crypto industry, however, has long relied on each platform defending itself independently, even though attack information and the flow of funds often cross platform boundaries. With AI on the rise and hacker attacks becoming increasingly rampant, establishing a real-time security alert system for the crypto industry is now an urgent priority. It is not about making any one exchange safer; it is about enabling industry participants to share information, coordinate responses, and temporarily freeze suspicious assets when an attack occurs. Even if this raises issues around privacy, false alarms, and authority to freeze assets, these are growing pains the crypto industry must go through to enter mainstream finance, especially now that traditional financial institutions are gradually moving into the crypto market.

Coinbase’s Q3 earnings were clearly much more interesting than Strategy’s: 49% of net revenue came from subscriptions and services, and annualized revenue from prediction markets exceeded $200 million. In every respect, the results show that Coinbase is no longer just an exchange that earns trading fees by riding bull and bear cycles. Subscriptions and services, stablecoins, custody, and prediction markets are becoming important ways for it to diversify its revenue. Of these, A Jian thinks prediction markets are especially worth watching, because they connect event information, user judgment, financial trading, and on-chain settlement. Their potential market extends beyond crypto-native users.

Of course, these businesses are not entirely unaffected by market conditions. Stablecoin-related revenue, for example, is still influenced by interest rates and returns on reserves. But from a long-term business perspective, the more diversified its revenue sources, the better the platform’s chances of weathering market cycles. If trading volume declines in the future while service revenue and stablecoin business continue to grow, then $COINB will have become a truly mature crypto stock. #股票财报季

Strategy reported $20.91B in digital asset gains in Q3, but core revenue was only $125.4M, down 3% year over year. This is still a very typical treasury company earnings report: the massive changes in the income statement mainly came from fair value changes in $BTC . A Jian does not recommend concluding that Strategy’s business is booming just because of the $20.91B figure. The company’s core risks remain BTC prices, financing costs, preferred stock dividends, its stock premium, and its ability to raise financing in the future.

Strategy also disclosed that its BTC Yield through October 25, 2026, was -3.7%. The increase in its BTC holdings did not translate into an increase in value per share. This drawback won’t be remedied even by the roughly $2.04B$STRC.US in buybacks or by starting daily dividend payments on November 1, because increasing the frequency of dividend payments does not change total liabilities or automatically reduce repayment pressure when BTC falls.

So, although Strategy disclosed that it currently has approximately $5.07B in dollar-denominated assets, enough to cover 3.4 years of dividend and interest obligations, that buffer will still be gradually depleted if BTC declines over the long term, its stock premium disappears, and financing costs rise.

That’s all. DYOR#Strategy旗下STRC165天来首次升至99.95美元