0x桐灿
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0x桐灿
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$BTC It’s time to play the game again.
Figure 1: In April 2019, after a strong short pullback, it continued to break through.
Figure 2: In February 2023, after a weak and complicated pullback, it continued to break through.
Figure 3: Today—does it look strong or weak?
$BTC It’s time to play the game again.
Figure 1: In April 2019, after a strong short pullback, it continued to break through.
Figure 2: In February 2023, after a weak and complicated pullback, it continued to break through.
Figure 3: Today—does it look strong or weak?
Figure 1: In April 2019, after a strong short pullback, it continued to break through.
Figure 2: In February 2023, after a weak and complicated pullback, it continued to break through.
Figure 3: Today—does it look strong or weak?
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Article
On the relationship between $BTC and the走势 of mainstream copycat coins in the early stage of the bull market, and the【best entry point】for later spot copycat coinsThe following content is the key takeaways from last night’s live stream in a small group. I’m summarizing and sharing them with text and images for everyone.
If right now you neither have any $BTC spot positions nor any positions in mainstream copycat coins, then being left out of the recent行情 is likely to make you quite anxious. But what I want to share is this: the market is only in the early stage of the bull run. A bull market is divided into spring, summer, autumn, and winter. In spring, the行情 often starts suddenly. Unless you have提前 DCA定投 and bought the dip in BTC, it’s very likely that during the first wave, you’ll still be somewhat left out.
Over the past month, the mainstream copycat coins have shown extremely strong performance. This kind of rally may tempt many retail investors who don’t have BTC positions to chase into these copycat coins. But at this stage, personally, I don’t recommend chasing breakouts in copycat coins with large positions.
On the relationship between $BTC and the走势 of mainstream copycat coins in the early stage of the bull market, and the【best entry point】for later spot copycat coins
The following content is the key takeaways from last night’s live stream in a small group. I’m summarizing and sharing them with text and images for everyone.
If right now you neither have any $BTC spot positions nor any positions in mainstream copycat coins, then being left out of the recent行情 is likely to make you quite anxious. But what I want to share is this: the market is only in the early stage of the bull run. A bull market is divided into spring, summer, autumn, and winter. In spring, the行情 often starts suddenly. Unless you have提前 DCA定投 and bought the dip in BTC, it’s very likely that during the first wave, you’ll still be somewhat left out.
Over the past month, the mainstream copycat coins have shown extremely strong performance. This kind of rally may tempt many retail investors who don’t have BTC positions to chase into these copycat coins. But at this stage, personally, I don’t recommend chasing breakouts in copycat coins with large positions.
If right now you neither have any $BTC spot positions nor any positions in mainstream copycat coins, then being left out of the recent行情 is likely to make you quite anxious. But what I want to share is this: the market is only in the early stage of the bull run. A bull market is divided into spring, summer, autumn, and winter. In spring, the行情 often starts suddenly. Unless you have提前 DCA定投 and bought the dip in BTC, it’s very likely that during the first wave, you’ll still be somewhat left out.
Over the past month, the mainstream copycat coins have shown extremely strong performance. This kind of rally may tempt many retail investors who don’t have BTC positions to chase into these copycat coins. But at this stage, personally, I don’t recommend chasing breakouts in copycat coins with large positions.
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I looked through some tokens in the AI sector, and their short-term structures are all moving pretty much the same. At the moment, the strongest in the AI sector in terms of overall structure and capital flow is still $NEAR .
$FET is one I personally like, so I’ll hold it as a core position for the long term. I just chased some of $NEAR ’s position, and will add more if it pulls back to around 2.1. First, let’s look at the target of 3.9. If it holds above and breaks through the 3.9 resistance, then it opens up a whole new scenario.
—For reference only.
I looked through some tokens in the AI sector, and their short-term structures are all moving pretty much the same. At the moment, the strongest in the AI sector in terms of overall structure and capital flow is still $NEAR .
$FET is one I personally like, so I’ll hold it as a core position for the long term. I just chased some of $NEAR ’s position, and will add more if it pulls back to around 2.1. First, let’s look at the target of 3.9. If it holds above and breaks through the 3.9 resistance, then it opens up a whole new scenario.
—For reference only.
$FET is one I personally like, so I’ll hold it as a core position for the long term. I just chased some of $NEAR ’s position, and will add more if it pulls back to around 2.1. First, let’s look at the target of 3.9. If it holds above and breaks through the 3.9 resistance, then it opens up a whole new scenario.
—For reference only.
0x桐灿
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Can $FET regain its former glory?
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$MSTR is about to hit another new high. If it breaks again, the next resistance level will be around 200.
USDT.D is about to break below the 200-day EMA on the 3-day chart. If it breaks, the next resistance is around 6%, roughly $BTC 9.7 million. That would be a smooth one-way trend—possibly even directly pushing toward the previous high near 120,000.
All of our “market predictions and judgments” actually come from “historical candlesticks.” But what people can truly learn from the “history” is only “human nature”—its weaknesses, and its brilliance.
What we can never learn is precisely the “trajectory” that we always think we can learn. Predicting the future using “historical candlesticks” is like building a “palace in the sky.” If you copy it correctly, it becomes a temple admired by everyone; if you copy it wrong, it collapses into nothing.
The most important lesson I’ve learned from history is this: follow a blurry direction, but never try to predict the future’s 【price trajectory】 using your personal ability. For example, you must not, just because my position hasn’t been fully filled, become stubborn and insist there must be another big pullback. Then you would short first and wait for the perfect moment to go all-in at the bottom of the 【golden pit】—that kind of “perfect” operation that is close to “self-delusion.”
My 50% BTC spot DCA, and the subsequent addition of a 30% MSTR spot position plus a 1x leveraged long position, will make no swing trades. The remaining 20% of “ammunition” will only be added during pullbacks. If there is no pullback, then we’ll just let it unfold naturally. The leveraged longs will only be rolled upward in line with the trend.
Just like none of us can predict whether this cycle of $BTC will start early. Likewise, we still cannot predict whether BTC this cycle will produce a smooth one-way trend that nobody could have anticipated.
—For reference.
$MSTR is about to hit another new high. If it breaks again, the next resistance level will be around 200.
USDT.D is about to break below the 200-day EMA on the 3-day chart. If it breaks, the next resistance is around 6%, roughly $BTC 9.7 million. That would be a smooth one-way trend—possibly even directly pushing toward the previous high near 120,000.
All of our “market predictions and judgments” actually come from “historical candlesticks.” But what people can truly learn from the “history” is only “human nature”—its weaknesses, and its brilliance.
What we can never learn is precisely the “trajectory” that we always think we can learn. Predicting the future using “historical candlesticks” is like building a “palace in the sky.” If you copy it correctly, it becomes a temple admired by everyone; if you copy it wrong, it collapses into nothing.
The most important lesson I’ve learned from history is this: follow a blurry direction, but never try to predict the future’s 【price trajectory】 using your personal ability. For example, you must not, just because my position hasn’t been fully filled, become stubborn and insist there must be another big pullback. Then you would short first and wait for the perfect moment to go all-in at the bottom of the 【golden pit】—that kind of “perfect” operation that is close to “self-delusion.”
My 50% BTC spot DCA, and the subsequent addition of a 30% MSTR spot position plus a 1x leveraged long position, will make no swing trades. The remaining 20% of “ammunition” will only be added during pullbacks. If there is no pullback, then we’ll just let it unfold naturally. The leveraged longs will only be rolled upward in line with the trend.
Just like none of us can predict whether this cycle of $BTC will start early. Likewise, we still cannot predict whether BTC this cycle will produce a smooth one-way trend that nobody could have anticipated.
—For reference.
USDT.D is about to break below the 200-day EMA on the 3-day chart. If it breaks, the next resistance is around 6%, roughly $BTC 9.7 million. That would be a smooth one-way trend—possibly even directly pushing toward the previous high near 120,000.
All of our “market predictions and judgments” actually come from “historical candlesticks.” But what people can truly learn from the “history” is only “human nature”—its weaknesses, and its brilliance.
What we can never learn is precisely the “trajectory” that we always think we can learn. Predicting the future using “historical candlesticks” is like building a “palace in the sky.” If you copy it correctly, it becomes a temple admired by everyone; if you copy it wrong, it collapses into nothing.
The most important lesson I’ve learned from history is this: follow a blurry direction, but never try to predict the future’s 【price trajectory】 using your personal ability. For example, you must not, just because my position hasn’t been fully filled, become stubborn and insist there must be another big pullback. Then you would short first and wait for the perfect moment to go all-in at the bottom of the 【golden pit】—that kind of “perfect” operation that is close to “self-delusion.”
My 50% BTC spot DCA, and the subsequent addition of a 30% MSTR spot position plus a 1x leveraged long position, will make no swing trades. The remaining 20% of “ammunition” will only be added during pullbacks. If there is no pullback, then we’ll just let it unfold naturally. The leveraged longs will only be rolled upward in line with the trend.
Just like none of us can predict whether this cycle of $BTC will start early. Likewise, we still cannot predict whether BTC this cycle will produce a smooth one-way trend that nobody could have anticipated.
—For reference.
0x桐灿
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The logic for adding positions and chasing to $MSTR is very simple.
On August 21, MSTR’s daily line ($BTC ) had already stabilized above the EMA200. The rise from the bottom of 58,000 to 78,000 at that time was a 35% gain, while back then the EMA200 for $MSTR still couldn’t even be touched from below. The move from 82 to 112 was a 36% gain. Normally, MSTR’s volatility should be at least 1.5 to 2 times that of BTC, yet at that time the volatility of both sides was almost identical.
During a pullback, MSTR’s volatility would naturally be amplified as well, but most likely it needed to first catch up on the volatility gap. And at that time, 112 was the price where the volatilities of the two sides were nearly in sync—so the safety risk of chasing into MSTR here was very low. Today, the volatilities of both sides have finally started to return to a normal ratio.
Since MSTR is a US stock, in the subsequent uptrend of the larger cycle it may also move more smoothly than BTC, and be easier to form the standard pattern of “higher and higher lows.” After confirming the bottom and the low point, it is more suitable for riding the trend and rolling over with lower leverage.
—The above is for reference.
On August 21, MSTR’s daily line ($BTC ) had already stabilized above the EMA200. The rise from the bottom of 58,000 to 78,000 at that time was a 35% gain, while back then the EMA200 for $MSTR still couldn’t even be touched from below. The move from 82 to 112 was a 36% gain. Normally, MSTR’s volatility should be at least 1.5 to 2 times that of BTC, yet at that time the volatility of both sides was almost identical.
During a pullback, MSTR’s volatility would naturally be amplified as well, but most likely it needed to first catch up on the volatility gap. And at that time, 112 was the price where the volatilities of the two sides were nearly in sync—so the safety risk of chasing into MSTR here was very low. Today, the volatilities of both sides have finally started to return to a normal ratio.
Since MSTR is a US stock, in the subsequent uptrend of the larger cycle it may also move more smoothly than BTC, and be easier to form the standard pattern of “higher and higher lows.” After confirming the bottom and the low point, it is more suitable for riding the trend and rolling over with lower leverage.
—The above is for reference.
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Stage 1: $BTC phase topping and oscillation phase. I tend to wait for a pullback and then look for a long position. If after a strong sideways consolidation the price continues to break out, then enter long following the breakout.
— For reference.
Stage 1: $BTC phase topping and oscillation phase. I tend to wait for a pullback and then look for a long position. If after a strong sideways consolidation the price continues to break out, then enter long following the breakout.
— For reference.
— For reference.
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$DOGE and $DASH were positioned secretly at the beginning of August; start taking profits in batches. The final target and the pressure level are both at the 0.382 position—reference only.
$DOGE and $DASH were positioned secretly at the beginning of August; start taking profits in batches. The final target and the pressure level are both at the 0.382 position—reference only.
0x桐灿
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$AAVE 📉
$DASH $DOGE 等待💹
📈
$DASH $DOGE 等待💹
📈
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About $BTC Spot Buying the Dip
Personally, I started my official DCA plan when it was around the 60,000 level. The overall strategy is to allocate 70% of the funds for DCA over a period of six months. The remaining 30% is set aside, waiting for a 【golden pit】 to appear, at which point I will make a one-time purchase.
Regarding my expectations for the 【golden pit】, personally I will look at the following three indicators in the chart aligning and resonating at the same time:
1. The Fibonacci 707—786 range
2. The candlesticks reaching the blue moving average
3. The indicator at the bottom of the chart showing a blue pit position
If, during this bear-market cycle, no golden pit appears, then this remaining 30% of funds will be used for a one-time buy when the right-side signal shows up.
In terms of the time cycle, personally I believe that $BTC still needs some time before it truly bottoms out in this bear-market cycle. The current U.S. stock market index has only just started to pull back. I am more inclined to wait until the 【S&P 500】 retraces to around the white long-term moving average, and then observe the situation of $BTC at that time.
—That’s all for reference.
About $BTC Spot Buying the Dip
Personally, I started my official DCA plan when it was around the 60,000 level. The overall strategy is to allocate 70% of the funds for DCA over a period of six months. The remaining 30% is set aside, waiting for a 【golden pit】 to appear, at which point I will make a one-time purchase.
Regarding my expectations for the 【golden pit】, personally I will look at the following three indicators in the chart aligning and resonating at the same time:
1. The Fibonacci 707—786 range
2. The candlesticks reaching the blue moving average
3. The indicator at the bottom of the chart showing a blue pit position
If, during this bear-market cycle, no golden pit appears, then this remaining 30% of funds will be used for a one-time buy when the right-side signal shows up.
In terms of the time cycle, personally I believe that $BTC still needs some time before it truly bottoms out in this bear-market cycle. The current U.S. stock market index has only just started to pull back. I am more inclined to wait until the 【S&P 500】 retraces to around the white long-term moving average, and then observe the situation of $BTC at that time.
—That’s all for reference.
Personally, I started my official DCA plan when it was around the 60,000 level. The overall strategy is to allocate 70% of the funds for DCA over a period of six months. The remaining 30% is set aside, waiting for a 【golden pit】 to appear, at which point I will make a one-time purchase.
Regarding my expectations for the 【golden pit】, personally I will look at the following three indicators in the chart aligning and resonating at the same time:
1. The Fibonacci 707—786 range
2. The candlesticks reaching the blue moving average
3. The indicator at the bottom of the chart showing a blue pit position
If, during this bear-market cycle, no golden pit appears, then this remaining 30% of funds will be used for a one-time buy when the right-side signal shows up.
In terms of the time cycle, personally I believe that $BTC still needs some time before it truly bottoms out in this bear-market cycle. The current U.S. stock market index has only just started to pull back. I am more inclined to wait until the 【S&P 500】 retraces to around the white long-term moving average, and then observe the situation of $BTC at that time.
—That’s all for reference.
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