Today’s long lower wick is the one most likely to mark a bottom for $BTC so far. But the US stock market has yet to bottom out from this phase of its correction. I personally think that will happen around the end of November. The best-case scenario is that $BTC gets ahead of US stocks and starts bottoming out and moving higher from here. The less favorable scenario is another round of choppy consolidation on the 3-day chart, followed by one last downward spike in line with US stocks, similar to March–April 2025.
In any case, this is the last darkness before dawn.
At this price, $CRCL is actually a very good buying opportunity. It has already entered the final stage of a large-scale triangle consolidation. The 500 days of volatile downward movement and shakeout—especially the fear early on, when people couldn't see the candlestick trend or know where the bottom was—have already completed a thorough shakeout. Those who started dollar-cost averaging into $CRCL early on had to endure 500 days of painful shakeout. But those who start buying $CRCL at this point may take off in just 100 days. —For reference.
The CPI and PPI data over the past couple of days were both major negatives. But the good news is that today, #US10Y and #DXY both started turning downward. —For reference.
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$BTC I can understand the bears; it really does look that way. Trading is all about people having different opinions, just like life. There’s no right or wrong, only different perspectives. So go ahead, bears—short it hard. Let’s settle this once and for all 🙏
The bulls on the major B exchange have all started trimming their positions on the monthly timeframe. And yet some people still think this is a bear-market rally. Even if this is an unconventional “mini bull market,” the whales need to make a killing first.
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I’ve bought into every altcoin I’ve posted about. My positions in $BTC and altcoins are fully loaded, too. My view hasn’t changed: I expect $BTC to reach 90,000–95,000, and strong altcoins to make a major upward move. From here, either I’ll be stopped out or I’ll reach my target. I’ll let things run their course. ——For reference.
$NEAR was shared at 2.2 on September 5. At the time, I saw it reaching around 4U, and later took profit on the entire position in the target zone. $NEAR has now broken above the long-term downtrend and is consolidating strongly again here. I’m preparing to buy back part of my position, with a short-term target around 8U. —For reference.
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$NEAR Three weeks ago, the sharing of the position at 2.2 has already fully reached the target take-profit level, and the remaining positions have all been cleared as well. For now, I’m not trying to bet on a one-time breakout of the large-scale downward trendline. Going forward, based on $BTC , if it can break through and hold, then consider entering again. —For reference.
Next, I’ll allocate most of my portfolio to the strong altcoins I’m bullish on. When BTC rises to $90,000–$95,000 in its next leg up, strong altcoins are likely to enter a major rally, gaining 50%–100%. I hope the following three charts help you understand where we are right now【$AVAX $FET $ADA 】 —For reference.
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$BTC consolidation rest time, please wait patiently.
$FET 9 May 5th, my first share was near 0.164, and it has already risen 60%. The consolidation here is going very well. Next, when $BTC attempts to break through 95,000, after $FET breaks through the blue resistance zone, it is very likely to enter a new main uptrend cycle. Personally, I will start adding to my position here. —For reference.
I’m back. Trading and desert off-roading are a lot alike. While daring to take risks, you must still follow driving discipline. Whether you’re riding the edge of a blade or using a sand-bath approach, once the vehicle loses its balance and starts to slide, you have to decisively turn the wheel fully in the direction it’s going to bring it back down—like cutting losses. This time we didn’t charge in. We just got safely down; with that, there will be countless more opportunities to charge again. But if you keep pushing against the balance, yanking the throttle harder in an attempt to go up, odds are you’ll end up tipping over—catastrophic failure. It’s not the brave who get to enjoy the world first, but the brave who also follow discipline—only then can you enjoy an even broader world.