April 17 Crypto Option Volatility Research Report

Recent predictions have been correct 3 times in a row. Use short volatility strategy to buy the bottom of spot in batches

I. Core Views:

1-Recent tweets have predicted 3 short-term market trends in a row, but I still don’t think that we ordinary players should rely too much on short-term predictions. It is more meaningful as a learning and reference

2-BTC is still very strong overall. The previous strong support point of 59,000 remains unchanged. The upper space is beyond the previous high and breaks through 80,000

3-The implied volatility of options is bearish in the short term, but after the beginning of May, the bullish sentiment has become stronger, and a large rebound is imminent

4-Monitor BTC.D and choose the right time to participate in the copycat option target, the odds will be even better (see the planet for details, long and short volatility targets)

II. Option block trading

BTC block trading information (positions are all above 300 BTC, the overall direction is bearish)

sell BTC-28JUN24-70000-C + buy BTC-28JUN24-75000-C

buy BTC-31MAY24-50000-P + sell BTC-31MAY24-80000-C

ETH bulk transaction information (positions are all around 4,000, both long and short)

sell ETH-26APR24-3100-C

buy ETH-19APR24-3250-C

Sol positions with large trading volume (more than 500, biased towards short protection)

buy SOL_USDC-17APR24-124-P

buy SOL_USDC-17APR24-122-P

III. Macro market situation

Both US stocks and US bonds have suffered a critical hit, and interest rate cuts are expected to be further delayed. It is bearish in the short term, but it is a good thing in the long run, I think.

I look at the trend of the Wind Micro-cap Index of A-shares. The momentum in the past two days is quite similar to the shadow of the DMA killing of quantitative at the beginning of this year, and the magnitude is close to the worst in early February. In fact, my personal account has always held a lot of micro-cap funds at the beginning. Later, with the change of ZC, everyone tried to avoid it.

The essence of the A-share market is ZC market. There is no good result if you go against ZC. (As shown in Figure 1) I glanced at the snowball in the hospital yesterday and found a lot of scolding. Most of them are scolding the national nine articles. But objectively speaking, I personally highly affirm the tone of the national nine articles, and the reason has been mentioned two days ago.

This is a landmark event in the change of the A-share investment ecology, and it will inevitably become a key moment in the future.