Research report on crypto option volatility on April 16

Previous predictions were correct twice in a row, and the halving month is mainly for long volatility

Reminder of high-quality projects: Recently, I have been trying to get the airdrop of the leading option Dex Synquote, and it is expected to issue coins in the near future

I. Core views:

1-Last week's tweets reminded of the long risk and the support of 59,000 below; and appropriately increase the spot position over the weekend and give up the idea of ​​bottom fishing

2-There are still 4 days before the halving. Multi-dimensional data show that the short-term downward pressure is greater, and the risk of falling should be paid more attention to

3-From the perspective of option implied volatility, BTC and ETH have larger bearish buying, and the overall option position is more inclined to short; ETH's trend is still weak.

4- Focus on the BTC.D indicator, increase the allocation of alt options positions, and see (Planet) for alt option volatility forecasts and trading strategies

II. Option block trading data

The two largest BTC block trades yesterday were (overall medium- and short-term bullish positions, with trading volumes exceeding 1,000 BTC)

buy BTC-31MAY24-69000-C

sell BTC-27DEC24-100000-C + buy BTC-27SEP24-110000-C

ETH's two large blocks yesterday were both short-term bearish strategies (positions exceeding 4,000 ETH)

sell ETH-17APR24-3250-C

sell ETH-19APR24-3200-C

Sol block volatility forecasts see Planet

III. Other alt targets

#Ton, #Kas,#Dogeunder long-term observation There are also good trading opportunities recently, which will be synchronized in the BIT Option Practice Camp and the Planet

IV. Macro Capital Market

An important news: Hong Kong officially approved BTC and ETH spot ETFs. My personal subjective judgment is that because Hong Kong stocks have little liquidity, the real value is not very meaningful, but it is still okay to show HK's attitude.

After all, HK has been too miserable in recent years

US stocks:

With the gradual fading of expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts and the escalation of the situation in the Middle East, investors have shifted to safe-haven assets. Recently, US stocks and US bonds have not had a good time.

A shares:

In the past week, it was still the house that constrained everyone's macro confidence. The symbol in the secondary market is the trend of Vanke A. From the recent trend, investors' negative emotions about houses are still there, and the new economy needs data to confirm. The previous social financing and CPI were not very good. In the next few days, we will focus on the data such as industrial added value and fixed asset investment.

In the future, we need to focus on the weak logic of macro recovery. The stability and cycle of the new round of upward will be magnified by one dimension.