Market summary and trading strategy:

Macroeconomics and news:
On the macroeconomic front, the U.S. GDP data and consumer spending index released yesterday indicate that the current U.S. economy is slowly cooling down. Of course, it is not in line with the soft landing of the U.S. economy that the Federal Reserve believes. However, the initial unemployment benefit index indicates that the job market is still strong. Although there are conflicts in the data, the risk market is still optimistic that the extent and timing of interest rate cuts next year will accelerate. The Fed will also talk about cutting interest rates as soon as possible.
To be honest, although the Federal Reserve was dovish throughout December, the risk market expectations were too optimistic. The rise in US stocks last night was driven by sentiment, but it seemed to have nothing to do with the crypto market, which is true.
The general tone for future interest rate cuts has been set. The macroeconomic aspect can no longer directly lead to negative effects on the risk market, especially the crypto market. However, there are several issues that the crypto market will face in the future, including the results of the ETF review in January and whether Ark can pass the ETF application. The Cancun upgrade in March-April and the Bitcoin production reduction in April-May seem to be positive events.
The only thing that is uncertain at the moment is whether the ETF in January will be approved. This matter has been talked about for a while. Everyone has their own opinions. There are also many bloggers on the Internet analyzing this matter. Everyone can express their opinions. Now we can only wait. As a result, the key is whether the market will rely on sentiment to speculate before the ETF is passed.
What happens after the matter is implemented, that is, whether it is passed or not, is also key. If the ETF does not pass in January, it will still take 2-3 months before the next positive Cancun upgrade. It is difficult to say whether the market will hype Cancun in advance, but judging from today's performance, many L2 ecological tokens have already been launched. It seems that some people can no longer stand the loneliness.
There are not many issues that require attention in the news, but a piece of news from Bloomberg today reminds me of a topic I talked about in the middle of this year, the stablecoin debate.
If U.S. institutional capital enters the crypto market, then the control and supervision rights of stablecoins as the main settlement tokens are very important. After all, this is the core. Who holds the right to issue currency and who is supervised is very important.
In the United States, both the Democratic Party, which treats the crypto market harshly, and the Republican Party, which is preparing to run for office and is optimistic about the crypto market, have raised a common issue - stablecoin regulation.
In other words, regardless of its attitude towards the crypto market, the United States must pay attention to the control and supervision of stablecoins. Stable currency legislation in the United States will gradually take shape, which also indicates that the overall encryption market supervision bill will not be far away. As for whether this will have an impact on ETFs, everyone has different opinions. I personally think it will have an impact. This is the core reason why I am not optimistic about the adoption of ETFs in January.
Many institutions believe that ETF approval may be in batches and not by one institution. After all, a market is fair, and whoever passes it first will occupy the market first. I guess the SEC doesn’t want to have a headache when it does, so it can only approve most of them at the same time. And with this kind of large-scale annotation, the market is completely open, and supervision is a big problem. You have already seen the recent attitude of the US government and even the Democratic Party towards cryptocurrency.
Overall, the current narrative of Bitcoin in the crypto market remains unchanged. The only variable is the issue of ETFs in January. We can only wait for an answer.
Later comes market summary and trading strategies.
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