To be honest, with such high odds right in front of me, I feel even calmer than usual. The pullback from the high in this round for $USUAL is, honestly, not uncommon in the crypto market, but what’s rare is that after it fell so much and market cap shrank to that extent, the selling pressure on the chart instead began to fade. I watched it for a few days and found that the support below was quietly getting stronger—not the fake prosperity of a big order propping it up, but a bottom structure gradually worn out by small orders. This kind of move is often more worth studying than a volume-driven surge.
We need to understand one thing: the stablecoin protocol sector was previously given a very high premium by the market, and now that the price has fallen to this level, it’s basically squeezed out most of the earlier bubble. The remaining market cap, compared with the fundamentals of the business it’s still running, actually makes the risk-reward ratio tilt in a favorable direction. I don’t overinterpret the news; I just look at volume. This kind of consolidation with shrinking volume at this level shows that there aren’t many people willing to cut their losses anymore, while funds attempting to enter are increasing. Although there’s no big move, the details don’t lie. Of course, I won’t say this is definitely the bottom right now—after all, market sentiment can sometimes become irrational beyond reason.
But according to my own judgment framework, taking a shot at a rebound here, or at the early stage of a trend reversal, offers decent odds. When we do analysis, we talk about probability and structure, not gambling with our lives. Since the chart has shown signs of stopping the decline, I’m willing to use part of my position to observe whether it can produce a right-side confirmation signal. Be patient and let the market prove it itself; that’s better than rushing to conclusions.
Observe the vastness of the mountains and seas, and discern the subtle movements of the market.
Walk with Uncle Xiong, and witness the gains and losses of heaven and earth.
#USUAL
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