Quote from Binance
A long time ago, we proposed that the trend since $69,000 is the driving structure of wave A or the three-zigzag structure WXYXXZ.
The three-tooth pattern is a very clever term. This term avoids the possibility of a right shoulder in structure and provides a definitive basis for the subsequent V-reversal trend.
In the end, I tend to choose single driving wave A
There are many differences in the structure since 15XXX.
We proposed two solutions.
The first set is a $31,000 plan with an ABC/double zigzag pattern as the top.
as the picture shows:
The reasons are that the structure is relatively complete, with multiple top divergences on the daily chart, and the MACD indicator turning around at the weekly level.
This is also the option I prefer.
The second set is the three-zigzag plan starting from 15XXX USD. I have always believed and felt that this plan is a low-probability event. With the extension of the time line since 31,000 USD, the break of various 120 lines and daily EMA is even less likely. It can only be said that there is a possibility of the existence of this plan.
After reviewing the market, why didn’t you clear your positions and take profits at the bottom of the 24XXX USD range?
1. Wrong expectations. According to my view on Bitcoin, if $31,000 is the top, the first target is 20,000, the second target is falling below 15,000, and the third target is 8,000-10,000. In the market trend at that time, various support levels were broken, and I think the probability of acceleration is quite high.
2. Structurally, my personal position reached 80% at that time, excluding the short position of about 30%. The left side of the plan is regarded as the guide wave A or wave 1 rebound, followed by wave C or wave 3. Then during the rebound of the right shoulder of the daily line, I added positions with a higher chance of certainty. At that time, I knew that if it could not go down, there would be a rebound. In my expectation, the rebound to the end of the month may be 27,000 or 28,000, or 29,000, to make the right side of the daily line. But the trend is always inferior to the market.
3. During the rebound, there were several times when I wanted to hedge but the market did not give me many opportunities. It maintained a strong upward trend. It was very strong!
To summarize the operation: I didn't make any big operational mistakes in this wave of operations. There is an old saying that goes, do your best and leave it to fate. Without the influence of news, the right shoulder of the daily line is likely to take shape. Thinking from another dimension, the subsequent new high of more than 30,000 US dollars also gave me a better cost-effectiveness and a better short-selling position.
By the way, the SEC application cycle is very long, about 200 days. The exchange only supports structures and does not currently support retail investors.
Back to the market, in the short term, the third 4-hour transaction is expected to be completed and a retracement adjustment will be made. The market has not deviated and will continue to be bullish after the subsequent retracement. (There is a small probability that the rebound after the end of the daily line will pierce through 31,000 US dollars.)
As shown below:
If the new high breaks through $31,000, the market will most likely complete wave 5 or wave Za from 15XXX.
After the end of wave Za, there will be a wave Zb retracement
After the end of wave 5, there will be a retracement adjustment of wave ABC on the daily line.
To put it simply, the price hasn’t finished rising yet, but it’s the final carnival.
Here is the last picture for you. If the market breaks 31,000 US dollars, there is only one way, and that is a big drop. There is no other direction!
Remember this sentence at the end of the medium and long term!
I am not trying to recharge your belief in short selling, but the market is like this. I mentioned a long time ago that the double sawtooth ended at $31,000 and the triple sawtooth ended with another wave of upward attack, and the bull market's basic wave 5. There is no bull market gene here at present, and it does not contradict us to short sell at the end.
The double-zigzag scenario is basically denied, so there is only one way left, which is to end the big drop at the tail end.
