Author: Lao Mao
Maybe you are already a user of an AI model, and you use AI to help you modify code, edit photos, translate, and even make videos and write songs. It is an indisputable fact that AI is a good tool, but have you ever imagined how AI will affect our lives in the next 10 years?
Old friends know that I was one of the people who went all in on Bitcoin 10 years ago. Many of my articles on the future value of Bitcoin can still be found online. Limited by the cognitive limitations of the time, there were also many mistakes, but my judgment on the future value of Bitcoin was verifiable and firm, and I benefited a lot from executing my own judgment. However, 10 years have passed, and I think the era of Bitcoin's skyrocketing price has passed. Of course, if you think that a 3-5 times increase is a skyrocketing price, I will not argue with you.
I chose to leave the e-commerce industry when Alibaba went public, so it is logical that my attitude towards Bitcoin changed when Bitcoin became an ETF. I still believe that **Bitcoin is the best means of storing value**, because it is the first time in human history that technology has allowed individuals to truly own their own wealth. However, as an investor, I will be ridiculed if I ignore the biggest change the world has seen.
I don’t care about live streaming sales, the metaverse, Web3, Big A’s lightning shows, and waves of memes, because these are just small opportunities, not big trends. What I am waiting for is a big trend that I can intervene in through investment allocation.
I firmly believe that AI is such a trend-setting opportunity, and even an opportunity for more people to participate, because I seem to see the world changed by AI. Looking forward 10 years, the following changes are almost visible.
Education and Residence
A few days ago, I suddenly had the idea of asking AI to teach me binary. In less than half an hour, AI helped me understand and learn the binary expression of simple numbers by hand. Of course, I can also use Google to learn and verify, but the difference is that the way to learn and interact on Google is far more complicated than AI. If you want to learn more in-depth content, it is almost unrealistic to rely on search engines alone. For AI, as long as you are willing to learn, it can teach you thoroughly. This immersive and interactive learning method cannot be compared with the best teachers. Thinking further, it is very interesting. If there is an AI robot to tutor my child, why should I let my child spend so much money on cram schools? Think about it again, why should I let the teachers of this community school teach the children instead of using AI trained by top teachers to help the children? What can the school do? Socialization training? Etiquette training? Physical exercise? Is there anything else? If the core knowledge transmission function is replaced by AI, the way the school exists may change, and then considerations such as school district housing are simply ancient thinking. As a result, the demand for housing is also changing more towards environmental choices, and the concept of real estate investment will also change rapidly because of AI. I have recently been considering the house I want to build in a few years, and how to better use the Tesla family bucket is one of the important considerations.
Hobbies and Interests
I have two hobbies: Go and billiards. If I were to raise a child, how would I choose between the two? 10 years ago, I would choose Go without hesitation, because Go represents a kind of logic of doing things. For a thing, how to lay out, how to accumulate advantages, how to break the situation against the trend, and how to end it perfectly. By learning Go, you can train your overall view and ability to choose, which is of considerable value. As for billiards, it is also good not to play. But now, I will definitely choose to play billiards, and I will let him choose whether to learn Go. The reason is also very simple. Go has been played by AI. The way of thinking that originally represented the logic of doing things has become difficult to understand by AI in its own way. If a way of doing things cannot obtain logical consequences, the value of learning will become lower. Billiards requires not only thinking about how to play, but also training the coordination and control ability of the body. Due to physical limitations, the day when general robots can defeat human billiard masters may be far away. Choosing to do things that AI is difficult to have an advantage in is also a way to respect the trend.
War and Peace
Even 5 years ago, I was a war worrier. I would worry about the possibility of large-scale national wars on the earth. At this moment, although the Russian-Ukrainian war has been going on for several years, I am more and more convinced that real large-scale wars will become less and less. The Russian-Ukrainian war may be the last large-scale ground force contact war between countries in human history. The reason is very simple. There is no need! Israel's BB machine attack on Hezbollah is still a traditional attack method, but the decapitation attack on the other side's leaders definitely involves AI technology. The collaboration between drones and AI makes the initiators of war unable to bear the consequences. I don't think there is anyone in the world who is willing to be a mole for life and start a war that leads to a country's counterattack. Local conflicts and games will always exist, but the development of AI technology will make the possibility of large-scale destructive ground wars become lower and lower.
Investment and Business
Investment and business under the AI trend also require more macro thinking, but when I think about a choice, I will always take the possibility of AI in the future as the premise. People who invest in Nvidia have already made their first pot of gold, which is what they deserve and the value of their thinking. Nvidia will still be very sexy for a long time in the future, but this is by no means all of AI. I have Tesla stocks, and I will only buy and not sell in the next two years. The reason is that Tesla is the most powerful company in the AI application end, but this is still not all. There are many companies that are truly related to AI. I don’t only invest in Tesla. Maybe in the field you are familiar with, there will be an AI-related company that will be very valuable in the future. There may be many such opportunities in the early stage of the entire AI trend. Business also requires imagination. If the land of your city’s main road is very cheap at a remote entrance in the suburbs, you can now store it and make a dedicated service platform for wind and solar energy storage and charging before Tesla’s driverless taxis come out. In the future, there will be hundreds or thousands of driverless taxis charging and cleaning here at all times. It feels like a good business. If there is an opportunity, I hope to invest in similar companies.
I have always been confident in my ability to make choices, and making decisions at critical moments is what I am good at.
Before, my logic for making choices was: in the long run, will this choice add points or subtract points to my life? Now, I have added a second criterion: from the development trend of AI, is this choice valuable or meaningless? This choice is not only about investment and business, but also about all aspects. With these two judgment criteria combined, I found that there are not too many things I can choose to do, and observation and thinking have always been one of the most meaningful things.