FX168 Financial News Agency (Asia Pacific) reported that on Friday (October 11), the US dollar index remained strong at 102.91, and gold rebounded to $2,644 in the short term. Israel's Minister of Economy said that Iran must be attacked, including its nuclear capabilities, and Iran warned that Tehran might change its nuclear policy if its nuclear infrastructure was attacked. U.S. consumer price index (CPI) inflation and unemployment benefit applications increased market uncertainty, and Bitcoin once fell to $58,949, but then rebounded to above $60,000.
Source: FX168
Israel's Economy Minister: We must attack Iran and its nuclear capabilities
France24 reported that Nir Barkat, Israel's Minister of Economy and Industry and a former Jerusalem mayor and member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party, declared: "We must attack Iran," saying this includes striking Tehran's nuclear capabilities.
Source: France24
He claimed that "Iran is the head of the snake" and is using its proxies Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen to "strangle Israel." He believes that Iran's goal is to build a nuclear bomb to eliminate Israel. When asked whether an Israeli attack on Iran would trigger a regional war, Barkat replied: "This is our critical moment."
He added that Israel's goal in Lebanon is to clear the "terror infrastructure" on the northern border so that displaced Israelis can return home, and Israel has no intention of occupying the area. The minister also claimed that Hezbollah plans to launch an attack like the one on October 7, 2023 on the northern border.
When asked if Israel seeks regime change in Lebanon, he said: "We are happy to see that, but this is not the goal of the war."
Speaking of the Gaza war, Barkat claimed that Hamas embedded "terror infrastructure" into Gaza's civilian infrastructure in order to escape Israel's strikes.
When asked about the number of civilian deaths in Gaza, he said: "We have no choice. Israel did not provoke this war."
Barkat said Israel's goal is not to reoccupy Gaza. Instead, he said he wants Gaza to become the new Dubai and recognize Israel as a legitimate neighbor. "We want to see Dubai next to us with a successful government structure, which is much better than a two-state solution," he claimed.
A senior adviser to Iran's supreme leader said Tehran could change its nuclear policy if Israel attacked the Islamic Republic's nuclear facilities, according to the Financial Times.
Some Israeli hawks have been pushing to target the facilities in retaliation for Iran's missile attack last week. Western officials have warned against such a move, which the adviser said "would cross regional and global red lines."
Source: Financial Times
US CPI hits Bitcoin. Will there be more turbulence after falling below 60,000?
Rising inflation and weak labor market data have led to unstable Bitcoin prices as expectations of Fed rate cuts waver.
On Thursday, the much-anticipated US CPI report and weekly unemployment claims affected Bitcoin demand. The core annual inflation rate unexpectedly rose to 3.3% in September from 3.2% in August. Rising inflation could curb bets on multiple Fed rate cuts in the fourth quarter of 2024 and could affect demand for riskier assets.
However, while inflation data was higher, labor market data was weaker than expected. Initial unemployment claims jumped from 225,000 (week ending September 27) to 258,000 (week ending October 5). The unemployment claims data contrasted sharply with the September employment report, sparking speculation that the September data could be revised.
Although the inflation data caused Bitcoin prices to fall to intraday lows, the unemployment claims data could support Bitcoin prices returning to the $60,000 level. The Fed may be inclined to cut interest rates, prioritizing labor market stability over inflation concerns.
Weak labor market conditions may slow wage growth, which may reduce disposable income and consumer spending. The downward trend in consumer spending may curb inflation, while also affecting the economy. Private consumption contributes more than 60% to the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).
Wall Street Bitcoin ETF funds continue to outflow
On Wednesday, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF market reported a net outflow of $40.6 million. Concerns that the U.S. government may sell 69,000 bitcoins affected the fund flow trend. On Thursday, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF market saw net outflows for three consecutive trading days.
According to Farside Investors, Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had a net outflow of $33.8 million, ARK 21Shares Bitcoin Spot ETF (ARKB) had a net outflow of $30.3 million, and Bitwise Bitcoin Spot ETF (BITB) reported a net outflow of $6.2 million. Excluding the iShares Bitcoin Trust Bitcoin Spot ETF (IBIT) and flows, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF market reported a net outflow of $70.3 million.
U.S. PPI, consumer confidence coming
On Friday, the U.S. PPI and Michigan Consumer Confidence Index will affect market risk sentiment. Economists expect the Producer Price Index (PPI) to weaken slightly in September, while consumer confidence is expected to improve. The rise in PPI and the improvement in consumer confidence may reduce bets on multiple Fed rate cuts in the fourth quarter of 2024, which may affect Bitcoin demand.
In addition to the U.S. economic calendar, investors should also pay attention to U.S. government-related news. There are reports that the U.S. government plans to sell 69,000 Bitcoins seized from Silk Road, which may curb Bitcoin demand due to concerns about oversupply. Recent outflows from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs may make Bitcoin more sensitive to supply risks.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
FXEmpire analyst Bob Mason said that Bitcoin is still below the 50-day EMA, but remains above the 200-day EMA, confirming a short-term bearish but long-term bullish price signal.
A break above the $60,365 resistance will support it to move towards the 50-day MA. Additionally, a break above the 50-day MA could push the $64,000 resistance towards the market.
Conversely, a break below the 200-day EMA could lead to a bearish attack towards $57,500.
With a 14-day RSI reading of 42.68, Bitcoin could drop to the $57,500 level and then move into the oversold zone.
Source: FXEmpire
Gold Technical Analysis
FXStreet analyst Haresh Menghani said that from a technical perspective, the nice rebound in gold from around $2,600 overnight and the subsequent recovery above the static support level of $2,630 favor bullish traders. In addition, the oscillator on the daily chart remains in the positive zone, indicating that the path of least resistance for gold prices is to the upside.
Therefore, there is a high chance that gold prices will see some follow-up upward momentum at the $2,657-2,658 horizontal obstacle, and on the way to the $2,670-2,672 supply zone.
This momentum could eventually push gold/dollar to a new all-time high near the $2,685-2,686 area hit in September. The $2,700 mark is closely followed, and if it is broken, it will lay the foundation for the continuation of the established multi-month upward trend.
On the other hand, the Asian session lows near the $2,630-2,628 area currently seem to protect the current downside, and falling below this area, gold prices may challenge the key support level of $2,600. A break below this support will be considered as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and pave the way for further declines.
Gold prices are likely to extend their corrective decline towards the next relevant support around the $2,560 area and then into the $2,535-2,530 area and eventually to the psychological $2,500 mark.
