✅️ Positive seasonal performance period

1️⃣#Bitcoinis entering a period of positive seasonal performance. Bitcoin price usually performs well in a bull cycle and especially in the 4th quarter of the halving year. In the halving years of 2012, 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin price increased by 9%, 59% and 171% respectively.

It is also worth noting that Bitcoin's performance so far in 2024 is similar to 2016 and 2020 through September.

✅️ Spot ETF demand has started to increase again

2️⃣ In fact, $Bitcoin demand from spot ETFs in the US has started to increase again. Spot ETFs in the US went from net sales of 5 thousand Bitcoin on September 2 to net purchases of 7 thousand Bitcoin at the end of September, the highest daily purchase since July 21. Spot ETFs helped push Bitcoin prices to new highs by buying an average of 9,000 Bitcoins per day in the first quarter of 2024. If ETF demand continues to accelerate, it could have the effect of pushing prices higher in the last quarter of 2024.

✅️ Bitcoin owner behavior mirrors the 2016 and 2020 halvings

3️⃣ Bitcoin owner behavior in 2024 mirrors the 2016 and 2020 halvings, suggesting a positive Q4 as demand continues to grow. In this bull cycle, short-term Bitcoin supply increased in early 2024 with the launch of spot ETFs (1) and reflected demand as long-term holders sold to new buyers. Then, there was a cooling period (2). If past trends continue, demand will continue to grow, leading to another increase in short-term supply (3).