Today, I also analyzed the current distribution of BTC with my friends. A total of 19,738,165 BTC have been produced, of which 12,913,695 BTC have not been moved for more than a year. Among the global spot ETF holdings, there are 985,794 BTC, of ​​which 912,369 are held by the United States. In particular, the BTC held by the United States did not increase in large quantities even when the price of BTC fell below $49,000, but continued to hold.

So we can conclude that — —

19,738,165 - 12,913,695 - 985,794 = 5,838,676 BTC

In addition, from the data of#BTClong-term holdings that we often analyze, we can see that the holdings between $64,000 and $69,000 are 2.47 million, of which ETF positions account for up to 20%.

5,838,676 - (2,471,164 - 912,369 x 20%) = 3,549,986 BTC

In addition, 13,744,027 BTC have been held for more than 155 days. Because 155 days includes the start time of the spot ETF, we use the $BTC that has not been moved for more than a year, minus the BTC that has not been moved for more than 155 days, which is equal to the BTC that has not been moved almost before the start of the spot ETF

13,744,027 - 12,913,695 = 830,332 BTC

Then use

3,549,986 - 830,332 = 2,719,654 BTC

This is not the end. There are 550,047 BTC between $69,000 and $73,000. This part is less than 155 days, but has hardly changed for more than three months. So the final data should be:

2,719,654 - 550,047 = 2,169,607 BTC

This data is almost the upper limit of BTC that can be circulated in the market. That is less than 2.2 million BTC.

Currently, the stock of exchanges is about 3 million BTC. In the past four months, there are about 90,000 BTC that have not been withdrawn. The daily turnover on the chain is about 120,000 BTC, of ​​which about 20,000 are transferred to exchanges. From this we can finally infer:

1. The upper limit of market circulation is about 2.2 million.

2. The current upper limit of selling pressure may be 90,000.

3. The biggest impact on the price is the ownership of 20,000 BTC.

So to put it simply, if the purchase volume exceeds 20,000 BTC per day, including BTC spot ETFs, then the probability of BTC price falling on that day is not high. If the BTC inventory in the exchange cannot be continuously reduced, then the probability of a black day is proportional to the exchange inventory, and the number of BTC in circulation will become less and less.