New Bitcoin buyers are giving up — and the $76,000 level tested this morning has an on-chain rationale, not just a round number.
The facts: CryptoQuant data reported on Nov. 1–2 recorded $1.115 billion in realized losses over 24 hours (the period ending Oct. 31) — more than double the $519.15 million in realized profits over the same period. The trigger: short-term holders sent 36,600+ BTC to exchanges at a loss, one of the largest weekly inflows of October. On the other hand, long-term holders have been relatively patient, and BTC’s daily RSI is at 34.7 — its lowest since June 30.
My take: this isn’t just a price drop; it’s capitulation by new buyers. This morning, BTC briefly touched $76,690 before bouncing to around $77,261, right in the zone analyst Doctor Profit discussed: $76,000 as bull-market structural support and the 50-week MA. A caveat: coins sent to exchanges aren’t necessarily all sold, and the short-term holders’ cost basis is around $75,800–$75,900 — so this zone could still break.
What I’m watching: whether there’s a daily close below $76,000 — two or three closes would confirm a breakdown and open the way to $67,000–$69,000, according to Doctor Profit — or whether BTC gets back above $82,000.
What do you think: is capitulation like this usually a sign that a bottom is near, or the start of another wave of pressure?
This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.
#Bitcoin #OnChain $BTC