$SOL On July 24 at midday, a single large bearish candle sent prices down to 73.55. After that, for a full day and a half, price stayed in a tight sideways range, trading narrowly between 73.5 and 74.3. Volume shrank dramatically. I watched those 4-hour candlesticks that nearly lined up as if they were one flat line, and I knew someone was waiting.
They were waiting for direction to be chosen.
Early this morning, it happened. The 00:00 4-hour candle saw a surge in volume and rallied to 75.03, directly breaking above the 74.50 prior high. After that, the next three candles held around 75 without any deep pullback. The rebound structure is forming.
First, look at the market signals. 73.50 is the key swing low for this leg of the decline. It tested that area twice and got bought back each time, suggesting solid support and absorption there. Now that price is back above 75, the short-term pressure is at 75.25, which is today’s high. If it breaks, we look at the 77–78 zone. If it doesn’t, it’ll keep grinding here.
Market sentiment. The funding rate is 0.006%, positive but not large. Longs have a slight edge, but nothing close to euphoria. What does this number imply? That most people are still watching from the sidelines; only a few are willing to jump in. In the early stage of a rebound, this is how it should look. If the funding rate is too low, nobody dares to trade; if it’s too high, people should be running. Right now, it’s just about right.
Whale activity. The July 24 large bearish candle corresponded to 5.26 million SOL in 4-hour trading volume—the biggest single candle of the whole period. Who’s selling? It could be stop-loss liquidation, or the main players shaking things out. The key is that after the dump, price didn’t keep collapsing. During the bottom consolidation, volume kept fading to under one million, which suggests selling pressure has been cleared. It also means the whales don’t need to spend much to push price back to 75—this is a signal of price control.
Volume-price structure. Over the past 24 hours, trading volume was $562 million USD, ranking fifth in the Top 20. But looking inside the rebound phase, the volume is decreasing. After the volume spike at 00:00, the following three 4-hour candles all have smaller volumes than the one before. There’s a volume-price divergence. Even though price is holding steady, short-term upside momentum is weakening. If there isn’t fresh volume to back it up, getting over the 75.25 level will be tough.
Candlestick details. In the recent four 4-hour candles, the upper wicks are all not long, and the lower wicks are also not short. This shows longs and shorts are locked in a stalemate at this level. Dense support sits between 74.69 and 74.80, while resistance sits between 75.00 and 75.25. Price keeps moving back and forth in the middle, waiting for a catalyst.
As for Solana—its ecosystem isn’t small. DeFi, NFTs, meme coins, everything you’d expect is there. But on-chain data hasn’t had any breakout highlights recently. Without a new narrative to support the move, the rebound is being driven purely by the funding/flow side. In this kind of market, the rally probably won’t go too far.
Nini’s plan. Current price: 75.02. For the short term, I’m looking to go long around 74.50, with a stop loss below 73.50. The initial target is 77. I won’t take a heavy position—the volume-price divergence is right there, not exactly a reassuring signal. If there’s a breakout with volume above 75.25, I’ll chase a bit, but I won’t get too greedy. If it breaks down below 74, I’ll exit immediately.
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$SOL #Layer1 #DeFi