fomc

Inflation has now run above the Fed's 2% target for 68 straight months, and annual CPI rose to 3.9% in October.

→ The fed funds rate hasn't dipped below 3.75% since November 2022, a 48-month stretch; it went back up to 4% in September
→ The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.93% after touching 5.37% in October
→ Chart: Charlie Bilello

I think the market has been grinding under high rates for 4 years, and a December hike is already priced in; the real question is what comes after. Worst case: if inflation tops 4%, December won't be the only hike and January comes into play too; I'm watching Friday's PPI.

#Economy #FOMC

Watching: $SPY $QQQ $IWM

🚨 THE MARKET MAY NOT BE DONE BLEEDING.

CPI came in hotter than expected, triggering a sell-off across markets:
BTC: -2.3%
Nasdaq 100 Futures: -1.52%
S&P 500 Futures: -0.86%
Gold: -2.4%

Meanwhile, markets are pricing in roughly an 85% probability of a 50 bps rate hike in December.

Everyone is looking at the same thing right now: bearish CPI, higher rates, and another potential sell-off in Bitcoin.

But here's what I'm watching. 👇

I don't think the market has fully priced in what's coming next.

My expectation is that Bitcoin and the broader market could experience another significant downside move before the December FOMC meeting.

Why?
Because when everyone starts positioning in the same direction, the market often finds a way to surprise them.

I also believe we need to look beyond CPI and interest rates.

There are other major political and macroeconomic factors in play:
1️⃣ US Midterm Election Results: The shift in political power could influence the administration's economic priorities and its approach to inflation.

2️⃣ Trump's Policy Direction: We've recently seen changes in Trump's tone regarding Iran, alongside potential adjustments to trade and tariff policies. These developments could influence inflation expectations and market sentiment.

3️⃣ The Fed's Next Move: The biggest question is whether inflation can come down without the Fed having to tighten monetary policy further.

My thesis:

The market could continue adjusting lower into the December FOMC meeting, with the possibility of a much bigger move around that period.

And here's something worth remembering:
Bitcoin doesn't necessarily bottom when everyone becomes bearish. It bottoms when the market has already priced in the fear and most participants have given up.

I'm not calling for an immediate recovery.

I'm watching for more downside, more volatility, and potentially one of the most important market reactions of this year.

Don't get too comfortable with one-sided market positioning.

Stay patient. Watch liquidity. Watch macro.

#BTC #CPI #FOMC #Macro

Fed Governor Waller just put a 50 bps December hike on the table, hours before CPI.

• Waller supports a 25 bps hike in December even if October inflation improves
• If core CPI comes in around 0.3% or higher, he says 50 bps should be considered
• October CPI lands at 13:30 GMT on Nov. 10

Why it matters: Fed rate expectations drive the dollar and risk appetite, and crypto often trades on shifts in those expectations.
Source: Federal Reserve Board (Governor Waller speech, Nov. 10)
Not financial advice.

💬 Is a 50 bps December hike priced into crypto yet?

#Fed #FOMC #CPI

🚨 JUST IN: TONIGHT 6:30 PM — THE NUMBER THAT DECIDES THE FED'S DECEMBER HIKE.
👀 This CPI is different.

Consensus: +0.3% headline, +0.2% core — cooler than September's +0.6%.
No annual number — last year's prices were never collected.
December hike odds near 75%.
$BTC $75,226, flat, waiting.
Hot or cool tonight — what are you expecting? #CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook #FederalReserveOctoberDecision #FOMC #Bitcoin #cryptonewstoday

Those of you still waiting for “year-end liquidity easing,” wake up. On CME FedWatch, the probability of the FOMC holding rates steady on December 9 is already 0%.

A 25 bp hike is at 87.3%, and a 50 bp hike at 12.7%. Yesterday, the odds of a hike were still around 84%. Then CPI came out and sent them through the roof. October CPI rose 0.4% month over month, versus 0.3% expected; core CPI rose 0.3%, versus 0.2% expected. Dallas Fed President Logan twisted the knife, saying it might take two more hikes before rates reach a level where they can pause and assess.

All autumn, a bunch of people in crypto have been saying “liquidity is coming back”—telling themselves exactly what they want to hear. Rates are moving in the opposite direction, stablecoin supply is shrinking, ETFs are seeing outflows, and you’re telling me this is a great place to buy the dip?

BTC is at 73458 on Binance perpetuals right now, down 1.5% over 24 hours. It looks pretty resilient, but if rate hikes turn into a long-running series, this price may not actually be cheap.

#BTC #FOMC

Myth vs data: "When the Fed cuts rates, stocks go up." Since 1989, in 2 of 7 cut cycles the S&P 500 ($SPY ) was still red a year later.

→ 1989, 1995, 1998, 2019, 2024: +9.8% to +27.9% twelve months later
→ 2001: −9.7% at 12 months, −41% into the trough
→ 2007: −17.7% at 12 months, −56% into the trough

I think what drives stocks isn't the cut — it's why the Fed is cutting. Worst case: if employment keeps breaking down, cuts become a rescue, not insurance, and the 2001–2007 pattern is back on the table; watching.

Watching: $SPY $QQQ $IWM
#FOMC #Economy #Stocks

🇺🇸FED WATCH: A December rate hike is looking increasingly likely.

Markets are now pricing in a 66.1% chance of a 25bps hike, which would push rates to 4.00%-4.25%.

Just last meeting, the Fed voted 10-2 to leave rates unchanged, with two members favoring a hike.

Unless incoming economic data shifts expectations, markets appear to be bracing for another round of tightening.
#BinanceReopensWithdrawalsForMoreAssets
#Binance98PercentReplenished
#USMidterms-WhatAreMarketsExpecting?
#fomc $BTC $XAU $XAG

FEDERAL RESERVE AND INTEREST-RATE OUTLOOK
.
The Federal Reserve remains a critical driver.
.
The latest Reuters reporting indicates traders have reduced some expectations for additional rate hikes next year following the election-related market moves. However, inflation and energy prices remain important risks.
.
The next scheduled FOMC meeting is December 8–9, 2026.
.
I would pay particular attention to inflation data and employment reports before that meeting.
.
Important: A weaker dollar does not necessarily mean the Fed will cut rates. We need confirmation from economic data.
.
#BinanceSquare #FOMC $BTC $ETH $ZEC

If you're still treating this week like any other FOMC, stop now.

That habit has cost traders millions when they FOMO into the first bounce and get stopped out by the next headline. Stacked events do not move in a straight line, and most people learn that the expensive way.

$BTC sits around $81K while the calendar throws everything at it at once. Monday and Tuesday are just the warm-up, with big company earnings keeping stocks and crypto nervous. Wednesday, October 28, brings the Fed decision plus Kevin Warsh's press conference, and markets expect rates to stay at 3.75-4.00%.

Thursday, October 29, drops US GDP and PCE inflation, the number the Fed actually cares about. Bank of Japan and ECB decisions land in the same window, then next Tuesday, November 3, US midterms add another layer of uncertainty.

This setup reminds me of those 2022 weeks when FOMC, CPI, and political noise stacked together and chopped both $BTC and $ETH for days. Alts like $SOL usually wait for Bitcoin to pick a side before they even bother moving.

Where do you think this packed week actually takes $BTC from here?
#Bitcoin #FOMC #CryptoTrading

Have you noticed that $BTC keeps running the same playbook right before every FOMC in this range?

Most traders either panic sell the pre-meeting dip or FOMO the bounce after it already started. That is how you miss the actual entry and give back weeks of gains in a single session.

Last FOMC in this range, $BTC dropped 4% the day before, tagged a local bottom, and then pumped around 16% in a few days. The October 28-29 meeting sits two days away and lines up with the same bottom timing window. A possible scenario from here is another breakdown tomorrow, one day before FOMC, flushing remaining leverage just like last time. Then the event itself acts as the bounce catalyst rather than the crash. $ETH typically follows the same $BTC script on these moves.

The mainstream treats FOMC like a binary make-or-break moment. The recent case study in this range says it has been a local bottom after the shakeout, not the start of a new downtrend.

Where do you think this one goes from here?
#Bitcoin #FOMC #CryptoTrading

everyone thinks fomc week is just a guaranteed dump on $btc, but actually the last time we traded this same range the meeting marked a local bottom and price pumped about 16% in a few days.

most people lose money here by panicking one session too early. ngl a single red day feels like the start of a rug, so they exit the low and then fomo back in after the bounce is already gone.

we're two days out from the oct 28-29 fomc, right inside the window a lot of bottom expectations were already using. looking at the previous fomc in this range, price put in a negative 4% move the day before the meeting, tagged the low, and then ran roughly 16% over the next few days.

that makes tomorrow the interesting part. a breakdown one day before the meeting wouldn't be some new disaster, it would look a lot like the flush that set the last local bottom. if $btc holds after that, $eth usually follows the same snap higher instead of leading its own story.

anyone else seeing this as the same pre-fomc dip, or do you think the range breaks for real this time?
#bitcoin #fomc #crypto

Here's what happened when FOMC last aligned with the $BTC range low.
Traders keep buying every dip around these events only to get wrecked when it dumps one more time before reversing. Not knowing when to actually enter or exit around FOMC has cost people real money in $ETH and $BTC alike.
Looking at the last FOMC in this range, price marked a local bottom and pumped about 16% within days. There was a 4% drop the day before it found support.
Currently two days before the October 28-29 meeting. The pattern points to a possible breakdown tomorrow, the day prior, flushing positions before any bounce.
The risk is getting caught in that flush. If it doesn't reverse like last time, $ETH could drag lower with $BTC and even $BNB pairs might see extra volatility. Plenty of people are focused on the meeting itself and overlooking how these events often start with a shakeout.
Where do you think this goes if that one-day-before dump hits?
#Bitcoin #FOMC #Crypto

🗓️ Is the Fed “reducing the number of rate meetings”? The trending headline is a bit misleading: What should BTC watch out for?

On October 28, Fed Chair Warsh announced at a press conference following a rate meeting that the FOMC schedule would be adjusted, effective from fall 2027.

📌 Fact check
• There will still be 8 meetings each year—no reduction
• 2027: 1 meeting will focus solely on the long-term monetary policy strategy, with no vote on the federal funds rate and no policy statement; the other 7 meetings will set rates as usual
• 2028: Expected to have 2 strategy meetings + 6 rate-setting meetings
• The Fed has not yet announced which meetings will be strategy meetings
• Outcome of the meeting that day: Rates held at 3.75%–4.00%; the vote was reportedly 10 to 2

🔍 What this means for the market
• The number of predictable “rate-vote windows” will fall from 8 to 7 (and to 6 in 2028), concentrating macro events more heavily
• The Fed can still act in emergencies between meetings, so the possibility of unplanned policy shocks will not disappear
• For assets like BTC that are sensitive to liquidity and interest rates, each rate-setting meeting will carry more information, and volatility may become more concentrated

📊 BTC is currently around 77,400 USDT, down about 0.7% over 24 hours
• Recent support: 76,300 (October 30 low)
• Resistance: 78,100 (today’s high) / the 80,000 psychological level
• BTC briefly touched around 81,970 on October 29, then declined steadily; the short-term outlook remains weak

Do you think more concentrated rate decisions will make BTC more or less volatile?

👉 Trade BTC: https://www.binance.com/zh-CN/trade/BTC_USDT

#美联储将于2027年起缩减议息会议 #美联储 #FOMC #BTC

⚠️ This is not investment advice. Please be aware of the risks.

🏦 The Fed “holds steady,” but 2 members vote to hike rates—is December really coming?

On October 28, the Fed voted 10–2 to keep the federal funds target range at 3.75%–4.00%. Dissenting voters Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack both favored another 25-basis-point rate hike. The statement said inflation “remains elevated” and the economy is “expanding at a solid pace.”

📋 Key information
• Rates are unchanged, but internal divisions are now public: two votes came down squarely on the side of “hike now”
• The next meeting is December 8–9, and will include the latest economic projections; CME FedWatch puts the probability of a rate hike by December at around 78%
• After the decision, BTC briefly surged to $81,000 before pulling back, touching a low of around $76,326 on October 30

📉 Market impact
• With risk-free rates near 4%, non-yielding assets like Bitcoin have to compete with Treasury bonds for capital
• On October 29, liquidations across the crypto market totaled around $374 million, including about $219 million in long positions
• Upcoming jobs and inflation data will determine whether rates are raised in December

🔑 Key BTC levels (currently around $77,360)
• Support: 76,300 / 75,000
• Resistance: 79,800–80,000 / 81,900

How much of a December rate hike has the market already priced in? Would you reduce your position early, or wait for the data?

👉 Trade BTC: https://www.binance.com/zh-CN/trade/BTC_USDT

#美联储利率下限决议为3点75 #FOMC #BTC #RateHike

⚠️ The above does not constitute investment advice. Please be aware of the risks.

📊 BITCOIN VS MACRO — TWO TESTS FOR THE CRYPTO MARKET

October 30, 2026 | Market Analysis
Bitcoin faces two major challenges: uncertainty over US monetary policy and renewed concerns about crypto market confidence.

🏦 THE FED FACTOR

The Federal Reserve held interest rates at 3.75–4.00% on October 28.
The decision passed 10–2, with two policymakers favoring a rate increase.
Higher Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar could continue to pressure risk assets, including BTC.

🔍 MARKET CONFIDENCE

Following the recent security incident, Binance confirmed that its investigation is ongoing and pledged to cover affected user losses through SAFU and company funds.
Restoring confidence will depend on transparent updates, asset protection and reliable market operations.

⚡ THREE SIGNALS TO WATCH

🔹 US dollar and Treasury yields
🔹 Bitcoin spot demand and ETF flows
🔹 Crypto liquidity and exchange stability
💡 THE BIGGER PICTURE

Short-term price volatility does not necessarily reflect Bitcoin's long-term fundamentals.
The next sustainable move may depend on both macro conditions and confidence in market infrastructure.

💬 What matters more for BTC now: Fed policy or market confidence?

Sources: Federal Reserve, Binance official updates, Oct 28–30.
Educational content only. Not financial advice.
#Bitcoin #BTC #FOMC #CryptoMarkets $BTC

📊 AFTER THE FOMC: WHY DIDN'T BITCOIN JUST RALLY?

The Federal Reserve held interest rates at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28.

But here's something every beginner should understand:

A Fed rate hold does NOT automatically mean Bitcoin will go up.

₿ What happened?

🔹 The Fed's decision was largely expected by markets.
🔹 BTC initially traded around $81,000 following the announcement.
🔹 Bitcoin subsequently came under pressure, with reports placing it below $80,000 on October 29.

🔍 Why does this matter?

Markets don't react only to the decision itself. They also react to expectations, future interest-rate policy, inflation, Treasury yields, and investor positioning.

📚 Three things I'm watching now:

1. BTC price action around important support and resistance zones.
2. Trading volume during upward and downward movements.
3. Whether buyers or sellers gain control after the FOMC announcement.

🧠 My lesson: Don't confuse a good headline with a guaranteed bullish market.

Sometimes the market's reaction is more important than the headline itself.

👇 Your opinion?

Did you expect Bitcoin to rally after the Fed held rates, or was the market already pricing in that decision?

#bitcoin #BTC☀️ $BTC
#FOMC

Fed, Oct. 27–28: **held rates steady**.

The federal funds target range remains at **3.75%–4.00%**.
Two dissenting votes: Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack favored a 25 bp hike—the patient camp won, but the hawks haven’t gone quiet.

Next policy meeting: **Dec. 8–9** (no meeting in November).
Market pricing has shifted toward the question of whether the Fed will move in December.

For crypto: a short-term gauge of risk appetite, not a trading signal.
Do you read this as “inflation is still hot, so some want a hike,” or “jobs and financial conditions give them room to wait”?

#FOMC

That night at the FOMC, everyone was fixated on the 10–2 vote and the two votes for a rate hike. But Warsh casually dropped something else that traders should think harder about: starting in 2027, the Fed will still hold eight meetings a year, but one will be devoted solely to long-term strategy—no vote and no statement. He expects that to become two meetings in 2028. In other words, there will be seven meetings where rates can be changed in 2027, and six in 2028.

Some accounts on X have already put up headlines like “THE FED COULD CUT ... FROM 8 TO 6,” with “CUT” in all caps. At a glance, you might think they mean rate cuts. They don’t. It’s the number of voting meetings that’s being cut, not interest rates.

What I care more about is something else. This time, Warsh explicitly offered no guidance on what comes next and made no prediction about December. The less forward guidance and the fewer votes there are, the more weight each meeting carries. Over the past two years, crypto traders have gotten into the habit of betting every six weeks that “it’ll pump after the meeting,” treating two or three data points as a pattern and using high leverage to bet on a direction. In the future, those moments will be fewer and more consequential. Get one wrong, and you could be wrong for an entire quarter.

Put simply, the Fed is reducing how often it feeds the market’s appetite for excitement. Signal callers who make a living off FOMC moves will have a few fewer traffic spikes in 2027.
#FOMC #FederalReserve

🚨 FOMC ALERT: BTC FACES A CRITICAL TEST!

The Fed is expected to HOLD rates at 3.75%–4.00%, but don’t mistake a pause for a pivot.

Inflation remains hot at 3.7%. A hawkish message could boost the dollar and Treasury yields, putting $BTC , $ETH and risk assets under pressure.

December hike fears remain alive.

HOLD ≠ DOVISH. VOLATILITY AHEAD!

Will BTC pump or dump? #FOMC #BTC