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Folks, Arthur Hayes just dropped some insights that are hard to ignore. He believes the current Bitcoin dip isn't just a correction—it's a real distress signal for the entire financial system.
Here's the picture: Nasdaq is treading water while BTC is falling. For most, that's a reason to panic, but Hayes sees logic in it. For him, Bitcoin is a "liquidity litmus test." It reacts to tightening credit conditions faster than stocks. Simply put, smart money already smells trouble while the traditional market is still asleep.
The core of his thesis is artificial intelligence. Sounds paradoxical, but the AI boom could hit white-collar workers hard. Fewer jobs → people can't pay their loans → banks lose hundreds of billions. To keep the system from collapsing, the Fed will have to fire up the printing press.
And that's where it gets interesting for us crypto folks. Sure, short-term pain is likely. Hayes doesn't rule out a drop to $60k if traditional markets finally catch up with crypto on the downside. But the endgame is almost the same: saving the economy through dollar inflation. And that's fuel for Bitcoin.
Honestly, the logic is solid. If banks start failing, the government won't let them die quietly. They'll inject liquidity, and scarce assets will moon. The only question is whether we have the nerves to weather this "shakeout." I personally lean toward holding rather than trying to catch a falling knife. The printing press story repeats too often to ignore this scenario.
What do you think—has Bitcoin already priced in the crisis, or are we in for another deep dip before the next rally?
$BTC #BTC #bitcoin

In-depth data, including all metric breakdowns and visual trend analysis, is available in the full infographic. The information below is an executive summary of the on-chain panorama.

Bitcoin remains in capitulation, with strong selling pressure and extreme fear in the market. However, accumulators, retail, and miners are acting as a geological support, even if just for a brief moment, sustaining the price between $66K and $70K.

On-chain analysis indicates that Bitcoin has not experienced a more severe correction so far due to the joint action of this group. But even with this action, it is unlikely that they will prevent the asset from reaching the $55K region, which corresponds to its Realized Price.

What is left for the investor? Protect their capital and be prepared for the subsequent accumulation phase.

PILLARS OF BITCOIN'S CURRENT GEOLOGICAL SUPPORT

ACCUMULATORS

◾ Above-average demand → 371.9K BTC (vs. 30-day SMA of 299.1K).

◾ Behavior → continuing to buy even in a capitulation scenario.

◾ Strategic Impact → provide a support base, reducing the risk of an immediate collapse.

RETAIL

◾ 30-day participation → +6,384 BTC.

◾ Behavior → small investors accumulating amidst extreme fear.

◾ Strategic Impact → reinforce distributed holding, preventing selling pressure from being fully absorbed.

MINERS

◾ MPI → -1.11 — sharp reduction in BTC sent to exchanges.

◾ Puell Multiple → 0.77 — low revenue, but a signal of accumulation.

◾ Strategic Impact → act as stabilizing agents, holding supply and preventing excess liquidity.

CONCLUSION

Despite the geological support from accumulators, retail, and miners, the trend points toward a test of $55K. Protecting capital now means ensuring strategic positioning in the next phase.

Written by GugaOnChain

$BTC
If the cycle repeats, Bitcoin doesn’t see $120K until 2028.

And what I fear the most?

This cycle is NOT DIFFERENT in terms of price action.

Let that sink in.

1️⃣ PHASE ONE: FIRST TOP → SHOCK

March 2021.
Bitcoin prints its first major top.

Momentum overheated.
Retail euphoric.
RSI stretched.

Then came the correction.

Fast forward.

December 2024.
First top of this cycle.

Again, overheated conditions.
Again, stretched RSI.
Again, sharp reset.

Same structure. Different year.

The market always cools off after vertical expansion.
That hasn’t changed.

2️⃣ PHASE TWO: SECOND TOP → DISTRIBUTION

October 2021.
Bitcoin pushes to a second top.

It looks strong.
It feels bullish.
But momentum is already weaker than the first peak.

Then the “depressing weeks of red” begin.

Slow bleed. Lower highs. Emotional exhaustion.

Now look at October 2025.

Second top again.

And what do we see?

Momentum divergence.
RSI weaker than the first peak.
Price rejection.

Once again, distribution.

History doesn’t repeat perfectly.

But it rhymes almost uncomfortably.

3️⃣ PHASE THREE: THE BORING BASE

After the 2021 second top, BTC didn’t crash instantly into a new cycle.

It compressed.

RSI reset into bear-market zones.

Only after that reset did the real macro reversal begin.

Now in 2026, we are in that same compression phase.

Weekly RSI is sitting near levels that historically mark exhaustion.
Price is hovering around prior ATH instead of collapsing.

This phase feels the worst because nothing exciting happens.

But structurally, this is where cycles rebuild.

4️⃣ THE 30-MONTH REALITY

2021 peak → 2024 ATH breakout = ~30 months.

Time was the real catalyst.

If we mirror that timeline from the October 2025 second top, expansion doesn’t happen instantly.

It stretches toward 2027–2028.

Which aligns with that projected $120K zone on the right side of the chart.

Not because of hope.

Because of historical rhythm.

Every cycle has:

• Euphoria
• Double top distribution
• Weeks of red
• Momentum reset
• Boring base
• Delayed expansion

We are currently between “weeks of red” and “base building.”

And if this cycle is not different in price behavior

Then the real move isn’t behind us.

It’s just not scheduled for tomorrow.

The uncomfortable truth?

Bitcoin may simply be doing what it has always done.

And that means patience now and expansion later.
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