CryptoQuant Quicktake

Between August 19 and 22, $215 billion was added to the altcoin market cap, a surge of more than 24% in just 3 days, pushing Total2 back above $1 trillion in market cap.
Mid and small caps in particular rose the fastest. Being the least capitalized, they remain structurally the most exposed to extreme volatility in both directions.
On Binance, which covers a wide range of altcoins, this blistering performance is especially visible.
After a period of dormancy that began in November, during which roughly 80% to 85% of altcoins traded below their 200-day moving average, a key technical level, 56% of them have now moved back above that threshold.
Today, more than half of the altcoins available on Binance are trading above their 200-DMA, signaling a regime shift.
This turnaround followed several announcements from Trump on August 19, which came amid very thin volumes and seller exhaustion.
The president notably stated that the U.S. would purchase large amounts of BTC, while also urging Congress to pass the Clarity Act, claiming his administration had ended the war on crypto once and for all.
These announcements triggered a wave of liquidity into altcoins, driving a large share of them higher.
Historically, this level of gains marks an intermediate signal of an early-stage altseason.
That said, the market has entered overbought territory that calls for a short-term breather.
There's no need to rush, though, if the momentum for altcoins remains strongly positive, more opportunities should continue to present themselves.
Written by Darkfost

Bitcoin’s Mayer-Puell Valuation Composite rose to 36.8 on August 23, marking its first exit from the undervalued zone since March after recording three major lows inside the region during 2026.
The first low appeared in February when Bitcoin traded near $64,000.
The indicator returned to the zone on June 11 at approximately $63,400 before registering its third and lowest-price test on July 2, when BTC traded near $61,400.
Bitcoin has since recovered to around $76,900, representing a gain of roughly 25% from the July 2 level.
Historically, moves into the Mayer-Puell undervalued zone have frequently coincided with major bottoming periods, although they do not identify an exact bottom or guarantee an immediate reversal.
A second historically rare signal is now approaching a potential transition.
Bitcoin’s Sharpe Ratio registered -12.8 on August 23, leaving it just 2.8 points below the -10 boundary used to define the chart’s deeply depressed “low-risk” region.
The current Sharpe Ratio began in February, with the indicator recording its two deepest readings on July 13 and August 14. According to the chart’s historical classification, this is only the fourth broad move into the low-risk region since 2012.
The previous comparable regime occurred in November 2022, coinciding with the collapse of FTX.
Earlier periods appeared around the 2015 and 2019 market lows, making the current reading historically uncommon rather than a routine fluctuation.
Together, the two indicators place Bitcoin at a rare transition point: the valuation composite has already moved out of its undervalued zone following three tests, while the Sharpe Ratio is approaching—but has not yet crossed—its -10 exit threshold.
Holding above the undervalued boundary alongside a sustained Sharpe Ratio recovery above -10 would provide stronger evidence that the improvement extends beyond a short-term price rebound.
Written by Amr Taha

Bitcoin's move from the low $60,000s to roughly $77,000 in five sessions is not just a headline number, it is a cost-basis reclaim. Through July price sat beneath the Short-Term Holder Realized Price near $67,000-$69,000, the apathy band where recent buyers stay underwater and spot conviction fades. The break above that level on August 19-20 changed the picture for the first time since May.
What stands out across the models I track is how little the Long-Term Holder Realized Price moved through the correction, holding near $49,200 even as price fell to June's low near $59,700 — a shallower LTH drawdown than prior cycles at equivalent stages, meaning no structural long-term distribution occurred.
Price now sits almost exactly on the True Market Mean Price near $76,500 and just under the Active Realized Price near $83,800, the zone that has capped or launched every major trend shift this cycle. On the short-term bands, spot has moved from below base STH-Realized Price into the plus-0.5 STD zone near $83,000, read as greed rather than euphoria; the plus-1 STD band near $98,000 stays untested.
This is the part that gets misread. Sharp reclaims after prolonged compression rarely resolve in a straight line, because the initial leg is driven by leverage unwind and short covering, not patient spot accumulation. That produces what we see now: outsized volatility, fast profit-taking from short-term buyers of the range, and sentiment swinging from disbelief toward euphoria within days.
None of this confirms a completed bear-to-bull transition alone. A durable shift needs the STH-Realized Price reclaim to hold as support on retest, and the one-year Holder Realized Price near $104,800 to eventually come back into range — both still open. Higher-probability read: Bitcoin has exited capitulation into a volatile transition phase, favoring continuation but not a smooth path.
Written by Crazzyblockk

Japan is entering a new phase of stablecoin adoption. The key question is no longer whether companies can run a proof of concept, but whether they can turn it into a sustainable business.
A successful PoC only proves that the technology works. Real adoption requires companies to answer harder questions: What problem does it solve? How does it connect with existing customers and operations? Who owns the project after the pilot? And how does it create long-term value?
XWIN Group has supported the introduction of JPYC at Matsuya Ginza. Through this experience, we have seen that stablecoins should not simply be viewed as another payment method. When connected with stores, customer networks, data, loyalty programs, inbound tourism and digital services, they can become part of a broader business infrastructure.
This is where “Digital Capital Management” becomes important. AI, data, blockchain and digital assets should increasingly be treated as corporate resources—not isolated technologies.
Four factors will determine whether stablecoin projects move beyond experimentation:
1. A clear real-world use case
2. Integration with existing customers, operations and systems
3. Management that understands digital assets as strategic capital
4. Internal talent capable of operating and expanding the initiative
Technology alone will not drive stablecoin adoption.
The companies that succeed will be those that develop both their business models and their people.
Japan’s next challenge is to move from “technical demonstration” to “management implementation.”
Written by XWIN Japan

Japan may be approaching a major turning point in finance. One key theme is “on-chain finance.”
As Chair of the DeFi Committee at the Blockchain Collaborative Consortium (BCCC), I have advocated for the adoption of DeFi and on-chain finance, as well as a regulatory framework that enables responsible innovation.
On-chain finance means issuing, managing, transferring and settling financial assets—such as money, deposits, securities and bonds—on blockchain networks. Its real potential, however, is not simply tokenization. It is the ability to connect commerce and finance through programmable infrastructure.
For example, once delivery and inspection are confirmed, a smart contract could automatically trigger stablecoin payment and update accounting records. Commerce, payments and accounting could become one continuous digital process.
For this to scale in Japan, five conditions are critical:
1. Move from regulations that allow experiments to rules that enable commercialization.
2. Treat stablecoins as programmable money, not merely digital payment instruments.
3. Connect banks and DeFi rather than viewing them as competitors.
4. Make blockchain invisible to users through simple, familiar UX.
5. Measure success by commercialization, transaction volume and cost reduction—not the number of PoCs.
Japan already has financial institutions, major corporate markets, advanced payment infrastructure and an evolving regulatory foundation.
The next challenge is execution.
The future of finance is not simply digital. It is programmable. Japan’s opportunity is to connect finance, industry, data and AI on-chain—and turn experimentation into real economic infrastructure.
Written by XWIN Japan

What Is NUPL?
NUPL summarizes the unrealized profit and loss of every investor in the market into a single score. Above zero means the market is broadly in profit; below zero means it's underwater. High NUPL points to excessive optimism, while low NUPL signals fear and capitulation. I don't read this metric in isolation — I read it alongside its own 365-day moving average (SMA365). Because the real signal lies in whether NUPL crosses above or below that average.
Current Picture
Bitcoin has rallied roughly 26% over the last 4 days, pushing NUPL from 0.16 to 0.32. With this move, the metric has generated a trend reversal signal. NUPL SMA365 currently sits at 0.31, meaning NUPL has crossed above its long-term average for the first time since October 10, 2025.
If price can sustain above this level, the current upward momentum can continue.
Written by burakkesmeci

Observation. ETH closed at $2,517 on August 21 after three sessions lifted price roughly 31% from the $1,870–$1,916 band it had held for weeks. The move did not originate in spot demand. Aggregate short liquidations averaged $131.0M over the last seven days, up about 1,514% week-over-week and 437% against the 90-day baseline, while long liquidations remain 40% below their quarterly average.
Context. Network economics reactivated alongside the move rather than ahead of it. Base fees rose 189% WoW, fees burnt in USD 251%, and total network fees 138% — reversing the compression that defined the prior two months. On derivatives, Binance funding rates now average 0.01, up 25% WoW and 95% versus the quarterly baseline, the first sustained positive tilt in months. Taker buy volume climbed 154% to $5.49B against $5.17B on the sell side.
Comparison. One metric moves the other way. Average deposit size (7-day mean inflow) fell to 16.1 ETH, down 40% against the 90-day baseline, even as total inflow rose 101% WoW — supply arriving in more, smaller transfers rather than large blocks. Netflow itself is unstable (+51.2k on August 19, -49.7k on August 20), which suggests venue rebalancing rather than one-directional pressure. The Coinbase Premium sits at -0.02, its least negative reading in weeks but not yet a demand confirmation.
What this may set up. A liquidation-driven repricing with reactivated fee demand, positive Binance funding, and fragmented deposit flow describes a market where positioning led price and spot participation is only beginning to respond. Historically, this configuration has preceded either continuation once premiums turn positive, or a drift back toward the prior range if funding cools before spot follows through.
Written by CryptoOnchain

Bitcoin’s market structure has changed dramatically in just a few days.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said on Aug. 21 that rallies like this during bear markets often signal that the bottom is in, adding that the “bear phase is pretty much done.”
The data increasingly supports his view—but it is too early to call the bottom confirmed.
BTC broke out of a six-week $62K–$67K range and surged to around $79.4K. More importantly, the move was accompanied by improving spot and perpetual demand, strong U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, and the recovery of key on-chain cost-basis levels.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $1.92 billion in net inflows over five trading days, suggesting that the rally was not driven solely by derivatives.
On-chain data also improved sharply. Glassnode’s Aug. 19 levels placed the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis near $68.5K and the True Market Mean near $75.8K. BTC subsequently reclaimed both.
However, caution is still warranted. The breakout triggered roughly $3 billion in short liquidations, meaning a major short squeeze amplified the move. Bitcoin also rallied from around $60K to $82K earlier this year before that move ultimately proved to be a bear-market bounce.
The key test is therefore what happens next.
If BTC can hold around $75K–$76K, break $80K and then clear the previous $82K–$83K resistance zone while ETF and spot demand remain strong, the case for a genuine regime change becomes much stronger.
The important point is not simply that Ki Young Ju turned bullish. It is that the underlying data changed enough for a previously bearish analyst to change his view.
For now, the most accurate conclusion is: the probability that the ~$60K area marked the cycle bottom has risen significantly—but confirmation still requires sustained spot demand and price strength above key cost-basis levels.
Written by XWIN Japan

As Bitcoin gains momentum toward the $79,000 level, a predominantly sell-heavy picture remains visible on the Binance spot side.
Even though the price surged by squeezing short positions in the derivatives market, there is a noticeable absence of buying pressure in the Binance spot market. On the contrary, Binance spot market participants have chosen to stay on the sell side rather than joining the upward movement.
This divergence brings a critical scenario to light: rather than an organic trend backed by spot demand, this move might merely be a sharp rally triggered by liquidating short positions (a short squeeze). Once the short squeeze mechanism exhausts itself, if strong spot buying fails to step in, the price is highly likely to retrace back toward its starting level. Indeed, the spot delta dropping to -$11.6 billion clearly confirms this structure. Typically, during periods when price tests critical threshold levels, we observe the delta deepening significantly in negative territory.
From a market dynamics perspective, the forces driving an instrument up or down follow specific fundamental principles. For us to conclude that Bitcoin has officially exited the bear market and that the rally is healthy, we need to observe clear, net spot buying. Rallies occurring without spot support are bound to remain temporary bear market reactions and short squeeze moves.
While this structure opens the door to high volatility and exciting price action in the coming months, the risk of a sharp reversal remains notably high once the rally's fuel—derivatives liquidations—runs out.
Written by BorisD

Tether recorded $5 billion in gross USDT mint-and-burn activity on August 21, minting $3 billion USDT on Tron while burning $2 billion on Ethereum.
The Tron mint was three times the size of each of the previous two mints on the network, with Tether minting $1 billion on August 10 and another $1 billion on July 9.
The activity coincided with a major USDT movement into Binance. The exchange recorded approximately $928 million in net USDT inflows through Tron on August 21, with Bitcoin trading near $76,600.
The previous comparable Binance inflow occurred on August 10, when Tron-based USDT net inflows reached roughly $897 million while Bitcoin traded near $64,600.
The latest inflow was therefore around 3.5% larger, while Bitcoin was approximately 18.6% higher.
Ethereum wallet activity also accelerated sharply.
Wallets recording daily USDT balance changes above $100 million reached $5.14 billion, while the $10M–$100M group recorded $1.24 billion — both marking their highest activity since July 7, when Bitcoin traded above $63,000.
On July 7, the two groups recorded $11.5 billion and $788 million, respectively.
Taken together, the data shows a notable concentration of USDT activity across Tether Treasury operations, Tron-based exchange flows, and large Ethereum wallets as Bitcoin trades near its latest highs.
The simultaneous movements do not prove that the newly minted USDT was directly transferred to Binance or that the Ethereum burn was directly reissued on Tron.
The key signal is the scale and synchronization of activity
Written by Amr Taha

Yesterday, $BTC managed to close the day at ~$78 300, posting a gain of over 7% on the session alone.
Over the past 3 days, Bitcoin has posted a gain of over 23%, with $275B in market cap added over the period.
This rally is logically accompanied by profit-taking, reflected in rising BTC inflows to exchanges. Around 53000 BTC were sent to platforms, including 17 800 BTC to Binance alone, the exchange with the deepest liquidity.
What's interesting to note is that the entirety of these inflows to Binance came from short term holders, and more specifically from investors who had accumulated their BTC less than a day earlier. Rather than holding their positions, these very short term players sent around 17 800 BTC to Binance.
These are therefore purely speculative, non structural movements: cohorts classified as Long Term Holders (6m+) sent no BTC to the platform whatsoever.
Even though this is pure speculation, it remains the largest inflow into Binance since February 2026, a month marked by a genuine capitulation episode from these same investors.
It's precisely these brief, spontaneous movements that are fueling the volatility now making a strong comeback across the crypto market.
Written by Darkfost

The Realized Price UTXO Age Bands chart provides additional context for the recent breakout by showing the average acquisition prices of different groups of Bitcoin holders.
The most relevant development is that BTC's surge toward $79K has pushed spot price above the realized-price levels of the shorter-term 1-3 month and 3-6 month cohorts, which sit around $64K and $74K, respectively. This means these groups have broadly moved back into unrealized profit, reducing some of the pressure associated with underwater recent buyers.
At the same time, several older cohorts remain positioned considerably above the current market price. The 18-month to 2-year realized price is around $87K, while the 6-12 month and 12-18 month bands are much higher near $95K and $105K. These levels could become increasingly relevant if the recovery continues, as BTC would begin approaching the cost bases of holders who remain underwater.
Therefore, the on-chain structure has improved alongside the technical breakout, but the recovery is not yet complete. Holding above the roughly $74K cost basis of the 3-6 month cohort would be particularly constructive, while losing it could indicate that the latest surge has moved ahead of underlying holder support.
Written by ShayanMarkets

A bullish signal has appeared in the $BTC Inter-exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) indicator.
The rally is resuming after ending the correction phase that has continued since July.
The bullish signal from the IFP indicator signifies that the inflow of $BTC into derivatives exchanges is increasing.
This indicates that upward pressure from derivatives exchanges is rising, meaning that leveraged investment is increasing in earnest again.
Upward pressure driven by leverage is starting again.
Written by CW8900

Bitcoin sparked a massive liquidation storm across futures markets with its relentless rally in August 2026. According to Binance cumulative liquidation data, the market just witnessed its largest short position wipeout since October 2025.
Back in October 2025, a historic short squeeze pushed Bitcoin above $120,000. Ever since that move, long liquidations had been dominating the charts. However, August 2026's aggressive upward surge left short sellers with virtually no time to escape.
How the Market Dynamics Shifted
Long liquidations, which held the lead for months, have now fallen into second place following this violent rally:
- Cumulative Short Liquidations: Climbed to $7.739 Billion, taking the lead.
- Cumulative Long Liquidations: Trailed behind at $7.582 Billion.
This flippening highlights the sheer velocity of the price jump and demonstrates how aggressively trapped short positions were forced out of the game.
What Is the Market's Next Move?
With short liquidity cleared out, a critical question emerges for derivatives traders: Will the tide turn toward liquidating overly leveraged long positions next?
Given market makers' tendency to seek out dense liquidity pockets, exercising caution with late-chasing long positions becomes essential as FOMO peaks.
Written by BorisD

• Heikin-Ashi Japanese candlesticks on the weekly timeframe, Apparent Demand Growth, Fourth Halving AVWAP (orange line), latest ATH AVWAP (white line), and SMA50 (blue line).
• Dan Valcu, CFTe: "Any Heikin-Ashi chart filters out price noise; as a result, trends, consolidations, and reversals are more visible and clearer to the naked eye."
Written by Facundo Fama

For the first time since the October 2025 ATH, both 30-day spot and futures demand growth have flipped positive. The signal is still modest, but if it persists for roughly a month, it could mark the end of the bear market and the beginning of a new bull cycle.
Spot demand has recovered sharply from around -206K BTC on July 23 toward and above zero. Historically, a recovery through this level has produced an ~18% median return over 60 days, with a 78% win rate.
Whales have also returned to accumulation, adding roughly 43K BTC (~$2.75B) over the past 60 days after months of net selling.
ETF flows have strengthened, with August MTD inflows around $2.1B and several days recording $500–600M+ in net inflows. Meanwhile, expanding OI and the strongest short squeeze since November 2024 helped accelerate BTC from the $63K–$65K range toward $70K and later $75K–$77K.
The Bull Score has also moved back into bullish territory (≥60), while a record-sized profit-side UTXO movement suggests trapped holders are finally taking profits.
The key difference from previous failed bounces: this move is showing genuine spot participation, not just leverage.
Structure is constructive, but confirmation still requires sustained demand above zero and stronger volume follow-through.
The dual-demand signal is the one to watch.
Written by theophiluspep

Over the span of three days, Bitcoin posted a performance of more than 20%, driven by a sudden return of demand, both in spot and futures.
During this period, BTC open interest jumped by $2.5B, including $1.5B on Binance alone, which now accounts for 37% of total market open interest.
On the platform, the return of investors to BTC futures accelerated sharply within just a few hours.
The 7-hour moving average (7 hma) of net taker volume on Binance reached its highest level since 2024.
As BTC managed to break through the $65,000 resistance, more than $246 million in net buying pressure flooded into Binance within a matter of hours, the strongest and most spontaneous surge of buying pressure on Binance futures seen in two years.
Between the return of spot demand, buying pressure on futures, and the cascade of short liquidations caught wrong-footed, this combination quickly pushed Bitcoin higher.
Written by Darkfost

XRP rallied nearly 40% in roughly two days, rising from around $0.997 on August 19 to above $1.39 on August 21, while Binance open interest climbed to a new high of approximately $263 million.
The expansion in derivatives exposure has been building for several weeks.
Binance XRP open interest increased from roughly $181 million on August 3 to $263 million on August 21, a gain of about 45%.
However, taker-flow data shows a notable divergence beneath the price rally.
Binance XRP Perpetual CVD continued falling to approximately -$514.4 million, indicating that aggressive sell-side executions remained dominant even as both XRP’s price and open interest moved sharply higher.
Rising open interest alongside declining perpetual CVD is consistent with new short-side positioning being added into the rally.
Spot activity showed a different trend.
All-CEX Estimated Spot CVD improved from roughly -$250 million to -$194.8 million, a positive shift of about $55 million.
While spot CVD remains negative, the recovery contrasts with the continued deterioration in Binance perpetual CVD.
The divergence suggests that a growing portion of derivatives traders is still leaning against the rally even as price momentum remains strong, leaving XRP’s futures market increasingly sensitive to further price moves in either direction.
Written by Amr Taha

Bitcoin has broken above $77,000, a sharp move from the $64,000 level just days earlier. Yet on the spot Volume Bubble Map, the color still reads green, or "Cooling." Price is surging, but volume growth isn't keeping pace.
This indicator colors bubbles by the rate of change in trading volume: a rapid increase turns red (Heating, then Overheating), while a decline shows green (Cooling). Every major cycle top on this chart, late 2017, mid-2021, and the ~$100K high in late 2025, was marked by dense red clusters. This time is different. Even as price pushes to $77,000, the bubbles have stayed green.
Historically, red clusters coincided with late entrants piling in and volume exploding, the classic signature of peak FOMO. Volume staying cool now suggests most participants haven't committed with conviction yet. The market is still hesitant, and real buying pressure may still be sitting on the sidelines. If that reading holds, any pullback from here is more likely to be shallow than a hard reversal, with room for one or two more legs up before a real top forms. Without an overheating signal, this isn't the top yet.
The counter-case deserves airtime too. Volume failing to confirm could mean this rally leans more on derivatives short covering and macro liquidity, Treasury buybacks, ETF inflows, than broad spot demand. If volume never shows up, the move risks stalling without confirmation and slipping back into range. Cooling phases haven't always preceded rallies; 2018 and 2023 both saw extended cooling periods that led into prolonged chop instead.
Still, the absence of an overheating signal tilts the balance toward more room to run. Until the bubbles turn red, this bounce isn't finished.
This reflects my own views. Not financial advice.
Written by Rich_dady

This is the first time the Bitcoin Bull Score has moved back into bullish territory (≥60) since October 2025.
Even in May, when BTC broke above $82,000, the indicator failed to move back into bull territory.
This metric relies on several non-outdated indicators to confirm the regime the market currently finds itself in.
Currently, 6 out of 10 indicators have turned green again, including demand growth, stablecoin liquidity, and the trader realized price.
During bull phases, the Bull Score Index stays above this level of 60 most of the time before dropping into bear territory.
If this indicator manages to hold at this level and keeps climbing, a new bull cycle could well be starting.
Written by Darkfost