CryptoQuant Quicktake

When normalizing the path from the Halving to the cycle bottom, the 2024 cycle remains ahead of the bottoming windows seen in 2016 and 2020. What matters here is not just timing, but market psychology: the market is exhausted, yet it has not reached full capitulation.
For now, the cycle data only suggests that downside risk remains. It is still too early to conclude that a bottom has formed.
Don’t confuse “the price has fallen significantly” with “the market has bottomed.”
Written by Rei Researcher

Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder Realized Cap fell to $249.7 billion on July 31, marking its lowest reading since October 7, 2024, when the metric stood at $244.4 billion.
The latest reading is the first move below $250 billion in nearly 22 months and leaves the metric just $5.3 billion above its October 2024 low.
The decline is also substantial compared with late-2025 levels, when Short-Term Holder Realized Cap exceeded $600 billion.
Since then, the metric has contracted by more than $350 billion, reflecting a major reduction in the realized capital base associated with recently active Bitcoin holders.
The divergence is notable because Bitcoin remained near $64,700, meaning the short-term holder capital structure has returned close to October 2024 levels while the market price is still above $64,000.
The downtrend developed throughout 2026 and accelerated in recent months, turning the July 31 reading into the continuation of a broader structural contraction .
Short-Term Holder Realized Cap measures the aggregate cost basis of coins currently classified within the short-term holder cohort.
Its decline does not represent an equivalent amount of capital leaving Bitcoin, but it does indicate a significant reset in the cost-basis structure of recently active supply.
Written by Amr Taha

XRP Withdrawal Transaction Share Hits Highest Since February 2021 as Binance Reaches 55.6%
XRP withdrawal transactions gained their strongest dominance in more than five years on July 31, as the seven-day share on Binance climbed to 55.6%, its highest level since February 2021.
The same shift appeared across the broader centralized exchange market, where withdrawal transactions reached 54%, also marking their highest share since February 2021. The synchronized move indicates that the change was not limited to a single trading venue.
At the same time, XRP deposit transaction shares fell to multi-year lows.
Binance’s deposit share declined to 44.3%, while the aggregate figure across all centralized exchanges dropped to 45.95%—the lowest readings for both metrics since February 2021.
This created an 11.3-percentage-point gap between withdrawal and deposit transactions on Binance, compared with approximately 8.05 percentage points across all exchanges.
Binance’s withdrawal share also stood 1.6 percentage points above the market-wide average, while its deposit share was roughly 1.65 percentage points lower.
The shift accelerated sharply during the final weeks of July rather than developing gradually, with withdrawal shares rising as deposit shares moved in the opposite direction.
The divergence is particularly notable because XRP was trading near $1.08, well below its previous price highs, suggesting that exchange transaction behavior was changing despite continued price weakness.
However, the metric tracks the number of deposit and withdrawal transactions, not the volume of XRP transferred or confirmed net exchange flows.
It therefore signals a major change in transaction structure but does not, by itself, prove accumulation, reserve declines, or net capital movement away from exchanges.
Written by Amr Taha

Ethereum open interest across all exchanges stood at $11.83 billion as of July 31, 2026, with price near $1,906, marking a modest recovery from the sub-$10 billion lows hit earlier in the summer even as the metric remains well below its 2025 peak.
Open interest tracked price closely through 2025, climbing from roughly $17-20 billion in early 2025 toward a peak above $30 billion in August-September as ETH pushed toward $4,500. Both metrics then declined together into year-end, before a sharper break lower in early 2026 pulled open interest down to the $10-11 billion range alongside a price drop from the $3,000s to the $2,000 area. A partial rebuild followed through spring, then another leg down in June pushed open interest back toward cycle lows before the current stabilization.
This pattern of leveraged positioning contracting roughly in step with price suggests deleveraging rather than a divergence-driven setup. The current $11.83 billion level sits closer to the depressed readings seen in February and April 2025 than to the elevated positioning of last summer, indicating that speculative leverage in ETH derivatives markets remains comparatively light relative to the size of the market earlier this cycle.
The honest read is that lighter open interest cuts both ways. It reduces the risk of a leverage-driven cascade in either direction, but it also signals reduced conviction and thinner liquidity, meaning price moves from here may be more sensitive to spot flows than to derivatives-driven momentum until positioning rebuilds meaningfully.
Ethereum's open interest stabilizing near $11.8 billion after months of contraction points to a derivatives market that has largely reset, leaving room for renewed leverage to build in either direction depending on how price behaves from current levels.
This reflects my own views. Not financial advice.
Written by Rich_dady

The FOMC left interest rates unchanged as expected, but the Fed’s tone was interpreted as more hawkish than markets had anticipated. Bitcoin volatility increased after the decision, yet derivatives and on-chain data show that traders had entered the meeting without a strong directional conviction.
Four indicators help explain the setup.
First, Bitcoin’s taker buy-sell ratio remained near 1.0, showing that aggressive buyers and sellers were almost evenly balanced. The market was waiting for a catalyst rather than positioning decisively.
Second, perpetual-futures activity showed only a mild short bias. Bears repeatedly failed to push Bitcoin below the $62,000–$63,000 support zone, indicating that selling pressure lacked conviction.
Third, funding rates remained positive. This suggested that underlying demand for long positions had not disappeared, although persistent positive funding also left crowded longs vulnerable to sudden liquidations.
Finally, exchange inflows stayed relatively low. There was no clear sign that holders were rushing to move Bitcoin onto exchanges for immediate selling.
Together, these indicators showed a market coiled ahead of the Fed: cautious, balanced, and waiting. The post-FOMC volatility did not emerge from strong bearish positioning, but from a neutral market rapidly repricing a more hawkish policy message.
Written by XWIN Japan

ETH has traded between 1,840 and 1,953 over the past two weeks, currently sitting near $1,908. The staking rate has crept steadily from 33.44% to 33.90%, suggesting continued gradual asset lock-up.
Over the same window, aggregate exchange netflow (netflow_all) has been negative on most days, while the Coinbase premium index has slipped further to -0.12 - a combination that may point to relatively softer US spot demand versus the broader market.
A more notable shift appears in the 90-day structural data: Binance - still the deepest and most closely watched venue for ETH stablecoin settlement - saw its stablecoin netflow (stable_netflow_binance_netflow_total) fall 518% week-over-week, 347% versus the monthly baseline, and 728% versus the quarterly baseline, among the largest structural moves across the 148 metrics tracked. Because Binance’s order book depth typically makes it the first place large flow shifts become visible, this reversal offers an early read on where stablecoin liquidity may be repositioning.
At the same time, weekly fees_burnt_total_usd rose roughly 48%, though it remains about 54% below its 90-day average, and large-holder exchange activity (inflow/outflow_top10) is trending lower across all three windows - weekly, monthly, and quarterly.
Taken together - thinning stablecoin liquidity on Binance, a weaker Coinbase premium, and declining large-holder exchange participation - these conditions resemble prior phases that historically preceded price consolidation ahead of a directional resolution. This combination doesn’t guarantee a bullish or bearish outcome, but it may mark a transitional zone worth monitoring as the next phase develops.
Written by CryptoOnchain

XRP’s whale-versus-retail spread on Binance climbed to 45% on July 30, surpassing the 35.9% aggregate reading across all centralized exchanges for the first time since June 7.
The crossover created a 9.1-percentage-point premium for Binance over the broader CEX benchmark.
This marks a notable shift in the relative concentration of whale activity compared with retail participation on the platform.
Importantly, the indicator is calculated using a seven-day moving average, meaning the crossover reflects a change that developed across several trading sessions rather than a single-day fluctuation.
The metric does not independently confirm whether large participants are buying or selling.
However, the renewed divergence shows that XRP’s whale-retail structure on Binance has recently strengthened relative to the wider centralized-exchange market.
Written by Amr Taha

Bitcoin's MVRV ratio stood at 1.207 as of July 27, 2026, with price near $63,701, placing the metric just above the historically undervalued band below 1.0 and far removed from the overheated zone above 3.7 that has marked prior cycle tops.
The ratio peaked above 3.7-4.0 near the early 2021 top, then again approached similar levels near the 2025 cycle high before rolling over sharply. Over the past several months MVRV has compressed from the high-2 range down toward 1.2, a decline steep enough to bring it within range of levels that historically preceded the tail end of prior drawdowns in 2019, 2022, and briefly in late 2022.
This positioning suggests the market has priced out much of the excess built up during the 2025 rally, with realized value now sitting much closer to market value than at any point since the 2022 bear market. Historically, readings in the 1.0-1.3 range have coincided with periods where aggregate holder profit has thinned considerably, often setting up either a basing phase or, if the decline continues, a push into the undervalued sub-1.0 zone last seen in 2022.
The honest risk is that momentum has been persistently negative for months, and MVRV has not yet reached the sub-1.0 threshold that has historically marked capitulation extremes. A break below 1.0 would put the ratio in territory associated with deep bear-market lows, meaning the current level, while compressed, may not yet represent the full extent of this cycle's reset.
Bitcoin's MVRV ratio sitting near 1.2 signals a market that has unwound much of its prior excess valuation, with the sub-1.0 undervalued zone now within reach if the decline persists.
This reflects my own views. Not financial advice.
Written by Rich_dady

Bullish??
Written by Crypto_Lion

Bullish
Written by Crypto_Lion

uhhh
Written by Crypto_Lion

Before 2024, Bitcoin had never reclaimed its previous all time high ahead of a halving.
Previous recoveries took:
2013 to 2017: 1,181 days
2017 to 2020: 1,097 days
2021 to 2024: 851 days
The latest recovery arrived 42 days before the 2024 halving, marking a first in Bitcoin’s history.
Each recovery has taken less time than the one before it. This does not guarantee that the pattern will continue, but it suggests that Bitcoin’s market cycle may be changing.
If recovery periods continue to compress, buyers waiting for another prolonged accumulation window may need to reconsider how long those opportunities remain open.
Written by Andrew Kamsky

Before 2024, Bitcoin had never reclaimed its previous all time high ahead of a halving.
Previous recoveries took:
2013 to 2017: 1,181 days
2017 to 2020: 1,097 days
2021 to 2024: 851 days
The latest recovery arrived 42 days before the 2024 halving, marking a first in Bitcoin’s history.
Each recovery has taken less time than the one before it. This does not guarantee that the pattern will continue, but it suggests that Bitcoin’s market cycle may be changing.
If recovery periods continue to compress, buyers waiting for another prolonged accumulation window may need to reconsider how long those opportunities remain open.
Written by Andrew kamsky

Bitcoin spot trading activity has fallen to its weakest levels in months across major centralized exchanges, pointing to a broad contraction in market participation rather than an isolated decline on a single platform.
According to seven-day average data, Bitcoin spot volume on Binance declined to approximately $1.16 billion on July 29, its lowest level since October 2025. Across a group of more than 16 centralized exchanges excluding Binance, combined volume dropped to $3.7 billion—the lowest reading since July 2024.
The deeper historical low recorded outside Binance suggests that reduced activity has spread across the wider spot market.
Binance, however, continued to hold substantial market weight: its volume was equivalent to roughly 31% of the combined volume recorded by all other tracked exchanges, representing nearly 24% of total observed activity.
The reading coincided with the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision.
The Fed maintained its target rate at 3.50%–3.75%, but the decision passed by a 9–3 vote, with three members supporting a 25-basis-point increase.
The unusually divided vote kept the prospect of further monetary tightening in focus, reinforcing uncertainty around liquidity conditions for risk assets.
Because the volume indicator represents a seven-day average, the decline cannot be attributed solely to the Fed announcement. However, the absence of a meaningful recovery around one of the month’s most closely watched macroeconomic events indicates that Bitcoin spot traders remain cautious and selective.
The central signal is clear: Bitcoin is experiencing a market-wide decline in spot participation, while Binance continues to retain a significant share of the remaining trading activity.
Written by Amr Taha

Data from CryptoQuant shows that the number of Binance User Deposit Addresses has continued to increase significantly, recently reaching its highest level in several months.
This indicates that more and more addresses are transferring $BTC to Binance. In general, a rising number of deposit addresses reflects more active on-chain activity related to the exchange, but it does not necessarily mean that all of this $BTC will be sold immediately. If the number of deposit addresses continues to rise while Netflow also turns strongly positive, short-term selling pressure could increase significantly.
Written by Rei Researcher

Both Binance XRP inflow and outflow transaction counts have weakened significantly across all major value bands, suggesting that not only selling pressure but also buying interest has faded.
On the outflow side, transactions above 10K XRP, especially 100K–1M XRP and 1M+ XRP, have dropped sharply compared to previous periods. Normally, large exchange outflows indicate investors are moving coins into private wallets, reducing potential selling supply. However, since whale outflows are now unusually low, this cannot be interpreted as a strong accumulation signal.
The inflow chart shows a similar pattern. Large transfers into Binance have also declined substantially compared to 2024-2025, indicating that whales are not actively sending XRP to exchanges. As a result, immediate selling pressure appears much weaker than in previous market phases.
With both inflows and outflows declining simultaneously, there is neither clear distribution nor strong accumulation. Instead, the market appears to be in a waiting phase, where lower liquidity and reduced trading activity make it harder for price to establish a strong directional move.
The most notable change is the sharp decline in 1M+ XRP transactions on both sides. This suggests that whales are largely staying on the sidelines rather than actively positioning. Without fresh institutional or whale capital entering the market, XRP lacks the momentum needed for a stronger trend.
Meanwhile, the 1K-10K XRP segment still accounts for most transaction activity, indicating that retail investors remain the primary participants. However, previous bull markets were largely driven by large volume whale transactions rather than retail flows. Until whale activity returns, XRP is likely to remain in a relatively quiet and range bound market environment.
Written by PelinayPA

Since its last high of $3.66, XRP has undergone a correction of more than 72%, even sending it below the $1 mark for a few days.
Today, XRP is trading at 70% of its all-time high and is attempting to consolidate above $1.
Consolidation phases typically form through an exchange of hands between sellers and buyers, particularly following a distribution episode followed by a gradual exhaustion of sellers. This is precisely the dynamic we can observe through XRP inflows to Binance, which have just hit an all-time low.
Average monthly XRP inflows to the platform now stand at around 3.6M XRP. While this figure may seem high in absolute terms, it actually represents the lowest level ever recorded, reflecting the absence of any strong willingness to sell among holders.
This exhaustion of selling pressure should help XRP build a solid floor above the $1 threshold. What remains to be seen is whether a genuine rebound in demand will follow this lull on the sell side, a condition that appears necessary to spark a sustainable bullish trend.
Written by Darkfost

Yesterday the Fed decided once again to hold rates at 3.5%-3.75% after a vote of 9 in favor and 3 against, so this was not a consensus.
This is the longest pause since the 2008 crisis.
During the press conference a fairly hawkish tone was used and it was confirmed that the 2% inflation target remains the only target to reach.
Yet the Fed decided not to act even though inflation remains much higher.
This development was received quite poorly by the bond market, and in particular long rates climbed higher.
The 10 year T-Note reached 4.7% and the 30 year surpassed 5.2%, a record since 2007.
The tightening of monetary conditions continues and this dynamic reflects investors’ loss of confidence.
That is to say, investors in US debt, institutions, governments, do not trust the U.S.’s ability to control inflation and its deficit, and holding this debt currently seems riskier to them.
For a risk asset like Bitcoin, this vice tightening liquidity even further is not a positive development, especially with the dollar mechanically strengthening at the same time.
Bitcoin had never faced rates this globally high during its other cycles, while the need for liquidity keeps growing as its market cap continues to climb.
For now the situation is therefore not very favorable, but it is nonetheless reaching extremes today, which will push the Fed to act if it doesn’t want to lose control and investors’ confidence.
Written by Darkfost

Binance derivatives market data indicates a significant decline in XRP contract activity, with open interest falling to approximately $369.6 million, its lowest level since 2024. Despite the high trading volumes recorded across Binance’s derivatives market, the decline in open interest is specifically related to XRP contracts, indicating a reduction in open positions and lower leverage usage in XRP derivatives. The decline also comes amid heightened market uncertainty following the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy decision, which may have contributed to traders reducing leveraged exposure and adopting a more cautious approach toward XRP derivatives.
Despite the high trading volumes recorded on Binance’s derivatives market, the decline in open interest is specifically related to XRP contracts, indicating a reduction in open positions and lower leverage usage in XRP derivatives.
A decrease in open interest is not, by itself, a direct bullish or bearish signal. Lower leverage may reduce liquidation risk and the potential for sharp price movements driven by excessive leveraged positioning, while also indicating weaker interest in maintaining or opening new XRP positions.
A rebound in open interest alongside a price recovery could indicate renewed speculative participation and capital entering XRP derivatives, while a continued decline may suggest that traders remain cautious despite broader trading activity on Binance.
Written by Arab Chain

Bitcoin closed at $63,850.66 on July 28, easing back from the two-week high of $66,520 touched on July 21. Price action has stayed range-bound, but two on-chain signals beneath the surface are worth flagging.
The first is the NVT Golden Cross — a signal that fires when the short-term network-value-to-transactions ratio crosses above its long-term trend, historically associated with undervaluation relative to on-chain activity. The metric jumped 429% versus its 90-day baseline and 34.7% over just the past week, reaching 0.36. A rising NVT Golden Cross typically suggests transaction throughput is outpacing price — a setup that has preceded recoveries in prior cycles, though it is not a standalone timing tool.
The second signal is more mechanical: Binance netflow whipped violently in the final two days of data. On July 27, the exchange saw a sharp outflow of -5,124 BTC, only for flows to reverse into a net inflow of +1,109 BTC the very next day, July 28. Such rapid reversals suggest short-term repositioning rather than a clear accumulation or distribution trend, adding noise right when the valuation signal is turning constructive.
Elsewhere, the backdrop stays quiet. Binance funding rates sit flat near 0.00–0.01, showing no leverage-driven distortion, while the Coinbase Premium has softened to -0.11, its weakest reading in two weeks, pointing to cooling US spot demand rather than aggressive buying.
The takeaway is a genuine tension: a structural valuation metric is flashing a bullish setup just as short-term exchange flows swing unpredictably and US spot demand cools. This kind of divergence — improving fundamentals against noisy short-term flow — has historically preceded either a decisive breakout once flows stabilize, or further consolidation if the whipsaw continues. Worth watching whether Binance netflow settles into a consistent direction over the coming days.
Written by CryptoOnchain