They say history doesn't always repeat itself, but in financial markets it often rhymes.
The recent dovish rumblings by U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have revived memories from early 2019 when bitcoin surged over 300% against a similar Fed backdrop.
Since early 2022, the Fed has raised interest rates by 525 basis points to tame inflation. The so-called liquidity tightening cycle has been one of the major sources of pain for risk assets, including bitcoin.
This week, the Fed policymakers have offered a dovish respite. On Tuesday, Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the central bank may not need to raise rates further. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Fed Governor Christopher Waller argued that rising Treasury yields have done the Fed's job, preventing any urgent need for another rate hike, according to Reuters.
These comments have strengthened the belief in the market that the central bank's dreaded tightening cycle ended with July's 25 basis point rate and that the bank will now wait to see how the macroeconomic situation unfolds in the coming months.
The Fed's previous rate cycle, which ran for three years, saw rates peak at 2.5% in December 2018, following which the central bank adopted a wait-and-watch mode for seven months. Bitcoin bottomed out in December 2018 and rose to $13,880 by the end of June 2019.
Another interesting parallel is that the latest pause in the Fed tightening cycle comes several months ahead of the supposedly-bullish Bitcoin blockchain's mining reward halving, just as it did four years ago.

"Reflecting back on 2019, the Fed concluded its rate-hiking cycle and entered a seven-month pause. During this period, Bitcoin experienced a dramatic price rally, surging by an impressive 325%," Markus Thielen, head of research and strategy, said in a note to clients last week. "In line with our outlook, it’s highly likely that the Fed concluded its rate-hiking cycle in July 2023."
"At present, the most critical macroeconomic factor appears to be a reflection of the situation in 2019 when the Fed paused its rake hikes, leading to a significant surge in bitcoin prices," Thielen added.
In other words, assuming all else is equal, past data favors an upside in bitcoin. The leading cryptocurrency by market value changed hands at $26,800 at press time, representing a 62% year-to-date gain, according to CoinDesk data.
While the 2019 playbook favours upside in bitcoin, an eventual Fed pivot to rate cuts might initially lead to price weakness.
Per Thielen, traders should closely follow the rationale behind potential Fed rate cuts. Rate cuts implemented to counter economic weakness and low inflation might have bearish implications, Thielen noted.
#btc #fed #crypto2023 #bitcoin

The crypto community has recently scrutinized the U.S. government’s allegedly prejudicial view of various crypto-based projects being used to fund terrorism. In a recent tweet, XRP enthusiast wEeZiE raised concerns regarding the U.S. Department of State’s mention of Ripple in their statement on cryptocurrency and its potential use by criminals.
Specifically, he raised apprehension that the U.S. government often mentions Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) when they seek to discuss matters related to the digital asset industry. However, according to the XRP enthusiast, the government remembers Ripple, the payment firm associated with XRP, whenever it seeks to criticize the crypto industry.

To bolster his claim, wEeZiE cited a post from the U.S. Department of State titled “Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Countering the Financing of Terrorism.” The shared screenshot highlighted the parts where the government emphasized how criminals and terrorist financiers may exploit various financial systems.
Specifically, the statement noted Bitcoin and Ripple technology are examples of the new payment methods for illicit purposes alongside traditional routes facilitating trade-based money laundering and cash couriers.
The mentioning of Ripple in such an ugly context did not sit well with the XRP Army. The XRP enthusiast highlighted that the U.S. publication on AML financing came through Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, whose father co-founded Warburg Pincus, one of the two investors in Genesis.
Notably, the point wEeZiE likely tried to illustrate was that the crypto lender Genesis has been entangled in multiple scandals despite its rich political backing. “How bizarre,” he remarked. For context, the bankrupt FTX and Three Arrows Capital (3AC) owed Genesis significant funds. Moreover, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has charged Genesis with selling unregistered securities.
#XRP #xrpl #SEC #ftx #crypto2023

Bitcoin price is consolidating above the $26,550 level. BTC could correct higher, but upsides might be capped near the $27,400 and $27,500 resistance levels.
Bitcoin Price Holds Support
Bitcoin price started a fresh decline from the $27,500 resistance. BTC traded below the $27,000 level to enter a bearish zone. Finally, the bulls appeared above the $26,500 support.
The price remained well-bid near the $26,550 level. The bears made two attempts to push the price below $26,550, but they failed. A low is formed near $26,551 and the price is now consolidating losses below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $28,285 swing high to the $26,551 low.
Bitcoin is now trading below $27,200 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $26,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.
Immediate resistance is near the $26,950 level. The first major resistance is $27,200 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. The next key resistance could be $27,400 and the trend line. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $28,285 swing high to the $26,551 low.

Bitcoin Price Holds Support
Bitcoin price started a fresh decline from the $27,500 resistance. BTC traded below the $27,000 level to enter a bearish zone. Finally, the bulls appeared above the $26,500 support.
The price remained well-bid near the $26,550 level. The bears made two attempts to push the price below $26,550, but they failed. A low is formed near $26,551 and the price is now consolidating losses below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $28,285 swing high to the $26,551 low.
Bitcoin is now trading below $27,200 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $26,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.
Immediate resistance is near the $26,950 level. The first major resistance is $27,200 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. The next key resistance could be $27,400 and the trend line. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $28,285 swing high to the $26,551 low.
#btc #crypto2023 #bitcoin #crypto

After an initial surge at the beginning of the year, most digital assets have lost momentum, with Bitcoin being down 3.5% over the past month and over 62% year-to-date. Similarly, altcoins such as are up in the year but down significantly over the last few weeks.
As the U.S. faces a “debt death spiral” of $33 trillion, analysts from Jefferies have now cautioned that the Federal Reserve may have to resume its money printing—possibly causing the U.S. dollar to crash and boosting the price of the flagship cryptocurrency as it competes with gold.
In a recent note to clients Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jeffries, called Bitcoin and gold “critical hedges” against the return of inflation as G7 central banks “will not be able to exit from unconventional monetary policy in a benign manner and will ultimately remain committed to ongoing central bank balance-sheet expansion in one form or another.”

Wood’s comments come at a time in which the U.S. Federal Reserve and other major central banks throughout the world have been aggressively raising interest rates to rein in inflation. The aggressive rate hikes have led to the collapse of several institutions, including Credit Suisse, which was bought by UBS for about $3.3 billion earlier this year.
After boosting its balance sheet with massive growth during the COVID-19 crisis and the lockdowns mandated over it, the Fed started to reduce its bloated balance sheet of almost $9 trillion in the spring of 2022. The process of quantitative tightening involves the central bank withdrawing money from the financial system, and shifting the responsibility of new debt to the private sector.
Now, analysts at Deutsche Bank have warned that the world could see a repeat of the 1970s stagflation era. In a note reported on by MarketWatch, macro strategist Henry Allen and research analyst Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace wrote:
So given inflation is still above its pre-pandemic levels, it is important not to get complacent about its path. After all, if there is another shock and inflation remains above target into a third or even a fourth year, it is increasingly difficult to imagine that long-term expectations will repeatedly stay lower than actual inflation.
Potential factors influencing such a shock could be the recent oubreak of war in Gaza, after the Palestinian militant group Hamas launched a multi-pronged attack on Israel – which led to its crypto accounts being frozen – and increased worker strikes, along with potential weather patterns affecting commodity prices.
If the US faces a recession, the Federal Reserve may be forced to flip on its hawkish stance and start stimulating the economy once again with lower interest rates following the recent money supply expansion. Such a move, Wood wrote, is “likely to culminate in the collapse of the U.S.-dollar paper standard to the benefit of both gold bullion owners and also owners of bitcoin.”

Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies like Ether and XRP have been attracting institutional interest over the last few weeks. As CryptoGlobe reported, major financial powerhouses that collectively manage an astounding $27 trillion in assets are making inroads into the world of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency after a race to list the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States kicked off.
In his note, Wood argued that Bitcoin has now “become investible for institutions” as custodian arrangements have made it an alternative store of value to gold.
#fed #btc #ETH #XRP #crypto2023

Long-term Bitcoin holders have kept on accumulating the flagship cryptocurrency at a rapid pace, despite the current sideways market that has seen BTC’s volatility plunge over time as it stays around the $27,000 mark.
According to data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, long-term Bitcoin holders have been accumulating approximately 50,000 BTC, worth over $1.35 billion, every month for at least 155 days.
The figures comes from the firm’s HODLer net position change metric. The metric measures how fast wallets that keep coins for at least 155 days are increasing their cryptocurrency holdings. Currently, long-term holders own more than 14.859 million Bitcoin, which is 76% of the available BTC supply, according to the data.
Backing up this data, popular cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez recently cited data from on-chain analytics firm Santiment on the microblogging platform X (formerly known as Twitter), noting that BTC whales have purchased around 20,000 BTC since the beginning of October, adding roughly $550 million to their stashes.

According to Glassnode, the Bitcoin blockchain is experiencing a noticeable coin dormancy pattern. Dormant coins are the ones that have not been moved for a long time, indicating a lack of supply in the market and opening up the possibility for a significant price increase if a supply shock is to occur.
As CryptoGlobe reported Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, recently predicted that the price of BTC will reach a valuation between $750,000 and $1 million by the year 2026.
He attributed this bullish forecast to a variety of economic factors, including government intervention, inflation, and the state of the global economy.
Recently, however, analyst Nicholas Merten warned his substantial following that Bitcoin could see a significant decline if the U.S. economy enters a recession. He attributes this potential fall to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, which he believes could lead to a prolonged economic downturn in the United States.
#btc #bitcoin #crypto2023

Bitcoin price is moving lower below the $27,200 support. BTC could decline further if the Israel-Hamas war escalates in the near term.
Bitcoin Price Starts Descend
Bitcoin price failed to gain pace above the $27,800 resistance. BTC reacted to the downside amid rising Israel-Hamas tensions. There were more than 1200 deaths reported already by Israel.
The price is moving lower below the $27,500 pivot level. There was also a downside break below the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $27,185 swing low to the $28,284 high. More importantly, the price traded below the key $27,200 support zone.
Bitcoin is now trading below $27,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $27,550 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.
If there is an upside correction, the price might face resistance near the $27,400 level. The next key resistance could be near the $27,500 level and the trend line. The first major resistance is $27,800, above which Bitcoin might test $28,250.

The main downtrend resistance could be $28,500. A close above the $28,500 resistance could start another increase. In the stated case, the price could rise toward the $30,000 resistance.
More Losses In BTC?
If Bitcoin fails to recover higher above the $27,500 resistance, there could be more losses. Immediate support on the downside is near the $27,000 level or the 1.236 Fib extension level of the upward move from the $27,185 swing low to the $28,284 high.
The next major support is near the $26,500 level. A downside break and close below the $26,500 support might send the price further lower. The next support sits at $26,000.
Technical indicators:
Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – $27,000, followed by $26,500.
Major Resistance Levels – $27,400, $27,500, and $28,500.

$BTC layer 2 Lightning Network has seen an estimated 1,212% growth in two years, with around 6.6 million routed transactions in August, a significant jump compared to August 2021’s 503,000 transitions, according to data from the Bitcoin only exchange River.
In an Oct. 10 report, River research analyst Sam Wouters explained the jump in routed transactions — which use more than two nodes to facilitate a transfer — came despite a 44% fall in Bitcoin’s price and considerably less online search interest.
“‘Nobody is using Lightning’ should now be a dead meme,” Wouters said in an Oct. 10 follow-up X (Twitter) post, taking a shot at Lightning critics.

River’s 6.6 million figure for Lightning routed transactions is a lower-bound estimate — the smallest possible value it could assess. The firm also sourced August 2021’s 503,000 figure from a 2021 study by K33, formerly Arcane Research and added it could not assess private Lightning transactions or those between only two participants.

$78.2 million in transaction volume was also processed on Lightning in August 2023, marking a 546% increase from August 2021’s $12.1 million figure sourced by K33. Wouters noted that Lightning is now processing at least 47% of Bitcoin’s on-chain transactions.
“This will be an interesting metric to monitor,” he added. “It is an indicator of Bitcoin becoming more of a medium of exchange.”

In August 2023, the average Lightning transaction size was around 44,700 satoshis or $11.84. River estimated between 279,000 and 1.1 million Lightning users were active in September.
The firm attributed 27% of transaction growth to the gaming, social media tipping and streaming sectors.
River said the Lightning payments success rate was 99.7% on its platform in August 2023 across 308,000 transactions. The main reason for failure occurs when no payment route can be found that has enough liquidity to facilitate the transfer.
River’s data set consisted of 2.5 million transactions. The nodes in River’s data set represent 29% of all the capacity on the network and 10% of payment channels.
#btc #crypto2023 #bitcoin

Stablecoin issuer Circle has announced it has begun minting USD Coin natively on the Ethereum layer-2 scaling protocol Polygon.USDC is accessible to users and developers without bridging the stablecoin from Ethereum to another blockchain. Circle Mint and Circle’s developer application programming interfaces now support Polygon-based USDC, tapping into Polygon’s scaling capabilities.According to the announcement from Circile, businesses and developers will be able to build decentralized applications (DApps) with USDC on Polygon. The new offering is touted to enable near-instant, low fee transactions for a variety of use cases including payments, remittances, trading, borrowing and lending.Before Circle’s announcement of its native Polygon USDC offering, users of the protocol had to make use of bridge USDC (USDC.e) from the Ethereum blockchain. The token is not issued by Circle, as opposed to its new offering that it assures will be redeemable at a 1:1 ratio for US dollars.Circle had previously provided support of deposits and withdrawals for USDC.e on Polygon for Circle Mint and its APIs. The issuer plans to discontinue this service from Nov. 10, warning users that attempt to send bridge USDC.e to Circle Mint accounts that their assets may be unrecoverable after this date.Circle also notes that provision of native Polygon USDC will enable low cost global payments and remittances as well as accessibility to trading, borrowing, and lending on leading DeFi protocols including Aave, Compound, Curve, Uniswap and Quickswap.The USDC issuer also plans to launch cross-chain transfer protocol to Polygon to enable interoperability with other blockchain networks. This is set to unlock Polygon-based USDC transfers to and from the Ethereum blockchain.#usdc #btc #ETH #crypto2023

Bitcoin ground higher on Oct. 10 after the start of legacy market trading saw “de-risking” take over.

Bitcoin price preserves weekly support
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price stability returning ahead of the Wall Street open.
Bitcoin bulls had lost their footing as the week began, with heading to $27,300 before reversing to trade near $27,700 at the time of writing.
“Overall there's been a lot of market de-risking into $27.4K - $27.3K,” popular trader Skew wrote in part of X analysis at the time.
“Important area now because losing that level would take prices back to 1W demand. More importantly, around here into tomorrow buyers need to establish price control for a move higher.”
Continuing on the day, Skew noted that derivatives traders controlled trajectory for the time being.
“Better to see what spot market wants later,” he advised.

Some market participants were broadly optimistic, among them Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm MN Trading.
In his latest X post, Van de Poppe described altcoins as being “hammered” by sell pressure while Bitcoin held support.
“If Bitcoin is able to break back above $28,000, the thesis to $35,000-40,000 might become real,” he argued.
A previous post predicted that “most likely the path towards $30K is going to start from here,” with an accompanying chart showing relevant resistance levels.

Altcoins bear brunt of crypto cold feet
Against altcoins, the picture remains in Bitcoin’s favor, data meanwhile showed.
Bitcoin’s share of the overall crypto market cap hit 51.35% on Oct. 9, marking its highest levels since mid-July.

“A lot of Altcoins looking like they are breaking major support zones and bringing us some juicy short entries,” popular trader Crypto Tony continued on the topic.
On Bitcoin, Crypto Tony flagged $27,200 as the level to hold to avoid going short BTC.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
#btc #crypto2023 #bitcoin #ethereum #XRP

Bitcoin price failed to clear the $28,500 resistance and corrected lower. BTC retested the $27,250 support and is currently attempting a fresh increase.
Bitcoin Price Faces Key Hurdles
Bitcoin price started a decent increase above the $27,800 resistance. However, BTC failed to remain in a positive zone and revisit the $28,500 resistance zone.
There was a steady decline below the $28,000 level. The price declined below the $27,500 level, but the bulls were active above the $27,250 support zone. A low was formed near $27,275 and the price is now rising. There was a move above the $27,500 level.
Bitcoin climbed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $28,284 high to the $27,275 high. It is now trading below $27,800 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
Besides, there is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $27,780 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $27,780 level and the trend line. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $28,284 high to the $27,275 high.

The next key resistance could be near the $28,100 level. The first major resistance is $28,250, above which Bitcoin might test $28,500. A close above the $28,500 resistance could start another increase. In the stated case, the price could rise toward the $29,200 resistance. Any more gains might call for a move toward the $30,000 level.
Another Drop In BTC?
If Bitcoin fails to continue higher above the $27,780 resistance, there could be a fresh decline. Immediate support on the downside is near the $27,500 level.
The next major support is near the $27,250 level. A downside break and close below the $27,250 support might spark strong bearish moves. The next support sits at $26,200.
Technical indicators:
Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – $27,500, followed by $27,250.
Major Resistance Levels – $27,780, $28,250, and $28,500.

As the crypto community’s anticipation heightens for the upcoming Bitcoin halving, Changpeng Zhao (CZ), CEO of Binance, recently elucidated his observations around the historical patterns tied to this quadrennial event. Highlighting the evolving sentiments and speculations, CZ spotlighted the dominant themes before and after the halving events.
CZ observed that the preceding months to the halving are generally characterized by heightened discourse, diverse sentiments, and amplified expectations within the cryptocurrency sphere. “The few months leading up to the Bitcoin halving, there will be more and more chatter, news, anxiety, expectations, hype, hope, etc.,” he stated.
Addressing the commonly held belief that Bitcoin’s price will witness an immediate uptick post-halving, CZ dispelled such notions based on historical patterns. “The day after the halving, the Bitcoin price won’t double overnight. And people will be asking why it didn’t,” he remarked, addressing the immediate aftermath expectations.
While the short-term reactions post-halving may be tempered, CZ shed light on a longer-term trend where Bitcoin often reaches new all-time highs (ATHs) within the year that follows. In reference to the market’s ability to quickly transition from skepticism to marvel, he quipped, “People have short memories.”
However, CZ urged caution, emphasizing that historical patterns should not be construed as definitive indicators for future behaviors, noting, “Not saying there is proven causation. And history does NOT predict the future.”
A More In-Depth Analysis Of Bitcoin Halving
As Bitcoinist reported, renowned crypto analyst Rekt Capital recently published an in-depth analysis of the Bitcoin halving, offering a more granular view of the potential phases surrounding the event which is only 197 days and a few hours away according to Binance’s estimates.
Reflecting on historical patterns, the analyst suggested a possible deeper retrace for Bitcoin in the 140 days leading up to the halving. Drawing historical parallels, Rekt Capital emphasized, “You can debate whether 2023 is more like 2015 or more like 2019… Doesn’t change the fact that BTC retraced -24% in 2015 and -38% in 2019 at this same point in the cycle (i.e. ~200 days before the halving).”

Anticipating market dynamics as the halving nears, Rekt Capital postulated that roughly 60 days before the event, historically a pre-halving rally will likely emerge. This phase, marked by investor enthusiasm and elevated expectations as CZ puts it, is often characterized by buying into the halving anticipation.
But this enthusiastic phase doesn’t last. Around the halving event, the market often shows pullback behavior under the motto “buy the rumor, sell the news”. Highlighting this trend, the analyst cited the -38% dip witnessed in 2016 and the -20% decline in 2020, moments when the market re-evaluated the halving’s short-term implications.
Subsequent to this, Rekt Capital predicts a multi-month re-accumulation phase, often marked by investor fatigue due to stagnation. However, breaking out of this phase typically heralds Bitcoin’s entry into a parabolic uptrend, potentially culminating in new all-time highs.
#btc #crypto2023 #ETH #XRP #binance