Over the past two months, Bitcoin has been trading sideways following its recent rally. Historically, Bitcoin's rapid expansions have coincided with significant increases in the global money supply (M2), indicating high liquidity and strong investor risk appetite. However, this dynamic is currently absent. Despite a slight rise in global liquidity benefiting Bitcoin, the year-over-year change in M2 has returned to neutral levels.

This shift occurred after persistent U.S. inflation data led to a downward revision in market interest rate cut expectations. Currently, there are no immediate signs of a surge in demand that could significantly push prices higher. On the supply side, selling pressure has decreased as Long Term Holders (LTHs) have seen price stabilization around $60k, and Short Term Holders (STHs) have reduced sales due to decreased profitability.

The market is likely to maintain its sideways trend until triggers emerge that can drive a decisive movement. The current market structure suggests potential for a more expressive rally within this cycle. The most probable scenario is that Bitcoin will stay within this trading range until a more favorable macroeconomic setting emerges, likely centered around the expected first U.S. interest rate cut in September. This could spark a new demand wave and a subsequent rally, marking the cycle's peak. The upcoming U.S. inflation data is pivotal and may shape market expectations about short-term monetary policy.