The cryptocurrency market has entered a crucial phase in its development, as on-chain supply in loss (%) has reached the 0.78 retracement level, marking the bottom of Bitcoin and signaling the beginning of phase 1. In phase 2, unprofitable supply moves downwards, entering the 0.618-0.50 retracement range and typically entering a sideways trading mode, indicating an early Bitcoin bullish top (early high-profit run). This phase is currently unfolding, and it is generally considered a transit optimistic event, as repeated parabolic growth of losses is unlikely to occur afterward.

The current movement of supply in loss within the 0.618-0.50 retracement zone is reminiscent of the pre-halving dynamics in 2016, with the only exception being the 2020 black swan event. As the market progresses into phase 3, the supply in loss is expected to break down the consolidation trading range and continue its downward trajectory to the 0.236 retracement level, known as the reversal. This indicates Bitcoin's proximity to the top of the bull market, further solidifying the optimistic outlook for the cryptocurrency industry.