美股投资young

Microsoft spent over $5 billion less on capital expenditures this quarter. Its stock didn’t get rewarded for it; the companies supplying its compute capacity took the hit first.

Azure revenue was $33.17 billion this quarter, up 48%, with guidance of 49% to 50% growth next quarter. Capital expenditures plus finance leases came to $45.2 billion, versus market expectations of about $50.7 billion. The CFO said the reason was that delivery of some third-party GPU compute capacity had been delayed and pushed into the second half of the fiscal year. The money not spent went straight to free cash flow: $18.6 billion, compared with analysts’ expectations of only about $8 billion.

Microsoft didn’t name who was behind the delayed deliveries, but the market did. CoreWeave fell from $63.93 at the close on the day of the earnings report to $54.87 on Friday, down about 14% in two trading days. $IREN dropped 8.76% on Friday alone, closing at $23.95—nearly 70% below its one-year high of $76.87. $MSFT itself briefly rose to $546.30 after hours, then closed at $523.09 two trading days later, giving back all of its gains.

What does this tell us? Risk isn’t evenly distributed across the AI compute chain. Cloud giants have cash flow to fall back on, so a late delivery just pushes their spending back. New cloud companies that borrow to build data centers and rent compute capacity to the giants lose a quarter’s worth of revenue when delivery is delayed by a quarter, but still have to pay interest. With 10-year Treasury yields hovering near 5%, that interest is only going to get more expensive.

For crypto investors, the company to watch is one like IREN. It started out as a BTC miner, but over the past two years has shifted its power and data centers toward AI cloud services, and it also landed a contract worth about $9.7 billion with Microsoft. During the transition, the market valued it as an AI company. Now that financing costs for AI infrastructure are being repriced, that premium is the first thing to go. $BTC is currently hovering around $78,000, so it won’t be easy for miners to prop up their valuations with the price of the coin either.

If the delays Microsoft mentioned really turn into deliveries in the first half of next year, revenue for new cloud companies will catch up, and this assessment will need to change. Until then, the market cares only about the cash they have on hand.

In the same earnings report, companies with cash are simply paying later; companies that borrow are collecting later.

#USStocks #AI #Bitcoin #Microsoft

Of Tesla’s $787 million in third-quarter net income, $288 million came from an increase in BTC’s book value.

Those are the figures in the earnings report released after the market closed on October 21. Tesla didn’t sell a single one of the 11,509 BTC it holds. Their quarter-end value was $962 million, and remeasurement at fair value added $288 million in pretax gains—more than a third of net income. Meanwhile, revenue from the core business, automotive, fell 3% year over year, capital expenditures doubled to $3.73 billion, and GAAP net income dropped 29% year over year.

The stock still rose. Over the course of October, $TSLA climbed from 354.81 to 399.81, up about 12.7%, while Nvidia fell about 10% and Micron about 17% over the same period. Investors are pulling back from AI hardware, yet are willing to pay more for an automaker whose profits are shrinking. They’re buying the story of robots and self-driving cars, while the BTC gain on the earnings report was largely left out of the valuation.

The question is what happens in the fourth quarter. BTC was around $83,600 on September 30 and is now around $77,800. At that price difference, Tesla’s BTC holdings have already lost about $66 million in value this quarter. The brick that propped up the income statement in the third quarter could become a hole in the fourth. In the first quarter of this year, the company recorded a $222 million loss due to the drop in the coin’s price.

If BTC recovers to $83,600 before the end of the year, that loss will be reversed, giving fourth-quarter profits an extra cushion.

When a company hoards crypto, its price becomes the line on the income statement that management has the least control over.

#USStocks #Tesla #Bitcoin $BTC

In the seven trading days after Meta reported earnings that beat expectations, its stock fell nearly 12%—a steeper drop than the one on earnings day itself.

Meta reported its third-quarter results after the market closed on October 21: revenue of $64.6 billion, up 26% year over year, and guidance of $73 billion to $76 billion for next quarter, with the midpoint above expectations. The stock fell about 7% the next day, then closed at $614.99 on October 30, sinking even further from its pre-earnings price of $697.52.

The market is selling off over cash flow. Quarterly capital expenditures hit $34.9 billion, pushing free cash flow to negative $2.1 billion—the first time the company has burned cash in more than a decade. The lower end of its full-year capital expenditure forecast was also raised to $135 billion. Its financing plans are even more striking: the company plans to create a new class of non-voting Class C shares to raise money for AI investment, while five-year CDS hit a record high of 114.79 basis points that same day. Shareholders and creditors are starting to worry at the same time.

With advertising business so strong, why isn’t that enough? Operating cash flow was $32.8 billion, against $34.9 billion in capital expenditures. Ad revenue can no longer cover the compute bill; the shortfall can only be made up by issuing shares or borrowing. When a company shifts from returning capital to shareholders to diluting them, its valuation has to be reassessed as that of a capital-intensive business.

The connection to BTC runs through the cost of capital. When even the richest tech giants start issuing shares and credit spreads widen, while 10-year Treasury yields hover near 5%, long-term investors become more discerning. Risk assets without cash flow are the first to be asked to deliver higher returns. BTC is now around $77,900 and has been caught up in the AI stock sell-off over the past two weeks. That’s the underlying reason.

If Meta’s free cash flow turns positive in the fourth quarter, or capital expenditures don’t rise again in 2027, this assessment will need to change.

When a good company starts asking its shareholders for money, the price has to be renegotiated.

#USStocks #AI #Bitcoin $META $BTC

Stablecoins are shrinking, and that’s worth watching more closely than BTC dropping to $78,000.

According to CoinGecko’s market cap data, USDT and USDC together were worth about $258.9 billion at the end of September. Now they’re at about $251.7 billion—a drop of more than $7 billion in just over a month. USDT alone has fallen by about $2.2 billion in the past four days. Over the same period, $BTC dropped from above $84,000 to around $78,000, a decline of about 7.6%.

Stablecoins are cash in the crypto market. If prices fall but the stablecoin supply stays the same, it means money has been converted to USDT and is waiting on the sidelines for an opportunity. If prices fall and the stablecoin supply shrinks too, it means money is being redeemed for dollars and leaving the market altogether. This time, it’s the latter.

So why are people still calling for a buy-the-dip? Because everyone’s used to someone stepping in when prices fall far enough—but the firepower available to buy the dip is dwindling. The 10-year Treasury yield is still hovering near 5%, so the opportunity cost of sitting around in non-yielding stablecoins is getting higher.

It’s the same dynamic behind the U.S. stock market’s moves over the past few weeks: money first pulls out of high-volatility assets and moves to cash, then decides whether to come back.

If stablecoin supply starts growing again from here, even if BTC hasn’t moved yet, that would change my view. It’s usually the first sign that money from the sidelines is coming back. Until then, I’d rather treat any bounce as just a bounce.

Prices can fall and still bounce. When the firepower runs low, that’s when things really get cold.

#Bitcoin #Stablecoins #Treasuries $BTC

Apple has barely taken part in this round of the AI arms race, yet the market has given it the richest valuation among all the tech giants.

As of Thursday’s close, $AAPL was trading at about 40 times its earnings over the past four quarters, compared with about 27.7 times for Microsoft, 21.3 times for Meta, and just 14.7 times for Google. The heavier the capital spending, the cheaper the valuation. What investors are willing to pay more for now is the certainty of a business that doesn’t have to burn cash.

That certainty will be put to the test next Monday. Apple will report its September-quarter results after the market closes on Monday in the U.S., or early Tuesday morning Beijing time. The company’s own guidance calls for revenue growth of 9% to 11% and a gross margin of 47% to 48%. The consensus forecast is for revenue of about $112.95 billion and earnings per share of about $1.98.

So where’s the risk for Apple? It’s precisely in AI. Data centers are snapping up memory chips. Cook said in July that memory prices would continue to rise and that the impact on the business would grow. Mac and iPad prices have already gone up. While others spend money building AI infrastructure, Apple is picking up the tab for their higher memory costs.

A 40-times valuation means merely decent results won’t be enough. In July, revenue grew 16% and iPhone revenue grew 22%, but the stock still fell about 7% in a single day because the next-quarter guidance came in below expectations.

Crypto investors should watch this report because of where the money is flowing. For the past few weeks, U.S. stock market investors have been pulling out of capital-intensive AI hardware and taking shelter in more stable cash-flow businesses. BTC hovered around 78,000 over the weekend, trading like the most volatile part of the AI basket. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near 5%, September PCE inflation was 3.6%, and two officials supported a rate hike at last week’s policy meeting. The interest-rate overhang hasn’t lifted.

If even a safe haven like Apple gets its valuation cut because of memory costs, that would suggest there’s nowhere left to hide in U.S. stocks. Risk assets would have to reduce exposure together, making it hard for BTC to rally on its own. If Apple’s guidance holds steady, money will simply keep rotating within U.S. tech stocks, and BTC will face only the pressure of that rotation.

If Apple delivers guidance above expectations while the Nasdaq and BTC still fall together, this view will need to change. That would mean interest rates, rather than earnings, are what’s weighing on the market.

The most expensive safe haven is also the least able to withstand a surprise.

#AppleEarnings #USStocks #Bitcoin $BTC

Cloud revenue more than doubled in a year, yet Google just had its worst day since going public.

$GOOGL reported third-quarter Google Cloud revenue of $30.7 billion, up 103% year over year, while its cloud operating margin climbed from 23.7% to 36.2%. Shares fell about 13% on Thursday in the U.S., wiping out roughly $500 billion in market value in a single day—a steeper drop than the record set in March 2020. This time, the market is punishing the cash economics of the business; demand for AI itself isn’t the problem.

So why couldn’t its best-performing business save the stock? In the same quarter, Google spent $51.4 billion on capital expenditures and posted negative free cash flow of $9.1 billion, while analysts had expected a deficit of just $2.7 billion. Management also said capital expenditures would rise significantly in 2027, with market expectations topping $300 billion. Search revenue grew just 12%, and revenue and earnings per share both missed expectations for the first time in nearly four years. Growth is coming from the cloud, but the bill is landing on the whole company.

The comparison with crypto is straightforward. BTC is currently around $78,000, with a total market cap of about $1.56 trillion. The market value Google lost in one day was roughly a third of that. One earnings report from a tech giant can drain this much risk capital, so it’s no surprise that BTC has recently weakened alongside AI stocks. Investors are recalculating when the money being spent will come back, and high-valuation tech stocks and crypto assets are being measured by the same yardstick.

If Google clarifies its 2027 spending plans on its fourth-quarter earnings call and free cash flow turns positive again, there’s room for this valuation squeeze to ease—and for risk appetite toward BTC to recover. On the other hand, if negative cash flow spreads from one or two companies to become the norm across the cloud industry, this will no longer be a problem unique to Google.

Growth can be written into guidance; cash flow can only be written into the financial statements.

#U.S.Stocks #GoogleEarnings #Bitcoin $BTC

Amazon was still down nearly 7% in premarket trading on Friday, but ended the day down just 1.41%.

In this round of AI earnings, the market has rarely stepped in to help a giant recover most of its losses.

$AMZN reported third-quarter AWS revenue of $46 billion, up 39% year over year, and operating income of $17.8 billion, with a 38.7% margin. The price tag was right there in the report, too: cash capital expenditures totaled $75.9 billion for the quarter, versus $34.2 billion a year earlier; free cash flow over the past 12 months was negative $42.4 billion, compared with positive $14.8 billion a year earlier. The company maintained its full-year capital spending forecast of about $220 billion and said it would increase significantly again in 2027.

So why has the stock held up despite all that spending?

Because alongside every dollar spent, there’s visible revenue growth. The Nasdaq fell 2.9% on Friday. Amazon opened near $232 and climbed back to close at $240.35. The market isn’t punishing companies for spending money; it’s punishing those that spend but can’t deliver revenue growth. This is splitting AI stocks into two camps, and the divergence will only widen over the coming weeks.

For crypto, there’s another side to watch. Amazon’s interest expense was $1.69 billion in a single quarter, up from just $540 million a year earlier—more than tripling. That shows that even the companies with the most cash are starting to borrow to buy computing power. As giants tap the bond market to raise funds, the overall cost of capital rises. BTC has been trading as an AI risk asset in this cycle, and interest rates weigh on it no less heavily than they do on chip stocks. Strategy, which buys crypto by issuing common and preferred shares, faces the same cost of capital.

If AWS growth slips back to the low 30% range in the fourth quarter while capital spending keeps rising, this view will need to change: Amazon will go from being one the market catches to one it sells.

Spending heavily isn’t scary. What’s scary is spending all that money and hearing no echo of revenue.

#USStocks #AI #Bitcoin #FederalReserve $BTC

$440 million flowed in over four days, then $640 million flowed out in a single Friday.

U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw combined net inflows of about $441 million from Monday through Thursday last week, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for more than 90% of the total. On Friday alone, they saw net outflows of about $643 million Eastern Time, led by redemptions from IBIT, FBTC, and ARKB. The week ended with net outflows of about $200 million instead. Across all 22 trading days in October, net outflows totaled about $515 million. $BTC traded sideways around $77,800 over the weekend, not far from October’s low of $76,300.

The nature of ETF buying has changed. In mid-October, we were still seeing daily inflows of more than $500 million. Now, inflows are small, gradual steps of $100–200 million a day, while outflows come in a single $600 million lump. Buyers are testing the waters; sellers are heading for the exits. The two sides are showing very different levels of patience.

Did those four days of inflows mean dip buyers were stepping in? Yes, but not in sufficient size. On October 22 and 23, outflows totaled about $770 million. The next four days made back less than 60% of that, and Friday wiped it all out again. It’s the same pattern as the U.S. semiconductor rallying for a few days, only to give it all back in a single down day.

The weekend price holding steady doesn’t mean ETF investors have settled down too. They can’t trade over the weekend, so their sentiment won’t be expressed until the U.S. market opens on Monday. That makes the flow on the first trading day of the week more informative than the weekend candlesticks.

If we see net inflows of more than $300 million on both Monday and Tuesday, this bearish outlook will need to be revised. If there’s another day with more than $500 million in outflows, October’s low near $76,000 will likely be tested again.

Inflows come from testing the waters; outflows come from decisive action. This week, let’s see who’s more resolute.

#Bitcoin #BitcoinETF #CryptoMarket $BTC

On the last trading day of October, Eli Lilly, Exxon Mobil, and Walmart contributed the most to the S&P 500’s gains, while Nvidia, Intel, and AMD were the biggest drags.

Money didn’t leave U.S. stocks—it just left AI.

For the whole month of October, the Dow rose 1.70% and the Russell 2000 eked out a 0.54% gain, while the Nasdaq fell 5.30%. On Friday, October 30 (U.S. Eastern Time), the S&P 500’s technology sector dropped 4.89%, while energy rose 1.91% and consumer staples gained 1.41%. $LLY reported quarterly revenue of $24.4 billion, up 39% year over year, and raised its full-year revenue guidance to $91–92 billion. Its shares rose another 3.19% on Friday. $NVDA fell 4.22% that same day, while Intel plunged 28.58% in a single session.

By sector, this was a rotation: investors sold crowded AI hardware stocks and shifted into pharmaceuticals, energy, and consumer businesses with visible cash flows. The indexes fell moderately, but individual stocks were hit hard—the kind of market structure that can easily lead people to think, “The market’s holding up, so buying the dip must be right.”

So where does BTC stand?

This time around, it’s been put in the same basket as AI. BTC fell about 7.2% in October, more than the Nasdaq, and didn’t attract any defensive capital. When institutions went defensive, they bought weight-loss drug orders and supermarket traffic—not volatility.

So in the short term, watching the Nasdaq and chip stocks is more useful for BTC than following the “digital gold” narrative. As long as investors are still cutting exposure to AI hardware, it will be hard for crypto to rally on its own. Betting on an independent rebound with highly leveraged contracts right now means betting on a condition that hasn’t appeared yet.

If AI hardware finds a floor next week and money that rotated out starts flowing back into tech, this view will need to change. BTC could then turn out to be one of the fastest to rebound.

Defensive money only buys certainty; upside potential will have to wait until risk-taking money returns.

#USStocks #Bitcoin #AI #SectorRotation $BTC

ETH fell more than twice as much as BTC in October.

Based on Binance spot monthly candles, which closed at 8 a.m. Beijing time this morning, BTC fell from $83,624 to $77,582, down about 7.2% in October. ETH fell from $2,686 to $2,256, down about 16%. The ETH/BTC exchange rate dropped from 0.0321 to 0.0291, losing about 9.5% in a month, and hitting a low of 0.02835 during the month.

Uptober never came—that’s no longer news. What matters more is how differently the two assets fell: BTC saw a broad-based decline, while ETH was treated like an ATM. In U.S. stocks, semiconductor and high-beta AI stocks are being deleveraged; in crypto, the more volatile assets are likewise the first to be sold, as capital retreats into the most liquid assets.

So after such a steep drop in ETH, is it worth switching over to bet on a rebound? A month of falling exchange rates doesn’t mean a month of getting cheaper. Buying the dip in ETH/BTC while it’s trending down is like buying high-beta small-cap stocks during a pullback in chip stocks: either way, you’re betting that risk appetite will recover.

I’d watch two things first. One: can BTC hold near its October low of $76,326? Two: can ETH/BTC climb back above 0.03? If BTC fails to hold, ETH will likely fall even harder. If ETH/BTC gets back above that level, it would show that capital is willing to move back out along the risk curve.

If ETH/BTC bottoms before BTC in the first week of November, I’ll have to revise this view—that would signal an early recovery in risk appetite.

When the tide goes out, first look at who’s standing in the deepest water.

#Bitcoin #Ethereum #CryptoMarket $BTC $ETH

The U.S. economy grew 3.4% this quarter, with a quarter of that growth coming from computers and servers. Yet Wall Street dumped AI stocks in the same week.

In its advance estimate released Thursday, the U.S. Commerce Department said real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.4% in the third quarter, up from just 2.2% in the second. Information-processing equipment alone contributed 0.86 percentage points, mainly from computers and peripheral equipment. Its nominal value rose from $836.4 billion in the second quarter to $933.9 billion. Data center purchases are now making a tangible contribution to the U.S. growth ledger.

How did the market respond? On Friday, the Nasdaq fell another 2.86%, closing at 25,437, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.82%.

These two things aren’t contradictory. GDP measures money already spent; stock prices are concerned with when that money will be earned back. In their latest earnings reports, Amazon and Google both showed capital spending eating into cash flow, and investors have started discounting the time it will take to see returns. The more GDP relies on AI, the greater the weight of that discount on the overall market.

U.S. Treasuries offered a little relief. The 10-year yield closed Friday at 4.94%, down from 5.05% on Wednesday. With growth this strong, yields are falling instead—a sign that investors are more likely seeking safety than trading on overheating concerns.

BTC is now hovering around $77,700, holding steady for the weekend. It and AI hardware stocks like $NVDA are being weighed down by the same sentiment: the growth story hasn’t fallen apart; investors just aren’t willing to pay a premium for returns so far in the future.

If AI leaders keep getting sold off next week despite this GDP report, the market will have shifted its focus from the economy to valuations themselves. If tech stocks find a floor and the 10-year yield stays below 5%, this sell-off will look more like a repricing of the time it takes to earn a return.

The economy is paying for AI; the stock market is settling the bill.

#U.S.Stocks #U.S.GDP #AI #Bitcoin $BTC

A company with an 85% gross margin beat earnings expectations, yet its stock still got cut by 13.5% the next day.

SanDisk posted revenue of $11.03 billion this quarter, up 23% sequentially, and non-GAAP earnings per share of $49.51, above the expected $46.22. Its revenue guidance for next quarter of $12.2 billion to $12.6 billion also came in above market estimates. $SNDK briefly turned positive after hours, but closed Friday’s regular session at $1,150.89, down 13.47% for the day. That puts it down about 36% from its October 1 closing price.

With results this strong, why sell?

The answer lies in positioning. Storage has been one of the strongest-performing parts of this year’s AI trade. During October’s round of risk reduction, investors have often sold the most profitable and crowded trades first. Amazon and Intel’s earnings hit the indexes that same night, and as funds moved to reduce their tech exposure, storage—with its biggest unrealized gains—became an ATM. An 8-for-1 stock split doesn’t change that: market cap stays exactly the same; only the per-share price looks cheaper.

The crypto market has had the same dynamic in recent weeks. BTC is now around $77,600. The long-term stories around ETFs and on-chain activity are still intact; the decline is likewise due to risk assets broadly deleveraging. Fundamentals can support the long term, but they can’t withstand a wave of concentrated redemptions.

If storage stocks keep getting sold next week despite positive news, then the selling pressure isn’t over. If SanDisk holds near Friday’s low of $1,115 and trading volume starts to taper off, this decline looks more like a rotation of holders, and the cycle itself hasn’t peaked.

I’m still bullish on this storage pricing upcycle. But once gross margins reach 85%, the market starts asking whether they can get even better.

Profits can hit record highs without the stock following suit.

#USStocks #Storage #Bitcoin $BTC

Data center revenue grew 78% in a year, yet the stock plunged 28.58% in a single day. This time, Intel has made “good earnings” and “a falling stock price” two entirely separate things.

$INTC closed Friday at $65.76, its worst single-day performance since 1974. The third quarter itself was strong: revenue of $16.51 billion, up 21%, and adjusted EPS of $0.52, well above expectations. What crushed the stock was the fourth-quarter outlook: revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion and EPS of $0.25, versus market expectations of around $17.1 billion and $0.43.

Why couldn’t a better-than-expected quarter save the stock? Because the price reflects the next quarter. From the start of the year to its June peak, the stock rose nearly fourfold. Its valuation was already packed with expectations of a “successful turnaround.” When the outlook fell short, that premium was rapidly stripped away.

The reasons behind the weaker outlook are more concerning. AI data centers are squeezing memory supplies, and rising memory prices are in turn weighing on PCs. The company expects PC shipments to fall about 12% this year and another 10% next year. The AI boom is creating losers within the same supply chain, and this divergence will show up in more earnings reports ahead.

In crypto, with U.S. markets closed for the weekend, BTC has been fluctuating around $77,000. The biggest risk from this string of chip-stock blowups is that the fallout spreads beyond semiconductors and triggers market-wide deleveraging. If that happens, BTC is unlikely to remain unscathed.

If AMD and Qualcomm’s guidance this week can steady the data center outlook, then this is just a localized collapse in the PC supply chain. If they also start lowering their forecasts, that would change the picture.

Earnings tell you about the past; guidance sets the price.

#USStocks #Semiconductors #Bitcoin $INTC $BTC

BTC is now only about 3% above Strategy’s cost basis.

The third-quarter filing is clear: as of October 25, the company held 848,517 BTC at an average cost of about $75,446. BTC is now hovering around $77,700. At that price, its unrealized gains have shrunk from about $4.9 billion based on the filing to roughly $1.9 billion—nearly $3 billion wiped out in less than ten days.

Many people treat $75,446 as a hard floor, arguing that Saylor won’t let the price fall below his cost basis. That logic doesn’t hold up. The cost basis only determines how the financial statements look; it doesn’t determine whether there are buyers in the market. From June to August this year, its transaction records even showed several instances of net selling. When pressure builds, the company can adjust too.

Would a drop below cost trigger a sell-off? In the short term, probably not. The company has about $5.07 billion in cash and cash equivalents, which, according to its disclosures, can cover 3.4 years of preferred stock dividends and debt interest. Its net leverage has also fallen to 2.4%. No one is forcing it to sell its coins right now.

What matters more is whether the cycle of issuing shares to buy more BTC can keep turning. In the third quarter, it raised $5.4 billion through common stock offerings, bringing its total financing this year to $21.2 billion. If $MSTR keeps weakening along with BTC, issuing shares will become less and less worthwhile, and the market’s biggest buyer may put on the brakes itself.

So around $75,000, I’m watching to see whether this Bitcoin-buying machine still has fuel. Support comes second.

The cost basis only matters while buyers are still there; once they stop, it’s just a number.

#Bitcoin #MSTR #USStocks $BTC

AI hasn’t crashed. Chip investors’ patience has.

Last week, three cloud providers posted their strongest results in years: AWS grew 39%, Azure 48%, and Google Cloud 103%. In the third quarter, Amazon poured $77.3 billion into capital expenditure, while Google spent $51.4 billion—both more than double the same period last year. The spenders haven’t cut back a cent.

But the companies expecting to get paid have been knocked to the ground. On Friday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 7.2% in a single day. $AMD dropped 10.9% to close at $504.8, and $QCOM fell 11.1%. AI demand hasn’t changed. The market is selling on fears about AI financing and how profits will be divided, and a single Intel forecast dragged the entire supply chain down with it.

AMD’s earnings report after the close next Tuesday will be the first AI chip report card since this latest plunge. The earnings call is at 5 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday, or 6 a.m. Wednesday in Beijing. The bar isn’t especially high: in August, the company guided for third-quarter revenue of around $13 billion, plus or minus $300 million. The consensus estimate is about $13.1 billion—almost exactly in line with guidance.

So why could the stock still fall? In this kind of market, merely meeting third-quarter targets isn’t enough. The stock will be driven by fourth-quarter guidance and the pace of data center GPU ramp-ups. If guidance is strong, Friday’s 10.9% drop will look like an overreaction. If guidance merely meets expectations, the market may still treat it as a failure.

Qualcomm reports after the close on Wednesday. Its 11% drop this time looks more like collateral damage from Intel: the cycles for phone and PC chips have little to do with cloud providers’ AI spending. Looking at the two earnings reports together should help distinguish whether this selloff is about the AI thesis or simply market sentiment.

The macro backdrop hasn’t helped either. Interest-rate futures put the odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December above 70%. Chip stocks and BTC are now under pressure from the same set of factors. $BTC’s weekend performance can offer a preview of Monday’s risk appetite, but it won’t tell us which way things are headed.

If AMD lowers its fourth-quarter outlook or says data center customers are delaying deployments, this view will need to change—and that’s when earnings estimates will start to come down.

Customers’ wallets are still open, but the stock has already hit its knees. After the close next Tuesday, we’ll see who gets back up first.

#USStocks #AMDEarnings #AIChips

This weekend, BTC is the only major risk asset in the world that’s still trading. It may give us the answer before U.S. stocks open on Monday.

At Friday’s close, the Nasdaq ETF was down about 3.5%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor ETF had fallen nearly 10% in two days, and Intel had dropped almost 30% in a single day. Much of Friday’s selling was driven by investors looking to reduce risk ahead of the weekend, Tuesday’s midterm elections, and Friday’s jobs report. U.S. markets can close, but BTC can’t—so investors looking to cut risk over the weekend have only one place to sell.

As of 11 p.m. Beijing time on Saturday, BTC was trading near $77,272. Thursday’s high was just over $81,000, and Friday’s low was around $76,000. ETH was near $2,245. After more than $1 billion in liquidations across the market on Friday, prices have not made new lows over the past two days.

What I’m watching more closely is one level: Strategy’s average purchase price of about $75,446. $MSTR holds more than 848,000 BTC. The price is now only about 2.4% above that level. It won’t trigger any automatic liquidations, but it is the psychological level the market is watching most closely. If BTC falls below it, headlines about a publicly traded company being underwater will be everywhere, and sentiment could take another hit.

So over the weekend, I’m watching just two things.

First, can BTC hold above $76,000? If it does, that would suggest Friday’s selling pressure has run its course, and U.S. stocks are unlikely to face further pressure from crypto on Monday.

Second, will there be a high-volume break below $75,446 over the weekend? If it breaks decisively, I’ll lower my expectations before Monday’s open rather than try to call the bottom.

I’m leaning optimistic. Leverage was flushed out on Friday, and the 10-year Treasury yield also fell from 5.00% to 4.94%. Rates haven’t risen along with the panic, which makes this drop look more like investors moving to the sidelines ahead of major events. As long as BTC holds over the weekend, the election outcome and a weaker-than-expected jobs report next week could set the stage for a rebound—and it may well begin over the next couple of days.

Markets that stay open over the weekend are often the first to tell the truth.

#Bitcoin #WeekendMarket #USStocks #JobsReport $BTC $ETH

It’s definitely going to rebound hard this Monday! The fundamentals haven’t gotten worse, yet it’s been beaten down this much! It’ll take off after the election!

The harder the sell-off this week, the more tightly the spring is wound for a rebound next week.

First, let’s look at how bad this week’s sell-off was. $SOXX fell nearly 10% in two days, retreating about 20% from its October high, while $SOXL, a 3x leveraged long ETF, dropped about 24.8% in a single day. Google lost about $500 billion in market value in one day, and Intel fell nearly 30% in a day. BTC fell from over $81,000 to below $77,000, while $MSTR dropped about 7.8% and $COIN fell about 10.6%. On Friday, liquidations across the market topped $1 billion, wiping out most highly leveraged long positions.

But several major events hanging over the market have now all played out this week. The Fed’s policy meeting is over, with rates held steady; earnings reports from Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Intel are all in; and even the worst guidance has already been priced in. What markets fear most is the unknown. Now the bad news is out in the open.

Interest rates have actually been supportive this week. The 10-year Treasury yield fell from 5.00% to 4.94%. Yields declined as stocks fell, suggesting this sell-off was mainly driven by deleveraging and investors seeking shelter ahead of the weekend and the election—not by a collapse in fundamentals. Microsoft Azure grew 48% and AWS grew 39%: AI demand is real. What’s being cut is valuation and leverage.

Whether markets can rebound next week depends on three switches.
First, Tuesday’s midterm elections. Once the results are in, uncertainty will be gone, and the money that moved to the sidelines on Friday will need somewhere to go.
Second, Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. If the data is weak, expectations for a December rate hike will be scaled back, Treasury yields and the dollar will retreat, and BTC and tech stocks stand to benefit most.
Third, can BTC hold above $MSTR’s average cost basis of about $75,446? If it does, the weekend sell-off will have been a shakeout. A move back above $80,000 could trigger a very rapid short squeeze.

When leverage has been flushed out, bad news is behind us, and rates aren’t rising, that combination is often the starting point for a sharp rally. BTC trades around the clock, so the weekend will give us an early answer.

But my bullish view comes with conditions. If $QQQ breaks below Friday’s low on Monday, or BTC decisively falls below $75,000, I’ll have to change my view. That would mean this isn’t capitulation—it’s the start of a weakening trend. Being bullish doesn’t mean blindly holding on. No matter how tightly the spring is wound, we still have to wait for it to actually rebound.

When prices fall, it’s about who gets shaken out first. When they rise, it’s about who still has ammunition.

#Bitcoin #USStocks #FederalReserve #NonfarmPayrolls $BTC $ETH

The three major cloud providers delivered the same kind of report card this quarter: legacy businesses are slowing, cash is getting tighter, but AI cloud is growing at its fastest pace in years. $AMZN $MSFT $GOOGL

First, the parts that are slowing. Amazon's online stores revenue grew just 2%, while advertising grew 12%, well below expectations after running around 22% in each of the past few quarters. Microsoft's Windows and Devices revenue fell 22%, with Windows licensing down 27%; it is expected to decline by more than 30% next quarter. Traditional licensing revenue from Office and servers was down about 3% year over year, while growth in paid commercial seats slowed from 7% to 5%. Google's Search revenue grew 12%, missing expectations for the second consecutive quarter. YouTube advertising grew just 9%, and total revenue also came in slightly below expectations.

Now, the parts that are growing fast. AWS grew 39%, accelerating for the sixth consecutive quarter, with $578 billion in remaining performance obligations—more than double year over year. Azure grew 48%, and Microsoft's commercial remaining performance obligations reached $677 billion. Google Cloud generated $30.7 billion in revenue, up 103%, and $11.1 billion in operating profit, more than tripling. Combined, the three companies have more than $1.8 trillion in cloud orders. The money is already committed in contracts; all that remains is delivering the capacity.

Cash flow was the ugliest part of the quarter. Amazon's free cash flow over the past 12 months was negative $42.4 billion, compared with positive $14.8 billion a year ago. Google's quarterly free cash flow was negative $9.1 billion, marking a second consecutive quarter in the red; it has made no buybacks in the past three quarters. Microsoft's quarterly free cash flow was $18.6 billion, still positive, but capital expenditures including finance leases reached $45.2 billion. On a full-year basis, Amazon is looking at about $220 billion in spending, and Google at $195 billion to $205 billion. Both say they will spend substantially more in 2027.

Taken on their own, the income statements in these reports look fine. Amazon's operating income grew 61%, with a record-high margin of 13.9%; AWS alone contributed more than 60% of it. Microsoft's revenue grew 19% and net income grew 32%. Google's revenue grew 25%. Cash is tight because of the pace of spending; their ability to make money is still there.

This is a trade-off: giving up the present for the long term. Cash generated by legacy businesses, plus borrowed money, is all being poured into data centers in exchange for a place in the AI computing market over the next decade. Some say cloud providers are burning cash. The books suggest something more like paying upfront and delivering later: the orders have been signed, but the capacity is still on its way. Once that capacity comes online, depreciation will be spread out, revenue will follow, and the cash-flow gap will narrow.