This weekend, BTC is the only major risk asset in the world that’s still trading. It may give us the answer before U.S. stocks open on Monday.
At Friday’s close, the Nasdaq ETF was down about 3.5%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor ETF had fallen nearly 10% in two days, and Intel had dropped almost 30% in a single day. Much of Friday’s selling was driven by investors looking to reduce risk ahead of the weekend, Tuesday’s midterm elections, and Friday’s jobs report. U.S. markets can close, but BTC can’t—so investors looking to cut risk over the weekend have only one place to sell.
As of 11 p.m. Beijing time on Saturday, BTC was trading near $77,272. Thursday’s high was just over $81,000, and Friday’s low was around $76,000. ETH was near $2,245. After more than $1 billion in liquidations across the market on Friday, prices have not made new lows over the past two days.
What I’m watching more closely is one level: Strategy’s average purchase price of about $75,446. $MSTR holds more than 848,000 BTC. The price is now only about 2.4% above that level. It won’t trigger any automatic liquidations, but it is the psychological level the market is watching most closely. If BTC falls below it, headlines about a publicly traded company being underwater will be everywhere, and sentiment could take another hit.
So over the weekend, I’m watching just two things.
First, can BTC hold above $76,000? If it does, that would suggest Friday’s selling pressure has run its course, and U.S. stocks are unlikely to face further pressure from crypto on Monday.
Second, will there be a high-volume break below $75,446 over the weekend? If it breaks decisively, I’ll lower my expectations before Monday’s open rather than try to call the bottom.
I’m leaning optimistic. Leverage was flushed out on Friday, and the 10-year Treasury yield also fell from 5.00% to 4.94%. Rates haven’t risen along with the panic, which makes this drop look more like investors moving to the sidelines ahead of major events. As long as BTC holds over the weekend, the election outcome and a weaker-than-expected jobs report next week could set the stage for a rebound—and it may well begin over the next couple of days.
Markets that stay open over the weekend are often the first to tell the truth.
#Bitcoin #WeekendMarket #USStocks #JobsReport $BTC $ETH
At Friday’s close, the Nasdaq ETF was down about 3.5%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor ETF had fallen nearly 10% in two days, and Intel had dropped almost 30% in a single day. Much of Friday’s selling was driven by investors looking to reduce risk ahead of the weekend, Tuesday’s midterm elections, and Friday’s jobs report. U.S. markets can close, but BTC can’t—so investors looking to cut risk over the weekend have only one place to sell.
As of 11 p.m. Beijing time on Saturday, BTC was trading near $77,272. Thursday’s high was just over $81,000, and Friday’s low was around $76,000. ETH was near $2,245. After more than $1 billion in liquidations across the market on Friday, prices have not made new lows over the past two days.
What I’m watching more closely is one level: Strategy’s average purchase price of about $75,446. $MSTR holds more than 848,000 BTC. The price is now only about 2.4% above that level. It won’t trigger any automatic liquidations, but it is the psychological level the market is watching most closely. If BTC falls below it, headlines about a publicly traded company being underwater will be everywhere, and sentiment could take another hit.
So over the weekend, I’m watching just two things.
First, can BTC hold above $76,000? If it does, that would suggest Friday’s selling pressure has run its course, and U.S. stocks are unlikely to face further pressure from crypto on Monday.
Second, will there be a high-volume break below $75,446 over the weekend? If it breaks decisively, I’ll lower my expectations before Monday’s open rather than try to call the bottom.
I’m leaning optimistic. Leverage was flushed out on Friday, and the 10-year Treasury yield also fell from 5.00% to 4.94%. Rates haven’t risen along with the panic, which makes this drop look more like investors moving to the sidelines ahead of major events. As long as BTC holds over the weekend, the election outcome and a weaker-than-expected jobs report next week could set the stage for a rebound—and it may well begin over the next couple of days.
Markets that stay open over the weekend are often the first to tell the truth.
#Bitcoin #WeekendMarket #USStocks #JobsReport $BTC $ETH