诸葛投研

Some fans asked me: if I don’t buy this, and I don’t touch that, is there actually any coin trading going on?

My answer is boring—so boring that this post probably won’t get much traffic: yes, I am trading crypto, but basically I’ve only bought $BTC , $BNB , and $SOL . The rest are just “lottery” positions, just messing around. (That’s also why my analysis tries to stay as objective as possible—I don’t need to shout calls to get people to bag-hold for me.)

1. The one I’m down on the most right now is BNB. Since I needed to participate in Alpha’s TGE, I habitually kept holding BNB, which affected my investment judgment—I didn’t manage to trim at the top. So strictly speaking, I don’t even know whether playing Alpha made me lose or profit.

2. BTC and SOL were built up in batches during this round of decline. I think BTC may still drop, but I started averaging in when BTC was already above 70,000. In my view, if a token is destined to go to the moon, then boarding on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau versus boarding in the Tarim Basin—there isn’t much difference. The key is to get on the train.

3. The point is: there are very, very few tokens that can go to the moon. But I believe BTC should be the least controversial one. So my solution is simple: go with assets led by BTC. Decentralized-wise, I look at BTC; centralized-wise, I look at BNB.

4. Of course, my approach is too ordinary. Most people have heard of it. And many people don’t agree with my method—after all, most people come to this space aiming for 100x coins, aiming to turn their lives around in half a year.

5. I just accepted it long ago—I’m not the kind of person who can change my life in half a year. For example, the “dog-chasing and profit contest” that Binance Wallet ends today: as long as you don’t lose money, you can get on the profit leaderboard! What difficulty level do you think “dog chasing” or playing copycats is?

I heard that photos of celebrating National Day tourism in the square have been quite popular— is that true? Let me try it out $BTC

After last night’s non-farm payroll data was released, $BTC surged strongly out of the consolidation range, only to fall back. During the 24-hour clearing window, it briefly exceeded 570 million. One up and one down ended up cutting two groups of people.

The September non-farm number released last night added only 29,000 jobs, far below expectations of 90,000. What’s more, the combined figures for July and August were revised down by 60,000, and July data even turned negative.

When the data came out, the brothers in the group all went wild—cursing, saying the U.S. is cooking the books. But we have to admit that regardless of whether it was falsified, the situation overall improved greatly:

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield slid back to around 5.18, and oil prices are also falling. Risk assets have gotten a breather window. Rate-hike expectations have even been pushed to December.

Managing market expectations—in order to control inflation—is also one of the Federal Reserve’s jobs. Data fabrication, too, can be considered part of the strategy.

So liquidity has become more polarized: BTC spot ETFs saw a $102.7 million inflow on Thursday (with IBIT alone holding up nearly $200 million), ending the outflow streak. $ETH saw outflows for the third consecutive day, with total outflows over three days exceeding $110 million.

Liquidity is thin over the weekend, and combined with the National Day holiday, any market rebound is likely to be on reduced volume—don’t treat a pullback as a reversal.

Today’s nonfarm payroll data has made it seem like it’s being falsified—it's far below expectations.

But whether it’s actually falsified or not doesn’t really matter. What matters is that the U.S. wants to use this signal to lower everyone’s expectations for rate hikes. The difference is simply this: if it’s “falsified,” then it’s subjective and no hike; if it’s not falsified, then it’s objective and no hike.

So interpreting it as a “no rate hike” scenario, and it being good for $BTC , is perfectly reasonable.

The market has already changed the script: it’s no longer about whether we’ll add in October, it’s about whether we can hold out until December.

Yesterday, the 10-year US Treasury yield touched 5.344% intraday—luckily it pulled back again. After the market got startled, it recalibrated pricing.

Now, the probability of holding steady in October is 75.1%, and the probability of adding another 25 basis points in December is 61.3%. That’s why there was this surge of $BTC .

All the data is fully landed. Core PCE hit a new low since February, but the market is strangely no one dares to call a direction—movement is so sideways it’s unnerving:

1. Macroeconomic reversal: Last night ADP added 90,000 jobs, beating expectations with a rebound. It looked like a rate hike was about to be solidified.

Result: Core PCE year-over-year came in at 3.0%, well below expectations. The yields on 2-year U.S. Treasuries fell immediately, and bets on an October rate hike clearly cooled.

That interest-rate selloff in September—seems to have effectively hit the pause button for now. U.S. stock index futures jumped; the Dow and Nasdaq both turned green. AI hardware and storage led the gains.

2. Flows: The <$BTC > ETF saw nine consecutive days of inflows, but daily inflow clearly slowed. The <$ETH > fund ended seven straight days of inflows and turned to net outflows on a single day. The first day of the weekend is a key directional signal.

CoinShares weekly report: Last week, net inflows across the entire industry totaled $3.55 billion, a new intra-year high. BTC took $2.52 billion, and $XRP garnered $92.3 million.

3. On-chain structure: Large holders with more than 10,000 coins accumulated over 41,000 BTC in ten days, pushing their share of holdings back to a six-week high.

Retail traders are watching from the sidelines, while whales are buying. This divergence historically aligns more with a bullish script.

Overall read: In the window after bad news is fully absorbed, direction is being chosen. With holiday liquidity thin, don’t get carried away with positioning.

$BTC finally shows some fluctuation

Haha, it turns out everyone still cares about money.

$BTC has fallen below 83,000

Turns out you can’t pop champagne early—POLY<>U’s competition is this intense…

With such a high turnover rate of $ZEC , is it the big players taking profits, or institutions accumulating?

According to CMC data, spot ZEC ETF saw a net inflow of $284 million in September, and holdings have already accounted for 3.82% of the circulating supply.

A product launched just last month has already absorbed nearly 4% of the market. This pace ranks among the fastest of all new ETFs 😂

It turns out that every coin has its believers.

A line from a group mate today gave me a wake-up call: I’ve been looking too much at short-term K-line charts, and in the process I’ve ignored the bigger direction.

The future upside of $HYPE is indeed very large. With time, it has the potential to sit at the same table with Binance for dinner.

The CEO of Jump has also publicly said that Hyperliquid is the first truly real competitor to $BNB , and that it can replace the CEX narrative to secure the highest level of endorsement. Now Coinbase is routing traffic to HYPE, and Binance has also given up its stubborn insistence on $ASTER , allowing HYPE to list on spot.

Short-term K-line charts do show the price is on the high side, so it isn’t a good entry opportunity. But this is just a question of tactical planning; it doesn’t affect the strategic imagination and upside.

As long as you have patience, holding HYPE could be as comfortable as holding BTC or BNB.

I didn’t realize it until now: there really was no airdrop yesterday! It means Binance really treated POLY as an airdrop 😂

Having only one pure airdrop per week is a bit too little; this kind of gameplay can’t be sustained. Going forward, Alpha benefits may become even more widespread, and will likely be used as a threshold to participate in some Binance activities.

Binance Wallet has added 2 new small activities—kind of a small bonus. I suggest everyone take part:

1. Trade the POLY<>U trading pair. The top 4,000 by trading volume can receive a 25U reward each.

This activity has very high “wear and tear” (high cost/pressure). The multiplier effect is very obvious in the early stage. Later on, if people try to “snipe/steal rankings,” the cost gets pretty high—so it’s not as competitive as usual trading contests.

1) Note: it’s the trading pair between POLY and U, not USDT!

2) First, bind your rebate/commission code: on the Binance app Wallet home page, tap “Invite” → tap “Enter Invitation Code” → enter “ZG666” and confirm. That’s it.

3) Right now, POLY is in a discount phase. Its private placement valuation last month was 21 billion, i.e., it’s worth 21U. Since it’s also during the volume-building period, using POLY to provide liquidity pool yield is quite good.

2. If you hold U in your wallet, you can share the prize pool. The top 10,000 people get 4U each on average, and the top 1,000 get 28U each on average.

I deposited 700U yesterday and I’m ranked 411th, and the activity isn’t too competitive—ordinary players also have a chance.

If you haven’t bound a Binance Wallet invitation code yet, remember to bind one—it can save you 30% on trading fees. See Figure 4 for the operation guide.

$BTC is up this much—Coinbase’s premium index has actually stayed negative for 20 straight days, suggesting that large-scale U.S. buyers still haven’t entered the market?

In other words, the rally above 80,000 is due to U.S. spot funding being absent; it’s being pushed forward mainly by offshore flows and derivatives. So I think these past two days are essentially “pulling in the car” (picking up incoming liquidity), and the upward trend hasn’t ended yet.

Today is the futures expiry date, so I’ll wait and observe. As I said a couple of days ago: if you don’t have a position, it’s recommended to top up to add another 30% of your intended position size.

It looks like it’s about to break below 83,000—can it hold?😂

Today I noticed that those huge whales with tens of millions of dollars on-chain are taking profit, and I’m a bit panicky!

Today, there were 7 wallets worth tens of millions of dollars on-chain that took profit on long positions. Six of them were whales at $BTC , and one was a whale at $ZEC . The total profit-taking amount was $356 million. After clearing out, 4 addresses stopped trading, and the other 3 even opened short positions.

Today the coins I hold are all in the green, but I still have the same optimistic attitude as last night—I think this is a pullback.

To my brothers who missed the entry, why not start averaging down in batches now? My cost of 66k is something I averaged out over the last half year, buying in batches from 80k. The words in the image are meant for mutual encouragement!

1. BTC and the major coins are seeing a 3% retracement. Coins like UNI and $DOGE that I warned about a few days ago have already retraced 10%.

This is very normal. Gains and losses are closely related—high beta essentially means they fall more too, and many altcoins even end up “following the downside but not participating in the upside.”

2. The market’s retracement is the result of multiple negative catalysts stacking up: rate-hike expectations, fresh turbulence in the U.S.-Iran conflict leading to oil prices rising, and U.S. Treasury yields hitting a 20-year high…

But I’m confident, because the bears stepped up late last night—$BTC only fell 3%, which shows that buy-side support is still holding.

3. On the other hand, I need to focus on $ZEC : early tonight, the privacy restrictions take effect. On-chain data shows “smart money” has already started running away in advance. This isn’t just a pullback that follows the broader market—there’s also a negative headline specific to its own ecosystem.

I honestly feel that this move is going backward to pick people up, not a reversal to drive losses down.

Because the three layers of negative factors—sentiment cooling, rate hikes, and the U.S.-Iran situation—stack together, $BTC only dropped 3%. I think that’s very strong!

First negative factor: sentiment cooled. After $BTC finished the short squeeze, the momentum brought by the ensuing short-covering push was already quite weak. The market’s real buy-side demand seems somewhat dried up, and the Fear & Greed Index eased from yesterday’s extreme greed of 78.

Second negative factor: the rate-hike issue has resurfaced. The Fed governor signaled that they may need to raise rates further to ensure a timely return to the 2% inflation target.

And other Fed chairpersons have also shown hawkish stances. The chairs of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Chicago, and others said that bringing inflation down may require further increases in interest rates.

Third negative factor: new developments in the U.S.-Iran negotiations. Iran has just vowed that it will not allow the Strait of Hormuz to be used freely.

Since oil prices have remained elevated, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose to 5.04%, the highest level in 20 years.

With these three negative factors piling up, $BTC only fell 3%. Instead, I feel it’s strong. If you’ve missed out on the opportunity, you might consider starting to scale in and buy the dip from now onward.

I see some people are still stirring up the KLSH thing. Everyone, pay attention: this event has nothing to do with Binance.

Look closely at Figure 1—the original text from Twitter: it’s Flap promoting its next token, KLSH, and then saying that KLSH is supported by the company Paimon.

At the same time, Flap, just to forcefully ride on Binance’s hype, added an extra line on purpose: saying that my partner Paimon is the company that did Binance’s Pre-Acess pPOLY a few days ago.

Got it? It’s purely riding the hype—purely waving the banner to make it look like it’s backed by something. The project itself has absolutely nothing to do with Binance.

So is KLSH a good project? In one word: it’s finished. Look at the cautionary tale in Figure 2.

The last 5-minute bonus period hasn’t even expired yet, and Binance Alpha has come out with another “add 5 more minutes” Alpha points promotion. Just participate in the “football” prediction under the prediction market—total cost 2u (fee slippage wear of 1u + spread slippage wear of 1u):

1. The bonus activity is already live, so you can join now. This time the cost is 2u, where 1u is the trading fee and the other 1u is the spread slippage wear from trading.

2. Bind your wallet referral code in advance to save 30% on fees and reduce slippage wear.

How to bind: Figure 2 is the detailed tutorial. On the Binance App wallet home page, tap "Invite" → tap "Enter referral code" → enter "ZG666" and confirm—done.

3. After binding the referral code, Figure 3 is the task guide: go into the wallet home page banner; it will jump directly to the prediction page. Choose the first topic, buy at the current price with 51u, then sell it right away.

Two cost-saving notes:
（1）The guide uses market-price trading, so there’s nearly 1u in fees. But if you use limit-price trading, the fee is 0. So you can place limit orders via the order book to save the remaining 1u in fees.
（2）Be sure to pick events in the order book where the spread is 0.01. If the order book spread is 0.02, that means your spread slippage wear will be 2u.