All the data is fully landed. Core PCE hit a new low since February, but the market is strangely no one dares to call a direction—movement is so sideways it’s unnerving:
1. Macroeconomic reversal: Last night ADP added 90,000 jobs, beating expectations with a rebound. It looked like a rate hike was about to be solidified.
Result: Core PCE year-over-year came in at 3.0%, well below expectations. The yields on 2-year U.S. Treasuries fell immediately, and bets on an October rate hike clearly cooled.
That interest-rate selloff in September—seems to have effectively hit the pause button for now. U.S. stock index futures jumped; the Dow and Nasdaq both turned green. AI hardware and storage led the gains.
2. Flows: The <$BTC > ETF saw nine consecutive days of inflows, but daily inflow clearly slowed. The <$ETH > fund ended seven straight days of inflows and turned to net outflows on a single day. The first day of the weekend is a key directional signal.
CoinShares weekly report: Last week, net inflows across the entire industry totaled $3.55 billion, a new intra-year high. BTC took $2.52 billion, and $XRP garnered $92.3 million.
3. On-chain structure: Large holders with more than 10,000 coins accumulated over 41,000 BTC in ten days, pushing their share of holdings back to a six-week high.
Retail traders are watching from the sidelines, while whales are buying. This divergence historically aligns more with a bullish script.
Overall read: In the window after bad news is fully absorbed, direction is being chosen. With holiday liquidity thin, don’t get carried away with positioning.
1. Macroeconomic reversal: Last night ADP added 90,000 jobs, beating expectations with a rebound. It looked like a rate hike was about to be solidified.
Result: Core PCE year-over-year came in at 3.0%, well below expectations. The yields on 2-year U.S. Treasuries fell immediately, and bets on an October rate hike clearly cooled.
That interest-rate selloff in September—seems to have effectively hit the pause button for now. U.S. stock index futures jumped; the Dow and Nasdaq both turned green. AI hardware and storage led the gains.
2. Flows: The <$BTC > ETF saw nine consecutive days of inflows, but daily inflow clearly slowed. The <$ETH > fund ended seven straight days of inflows and turned to net outflows on a single day. The first day of the weekend is a key directional signal.
CoinShares weekly report: Last week, net inflows across the entire industry totaled $3.55 billion, a new intra-year high. BTC took $2.52 billion, and $XRP garnered $92.3 million.
3. On-chain structure: Large holders with more than 10,000 coins accumulated over 41,000 BTC in ten days, pushing their share of holdings back to a six-week high.
Retail traders are watching from the sidelines, while whales are buying. This divergence historically aligns more with a bullish script.
Overall read: In the window after bad news is fully absorbed, direction is being chosen. With holiday liquidity thin, don’t get carried away with positioning.