小韭菜环球情报

2026.11.15 · Web3 On-Chain and Crypto Asset Intelligence Brief

Today’s Web3 On-Chain Main Theme: Key Takeaways
Spot ETFs saw $2.35 billion in outflows over two weeks, while key institutional channels recorded 11 consecutive days of withdrawals, creating a liquidity drain as global equities attracted $98 billion. Total liquidations across the market exceeded $1.2 billion in a single day, while on-chain demand fell to cycle lows. The market is caught in a sharp feedback loop between macro capital rotation and the unwinding of derivatives leverage.

Today’s Main Battleground: In-Depth Analysis
Institutional channel outflows and mounting pressure on leveraged treasuries: Spot ETFs recorded cumulative net outflows of $2.35 billion over two weeks, with major institutional channels seeing withdrawals for 11 consecutive trading days. This drove $1.291 billion in long liquidations across the derivatives market over 24 hours. Unrealized losses on holdings at major treasury companies widened to $6.85 billion, while the share of active supply held at a loss exceeded 55%. [In-Depth Analysis] The core driver of this deleveraging wave is the large-scale unwinding of cash-and-carry basis trades by traditional hedge funds. As futures premiums narrowed and hot money shifted toward U.S. equities, arbitrage firms simultaneously sold spot assets and closed short futures positions, putting pressure on spot-market liquidity. This was compounded by the balance-sheet contraction of treasury companies holding large, largely unhedged spot positions, prompting secondary lending protocols and collateral pools to defensively lower collateral ratios and creating a cascading liquidity drain.

Panoramic Quantitative Anomaly Radar
• Diverging accumulation trends: The Ethereum Foundation sold 7,500 ETH over four days, while whale groups bought more than 79,000 ETH over the same period, as large on-chain players engaged in high-volume token rotation at lower levels.
• Protocol credit contraction: A Sky proposal would reduce the debt ceilings for core ETH and wstETH vaults to zero, while stUSDT halted redemptions. Leading lending protocols are proactively cutting off new credit exposure amid the liquidation wave.

Market Positioning and Monitoring Map
Transmission chain: Ongoing ETF redemptions -> force market makers to sell spot assets and close futures basis positions -> put pressure on long positions’ margin at CEXs and trigger a leverage cascade. Over the next 24 to 48 hours, focus on the ability of major CEXs to absorb trading in the $63,000 long-liquidation cluster (with cumulative liquidation intensity of approximately $378 million), and whether daily net flows into Ethereum spot ETFs can turn positive.

Disclaimer: This publication is solely an aggregation and analysis of publicly available global information and objective market data from the past 24 hours. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell, or a basis for taking action. Markets involve risk; please make decisions with caution.

2026.11.15 · Frontline AI and Compute Infrastructure Briefing

Today’s Frontline AI Themes: Core Takeaways
NVIDIA’s sudden governance turmoil and flaws in its equity structure have rapidly evolved into an opportunity for systemic decentralization across the global compute supply chain. Downstream cloud providers long constrained by lock-in to a single ecosystem are using this moment to resume evaluating heterogeneous chips, marking a shift in compute infrastructure from an era of absolute monopoly premiums to one of competition among diverse architectures.

Today’s Main Battleground: In-Depth Analysis
Easing ecosystem barriers and accelerating cloud chip evaluations: NVIDIA lost over $573 billion in market capitalization in a single week and fell below the $4 trillion threshold. Turmoil across multiple levels of management has prompted cloud service giants to accelerate their evaluation of AMD chips and Google’s custom ASICs, with the long-entrenched lock-in effect of proprietary ecosystems showing its first signs of weakening. 【In-Depth Analysis】This upheaval has exposed the governance vulnerabilities that stem from a lack of super-voting rights at major companies, and has also shaken the conviction that hardware and software stacks are inseparably bound. Downstream cloud giants have long struggled with high hardware premiums and supply-chain quota constraints; the governance vacuum now offers a convenient rationale for diversifying their sourcing. While CUDA’s moat is unlikely to be displaced quickly, migration testing for large-model inference and lightweight training workloads is already underway. Over the medium to long term, compute procurement is likely to shift from single-source premium pricing toward cost discipline through multi-chip competition.

Panoramic Quantitative Anomaly Radar
• Power infrastructure: Data center operators are asking giants such as Meta to provide guarantees worth tens of billions of dollars to secure power, making grid capacity a key physical bottleneck to the expansion of frontline compute.
• Agent ecosystem: LangChain raised $300 million in a Series C round at a $3 billion valuation, as capital increasingly flows into enterprise-grade multi-agent orchestration and production-scheduling middleware.

Market Dynamics and Monitoring Map
Causal chain: Governance vacuum at the leader in single-source compute -> prompts downstream cloud providers to begin validating alternative hardware -> diverts valuation premiums and supply-chain liquidity away from semiconductor leaders. Key indicators to monitor over the next 24 to 48 hours: NVIDIA’s battle to hold the $4 trillion market-cap threshold and the skew in options-implied volatility, as well as how institutions with $2.13 billion in holdings are pressuring the board.

Disclaimer: This publication is solely a compilation and logical analysis of publicly available global information and objective market data from the past 24 hours. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell, or a basis for taking action. Markets involve risk; make decisions with caution.

2026.11.15 · Global Macro Daily Brief

Today’s Global Macro Theme: Key Takeaways
Rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar index, compounded by a credit reassessment triggered by a leadership change at a computing-power giant, have become the key cross-asset liquidity headwinds. Markets are taking another look at the cycle of expansion reliant on equity guarantees and capital spending, while capital is showing signs of a defensive flight to assets with large cash reserves.

Today’s Main Battleground: In-Depth Analysis
Reassessment of the computing ecosystem’s circular financing model: A sudden management change at a semiconductor giant prompted 14 Wall Street firms to cut their price targets in succession. The company had previously built a closed-loop financing structure worth over $500 billion through direct equity investments, customer credit guarantees, and advance payments, and was seen as a key source of liquidity for the technology supply chain. [In-Depth Analysis] At its core, the model “uses equity credit to generate orders and expected revenue to support high valuations.” The change in its key leader has cast doubt on the continuity of supply-chain acceptance guarantees, putting the highly leveraged capital spending of upstream and downstream startups at risk of disruption and triggering a credit-contraction effect akin to “quantitative tightening in the industry.” This is not merely a repricing of key-person premium; it also signals that institutional investors are beginning to conduct a comprehensive stress test of the company’s ability to self-fund through off-balance-sheet leverage. The valuation baseline for technology stocks now faces a cross-cycle reassessment of discount rates.

Panoramic Quantitative Anomaly Radar
• Reassessment of defensive value assets: Berkshire Hathaway set a new closing record for the fourth consecutive day, gaining 19% in the fourth quarter to date. As credit comes under pressure in the technology sector, traditional value stocks with substantial cash reserves are showing a pronounced safe-haven appeal.
• Precious metals face discount-rate pressure: COMEX gold closed at $3,887.6, with its rebound running into resistance, and support at $3,820–$3,850 in focus. As the dollar and Treasury yields strengthen, the rigid upward shift in discount rates is weighing on the valuations of non-yielding commodities.

Market Positioning and Monitoring Map
Credit guarantees from technology leaders come under pressure -> Supply-chain credit tightens and valuations are repriced -> Capital flows toward defensive assets with large cash reserves and the U.S. dollar. Over the next 24 to 48 hours, institutions will focus on elevated discount-rate pressure from the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, as well as the resilience of gold’s support at the key $3,820–$3,850 liquidity floor.

Disclaimer: This publication is solely a compilation and logical analysis of global public information and objective market data from the past 24 hours. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell, or a basis for trading decisions. Markets involve risk; please exercise caution when making decisions.

2026.11.14 · Web3 On-Chain and Crypto Asset Brief

Today’s Web3 On-Chain Main Theme: Key Takeaways
Over the past 24 hours, expectations of macroeconomic tightening and the continued absence of U.S. institutional buying have reinforced each other. Six consecutive days of outflows from spot ETFs have intensified the drain on secondary-market liquidity. Downward pressure on assets quickly spread to the on-chain credit layer, prompting lending protocols to cut borrowing caps and treasury firms to deleverage defensively, while derivatives markets saw a concentrated flush-out.

Today’s Main Battleground: In-Depth Analysis
On-chain lending defenses tighten as institutional treasuries deleverage defensively: With Ethereum falling below the $1,900 threshold and spot ETFs recording net outflows for six consecutive days, pressure on the on-chain credit system has intensified. Sky proposed reducing debt ceilings to zero for five types of traditional ETH-collateralized vaults, locking in approximately $376 million in outstanding debt. Ethereum treasury firm BTCS also disclosed that it had sold ETH below cost to maintain the health factor on its Aave borrowing position, with its theoretical liquidation threshold approaching $1,717. [In-Depth Analysis] This signals that downside shocks are spreading beyond liquidations in derivatives alone, reaching the underlying DeFi credit system and treasury balance sheets. Lending protocols are capping new borrowing to prevent bad debt from spreading, while publicly listed treasury firms are forced to sell at a discount to avoid liquidation. With U.S. institutional buying still absent and available market depth sharply reduced, the on-chain credit system is undergoing a dramatic shift from collateral-backed expansion to liquidity-driven contraction and repayment.

Panoramic Quantitative Anomaly Radar
• U.S. buying power: The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has remained negative for 51 consecutive days (at -0.1%), while spot ETFs have seen net outflows of more than $350 million for six consecutive days, reflecting persistently weak buying support from U.S. institutions.
• Derivatives liquidations: Long positions worth $174 million were liquidated across the market in a single hour. On Hyperliquid, 24 whale addresses saw a concentrated $160 million in liquidations. Funding rates turned negative across the board, as highly leveraged longs were flushed out en masse.

Market Positioning and Monitoring Map
Transmission chain: Stronger expectations of macro rate hikes -> net outflows from U.S. institutional ETFs weigh on spot markets -> on-chain collateral ratios are breached, forcing treasury firms to deleverage. Key indicators to monitor over the next 24 to 48 hours: first, whether the negative Coinbase Premium Index narrows; second, the health factors of on-chain lending positions as Ethereum approaches the $1,717 liquidation level.

Disclaimer: This publication is solely an aggregated review and logical analysis of publicly available global information and objective market data from the past 24 hours. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell, or a basis for taking action. Markets involve risk; please make decisions prudently.

2026.11.14 · Frontier AI and Compute Infrastructure Briefing

Today's Frontier AI Main Theme: Key Takeaways
A seismic shake-up in Nvidia's leadership has triggered a repricing of the global compute infrastructure credit system. The market's central tension has shifted from chip supply shortages to the risk of a highly leveraged buyer cycle underpinned by tens of billions of dollars in off-balance-sheet financing guarantees. Credit pressure on capital expenditures is profoundly reshaping bargaining dynamics across the entire industry chain.

Today's Main Battleground: In-Depth Analysis
A power vacuum at a compute giant punctures the off-balance-sheet credit chain: Following the founder's departure, Nvidia's board has begun an executive search for a new CEO, with the market estimating the likelihood of an external successor at 36%. Its business model—providing tens of billions of dollars in financial guarantees for cloud providers' purchases, including residual-value support covering 25% of a $500 billion AI financing vehicle—is facing a comprehensive review. [In-Depth Analysis] The key underlying mechanism that previously supported compute expansion was a closed-loop credit leverage structure built by chip giants through substantial residual-value guarantees and equity swaps. Risk reduction at the governance level is abruptly tightening off-balance-sheet credit backing. Emerging cloud providers that rely heavily on upfront financing to expand capacity will face a liquidity chill, forcing a restructuring of bargaining power across the supply chain, including upstream HBM memory. AI asset valuations are shifting away from a pure compute-power narrative and back toward the hard fundamentals of underlying solvency.

Panoramic Quantitative Anomaly Radar
• Infrastructure leverage under pressure: Regulatory filings show that compute provider Nscale's liabilities surged from $137 million to $5.5 billion in the third quarter, with a quarterly loss of $1.69 billion. The company relies on $2 billion in convertible bonds for support, sharply increasing on-balance-sheet credit risk.
• Capitalization premium for model assets: Anthropic's public offering was more than 6 times oversubscribed. Estimated share capital was raised to 13.116 billion shares, and the pricing range was significantly revised upward—underscoring the scarcity-driven capital premium commanded by top-tier models amid sharp volatility in compute procurement costs.

Market Dynamics and Monitoring Map
Transmission chain: Core governance upheaval and guarantee reviews -> constraints on credit expansion and purchase financing by emerging compute cloud providers -> pressure on valuation multiples for upstream semiconductor HBM and foundry segments. Over the next 24 to 48 hours, institutions will closely monitor the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's resilience in absorbing a key 4% technical decline, as well as whether daily net buying of leveraged ETFs tracking Nvidia can remain above $1 billion.

Disclaimer: This publication is solely an aggregated summary and logical analysis of global public information and objective market data from the past 24 hours. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell, or a basis for trading decisions. Markets involve risk; make decisions with caution.

2026.11.14 · Global Macro Briefing

Today’s Global Macro Narrative: Key Takeaways
U.S. inflation data that came in hotter than expected, combined with a flurry of official statements, has completely reversed expectations for monetary easing. Bets on consecutive rate hikes have reignited, triggering a deep selloff in long-dated U.S. Treasuries. A surging dollar index and soaring discount rates are comprehensively reshaping the pricing anchors and liquidity allocation across global stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities.

Today’s Main Battleground: Deep Dive
U.S. Treasury yields break above 5% as tightening expectations force a global liquidity squeeze: U.S. October PPI posted its largest annual increase in four years, while a series of hawkish comments from monetary officials effectively cemented a December rate hike and opened the door to consecutive tightening moves early next year. The 10-year Treasury yield surged 26 basis points in a week to break above 5.12%, marking the largest weekly selloff in 18 months, while the dollar index hit a one-and-a-half-year high. [Deep Dive] The sharp rise in long-term discount rates highlights the underlying conflict between renewed inflationary pressures and fiscal capacity. Geopolitical shocks and tariff barriers have entrenched inflation, forcing central banks to extend their tightening paths; meanwhile, warnings from senior fiscal officials against excessive rate hikes reflect the competing interests of debt-servicing burdens and monetary contraction. Risk-free rates above 5% have prompted a reassessment of assumptions about ample liquidity, continuing to compress risk-asset valuations and drive global capital back into onshore U.S. dollar markets.

Panoramic Quantitative Anomaly Radar
• Geopolitical oil supply and demand: Iraq’s October crude oil production reached a five-year high of 4.6 million barrels per day. Combined with expectations of a supply surplus, this has weighed on WTI as it tests annual support at $85; however, disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continue to provide a geopolitical premium underpinning energy prices.
• FX intervention alert: Dollar strength has pushed USD/JPY toward the 160 threshold, prompting Japanese officials to issue another verbal intervention warning. A widening U.S.-Japan interest rate differential is intensifying pressure on non-U.S. currencies, significantly increasing risks around offshore liquidity and defensive market positioning.

Market Dynamics and Monitoring Map
Persistent inflation is fueling rate-hike expectations -> driving long-term U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar higher -> broadly weighing on richly valued equities and intensifying liquidity pressures on non-U.S. currencies. Over the next 24 to 48 hours, market participants will focus on the battle around the 5.10% level for the 10-year Treasury yield, the possibility of actual intervention as USD/JPY approaches the 160 threshold, and WTI crude oil’s annual support at $85.

Disclaimer: This publication is solely an aggregation and analysis of publicly available global information and objective market data from the past 24 hours. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell, or a basis for taking action. Markets involve risk; decisions should be made with caution.

2026.11.13 · Web3 On-Chain and Crypto Asset Briefing

Today’s Web3 On-Chain Main Theme: Key Takeaways
Tighter macro liquidity and narrower compliance access are creating a double squeeze. Index providers are removing publicly listed companies with crypto-asset treasuries, breaking the premium logic behind passive fund allocations. At the same time, a record monthly contraction in on-chain stablecoin supply is coinciding with the unwinding of basis trades, accelerating deleveraging across market derivatives and forcing liquidity defenses to retreat.

Today’s Main Battleground: Deep Dive
MSCI’s delisting of crypto treasury companies reshapes passive buying: MSCI announced that, under its screening criteria for non-operating companies, Strategy and Metaplanet will be removed from global indices effective December 1. Major firms such as State Street hold $1.22 billion in these companies, and after the announcement, large holders collectively closed more than $32 million in long positions. [Deep Dive] In effect, this move cuts off the capital flywheel in which issuing equity to buy crypto assets led to passive index inclusion and higher valuations. Traditional index providers have classified these companies as investment funds rather than operating businesses, forcing passive funds that track their benchmarks to mechanically liquidate their holdings before the change takes effect. This not only ends the arbitrage mechanism through which listed companies used their equity premiums to create leveraged buying demand for crypto spot assets, but also severely undermines traditional asset managers’ compliance expectations for gaining indirect exposure through equities, pushing liquidity dynamics back toward spot-market fundamentals.

Market-Wide Quantitative Anomaly Radar
• Liquidity absorption: The supply of major stablecoins plunged by $14.2 billion in 30 days, the largest monthly decline since June 2022. Combined with $1.44 billion in outflows from spot ETFs over five days, this points to systemic depletion of the existing capital base absorbing market supply.
• Leverage and basis: CME leveraged funds’ net short Bitcoin positions fell 89% from their peak to 12,900 BTC, with basis trades almost entirely unwound. Alongside more than $68 million in derivatives liquidations in a single day, deleveraging has left a severe lack of buffers to absorb volatility.

Market Dynamics and Monitoring Map
Transmission chain: Index exclusion of non-operating entities -> suppression of the equity-premium-to-crypto-buying cycle -> withdrawal of secondary-market spot liquidity, compounded by stablecoin contraction that deepens discounts. Over the next 24 to 48 hours, key indicators to watch are: first, the concentration of cumulative long liquidations on major CEXs below $70,000, totaling $622 million; second, whether net stablecoin burns and ETF redemptions begin to ease at the margin.

Disclaimer: This briefing is solely a compilation and logical analysis of publicly available global information and objective market data from the past 24 hours. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell, or a basis for trading decisions. Markets involve risk; make decisions with caution.

2026.11.13 · Frontier AI & Compute Infrastructure Briefing

Today’s Frontier AI Mainline: Key Takeaways
The sudden departure of NVIDIA’s founder has triggered a systemic repricing in the compute market, ending the narrative of a single pivotal figure commanding a premium that had persisted for years. The market’s core tension is shifting from a straightforward battle for capacity to the unraveling of tightly coupled hardware-software ecosystems, deeper compliance scrutiny, and the diversion of demand toward in-house chips.

Today’s Main Battleground: Deep Dive
Leadership change at a compute giant punctures the key-person premium and circular ecosystem: NVIDIA announced that its founder, who had led the company for 33 years, is stepping down from all management roles. The CFO will serve as interim leader while a successor is selected. The company shed over $600 billion in market value in a single day, five-year CDS spreads rose sharply, and compliance scrutiny continues to intensify. [Deep Dive] NVIDIA had previously leveraged its founder’s formidable personal influence to build a closed-loop capital network: “invest ecosystem profits—lock in compute through buybacks—maintain pricing power.” The leadership change puts business strategy at risk of defensive retrenchment, lowering customers’ tolerance for hardware premiums and their dependence on the CUDA ecosystem. This is accelerating the shift among major customers toward in-house ASICs and second-source suppliers. A systemic restructuring of hardware windfall profits and valuation benchmarks is now irreversible.

Panoramic Quantitative Anomaly Radar
• Capitalization of leading models: Anthropic’s public offering was oversubscribed sixfold, with its target valuation raised to $1 trillion, underscoring the caution of private-market investors toward premiums amid liquidity disruptions.
• Monetization pressures on emerging cloud providers: Nebius’s third-quarter revenue surged 571% year over year to $981 million, but its share price fell more than 16% as capital expenditure climbed, highlighting the heavy asset-cost absorption burden facing compute resellers.

Market Dynamics & Monitoring Map
Causal chain: Governance turmoil at a leading hardware company -> undermines expectations for capital-spending expansion and valuation premiums -> pressures valuations and credit-spread liquidity among emerging cloud providers. Over the next 24 to 48 hours, institutions will be watching whether NVIDIA’s five-year CDS spread breaks above 15 basis points, as well as the rate of change in the $535 million of open interest in on-chain contracts.

Disclaimer: This publication is solely an aggregated review and logical analysis of global public information and objective market data from the past 24 hours. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell, or a basis for any transaction. Markets involve risk; please make decisions prudently.

2026.11.13 · Global Macro Market Briefing

Today’s Global Macro Theme: Key Takeaways
U.S. core inflation has exceeded expectations for consecutive months, prompting markets to raise their expectations for the terminal rate. Markets are now pricing in 87 basis points of rate hikes over the coming year. Long-term Treasury yields have broken above 5.10%, while weak demand at a long-bond auction has driven the dollar to a one-and-a-half-year high, putting discount-rate pressure on gold and equities.

Today’s Main Battleground: A Deeper Look
An inflation rebound and weak Treasury auction sparked a discount-rate storm: U.S. core CPI rose 0.3% month over month in October, exceeding expectations for the third consecutive month and pushing rate-hike pricing to 87 basis points. The Treasury’s $25 billion 30-year bond auction drew a high yield of 5.441%, with a wider tail. The 10-year yield rose above 5.11%, while spot gold plunged $112 in a single day, breaking below $3,875. [A Deeper Look] At its core, this reflects the dual pressure of an expanding fiscal deficit and a reassessment of monetary tightening. With the federal deficit reaching $404 billion in October, buyers are demanding a higher term premium. The resulting surge in pressure on primary dealers has tightened liquidity. A risk-free rate breaking new highs directly weighs on non-yielding assets, accelerating cross-asset flows back into high-yielding U.S. dollars.

Panoramic Quantitative Anomaly Radar
• FX defense line: The U.S. Dollar Index has climbed to a one-and-a-half-year high, while USD/JPY is nearing the 160.00 level. A widening U.S.-Japan interest-rate differential is adding to pressure on the yen, and markets are closely watching for potential official intervention at this level.
• Energy standoff: U.S. crude inventories surged by 4.657 million barrels in the latest week, far exceeding expectations for a 1.109-million-barrel draw. The tug-of-war between inventory builds and shifting geopolitical risk premiums has kept Brent and WTI fluctuating widely around key moving-average ranges.

Market Positioning and Monitoring Map
Core transmission chain: Persistent inflation and a wave of Treasury supply -> long-term real Treasury yields break new highs -> global dollar liquidity tightens, weighing on risk assets and gold valuations. Key indicators to watch over the next 24 to 48 hours: ① whether the 10-year Treasury yield consolidates around 5.10%; ② positioning in USD/JPY around 160.00 and any signals of official intervention.

Disclaimer: This publication is solely a compilation and logical analysis of publicly available global news and objective market data from the past 24 hours. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell, or a basis for taking action. Markets involve risk; please make decisions with caution.

2026.11.12 · Web3 On-Chain and Crypto Asset Briefing

Today’s Web3 On-Chain Main Theme: Key Takeaways
Large balances held in exchange cold wallets and net spot ETF flows show macro-level correlation, while leveraged lending liquidations and position turnover intensify. Liquidity has diverged significantly between major tokens and long-tail assets.

Today’s Main Battleground: In-Depth Analysis
Centralized security concerns trigger more than $640 million in net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs in a single day: Following a hack on a leading trading platform, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $643.2 million in net outflows in one day, bringing monthly net outflows to $516 million. [In-Depth Analysis] Over-the-counter capital flowing through regulated channels is extremely sensitive to custody and clearing risks. Institutional investors are adopting a “zero-tolerance” redemption strategy, rapidly transmitting the centralized credit crisis to the spot settlement side.

Panoramic Quantitative Anomaly Radar
• Cross-chain asset circuit breaker: Threshold has urgently suspended tBTC minting and redemptions, with 4,320 BTC held in its treasury to guard against a bank run.
• Gradual resumption of withdrawals: Binance has resumed withdrawals for some assets on the DOGE and OP networks, using segmented isolation to ease short-term settlement pressures.

Market Dynamics and Observation Map
Key areas to watch in on-chain market dynamics include the liquidity absorption capacity at key support levels for major assets, as well as derivatives funding rates and incremental capital flows into regulated RWAs.

Disclaimer: This publication is solely an aggregation and analysis of publicly available global information and objective market data from the past 24 hours. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell, or a basis for taking action. Markets involve risk; please make decisions prudently.

2026.11.12 · Frontline AI and Compute Infrastructure Briefing

Today’s Frontline AI: Core Themes
The frontline AI and compute sectors are undergoing a systemic shift from a standalone Capex narrative toward supply-chain governance and binding compliance constraints. Nvidia’s governance storm is weighing on hardware premiums, while the accelerating capitalization of large models and the boom in compute leasing are creating a divergent counterbalance, driving a profound reconfiguration of liquidity across the industry chain.

Today’s Main Battleground: In-Depth Analysis
Nvidia’s governance storm and the revaluation of the compute supply chain: Amid an internal conduct investigation and scrutiny of overseas chip transfers, Nvidia’s board plans to meet to assess the leadership team’s future and has hired an independent outside law firm to conduct an investigation. Its share price fell by as much as about 9% after hours, while some institutions slashed their price targets by 60% to $200. [In-Depth Analysis] This is not merely a shake-up in executive governance; it has also shattered the certainty premium long enjoyed by the foundations of compute infrastructure. As legislation and export reviews on cross-border compute flows tighten across the board, the board’s swift intervention is essentially an effort to counter geopolitical compliance risks through stringent internal controls and prevent sovereign-level penalties from disrupting the company’s commercial operations. At the same time, downstream customers are accelerating rack decoupling and migrating underlying large-model code across chips. Together, these compliance and engineering shifts are eroding CUDA’s moat and forcing the market to reprice supernodes at a discount.

Panoramic Radar of Quantitative Market Moves
• Capitalization siphoned by model giants: Anthropic has launched a public offering at a valuation of nearly $90 billion, attracting subscriptions several times the amount on offer. Management expects long-term operating margins to exceed 35%, drawing cash away from mega-cap tech stocks.
• Compute cloud reaches a commercialization inflection point: CoreWeave’s quarterly revenue surged 168% year over year. Its compute capacity is nearly sold out through 2027, and it expects to turn profitable in the first half of 2028. Shares jumped more than 24% after hours, reinforcing confidence in cloud infrastructure’s ability to deliver with a high degree of certainty.

Market Dynamics and Monitoring Map
Executive governance and export review disruptions -> erode the monopoly premium on compute hardware -> drive capital toward high-growth model IPOs and reliable cloud compute. Over the next 24 to 48 hours, closely monitor the timing of Nvidia’s board’s special resolution and the release of the investigation’s scope, as well as the premium at which Anthropic pre-market derivatives trade relative to the IPO cap (currently about 37%) and the level of demand they can absorb.

Disclaimer: This publication is solely an aggregation and analysis of publicly available global information and objective market data from the past 24 hours. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell, or a basis for taking action. Markets involve risk; decisions should be made with caution.

2026.11.12 · Global Macro Market Intelligence Briefing

Today’s Global Macro Theme: Core Outlook
U.S. core inflation stalled at elevated levels for the third consecutive month in October, completely reversing expectations for monetary easing and significantly extending expectations for the scale and duration of further Fed tightening. Combined with the heightened risk of a second wave of energy-driven inflation amid geopolitical maneuvering in the Middle East, this has triggered a dramatic repricing of discount rates across global assets, prompting hedge funds to carry out a risk-off liquidation rarely seen in the past decade.

Today’s Main Battleground: In-Depth Analysis
Stalled core inflation is reshaping the interest rate outlook, triggering the largest global risk-off liquidation in a decade: U.S. core CPI rose 0.3% month over month in October for the third consecutive month. Institutional forecasts have pushed the timing of rate cuts back to the end of 2027, while derivatives markets have fully priced in a December rate hike, fueling aggressive discussions of a 50-basis-point increase. Hedge funds launched their most severe wave of long-position liquidations in more than a decade during the first week of November. 【In-Depth Analysis】The pass-through of high oil prices into core services has completely undermined expectations for falling inflation, while weaker Fed forward guidance has widened the dispersion in terminal-rate pricing. The long-end discount-rate benchmark is shifting systematically higher, severely eroding returns on highly valued assets with heavy capital expenditure needs, such as AI infrastructure. A strong dollar is also siphoning liquidity across markets, forcing leveraged capital to contract defensively.

Panoramic Quantitative Anomaly Radar
• Geopolitical energy supply: Brent crude climbed to $93.90 as Middle East peace talks stalled and shipping through the strait was disrupted. Refined-product exports have recovered to just 35%, and rebounding energy costs are intensifying the pressure from imported second-wave inflation worldwide.
• Sovereign reserve realignment: Global central banks purchased more than 321 tonnes of gold in the third quarter, the fifth-largest quarterly increase on record. Amid persistently high long-term interest rates and the normalization of geopolitical tensions, sovereign funds are continuing to replace traditional fiat reserves to hedge against credit risk.

Market Dynamics and Monitoring Map
Transmission chain: Geopolitical deadlock pushes up the crude oil premium -> raises inflation expectations and reinforces the rate-hike path -> drives discount rates higher and triggers cross-asset risk reduction. Key indicators to monitor over the next 24 to 48 hours: the USD/JPY intervention threshold of 159.00, WTI crude’s consolidation level at $88.00, and the delayed change in EIA crude inventories.

Disclaimer: This publication is solely an aggregation and logical analysis of publicly available global news and objective market data from the past 24 hours. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell, or a basis for any trading decision. Markets involve risk; please exercise caution when making decisions.

2026.11.11 · Web3 On-Chain and Crypto Asset Briefing

Today’s Web3 On-Chain Main Theme: Key Takeaway
Expectations of macroeconomic tightening and on-chain capital redemptions are reinforcing each other, keeping underlying liquidity across the market under sustained pressure. As net redemptions of major stablecoins over the past 60 days hit a new period high, core on-chain lending systems have begun a defensive deleveraging process, proactively shedding junior collateral and driving on-chain credit to concentrate increasingly in native assets.

Today’s Main Battleground: In-Depth Analysis
Aave V3 proposes removing $1.33 billion in collateral: The risk management team has submitted a governance proposal to phase out approximately $1.33 billion in collateral from Ethereum Aave V3’s core market, aiming to purify the assets in its core pools. 【In-Depth Analysis】This defensive cleanup reflects deep-seated liquidity anxiety at the foundation of DeFi lending. As stablecoins continue to flow out of the market and secondary-market redemption depth diminishes, liquidation slippage risks for non-native and long-tail collateral can grow nonlinearly in extreme market conditions, easily translating into bad debt for protocols. Risk managers are willing to sacrifice reported TVL and lending interest revenue to push through the purification of core pool assets. At its heart, this is a toxicity-removal and risk-avoidance mechanism for lending protocols as macro liquidity recedes. The proposal will force leveraged carry positions worth more than $1 billion to close or migrate to junior isolated pools, deepening liquidity discounts on derivative assets and further accelerating the contraction of on-chain credit toward native underlying assets.

Comprehensive Quantitative Anomaly Radar
• Stablecoin redemption outflows: USDT’s market capitalization has fallen by a net $6.6 billion over the past 60 days, the largest decline in the current period. This reflects net redemptions through offshore fiat conversion channels, while on-chain base buying power and liquidity buffers continue to shrink.
• On-chain position unwinding: Long-term holder SOPR has fallen to 0.94 and remained inverted for eight consecutive days, indicating that deeply committed holders are transferring at a loss. The structure of unrealized gains among existing holders is undergoing substantial deflation and forced turnover.

Market Dynamics and Monitoring Map
Strengthening expectations of macro rate hikes -> accelerating offshore stablecoin redemptions -> forcing leading lending protocols to tighten collateral exposure and putting pressure on long-tail asset liquidity. Over the next 24 to 48 hours, institutions will focus on two key indicators: first, the secondary-market premium or discount on USDT redemptions and the pace of reserve outflows; second, the pace of deleveraging and collateral removals in Aave’s core market, along with slippage thresholds for deep liquidity on leading DEXs.

Disclaimer: This publication is solely an aggregation and logical analysis of global public information and objective market data from the past 24 hours. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell, or a basis for trading decisions. Markets involve risk; make decisions with caution.

2026.11.11 · Frontier AI and Compute Infrastructure Insider Brief

Today’s Frontier AI Main Theme | Core Take
The AI sector is shifting from competition over individual algorithms to a capital-intensive alliance ecosystem. Leading model developers are preparing trillion-dollar public offerings, while forming a $26 billion capital loop with upstream chip and wafer manufacturers. Meanwhile, highly leveraged expansion in compute infrastructure is driving divergent asset write-downs, with the entire industry focused on real commercial returns.

Today’s Main Battleground | In-Depth Analysis
Anthropic races toward a trillion-dollar IPO, backed by a $26 billion cornerstone investment loop from industry giants across the value chain: Anthropic disclosed an IPO price range of $70 to $78 per share and plans to issue 825 million shares. Underwriters are considering raising the price to achieve a valuation exceeding $1.5 trillion. Seven industry giants, including Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, and TSMC, are reportedly planning to jointly invest $26 billion through private placements at the offering price. 【In-Depth Analysis】This marks the evolution of generative AI into a closed-loop capital alliance built jointly by foundries, chipmakers, and cloud giants. The investment is more than an equity stake: it directly ties liquidity to agreements for absorbing advanced computing capacity, converting the investors’ own capital expenditure into equity and purchase commitments to the model developer. However, this valuation is based on an aggressive long-term model projecting revenue to exceed $600 billion by 2030. This deeply ties the balance sheets of companies across the value chain to a single entity, significantly narrowing the system’s margin for error.

Panoramic Quantitative Anomaly Radar
• Resilience in compute hosting: AI cloud provider CoreWeave reported third-quarter revenue of $3.66 billion, up 168% year over year, while its backlog climbed to $132.5 billion—reflecting continued strong demand from large customers for long-term commitments to compute clusters.
• Diverging infrastructure write-downs: SoftBank posted a quarterly net loss of $7.1 billion and recorded a $3.7 billion write-down on non-refundable prepayments for data center equipment. This confirms that indiscriminate heavy-asset expansion and mismatches in power availability schedules are accelerating liquidity pressures on tail-end institutions.

Market Dynamics and Monitoring Map
The causal chain is: cornerstone investment by industry giants in a trillion-dollar IPO -> siphoning liquidity from the public market for secondary-market tech stocks -> intensifying discounts on compute-hosting debt and revaluations of depreciation on heavy assets. Over the next 24–48 hours, institutions will focus on whether the IPO’s final price guidance exceeds the $78 valuation ceiling, and on the depth of acceptance and support for pre-market derivative contracts at the $1,585 threshold.

Disclaimer: This publication is solely an aggregation and analysis of publicly available global information and objective market data from the past 24 hours, together with logical inferences. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell, or a basis for trading decisions. Markets involve risk; make decisions with caution.

2026.11.11 · Global Macro Daily Brief

Today’s Global Macro Theme: Core Outlook
U.S. core inflation rose more than expected month over month, upending expectations of a policy pivot. Price pressures are spreading across the services sector, directly triggering a sharp increase in expectations for monetary tightening and a dramatic single-day swing in Treasury yields. The rising probability of aggressive rate hikes this year is driving a fundamental repricing of valuation discount rates across global asset classes.

Today’s Main Battleground: In-Depth Analysis
Inflation resurgence fuels bets on a 50-basis-point rate hike: U.S. core CPI rose 0.3% month over month in October, bringing the three-month annualized rate to 3.7%. This drove the two-year Treasury yield up 19 basis points in a single day to 4.75%, while the probability of a 50-basis-point rate hike in December jumped to 15.3%. [In-Depth Analysis] Inflation has now shifted from an exogenous energy shock to endogenous, persistent price pressures. AI capital expenditure is pushing up input costs, while a resilient labor market is helping inflation form a second bottom and rebound. The coordinated hawkish shift by monetary authorities aims to curb stretched market valuations and overheated demand by raising discount rates, forcing investors to reassess the endpoint of monetary tightening. This has triggered sharp moves in the yield curve and a resurgence in dollar strength, leaving global cross-market liquidity facing a new round of structural tightening.

Panoramic Quantitative Anomaly Radar
• Long-end yield demand test: The Treasury auctioned $42 billion in 10-year notes at a 5.02% yield, with a 1-basis-point tail, signaling marginally weaker demand at the long end and a retest of the key 5% discount-rate level.
• Crude oil premium rapidly erodes: Brent crude fell below $90 per barrel to $89.66, while API crude inventories surged by 9 million barrels in a single week. The rapid fading of geopolitical risk premiums is weighing on energy prices.

Market Positioning and Monitoring Map
Core inflation rebound -> higher terminal-rate expectations and Treasury discount rates -> pressure on global equities and precious metals liquidity. Over the next 24–48 hours, institutional positioning will focus on two quantitative thresholds: whether the two-year Treasury yield can stabilize at 4.75%, and the strength of the 10-year Treasury yield’s test of the 5.00% level.

Disclaimer: This publication is solely a compilation and logical analysis of publicly available global information and objective market data from the past 24 hours. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer to buy or sell, or a basis for any trading decisions. Markets involve risk; make decisions with caution.