刘小伍

Down 13% in $ETH 30 days; ETF outflows hit $110 million in a single day

Current price: $2,314 (24h: -1.14%)

The price is hovering just 1.4% above the 30-day low of 2,281, and it’s been grinding around there for the past two days. The funding rate is positive at 0.0021%: the price is falling, but it’s the longs who are paying.

A positive funding rate means longs are still willing to pay to hold on to their positions.

The longer they hold out, the more costs pile up as they’re charged every eight hours. Time is on the shorts’ side.

Spot markets are a different story. On October 22, U.S. spot ETH ETFs saw $110 million in outflows. They bought actual ETH, and when they leave, they’re selling actual ETH too.

The people holding on in ETFs and futures aren’t the same crowd.

ETH is down 13% over 30 days, while BTC is down less than 5% over the same period. The difference is ETH’s own leverage getting unwound.

The current price is still about 8% below the 30-day average trading price, so people who entered over the past month haven’t broken even yet.

I think there’s still more downside ahead. First, let’s see if 2,275 holds.

#ETH

$45.38 million moved into exchanges in two days; $WLD volume at 0.8x

Current price: $0.438 (24h: -5.52%)

The price fell to $0.4381 today, just 1.5% above the 30-day low of $0.432. I think the $0.43 level will be the first to break.

The bearish case comes down to cost basis.

The current price is 16.6% below the average trading cost over the past 30 days. Nearly everyone who bought in over the past month is underwater, so selling pressure from people looking to break even will emerge whenever the price reaches the cost-basis zone.

The three-day average volume is 0.8x the previous 20-day average, about normal, with no sign of anyone stepping in with higher-volume buying.

An institution that invests in both Aave and WLD transferred about $45.38 million worth of tokens to multiple CEXs over two days, including 35.1 million WLD;

The Worldcoin team wallet also deposited 10 million tokens into OKX.

These tokens have reached exchanges and could turn into sell orders at any time in the short term.

#WLD

$ENA up 8.97%, with leverage barely moving

Trading at $0.21, up 8.97% in 24 hours

The average volume over the past three days was only 0.9 times the usual level, yet the price held just above $0.21.

With no volume coming in, leverage isn’t what’s driving the price up.

The Bollinger Bands have narrowed to the lower end of their recent range. Volatility is contracting, but direction has yet to emerge.

Liquidations totaled $18 million, against a market cap of $2.8 billion—there’s virtually no leverage.

There’s no sign of leveraged funds in this rally.

It closed at $0.221 on October 21, with volume reaching 1.4 times the usual level—the only genuine volume spike in these eight days.

The next day, it surged to $0.226 before being knocked back down.

A volume-backed rally followed by a pullback the next day: the move hasn’t played out, and the price has now retreated to near its starting point.

$0.23 is the high of this rebound. Within the $0.174–$0.295 range of the past 30 days, it’s roughly in the middle—not near the upper end.

Daily price swings are still close to 10%. With moves of this magnitude, breaking through a level and then falling back is common; confirmation requires looking at the close and volume.

First, watch $0.17 to the downside.

The intraday low of $0.174 on October 19 was the only time this cycle that the price tested that area. In the six days since, it hasn’t fallen below $0.184. On the day Hayes sold off 14 million ENA, buyers absorbed that supply too.

My inclination is that the price will first test $0.21, then fall to $0.17 to find support.

#ENA

$SKHY Goldman says chip valuations imply a 65% drop in earnings

$141, 24h rolling +2.36%

The daily MACD has formed a golden cross below the zero line, with the red bars expanding for nine straight days. The RSI is only 38, still in the weak range.

But trading volume behind this move is shrinking, not growing. On October 22 it was still 2.5 times the average; over the past two days, it has fallen to just 0.6 and 0.2 times.

Institutions are moving in the opposite direction.

Goldman cut its KOSPI target to 9,000, citing, among other things, that current chip stock valuations imply a 65% decline in earnings. The report came just days before Samsung and SK hynix were due to report results.

I don't think this is a trend reversal.

Volume at 40% isn't enough to support a change in direction. This looks more like a rebound after selling pressure had already run its course.

SK hynix makes DRAM and HBM, and its revenue tracks AI server procurement. These are exactly the areas the report is targeting.

Whether 65% is accurate will have to be tested against the actual figures in the earnings reports. For now, the market action only shows that no one is willing to bid prices up before results are announced.

The level to watch next is 127.59.

This is the lowest point of October's pullback and also near the bottom of the 30-day range. If it breaks, this consolidation will turn into a bearish continuation pattern.

On the upside, the falling medium-term moving average is pressing down near 149. If prices can't reclaim it, a rebound is just a rebound.

$SKHY

$PEPE Up 19% in seven days, but the funding rate is still stuck at 0.01%

Current price: $0.00000474, 24h +5.36%

PEPE pushed above the upper Bollinger Band today, with the daily chart showing a clean upward move.

The money behind this rally looks more like spot buying—there’s no sign of leveraged chasing, and the derivatives market is far too quiet.

The funding rate and open interest tell the story when viewed together: open interest isn’t small, and both sides are actively competing, yet the funding rate is just 0.01%. Neither side is adding to its position.

So this rally hasn’t built up a crowded, fee-paying long position. If the price turns down, there’ll be less fuel for a cascade of liquidations, so any pullback is more likely to be a slow grind.

The whale angle fits: a transfer of 72 trillion PEPE has drawn attention back to large holders, with speculation about whether Justin Sun is positioning himself. There are also reports of whales scooping up small-cap coins.

The daily MACD crossed bullish three days ago, with DIF above DEA. The histogram has printed higher for five consecutive days and is above the zero line—this points to strengthening, not exhaustion;

the 20-day moving average’s five-day slope has just turned upward. The trend is holding, but there isn’t much of a cushion.

The resistance level being watched above is 0.0000050, another 5.6% higher. First, it needs to clear 0.0000048, where the rally stalled on October 21.

I’m betting it will first test 0.0000050. If it holds above 0.0000048, I’ll keep holding;

#pepe

$SPCX A $3.5 trillion merger review is under discussion, and the stock is down 5.26%

Currently $148, 24h -5.26%

Most people see this bearish candle and immediately blame the market action. But the thing to watch today is something else: the board is moving forward with a merger review involving $3.5 trillion worth of assets, including electric vehicles and orbital launch operations.

After the news broke, the stock didn’t rally. Instead, it surged in premarket trading on the most recent trading day, then gave back those gains during the session, forming a solid red candle.

This is a textbook case of good news being sold first. Who’s selling doesn’t matter; what matters is that the news failed to support the price.

Looking back from the perspective of the earnings report, at the October 20 earnings call, Musk himself described a merger as “a good idea,” saying it could bring together software development, chip design, robotics, and connectivity. He also mentioned that the Terafab factory would begin mass production in 2028, but would only say that he “can’t reveal all the details.”

Those comments are a plus on an earnings call, but the market wants current-quarter cash flow, not a story about production capacity in 2028. The stock’s response is clear.

Another thread is the military launches mentioned in the news that same day: SpaceX reportedly walked away from three military satellite launches, with no competing bids. This highlights how few launch providers the Pentagon can choose from.

That’s an endorsement of SpaceX’s bargaining power.

Volatility indicators back up the nature of today’s bearish candle.

Bollinger Band width is 22.2%, near a recent high, and the bands are widening rather than narrowing.

When the bands widen as the price moves down, it usually isn’t the night before a breakout; it means the direction has already been chosen and the move is playing out. So I don’t think this is a false dip.

The current price is 24% of the way up within the Bollinger Bands, still some distance from the lower band around $140. It hasn’t reached an extreme level.

Looking at the structure, the current price is 21% of the way up the range of $140 to $176 over the past 30 days, near the low end.

The 30-day VWAP is $155, and the current price is 4.2% below this trading-cost benchmark. That means the average buyer over the past month is now underwater, making this cost level the first hurdle on the way up.

My view is clear: this decline isn’t over yet. The next stop is the recent 12-day low of $140.40, about 5% below the current price. The 7-day return is still up 1.68%, and volume has risen to 1.6 times its usual level. A high-volume decline is likely to have further room to squeeze lower.

$SPCX

$PUMP Price range 10.8%, volume only 0.8x the usual level

24h -6.60%, current price $0.00467

When prices fall without a corresponding rise in volume, it’s usually not money pulling out—it’s that there are fewer buyers stepping in.

Today’s bearish candle fits that pattern.

It started on October 20, when Pump.fun brought Pre-IPO tokens onto the platform. The next day, it filled in the details: there are eight companies in total, including OpenAI and Anthropic.

Those tokens aren’t equity; they only offer economic exposure, and their value depends on valuation expectations.

For the platform, this creates another potential source of fees, but it’s still unclear whether that will translate into actual fee revenue.

Today’s pullback came on average volume, suggesting sellers aren’t in a hurry. What’s really missing is buying demand.

In a thinly traded market, prices are less sensitive to capital flows. One candle can do the work of several days elsewhere, making false breaks of key levels more likely.

The midpoint between this month’s high and low is around 0.005. The current price is still below it. If a rebound reaches that level without volume backing it, it likely won’t hold above it.

The most likely path from here is a bounce toward 0.005 that gets rejected, followed by a continued drift toward this month’s low.

#pump

$ZEC Block time cut from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, but the price hasn’t budged

Price at $1,216 (24h: -6.48%)

Taking 60% of fees out of circulation is a much bigger deal than speeding up block production.

The proposal itself says the final activation parameters still need to be implemented. November 5 is currently just a target, not a date set in stone.

With the date still uncertain, not much money will be willing to get in early.

Today, the price has basically given back the gains from that 8.5% green candle three days ago.

Despite such a major change, trading volume hasn’t shown much enthusiasm: the average volume over the past three days is on par with the previous 20 days. There was no volume spike on the way down or up—it’s just existing holders trading back and forth.

The funding rate is hovering around zero, and open interest is nothing special. Today’s drop looks more like early winners taking profits; there’s little sign of leveraged liquidations.

The two daily moving averages were almost touching. Now that the price has slipped below them, that bit of short-term support has turned into a ceiling.

For the price to move higher, it first needs to reclaim both moving averages before 1368 comes into play. That’s the high from the past 12 days, and there are still trapped positions up there.

A move above 1368 would invalidate the bearish scenario outlined below.

On the node side, the issue causing Zebra to stop syncing was fixed over the past couple of days. The team says the fix landed ahead of the NU7 stable release.

It’s good work, but its impact on price will be gradual.

My view is that the price will keep grinding below these two moving averages. If it can’t break through, it’ll retreat toward the monthly low, with little meaningful support along the way.

#zec

$SPCX SpaceX fair value cut to 222.71

Currently $155, down 4.74% in 24 hours

Its strongest week in more than three months, and one bearish candle today wiped out all the gains it had built up.

Volume over the past three days was 1.7 times that of the previous 20 days. Today’s volume was distribution volume.

The pressure came from Tesla: quarterly profits fell, while the company is also discussing a merger with SpaceX. Both stocks slid before the market opened.

Morningstar raised Tesla’s fair value from 450 to 475, citing stronger FSD adoption and lower spending assumptions. That news didn’t lift the stock premarket.

Investors are focused on profits; the story comes second.

For SpaceX, the model price was cut from 227.54 to 222.71. The point of disagreement is growth risk.

Some have calculated that it would take decades for this price to be realized. Morningstar puts the reuse of the upper stage at the end of 2028.

Today’s sell-off wasn’t driven by the investors focused on valuation. It was a combination of the merger story losing steam and traders taking profits after a week of gains.

167 is the high from the past two weeks. The rebound ran out of steam when it reached that level.

Unless it can break above that level, the bounce is just a recovery. If it closes above 167, my bearish view no longer holds.

140 is the low for the month. If it breaks below that, the month’s trading range will be completely invalidated.

The more likely next move is a test of 140. Any rebound will have to wait until the shares bought by those who chased the rally are absorbed.

$SPCX

$IOST Down a third in one day, yet still up 10% net over seven days

Trading at $0.000912, down 33.92% in 24 hours

It’s too early to talk about a bottom.

This drop wiped out the leverage built up over the past seven days. The price is still nearly 30% above its monthly low, so there’s room to fall if it heads lower.

IOST is a public blockchain launched in 2018, focused on high TPS. Its market cap is just over $30 million, and it ranks outside the top 600.

Sequoia invested early on, so its foundations aren’t bad. But the market is tiny, and it doesn’t take much money to push the price up or dump it.

Trading volume over the past three days was more than 100 times that of the previous 20 days, as the price retreated all the way from its monthly high.

This much volume alongside a bearish candle points to distribution.

The funding rate is negative, so crowded shorts are paying to stay in their positions. The more crowded the shorts get, the more likely a bounce comes first—so don’t expect a straight drop.

If the rebound reaches the round-number level of 0.001 but can’t break above it or hold there, don’t expect much upside;

If it does hold above that level, my bearish view is invalidated.

Next, it’ll probably bounce first, get rejected at that level, then head lower to test the lows around the start of the month. Expect some back-and-forth along the way.

#IOST

$SNXX Current price: $9.68 (24h -9.53%)

Super Micro Computer raised its full-year revenue guidance to $18.5 billion–$19.5 billion and also said gross margins should expand, yet its stock fell 6.69% today. Earnings guidance up, stock down—the money in this chain is cashing out.

Micron, Dell, and Hewlett Packard Enterprise all fell today. Western Digital was the only one to hold up, gaining 0.13%, while the semiconductor ETF fell 2.05% overall.

The drag came from server systems, pulling storage down with them.

All the moving averages are overhead and trending down. The price is not far above its monthly low, and is still about halfway below its monthly high.

Today's bearish candle left 10.80 overhead.

If it can't close back above 10.80, the path of grinding lower remains unchanged;

if it does close above, the losses on this leg down will have to be reassessed.

On October 20, VanEck ETFs still saw a combined net inflow of $360 million. Money hasn't left semiconductors; it just didn't flow into storage today.

Yesterday, some were calling SanDisk cheap at 17.6 times earnings.

After an 851% gain in a year, a 25.6% pullback is what made it cheap.

First, it may grind down toward the monthly low. There's still 18% of downside room to that area.

Based on its trading range since listing, the price is still more than halfway off its high.

$SNXX

$SOXL Volume doubled, while the price remains 43% below the monthly high

Trading at $96.59, down 8.57% in 24 hours

Even after falling this far, it still hasn’t found a bottom. Volume over the past three days was twice that of the previous 20 days, but even that much trading couldn’t support the price.

The entire semiconductor sector weakened today, and this moved in tandem with it. There was no separate announcement from any of its constituents.

The price is only a little over 10% above the monthly low. The two daily moving averages overhead are still far away; the price hasn’t touched either one during this downturn.

To turn upward, it first needs to break through the round-number level of 100.

If it can’t get above that level, these rebounds along the way are just pauses in the decline.

The index it tracks is heavily weighted toward a few major companies. When they all weaken together, this fund has nowhere to hide.

This has nothing to do with any one company’s earnings; the entire semiconductor chain is moving lower.

I think it will go on to test the monthly low. I don’t see the rebounds along the way as a reversal.

$SOXL

SPCX up 13% in a day: Are profits or the merger driving the rally?

Price at $166 (24h +13.58%)

The profit numbers are real, but the merger story is still up in the air. Today, the stock jumped 13 points on the story alone.

Musk himself first floated the idea, saying “a merger is a good idea.” Shareholders ran with it, putting the math for combining Tesla, SpaceXAI, and X into one group on the table.

Neither company has confirmed anything. The news is still at the “possible” stage, and the less concrete it gets, the more people try to get in early.

The third-quarter books are out: revenue of $14.58 billion, profit of $4.4 billion, and AI revenue up ninefold.

But the $19.6 billion in expenses really stands out, and institutions immediately started picking at the cost issue.

Profits look good, costs put people off, and money is being pulled in both directions.

All the daily moving averages are below the price, so they aren’t acting as resistance. The issue is that the previous high is close overhead.

Volume is up 1.7x, but the stock still hasn’t broken through the previous high. The move looks weak, so chasing it doesn’t seem worthwhile.

My expectation is that it consolidates here first. If it can’t reach the previous high, it may pull back to around 140.

140 was the platform where this move began. A drop back there would put the structure to the test; if it breaks below, this entire rally will have been for nothing.

I’m bearish on this move and won’t chase it before it breaks above the previous high.

$SPCX

$SOXL , still 48.8% below its listing high

At $105, up 10.44% in 24 hours

Volume over three days reached 2.6 times the total for the previous 20 days, while the net gain over seven days was less than 1%.

Money is changing hands back and forth, but the price is standing still. That tells you what this rebound is really worth.

The price is still below the halfway point.

Earnings season is approaching, and the semiconductor reports will be a major focus.

Leveraged ETFs don’t wait for earnings to come out; they rebalance their positions every day. A week of sideways trading, and decay comes straight out of the fund’s net asset value.

On the daily chart, the price is still a long way from those two moving averages above. This rebound hasn’t even reached the threshold.

Those two lines are sloping downward, and every inch of this rebound is giving trapped holders room to get out.

86.37 was where this bounce started, and it was also the month’s low. If it breaks below that level, everyone who jumped in today and those who bought the dip earlier will have to rethink their positions. There aren’t many orders waiting below.

This is just a technical bounce after being oversold. Don’t mistake it for a trend reversal.

Until the underlying stock turns around, this rebound is just giving sellers time to unload.

For now, I’m inclined to think it will move up to test those two moving averages. If it can’t reach them, it’ll get pushed back down, then turn around and test 86.37 again.

If it truly gets back above the moving averages, the bearish thesis is no longer valid.

$SOXL

$WLD Up 17% in two days!!!

Price at $0.589 (24h +9.32%)

I’d say today’s buying in WLD is genuine.

The bears are feeling the pressure overhead. Since the dip to last Sunday’s low, it’s rallied 17%. Buying volume only started coming in Monday night, and today’s move is basically a continuation of that buying.

Analysts are weighing in too: they like the chart, they like the coin, and they think there may be an announcement coming. Public endorsements like these usually don’t happen at the bottom, but the price hasn’t fallen, so the people making these calls are effectively going along with the buying.

Those who bought near Sunday night’s low have the most confidence now; the bears can only grit their teeth.

Funding is only slightly positive, so today’s rally isn’t overcrowded;

Open interest is still elevated. If $0.55 gives way, these positions could all rush for the exits.

My level to watch is also $0.55. That’s where Sunday’s move started. If it breaks, both today’s buyers and those who bought the dip will have to rethink their positions.

I’m still treating this as a strong market tonight.

#WLD

$MSTR $2.8 billion in passive selling hangs over Strategy’s index eligibility

Current price: $143 (24h: +2.92%)

This rebound doesn’t have staying power; volume hasn’t followed through.

Average volume over the past three days is about the same as over the prior twenty. Today’s green candle formed without any fresh money coming in. The buyers were probably mostly short-covering from those who had reduced their positions earlier; real buyers haven’t shown up yet.

The price is still below both daily moving averages, and those two lines continue to slope downward overhead.

The unresolved issue is on the index front.

MSCI is reviewing Strategy’s index eligibility. If the company is removed, passive funds that track the rules would have to sell about $2.8 billion worth of shares.

That money won’t all hit the market in a single day, but it’s part of the valuation’s foundation: passive funds care about index constituents, not the story.

The company is still buying, too. It added $22 million worth of Bitcoin over seven days, marking its fifth consecutive week of purchases. Against the company’s size, that amount looks more like a statement than enough to support the stock price.

To the downside, I’m watching $133.47, the low from the past twelve days. If the price gets there, I’ll look to see whether there’s real support. If it doesn’t hold, this daily-chart downswing isn’t over.

Unless the price moves back above both moving averages on strong volume, nothing else matters.

My view is that this rebound will probably reach the moving averages at most before getting pushed back down. We’ll likely have to revisit the area around this month’s lows.

$MSTR

$CRCL Expanded into 40 markets, but the stock fell 5 points

Price at $80.88 (24h -5.07%)

Down 5 points, but volume hasn't picked up. The volume of the last three 4-hour candles is about equal to the average of the previous twenty.

Sellers aren't piling in. The problem is on the buying side: nobody's showing up. This is the most painful kind of drop—it never gives you a panic-driven low.

Circle plans to bring USDC to 40 markets, focusing on making cross-border payments cheaper. Its confidence comes from USDC's sizable share of stablecoin transfer volume.

Expanding into new markets costs money and won't bring profits in the short term. Investors are doing a different kind of math right now.

Last week's figures: $36 trillion in annual settlement volume, and $1.4 billion in revenue in the first half of 2026. Nearly 60% went to ecosystem partners like Coinbase and Binance, leaving a net margin of just 7%.

No matter how large the transaction volume gets, only a sliver reaches shareholders. Against this kind of income statement, expansion news isn't enough to support the valuation.

The moving averages look bearish too: the short-term lines are stacked one below another, all sloping downward overhead.

There's not much in the way of buy orders waiting below to catch the fall.

$CRCL

MSCI is reviewing Strategy’s index eligibility, as it added another 267 BTC

$BTC Current price: $81,346 (24h: -1.51%)

Strategy added another 267 BTC today, but the price is still languishing around 81,345.

Institutions are buying, but the market isn’t following suit. That kind of disconnect in sentiment is worth unpacking.

Funding rates are still positive, but longs are barely putting any money down;

open interest hasn’t built up either, with both bulls and bears waiting on the sidelines.

The Strategy news becomes clearer when you break it down: it bought 267 BTC, while MSCI is reviewing its index eligibility.

The former is routine buying; the latter is the uncertainty hanging over the market. Until there’s a decision, investors would rather stay cautious.

Over on ONDO, the two timeframes are at odds, and some are warning to watch out for a liquidity sweep. That naturally makes traders more reluctant to chase.

Above, the people who got caught out around 83120 a couple of days ago are waiting to break even. If the price gets there and nobody steps in to buy, the rally is still on shaky ground;

below, 80637 is the low from the past couple of days. If the price drops there, we’ll see whether anyone is willing to buy in earnest. Volatility has already narrowed considerably, and volume is shrinking too. This kind of market wears you down.

I think the price is more likely to test the 80637 area first. Until it gets above 83120 and holds, don’t read too much into any bounce.

#BTC #币圈日常 #盘面观察

BlackRock adds protection to $BTC : is this bounce a rebound or the start of another leg down?

Currently $81,640, down 0.84% in 24h

BlackRock filed for its third Bitcoin fund today, with downside protection while retaining upside exposure to IBIT.

This structure suggests institutions are insuring their Bitcoin positions—protecting themselves while keeping some upside potential.

That’s what the market is trading today: risk assets are focused on survival, not rushing to go on the offensive.

Hyperliquid was more direct: it says the SEC’s new crypto framework has serious flaws that could devastate Web3 developers, and is calling for five changes immediately.

Regulatory friction hasn’t let up, and development costs and compliance expectations continue to pile up.

South Korea’s Financial Supervisory Service chief also came out to apologize, admitting that regulators had badly miscalculated when they aggressively promoted leveraged ETFs focused on a single stock to bring money back home.

That signals a retreat from policies favoring risky products, and retail investors are even less likely to rush back into crypto in the short term.

BTC is hovering near its two-day low today, with volume flat.

There are buy orders and stop-loss orders clustered around 80637, where buyers stepped in near the lows over the past two days. If the price breaks below that level, those buyers will have to admit they were wrong and exit, leaving little support below.

I’m leaning toward a test of this level next. Until BTC gets back above the resistance zone, I’ll treat any bounce as weak.

#BTC

$ETH Currently trading at $2,387, down 1.45% over 24 hours.

$955 million—October isn’t even over yet, and that’s how much has already been pulled from Ethereum ETFs.

Price is hovering just above the two-day low, grinding lower on thin volume.

At its core, support and resistance are simply levels created by clusters of orders.

The 2,446 level above is the high of the rebound over the past two days. The institutional money that pulled out of ETFs won’t be in a hurry to buy back above 2,446, so some holders are likely to sell as soon as the price bounces up to that level.

Near 2,327, BitMine added another 12,535 ETH last week, bringing its total holdings to 6.04 million ETH, or 4.9% of the total supply. Long-term holders like this are more likely to buy in stages after a break below support than to push the price down from here.

JPMorgan has launched its deposit token, JPM Coin, on Ethereum. Backed by dollar deposits and settling in seconds, it’s a long-term development that adds another use case to the chain—not something that has much to do with today’s half-hour of low-volume drift lower.

Bulls don’t have much conviction right now. Funding rates are only slightly positive, and open interest is unremarkable, so buying support near 2,327 probably won’t be very strong.

I’m leaning bearish for now. I won’t step in until volume picks up.

Let’s see if price can get above 2,446.

#ETH