灯塔说

Important Announcement:
The market analysis and investment recommendations provided in this plaza are based solely on publicly available information and professional judgment, and do not constitute any guarantee of returns or assurance of principal safety.
Investing involves risk; decisions should be made carefully. Please assess your own risk tolerance and financial situation prudently, and assume responsibility for any related investment risks.
Note: All content on this plaza is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.
——Lighthouse Says. For business cooperation (copy-trading), please DM.

Partly True

Trump today, in Beijing time, rejected Iran’s seven conditions
and said he would continue bombing after the midterm elections

Crude oil quickly rebounded to $96.7

This comes from information disclosed by an internal official; it has not yet been confirmed by Trump personally

But that doesn’t mean things will keep deteriorating—this is only an initial pressure test by both sides

The key to this game is Iran’s economic ability to withstand pressure and the U.S. voters’ ability to bear the costs—who will force leaders to adjust their conditions first.

The outcome may not happen quickly, but it’s going to be a prolonged battle

In the swing trading, look for selling into highs to match the expected market scenario

$CL

The crude oil rebound is an opportunity

I already reminded you to enter the market again yesterday

The expectation from here is for things to develop positively

My earnings have been on a roller coaster, but the 85-83 target remains unchanged!

$CL

灯塔说

Crude oil and big pancakes: both go long and short, and let’s take a big bite
This comes from accurate judgment behind the price action

Crude oil: the forecast was fueled by speculation after negotiation news came out for several days

Big pancake: the forecast is based on the adjustment after the high-level pull-up showed weakness
$CL $BTC

Simply put: $BTC

During yesterday’s BTC突破 85K, the market saw about $750 million in positions liquidated, of which around $648 million were short positions

That’s also why the price surged so fast

If this rally was driven by short liquidations, then breaking to new highs again to 90K would require more long positions buying in

Unless the price pulls back or ranges sideways at high levels to push up OI and increase buy-side demand.

This is not a warning to short

In the short term, watch around 84.6k for signs of a bounce and then look to go long again.

In terms of the trend: on the daily chart, below the 95–97K range, for now I’m only looking for a rebound. But the rebound profits have been very substantial, and it has also pulled some altcoins along—those who bravely bought the dip have already started to make money.

Lately, I’ve been feeling more and more that,

when people talk about “de-dollarization,”

they often ask the wrong question.

Everyone keeps asking:

Who can replace the U.S. dollar?

But what may be truly worth paying attention to is,

that more and more countries are starting to think:

If one day I can no longer use the dollar, can I still do business normally?

The renminbi doesn’t need to become the next dollar.

And CIPS doesn’t need to defeat SWIFT.

As long as more and more countries have a second option,

the biggest advantage of the U.S. financial system—

“you have no other choice”

has already begun to loosen.

And what really changes a system is often not that the old one suddenly collapses.

It’s that people begin to have a second choice.$CL $XAU

XAU-0.02%

In what situations would scenarios occur where the large coin, gold, and crude oil all pull back at the same time?
$BTC $XAU $CL

Jump like a pro:
In this round, the high point of $BTC should reach 95-97K
Along the way, 72-73K is a pullback low point

82K
Breakthrough means directly reaching 84K
The market is moving in a very good direction
$BTC

灯塔说

Jump like a pro:
In this round, the high point of $BTC should reach 95-97K
Along the way, 72-73K is a pullback low point

Yesterday I went short on crude oil after hours
and today it feels great

But I want to say this is just the beginning $CL

灯塔说

The expected crude oil price trend has begun

Over these few days, I’ve come to realize that you can only profit if you dare to start positions before the expected trend plays out
Otherwise, once it’s realized, you’ll be left holding the bag

So, for crude oil, you can only make expectations based on the news

If this round of talks goes smoothly, then the current drop is only just the beginning

Calm down and focus on your own trading!

For gold, wait for opportunities to go long; right now it’s in the lower half of a volatile range.
$CL $XAU

Trump has spoken—there’s no exclusion of talks
On Wednesday, he will meet with the Iranian president at the United Nations General Assembly
This is a great dialogue within the framework of an international conference

When oil prices come down, it’s good for everything

The crypto market is looking up!
If the big coin breaks 82,500, it can surge straight to 85K

Last time, I said the main goal was 95–97K

The key is that altcoin season is coming. Now, only some of the best coins have seen the biggest rise of just 3x, and some big coins haven’t even started yet!

In one sentence: embrace the long-term trend—buy the pullbacks!
$CL $XAU $BTC

XAU-0.02%

Crude oil has news
Maybe good news
Trump will probably take advantage of this window before the midterm elections

This is also good news for big bread

Crude oil is already empty
$CL

Crude oil has news
Maybe good news
Trump will probably take advantage of this window before the midterm elections

This is also good news for big bread

Crude oil is already empty
$CL

Lately I’ve been increasingly thinking that what this war has truly changed may not be just oil prices.
In the past, whether a country had energy security depended on whether there was oil underground.
In the future, it may depend on this too: whether the country can continue to function normally after it no longer relies on oil.
If a war can cause a country that imports tens of millions of barrels of crude oil every day to suddenly cut those imports by several million barrels, yet the economy does not grind to a halt—then electrification is no longer merely an industrial upgrade.
It becomes a kind of—
geostrategic defensive capability.
And in the next round of national competition, what countries truly compete for may not only be:
who controls the oil fields.
But rather—
who has the ability to “get off” oil fields.

This market is about to slowly squeeze a round of short sellers.
$BTC

Let me share my view: Last night the rate hike was implemented—25 bps, in line with expectations. After the announcement, the market didn’t see much volatility. There was a prior expectation of a drop, which is why I exited earlier in the 79–75K area, but last night BTC was able to hold above 75K even with Vosh’s (Waller’s) more hawkish press conference tone. This suggests BTC has relatively better downside resilience, but that is only in the short term. Looking ahead: in September, another 25 bps rate hike is expected. Based on current conditions, the matrix suggests there will be at least one more hike this year. Out of 18 officials, 16 gave this expectation. In his remarks, Vosh also said that the current U.S. economy is strong, and rate hikes won’t affect the economy. Inflation has been too high for too long, and overall his tone was hawkish. As of now, the probability of a rate hike by October is around 50%. Under the current environment, the near-term market is more likely to trade sideways. Bulls need to wait for a clearer positive catalyst. If in late September geopolitical tensions ease, oil prices fall, and things improve in October, that would be better—but we don’t have those signals yet. For the current $BTC 行情, it’s trading range-bound. 75K is holding. Near-term resistance is at 77,300 and 78,400. Going forward, we should also pay close attention to the bond market. If 2Y and 10Y yields continue rising, and the 10Y stays above 5%, BTC will likely struggle to hold above 77K. Then we should be careful for a move down toward 75K–73K. Conversely, if 10Y yields start to fall and are suppressed back below 5%, and BTC re-establishes above 77K, you can continue to look for bearish pressure squeezing prices up toward 78–79K. As for $XAU , the 4-hour chart is still in a downward correction phase. It currently doesn’t have the conditions for bottom-picking. Watch the watershed around 4380. For $CL , watch news on geopolitical developments. Once there’s information about negotiations or a resolution, go short decisively—nobody likes high oil prices.

Let me share my view:
Last night the rate hike was implemented—25 bps, in line with expectations. After the announcement, the market didn’t see much volatility. There was a prior expectation of a drop, which is why I exited earlier in the 79–75K area, but last night BTC was able to hold above 75K even with Vosh’s (Waller’s) more hawkish press conference tone. This suggests BTC has relatively better downside resilience, but that is only in the short term.

Looking ahead: in September, another 25 bps rate hike is expected. Based on current conditions, the matrix suggests there will be at least one more hike this year. Out of 18 officials, 16 gave this expectation. In his remarks, Vosh also said that the current U.S. economy is strong, and rate hikes won’t affect the economy. Inflation has been too high for too long, and overall his tone was hawkish. As of now, the probability of a rate hike by October is around 50%.

Under the current environment, the near-term market is more likely to trade sideways. Bulls need to wait for a clearer positive catalyst. If in late September geopolitical tensions ease, oil prices fall, and things improve in October, that would be better—but we don’t have those signals yet.

For the current $BTC 行情, it’s trading range-bound. 75K is holding. Near-term resistance is at 77,300 and 78,400. Going forward, we should also pay close attention to the bond market. If 2Y and 10Y yields continue rising, and the 10Y stays above 5%, BTC will likely struggle to hold above 77K. Then we should be careful for a move down toward 75K–73K. Conversely, if 10Y yields start to fall and are suppressed back below 5%, and BTC re-establishes above 77K, you can continue to look for bearish pressure squeezing prices up toward 78–79K.

As for $XAU , the 4-hour chart is still in a downward correction phase. It currently doesn’t have the conditions for bottom-picking. Watch the watershed around 4380.

For $CL , watch news on geopolitical developments. Once there’s information about negotiations or a resolution, go short decisively—nobody likes high oil prices.

灯塔说

Don't disappoint the interest rate decision tonight.
Previous value 3.75%, expected 4% (a 25 BP hike)
No matter how it's announced, it will either meet expectations or be below expectations.
The bearish market has already dropped as much as it should.

If the remarks after the Fed are dovish, then it's the script of a rebound after the needle.
Otherwise, the downtrend will continue! $BTC $XAU

Verified

Partly True

The market’s expectations for future rate hikes may be too high.

Currently, the market expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise rates four times over the next year, by 25 basis points each time, bringing the rate to about 4.6%. Rising energy prices have sparked concerns about inflation.

Traders also expect the European Central Bank to reach 3.25% and the Bank of England to reach 4.75%.

A Reuters view analysis suggests that market expectations may already be excessive, since potential inflation remains relatively manageable, and high energy prices are more likely to weaken economic growth than trigger persistent inflation.

灯塔说

Even if rates are raised tonight

At this position and timing, can you still bring yourself to chase short?$BTC

Even if rates are raised tonight

At this position and timing, can you still bring yourself to chase short?$BTC

Verified

Yesterday, BTC fell to 74,913 at one point due to a spike in U.S. Treasury yields and the failure of the U.S. Senate to advance the CLARITY Act through a procedural vote. It then rebounded by 76K. The target is consolidation around 75,800.

At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on September 17, the FOMC interest rate decision will be released, followed by a press conference at 2:30. Also included are economic projections and the dot plot. As of today, the interest-rate futures market has already priced in roughly 92% odds of a 25bp rate hike. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly broke back above 5% during the day. The market is no longer trading the question of “whether there will be a rate hike,” but rather “whether there will be more hikes after the hike.” Therefore, Chair Powell’s remarks and the dot plot are crucial.

If later there is a 25bp hike, but Powell does not signal further consecutive hikes, then the current drop may have already completed the repricing of rate-hike expectations.

Conversely, if Powell continues to emphasize hawkishness to bring down inflation and the dot plot also suggests expectations for further hikes, then the market will enter a “rate-hiking cycle,” and the decline could continue.

So tonight is still relatively complex—we’ll need to wait for Powell’s guidance on the tone.
$BTC $XAU

XAU-0.02%

It seems a rate hike is really coming after all
The market broke below 76K early—once the rate hike is implemented, will it still keep falling?
$BTC

灯塔说

A new week begins, and this week’s key focus is the interest rate decision meeting.
At present, most major institutions have concluded that this meeting will result in a rate hike, and the market is also trading according to these expectations. The current conditions show that the probability of a rate hike is steadily rising, but there are also many conditions that would prevent a hike.
Now the pressure is on the Fed. I previously expected the Fed to withstand the pressure, but this time both the oil price and the two forward-looking data releases lean toward a rate-hike expectation, so I’m starting to wonder whether the Fed might actually raise rates this time.
However, there are several scenarios for a rate hike, and both the announcement of the rate-hike decision and the remarks during the subsequent press conference will have a major impact.

If the Fed truly raises rates by 25 basis points in September, but downplays the possibility of continued hikes afterward, then the downside move that has been priced in early may be limited, and the room for a further pullback would be narrow.

If, after raising rates by 25 basis points, the Fed further reinforces expectations of ongoing tightening, then the market could face persistent downward pressure.

On the contrary, if the Fed withstands the pressure and keeps the interest rate unchanged, the market may rebound. But if, at the press conference, the tone is hawkish and it emphasizes that subsequent hikes could be delayed, that would also affect the market. Still, I think this probability is too low. If they don’t hike in September, then they certainly won’t in October either (even though oil prices surged in September).

So, based on the above and in combination with the market outlook, the probability of a bottoming-and-rebound versus sustained decline is 6:4. I’m more inclined to look for opportunities around the lows for a range/bottoming play. I believe the Fed should maintain its stance—hawkish in words but unchanged in action.
$BTC